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The Miami Draft Pick Could be Top 8


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Looking at the rest of Miami's schedule, how many more wins do you think they'll have (regardless of if/when Tua returns)?  I give them at least 3 more (split with Jets, Jags, Houston) and at most 6 more...which would make for an at-worst record of 4-13 or hopefully an at-best record of 7-10 (or somewhere in between).  4-13 would def = top 5 - 8.  7-10 will probably equate to around pick 10-13.

Wouldn't that be something if Miami just completely fell apart and ended up somewhere between 1-16 and 3-14?  Unfortunately I think Flores is too good of a coach to let them fall apart that bad.

@Tampa - L
vs. Jags - W
vs. Falcons - L (but could be a W)
@Buffalo - L
vs. Houston - W
vs. Baltimore - L
@Jets - L (but could be a W)
vs. Panthers - L
vs. Giants - L (but could be a W)
vs. Jets - W 
@Saints - L
@Titans - L
vs. Patriots - L

What say you?

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It's amazing to think that we could end up with three top-10 picks this offseason.

And it's sad to think that Howie will still be responsible for the draft.

Dear lord, we haven't drafted a great defensive player since Fletcher Cox...nine years ago.

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Hopefully, Wentz stays healthy and the colts stumble and bumble this year.   3 first round draft picks could go a long way into fixing the defense unless Howie sh--s the bed.

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Good: high picks
Bad: Howie is the one making the picks
Good: Howie less likely to screw up the higher the pick
Bad: there's no chance Howie uses all his picks, he'll trade up/down or to another team for a player

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26 minutes ago, Philthy Jawn said:

It's amazing to think that we could end up with three top-10 picks this offseason.
 

If that were to happen, id LOVE to see Howie do something like this..  Lets assume we have picks 4,7, and 9. 

Pick BPA at 4 

If there isnt an absolute must take at #7, trade into the low teens and pick up a 2023 1st

Pick 9, do the exact same thing as pick 7.  If a MUST TAKE is there, do it. If not, trade into the teens and pick up another 2023 1st.

 

rinse/repeat for 2023..  Keep trying to have 2-3   1st round picks for several years....  

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1 hour ago, What The F said:

If that were to happen, id LOVE to see Howie do something like this..  Lets assume we have picks 4,7, and 9. 

Pick BPA at 4 

If there isnt an absolute must take at #7, trade into the low teens and pick up a 2023 1st

Pick 9, do the exact same thing as pick 7.  If a MUST TAKE is there, do it. If not, trade into the teens and pick up another 2023 1st.

 

rinse/repeat for 2023..  Keep trying to have 2-3   1st round picks for several years....  

Draft pick factory?

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1 hour ago, What The F said:

If that were to happen, id LOVE to see Howie do something like this..  Lets assume we have picks 4,7, and 9. 

Pick BPA at 4 

If there isnt an absolute must take at #7, trade into the low teens and pick up a 2023 1st

Pick 9, do the exact same thing as pick 7.  If a MUST TAKE is there, do it. If not, trade into the teens and pick up another 2023 1st.

 

rinse/repeat for 2023..  Keep trying to have 2-3   1st round picks for several years....  

Keep pushing them mofos down the line for when Howie gets canned and a real GM can make the selections.  :lol:

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It's a shame the Patriots blew that game in Week 1.

There's a part of me that wishes we had made that trade the Giants did with the Bears. 4 high first round draft picks would be one heck of a fun draft to watch!

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Howie the deal-maker has delivered once again.

Howie the talent picker gives me anxiety.

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Might be too generous with your Ls. 

 

They should be able to beat Atlanta, Jets and Giants. 

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1 hour ago, Bacarty2 said:

we wont get 3 top 10.

1) the Colts will bench him or "sit him" to make sure it doesnt hit the 75% 

2) The colts will be good enough to keep playing him and ends up slipping to a 20ish. 

The Colts pick is very unlikely to be top 5, but top 10?  That is certainly possible.

The Colts would have to pull the plug on Wentz by game 13 to avoid the 1st round upgrade.  Their division is very weak, with 2-2 TEN, 1-3 HOU and 0-4 JAC.  It is not hard to imagine them being in the thick of the playoff race at 5-7 or 6-6.  Would they really pull Wentz for Jacob Eason for their 13th game against Houston if they were within a game of the division lead?  I don't see it.  And from there it's not hard to imagine them ending up at 6-11 or 7-10 -- 6-11 would certainly be top 10 (the 10th pick last year went 6-10) and 7-10 might do it too.

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3 hours ago, What The F said:

If that were to happen, id LOVE to see Howie do something like this..  Lets assume we have picks 4,7, and 9. 

Pick BPA at 4 

If there isnt an absolute must take at #7, trade into the low teens and pick up a 2023 1st

Pick 9, do the exact same thing as pick 7.  If a MUST TAKE is there, do it. If not, trade into the teens and pick up another 2023 1st.

 

rinse/repeat for 2023..  Keep trying to have 2-3   1st round picks for several years....  

 

1 hour ago, D-Shiznit said:

Howie the deal-maker has delivered once again.

Howie the talent picker gives me anxiety.

This is a completely fair assessment of Howie.

His drafting isn’t as bad as some make out…., but it is bad.

His deal making and negotiations are strong however. The move with Miami was incredible. The Steve Nelson deal was good as well.

I’d love to see us have 3 top 15 picks, use 2 and trade down with one to get an extra first next year.

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26 minutes ago, BayAreaLennie said:

The Colts pick is very unlikely to be top 5, but top 10?  That is certainly possible.

The Colts would have to pull the plug on Wentz by game 13 to avoid the 1st round upgrade.  Their division is very weak, with 2-2 TEN, 1-3 HOU and 0-4 JAC.  It is not hard to imagine them being in the thick of the playoff race at 5-7 or 6-6.  Would they really pull Wentz for Jacob Eason for their 13th game against Houston if they were within a game of the division lead?  I don't see it.  And from there it's not hard to imagine them ending up at 6-11 or 7-10 -- 6-11 would certainly be top 10 (the 10th pick last year went 6-10) and 7-10 might do it too.

 

6 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

no it's not. Top 10 means theyre out of the playoff picture in November. more than enough time to sit Wentz. 

I think too 10 is definitely possible. If the Colts are 5-7 and the Titans are 7-5 for example they have to keep playing him if they think he is their best option.

E What "Hurts” us is that the Colts’s schedule is tough early and easier later. Would have been better the other way around.

What helps us is Wentz’s sensitivity. He will be reluctant to give a backup 5-6 games in case he pulls a Foles. It’s Reich’s decision but if he thinks Wentz is the guy he may be reluctant to bench him.

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2 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

no it's not. Top 10 means theyre out of the playoff picture in November. more than enough time to sit Wentz. 

What makes you so sure the Colts are going to be out of the playoff picture in November when they are in a division with 0-4 Jacksonville, 1-3 Houston (who just lost 40-0 and whose only win came against 0-4 Jacksonville), and a 2-2 Tennessee team that has games against the Bills, Chiefs, Rams and Saints before the end of November?

The Colts could easily have a weak record and be in the thick of the division race -- the Eagles got the *6th* pick last year with a 4-11-1 record and would have made the playoffs if they won their last 2 games.  That is the kind of division the AFC South is this year - the rest of the division is 1-7 outside the division.

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7 minutes ago, ManchesterEagle said:

What "Hurts” us is that the Colts’s schedule is tough early and easier later. Would have been better the other way around.

It's not that easy late -- games 14-17 include 4-0 Arizona, 3-1 Las Vegas and a New England team that Belichick will undoubtedly have playing pretty well by then.  And I actually like Houston being game 13 -- if they are within even 2 games of the division lead, there will be a strong incentive to play Wentz in a very winnable game.

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23 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

no it's not. Top 10 means theyre out of the playoff picture in November. more than enough time to sit Wentz. 

the Colts could be at .500 at the end of November and then lose a lot in December.

It's very easy to see a scenario where Wentz gets 75% and the Colts have a 6-11 record.

But, not thinking about it too much is probably best.

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2 minutes ago, BayAreaLennie said:

It's not that easy late -- games 14-17 include 4-0 Arizona, 3-1 Las Vegas and a New England team that Belichick will undoubtedly have playing pretty well by then.  And I actually like Houston being game 13 -- if they are within even 2 games of the division lead, there will be a strong incentive to play Wentz in a very winnable game.

Fair play - I hadn’t looked since before the season. Arizona and Vegas are much better than predicted. 

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2 minutes ago, Random Reglar said:

the Colts could be at .500 at the end of November and then lose a lot in December.

It's very easy to see a scenario where Wentz gets 75% and the Colts have a 6-11 record.

But, not thinking about it too much is probably best.

What I love about Miami is that we can just hope they lose every week unconditionally.

With the Colts we kind of want them to lose, but not too much before Wentz hits the minimum.

 

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4 hours ago, Philthy Jawn said:

It's amazing to think that we could end up with three top-10 picks this offseason.

And it's sad to think that Howie will still be responsible for the draft.

Dear lord, we haven't drafted a great defensive player since Fletcher Cox...nine years ago.

So you’re saying the ideal scenario is for the Eagles to lose out the rest of the way, resulting in Howie being fired so a new GM gets to use those picks. 

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14 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

So heres your options

!) Colts are out of playoff contention, they bench Wentz, our first becomes a 2nd rounder between 35 and 45

2) Colts are in the playoff hunt, they keep playing Wentz, we get 16-20ish

3) Coldts make playoffs and we get the 20-25 range. 

 

I will bet whatever dollar you what that the colts WILL NOT ALLOW US TO HAVE A TOP 12

You're just wrong about the range in item 2 -- as explained already, the Colts could easily be in the playoff hunt with a mediocre record, keep playing Wentz, crater at the end of the season, and end up giving up a top 10-12 pick.  The odds are certainly not better than 50-50, but if you are not seeing that path it is because you refuse to see it, not because it is not there.

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3 minutes ago, BayAreaLennie said:

You're just wrong about item 2 -- as explained already, the Colts could easily be in the playoff hunt with a mediocre record, keep playing Wentz, crater at the end of the season, and end up giving up a top 10-12 pick.  The odds are certainly not better than 50-50, but if you are not seeing that path it is because you refuse to see it, not because it is not there.

Indeed.  The division is 4-12 at the moment.  And people say the NFCE is weak ... for comparison purposes, it is 7-9.  

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Yeah I'm not sure Miami are going to pick up too many more wins. I'm not sure Tua is much of an upgrade at this point on Brissett is he?

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1 minute ago, time2rock said:

Indeed.  The division is 4-12 at the moment.  And people say the NFCE is weak ... for comparison purposes, it is 7-9.  

Yep, and 2 of those wins are intra-division.  They are 2-10 against the rest of the NFL.

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