50 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Here are the companies pulling back from Russia

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/business/companies-pulling-back-russia-ukraine-war-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Boeing, Apple, Visa, the list is long.

All thoroughly calculated and perfectly rational, exactly as Putin planned!

Just now, Thrive said:

Inconceivable! Aren’t you a fan of Batman?

apparently Robert Pattison actually makes a pretty good one. who knew? 

7 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

 

He is such an amazing piece of dog poo

5 minutes ago, Thrive said:

Inconceivable! Aren’t you a fan of Batman?

In Gotham?

 

Sure, that place is a cesspool.

complete and utter fantasy, but after altering my mind with some THC to watch the SOTU last night I had a thought: what if at some point Belarus decided to just backstab Russia, and had all its forces turn on them in coordination with Ukraine. 

like I said 100% not going to happen, but it sure would be something to see.

 

I have no idea what this would mean for Russia. @vikas83 ?

their debt to GDP is like 20%, which seems pretty low. and their credit rating is trashed anyway so I don't know how much a default would impact them at this stage. but very much out of my area of expertise.

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

I have no idea what this would mean for Russia. @vikas83 ?

their debt to GDP is like 20%, which seems pretty low. and their credit rating is trashed anyway so I don't know how much a default would impact them at this stage. but very much out of my area of expertise.

I hear they have massive cash reserves. Although, this might just be talk, and the massive cash is solely in the pockets of Vlad and his Oligarch pals.

 

Which, in my mind, seems the most likely.

1 minute ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

I have no idea what this would mean for Russia. @vikas83 ?

their debt to GDP is like 20%, which seems pretty low. and their credit rating is trashed anyway so I don't know how much a default would impact them at this stage. but very much out of my area of expertise.

And who is going to try to enforce their claim to payments from Russia anyway? Especially with Putin waiving nukes around like a handgun?

Unlike Argentina, would think a default is the least of Russia’s concerns right now.

1 minute ago, Toastrel said:

I hear they have massive cash reserves. Although, this might just be talk, and the massive cash is solely in the pockets of Vlad and his Oligarch pals.

 

Which, in my mind, seems the most likely.

They did but read that half of their reserves got frozen this week.

I read a foreign language report where Russia's demands are recognition of the breakaway 2 Russian speaking eastern provinces as part of Russia, recognition of the annexation of Crimea, and Ukraine's commitment not to seek nukes in the future.

7 minutes ago, Thrive said:

And who is going to try to enforce their claim to payments from Russia anyway? Especially with Putin waiving nukes around like a handgun?

Unlike Argentina, would think a default is the least of Russia’s concerns right now.

This is where it's hard for me to understand, given Russia's position, what a default would mean.

For the US, as the worlds reserve currency, it would be catastrophically bad. But for Russia? It's not like they're going to have an easy time raising cash as it is.

I feel like it's the difference between someone having a credit score of 350 and 300. I mean, yeah one is probably worse, but your terms and ability to borrow are probably not going to change much.

1 minute ago, Thrive said:

And who is going to try to enforce their claim to payments from Russia anyway? Especially with Putin waiving nukes around like a handgun?

Unlike Argentina, would think a default is the least of Russia’s concerns right now.

They did but read that half of their reserves got frozen this week.

As with all the news from there, it is hard to say what is real and what is disinformation, by one side or the other. The best always seems reasonable enough.

Even if they have it, will they use it? Chances are, they oligarchs are not suffering.

 

haven't seen Abra around to defend these sorts of things. maybe his rubles dried up and his job at the troll factory didn't look as worthwhile?

Just now, Bacarty2 said:

an approximate  cost of 20Billion dollars a day to have this war, it's hemorrhaging  

wasn't this disproven as some sort of mistranslation? I think it was 20B rubles / day, which would be more like $200m/day. seems closer to the mark, given how little they're paying the conscripts. though replacing the cost of lost hardware is going to significantly increase the costs over original projections.

I flipped on the TV last night, and there was some weirdo in a mask (COVID thing?) who set off explosions all over Gotham, trapping the entire police force in tunnels underground.

Seriously? There was one old cop, and a young buck left up top, and no sign of Batman.

 

1 hour ago, Thrive said:

 

Another reminder: please live your lives trying not to mess with Ukrainians.

 

4 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

They were close to a trillion dollars when all this went down. 

BUT, with some of it being frozen, some of it not being able to used any where and an approximate  cost of 20Billion dollars a day to have this war, it's hemorrhaging  

They have massive stockpiles of arms, they won't run out of bullets any time soon. Being an oil exporter solves a lot of their energy issues, although it sounds like they are already having supply issues.

 

WTF are the Russians doing? Why not control the air, then invade? What is the game plan? It feels like I am missing a giant puzzle piece.

7 minutes ago, Procus said:

I read a foreign language report where Russia's demands are recognition of the breakaway 2 Russian speaking eastern provinces as part of Russia, recognition of the annexation of Crimea, and Ukraine's commitment not to seek nukes in the future.

Previously I would have said no to this, but I think this could be agreed to.  Then, the rest of Ukraine is fast tracked into NATO.  End of story.

for the hell of it, I tried to take a quick look at contrasting Russian losses in Afghanistan vs Ukraine.

They're kind of surprising.

Here's my source for Ukraine: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293424/russia-s-loss-in-the-war-in-ukraine-by-type/

And I used Wikipedia for Afghanistan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet–Afghan_War

Numbers are of course a bit arguable. but if they're even remotely true, the losses Russia sustained in a week really are staggering.

Ukraine:

 

 

Afghanistan:

 

 

Afghan losses were certainly more. But not nearly as much more as you'd think. The cost of Afghanistan in rubles was much higher of course because it was a 10 year war, and that's where it really became a consistent drain on the ability to pay for the war. But still ...

1 hour ago, 20dawk4life said:

They already have warm water ports. Ukraine is there buffer zone that wasn’t going to join NATO. What food? Sunflower seeds? Russia already has access to all the seas Ukraine does. This will be a net loss for Russia. Congratulations you picked up more sea ports that lead to Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria while not being able to trade with them. Genius move!!!

And they have more now.

Putin wasn’t convinced Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO and they’d rather control the pathway to their country and capital.

Ukraine is one of the largest producers of wheat in the world. It’s the breadbasket of Europe.

Again, Putin does not subscribe to the western Atlanticist mindset that values trade so highly. This is more about national security for him.

His goals are imperialistic, not anything to do with western neo-liberalism. In that context, he’s achieving his aims.

10 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

 

haven't seen Abra around to defend these sorts of things. maybe his rubles dried up and his job at the troll factory didn't look as worthwhile?

They scared

3 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Of course it is. My point was that Dugin never advocated a position that involved invading the whole of Ukraine or annexing it entirely by military conquest.

These are his words from 2014:

The USA and NATO countries will support by all means the Westerns and the Kiev junta. But in reality this strategy will only worsen the situation. The essence of the problem lays here: if Russia intervenes in the affairs of the [Western Ukraine] State whose population (the majority) regard this intervention as illegitimate, the position of the USA and NATO States would be natural and well founded. But in this situation the population of the East and South of Ukraine welcomes Russia, waits for it, pleads for Russia to come. There is a kind of civil war in Ukraine now. Russia openly supports the East and South. The USA and NATO back the West. The Westerns are trying to get all Ukraine to affirm that not all the population of the East and South is happy with Russia. This is quite true. Also true is that not all of the population of the West is happy with Right Sector, Bandera, Shukhevich and the rule of tycoons. So if Russia would invade the Western parts of Ukraine or Kiev that could be considered as a kind of illegitimate aggression. But the same aggression is in present circumstances the position of the USA that strives to help the Kiev junta take the control of the East and South. It is perceived as an illegitimate act of aggression and it will provoke fierce resistance.

 

I’m not sure what your point is? Dugin is a political theorist. His framework of the Eurasian empire is something shared by Putin, but Dugin isn’t a decision maker.

9 minutes ago, barho said:

Previously I would have said no to this, but I think this could be agreed to.  Then, the rest of Ukraine is fast tracked into NATO.  End of story.

Russia will not agree to Ukraine's admission into NATO, and NATO shouldn't either.

4 minutes ago, TEW said:

And they have more now.

Putin wasn’t convinced Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO and they’d rather control the pathway to their country and capital.

Ukraine is one of the largest producers of wheat in the world. It’s the breadbasket of Europe.

Again, Putin does not subscribe to the western Atlanticist mindset that values trade so highly. This is more about national security for him.

His goals are imperialistic, not anything to do with western neo-liberalism. In that context, he’s achieving his aims.

Did you go to school with Tucker? One can almost hear how hard he makes you.