March 17, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, TEW said: It is literally their doctrine to go nuclear. Not only is it not next to zero, it is probable. Of course it's next to zero. If we go into Ukraine there's absolutely no chance Putin commits suicide via nuke. If we were invading Russia then the equation changes obviously, but we're not doing that.
March 17, 20223 yr 18 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said: to be clear @ToastJenkinsyou were speaking about the ukraine conducting the counter attacks, not the U.S. ? Nope, the US.
March 17, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, VanHammersly said: Of course it's next to zero. If we go into Ukraine there's absolutely no chance Putin commits suicide via nuke. If we were invading Russia then the equation changes obviously, but we're not doing that. Eh...you're ascribing rationality to a person who is showing a complete lack of it lately. We are playing this just right, IMO. Keep arming the Ukrainians but avoid the direct conflict of NATO soldiers with Russian soldiers. I was disappointed we didn't do the aircraft deal with the Poles, but other than that, this has been an effective strategy.
March 17, 20223 yr 38 minutes ago, vikas83 said: Eh...you're ascribing rationality to a person who is showing a complete lack of it lately. We are playing this just right, IMO. Keep arming the Ukrainians but avoid the direct conflict of NATO soldiers with Russian soldiers. I was disappointed we didn't do the aircraft deal with the Poles, but other than that, this has been an effective strategy. If he's not in any direct threat there's just no chance he ends his life and the life of his children by deploying a nuke. Hitler didn't put a gun in his mouth until he was thoroughly beaten. It really doesn't matter how irrational he's been acting, self-preservation supersedes it. Like I said, once his actual life/power is in real danger, then the deck gets reshuffled, but our presence in Ukraine doesn't threaten him personally.
March 17, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: Of course it's next to zero. If we go into Ukraine there's absolutely no chance Putin commits suicide via nuke. If we were invading Russia then the equation changes obviously, but we're not doing that. I'd like to agree with this. but one factor remains. Putin is a mad man. Thinking he can restrain himself from using nuclear weapons is taking a big risk.
March 17, 20223 yr 13 minutes ago, vikas83 said: Eh...you're ascribing rationality to a person who is showing a complete lack of it lately. We are playing this just right, IMO. Keep arming the Ukrainians but avoid the direct conflict of NATO soldiers with Russian soldiers. I was disappointed we didn't do the aircraft deal with the Poles, but other than that, this has been an effective strategy. This is why I believe the US interdicting the airspace is only going to make things worse, not just for Ukraine.
March 17, 20223 yr 19 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: Of course it's next to zero. If we go into Ukraine there's absolutely no chance Putin commits suicide via nuke. If we were invading Russia then the equation changes obviously, but we're not doing that. There is a VERY high chance Putin goes nuclear. Even if they just detonate a nuke in a remote location as a form of deterrence, it will immediately cause global panic and send financial markets into turmoil. This is not a situation to take risk even if your assessment of the risk were accurate, which it isn’t.
March 17, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, Toastrel said: Nope, the US. Yeah, no thanks. I was under the impression this entire conversation about counter offensives assumed it would be Ukraine conducting those operations.
March 17, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, TEW said: There is a VERY high chance Putin goes nuclear. Even if they just detonate a nuke in a remote location as a form of deterrence, it will immediately cause global panic and send financial markets into turmoil. This is not a situation to take risk even if your assessment of the risk were accurate, which it isn’t. That is one opinion.
March 17, 20223 yr 50 minutes ago, VanHammersly said: The reward is a lot more than that. It would likely be the difference in who wins and whether or not Putin is contained (not to mention the Ukranian lives saved in the process). And that risk is vastly overstated. but unintelligent people are horrible at judging risk and tend to focus on the rare outcomes 47 minutes ago, Alpha_TATEr said: to be clear @ToastJenkinsyou were speaking about the ukraine conducting the counter attacks, not the U.S. ? Ideally but i am willing to use our air firepower if thats what it takes
March 17, 20223 yr 41 minutes ago, TEW said: Well, not "us” from his perspective. He’s not going to fight Ivan himself, of course. That’ll be someone else getting their limbs blown apart. Lets be real you care about your investments getting blown apart bleeding heart that you are and all… this is what me build the technology and firepower for. To crush evil opponents
March 17, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said: Ideally but i am willing to use our air firepower if thats what it takes i'd rather we stay out of it. if the ukraine counters and starts inflicting real damages to the point that some of the russian troops have to retreat and regroup, i think that will really hurt their morale and maybe we start seeing cracks.
March 17, 20223 yr 44 minutes ago, TEW said: It is literally their doctrine to go nuclear. Not only is it not next to zero, it is probable. Thats moronic
March 17, 20223 yr 1 hour ago, Procus said: Amazing how now those calling for peace are "right wing" No but cowardly appeasers sure are.
March 17, 20223 yr 47 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said: "To preserve the American way of life? I’m willing to take that risk.”
March 17, 20223 yr "Rational" people still think that Putin thinks like they do. He's demonstrated time and again that the red lines that he won't cross are far different from others. He poisoned an opera house full of hostages to take out the terrorists resulting in the death of over 100 hostages. His forces participated in the bombing of Aleppo resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths. His troops relentlessly bombed Grozny resulting in at least 5000 civilian deaths. He does not share our sense of perspective or moderation and if he feels threatened, he's demonstrated that there's nothing he won't do. Gambling that he won't resort to nukes, and mocking those who don't agree is extremely reckless and irresponsible.
March 17, 20223 yr 22 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said: And that risk is vastly overstated. but unintelligent people are horrible at judging risk and tend to focus on the rare outcomes Ideally but i am willing to use our air firepower if thats what it takes In any risk equation you need to overly weight the rare but also extremely devastating consequences.
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