22 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Of course, we have to keep in mind is whose No. 1 you’re trading for. 

Would Howie have taken that deal from Green Bay or Tampa Bay? I’m not so sure. In that case you likely need an injury at QB to get a palatable first round pick to wait on. 

Meanwhile, the Saints probably will be competitive. I don’t see them bottoming out because they didn’t in 2021 when a lot of things went wrong, but it’s not out of the question either. What he better odds of happening? The Saints’ pick is say 24 or the pick is top 12?

Splitting the difference, if it's in the high teens again, we clearly lost value. At 12, it's basically a wash. That's the floor for it to be mediocre, not the ceiling for it to be good.

UNC dominating this game on both sides of the ball.

Kansas missing easy layups, at least 3 so far.

Runaway train...

If the Eagles come out of the first with any two of: Johnson, Ojabo, Stingley, Williams, Wilson, Thibodeaux(pipe dream), Hamilton(also still a pipe dream IMO) I’ll be happy. And I guess with Davis too. Though not stoked by it.

25 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Of course, we have to keep in mind is whose No. 1 you’re trading for. 

Would Howie have taken that deal from Green Bay or Tampa Bay? I’m not so sure. In that case you likely need an injury at QB to get a palatable first round pick to wait on. 

Meanwhile, the Saints probably will be competitive. I don’t see them bottoming out because they didn’t in 2021 when a lot of things went wrong, but it’s not out of the question either. What he better odds of happening? The Saints’ pick is say 24 or the pick is top 12?

I think top 12 is more likely. Yeah they almost made the playoffs last season, but they really dropped off after starting ok. I think losing Payton and their beast offensive lineman, and possibly Kamara if he’s suspended, they could be pretty bad. I think depending on health there’s some variance there. But I think the potential to be bad is greater than their potential to be really good. Their QB situation is abysmal and as long as that’s the case their ceiling is low.

10 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Splitting the difference, if it's in the high teens again, we clearly lost value. At 12, it's basically a wash. That's the floor for it to be mediocre, not the ceiling for it to be good.

I simply don’t trust any kind of valuation that would say the 16th pick in 2022 for a late 2022 3, a 2023 1 that ended up 12th overall, and a 2024 2 is basically a wash.

I get docking the future pick ls some, but it’s too much. 

15 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

They have to have another framework for a trade to trade up for a Qb. That’s my guess 

I'm still not sure why pick 16 would be better to combine with pick 19 then 18 would have been with the haul they gave us.  

Man, if Howie was half as good a talent evaluator as he is a trader, we would be a perennial juggernaut.

This is an absolute win, not only did we get something we desperately needed - draft capital to get a QB next year, we also got premium value in the trade for it.

Bravo. Now go rest of NFCS.

1 hour ago, Iggles25 said:

UNC dominating this game on both sides of the ball.

Kansas missing easy layups, at least 3 so far.

Runaway train...

Tbh unc has always had the talent. They entered the year ranked inside the top 20. Their issue is they had a gauntlet schedule to start the year (ky, Purdue, ND, tenn) and they were still adjusting to Davis as coach and playing with each other. Once they got to the end of January they turned the corner. Then beating Duke in Cameron really boosted their confidence. 

Kansas is good but they are still fortunate they got the region they did based off the analytics.  their region they benefitted from creighton losing a starter the game before (as well as out one of their key role players) and nova losing moore the previous week was brutal for nova. add on their region was completely mis-seeded off NET rankings and Kenpom (prior to tournament). The 2 seed auburn by both analytic rankings was closer to a 4 seed than a 2. were the 11th/12th overall so should been a 3  Wisconsin was a 3 seed but both of those rankings should’ve been a 6 seed  and providence by both should’ve been a 8 seed  the committee really did a poor job with that region  

 

It depends on what that pick is used for next year. If the pick say is 17, but it’s used to trade up for an elite QB prospect, then the trade absolutely was worth it. Can’t judge it merely on what the pick is, but how it’s used. They wanted a pick next year I’m part because they think it’s a better QB class.

Now if the pick is 17, they can’t use it to trade up for a QB and stand Pat and end up taking some ho hum player when they could’ve had Kyle Hamilton or something this year then yeah in that scenario it was a bad trade.

1 hour ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

Saints gave up a future first, future second, 3rd this year and whatever else picks to just move up from 19 to 16.  Why do you think a comp 3rd would move you up to the 12-13 range? 

No.  They gave all that up for the sixteenth pick.  Not a move up.

God I’m gonna get wasted at Augusta Saturday and Sunday

9 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

I'm still not sure why pick 16 would be better to combine with pick 19 then 18 would have been with the haul they gave us.  

im guessing they needed two first this year to move up to get the QB. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team like seattle at 9 is trying to move up as well for someone like willis. Seattle only has multiple firsts next year. Not sure a team like the jets or houston or lions if the saints are trying to get into the top 5 is taking 18, future first from the saints as enough when seattle could offer 9th overall, future first as well (probably a better pick considering seattle is awful). I’m thinking it could be 2 firsts this year, 3rd in 2023 and possibly a player and then some to beat a seattle offer

11 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I simply don’t trust any kind of valuation that would say the 16th pick in 2022 for a late 2022 3, a 2023 1 that ended up 12th overall, and a 2024 2 is basically a wash.

I get docking the future pick ls some, but it’s too much. 

Then you don't trust modern day draft pick value trade charts. Which is fine, but realize they're based on established market values. You can argue that's it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, which again is fine. But if everyone's been paying $2k for an ounce of gold for the last decade or two, then you selling it at $1.5k isn't good value even if you personally don't really like gold. The reason being, you sold at below market value regardless of how little you yourself valued the commodity. 

I think it's more likely the Saints pick outside of the top 20 than inside the top 12. They're too strong in the trenches and there's still a strong coaching staff in place. I think they'll finish right in the middle, but I can't see them bottoming out.

2 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

I think it's more likely the Saints pick outside of the top 20 than inside the top 12. They're too strong in the trenches and there's still a strong coaching staff in place. I think they'll finish right in the middle, but I can't see them bottoming out.

Hard to tell with them. I don’t see them becoming a bottom of the barrel team since they withstood a lot last year and just missed the playoffs. More than likely they will be a team that flirts with the #7 seed all year unless Winston gets hurt again. Dalton could guide them to a top 10 pick. 

8 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

It depends on what that pick is used for next year. If the pick say is 17, but it’s used to trade up for an elite QB prospect, then the trade absolutely was worth it. Can’t judge it merely on what the pick is, but how it’s used. They wanted a pick next year I’m part because they think it’s a better QB class.

Now if the pick is 17, they can’t use it to trade up for a QB and stand Pat and end up taking some ho hum player when they could’ve had Kyle Hamilton or something this year then yeah in that scenario it was a bad trade.

Are you implying that they should be trading up for Hamilton this year?

Winston is so bad though and he’s coming off an ACL. Their defense is solid, but I think their offense is going to be really bad.

1 minute ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

Are you implying that they should be trading up for Hamilton this year?

No

3 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Winston is so bad though and he’s coming off an ACL. Their defense is solid, but I think their offense is going to be really bad.

Bit of an understatement, they were 4th in pts allowed. 

6 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

I think it's more likely the Saints pick outside of the top 20 than inside the top 12. They're too strong in the trenches and there's still a strong coaching staff in place. I think they'll finish right in the middle, but I can't see them bottoming out.

TB x 2, ATL x 2, CAR x 2, LAR, SEA, at ARZ, at SF, BAL, CIN, at CLV, at PIT, MIN, LVR, at PHL

I see a floor of 5 wins (ATLx2, CARx2, SEA).  Tossups are ARZ, CLV, PIT, MIN, LVR, and PHI. Maybe steal a game against the Bucs, against whom they seem to play well.

They'll be around .500.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Then you don't trust modern day draft pick value trade charts. Which is fine, but realize they're based on established market values. You can argue that's it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, which again is fine. But if everyone's been paying $2k for an ounce of gold for the last decade or two, then you selling it at $1.5k isn't good value even if you don't really like gold. The reason being, you sold at below market value regardless of how little you yourself valued the commodity. 

Yeah, we just don’t agree here. I think the better analogy is Howie sold his 1 to the Saints with a predatory loan. 

Sure, have your fun now, but that pick is gonna end up pretty costly. 

 

6 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

NFC East is so bad that one of our picks is going to be a wildcard loss. Hopefully the Saints fall apart and that becomes a top 10.

Just now, ManuManu said:

Yeah, we just don’t agree here. I think the better analogy is Howie sold his 1 to the Saints with a predatory loan. 

Sure, have your fun now, but that pick is gonna end up pretty costly. 

Then he sold that loan with less favorable terms for the lender than comparable loans have been sold for in the past couple decades.