35 minutes ago, austinfan said:

If you're 23, 1st rd 2nd contract starts at 28, after 1st rd, 27. So if it's a 3-4 year deal, it only runs through age 29-31.

So I don't see where that's a big deal.

Less upside since the player is closer to being physically mature, but less risk b/c you're not projecting a 21 year to 25 years old (see Freddie Mitchell who got stronger but slower as he aged).

When the Eagles need to make a decision on the fifth year option after the player’s third season, George Karlaftis will be 23 years old.

While you say there’s less risk by taking an older guy, I say there’s much more room for growth and potential by taking a younger guy. Plus a significantly longer prime. Wyatt is 24, he should already be in his prime if he came out at 21. But instead it’ll take 3-4 years to ease into the league and he’ll be pushing 30 before we’ve even figured out what kind of player he is.

I think the age difference is a huge deal. Think about Mailata only just turning 25. He actually shares the same birthday with Devonte Wyatt, born 1 year earlier. If he were Wyatt’s age when he started playing football, that’s an entire rookie contract of time we’d have lost from his prime. If you have two players with similar grades at your pick, and one is 3-4 years younger, that’s an easy decision.

Anyone comparing London to JJAW has never watched London play.

 just 31% of first-round picks sign a second contract with the team that that drafted them.

The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1 - The 33rd Team

40 minutes ago, justrelax said:

I'm not disagreeing with you here but Covid has had a major impact on the number of "older" players coming out. It also has made this a particularly rich draft, IMHO. Probably 25-30% more players coming out. Just no good QBs.

It's a really good draft to add depth later, like a team with 3 5th round picks.

Some older players who can help right away will drop, but once you get past the third round, you're going for categories, i.e., long-shot we can sneak on the PS, can help with depth immediately, ST maven. You'd like to find starters, but the odds are long (10-15%). So this could be the draft to add that 4th DT, 3rd safety, 4th WR, etc. who can step in this year in case of injury.

For every Watkins, there's a number of Hightowers when you get into the later rounds.

 

2022 NFL Draft as a whole from Bucs GM Jason Licht, who picks at 27: "There may not be 30 guys that you think are legit first-round picks, but there's going to be a lot of good players in the middle rounds."

Every NFL Team's Worst Draft Pick of the Past 5 Years | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

Every team has draft busts and disappointments. Enjoy!

We have so many more busts to enjoy, our own and everyone else's.

14 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

When the Eagles need to make a decision on the fifth year option after the player’s third season, George Karlaftis will be 23 years old.

While you say there’s less risk by taking an older guy, I say there’s much more room for growth and potential by taking a younger guy. Plus a significantly longer prime. Wyatt is 24, he should already be in his prime if he came out at 21. But instead it’ll take 3-4 years to ease into the league and he’ll be pushing 30 before we’ve even figured out what kind of player he is.

I think the age difference is a huge deal. Think about Mailata only just turning 25. He actually shares the same birthday with Devonte Wyatt, born 1 year earlier. If he were Wyatt’s age when he started playing football, that’s an entire rookie contract of time we’d have lost from his prime. If you have two players with similar grades at your pick, and one is 3-4 years younger, that’s an easy decision.

Mailata is a freak. The problem with projecting with young players is the difficulty of how physical maturity impacts a player's skill package. This is a problem in all sports, in the NFL, primarily with juniors who come out at a young age. Sometimes players get bigger, stronger and more explosive, other get bigger and slower. Will that 22 athletic OG still be as athletic at 25 with 20-30 added lbs?

So along with upside comes risk. An older player gives you a better idea of what you're getting and how much you can coach them up.

3 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

I saw a mock where the Chiefs, at 29/30 got Karlftis and Olave. 

I would give up #15 for those 2 names, while keeping 18 and getting another DL. 

Chiefs would be dumb to move up

2 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

2022 NFL Draft as a whole from Bucs GM Jason Licht, who picks at 27: "There may not be 30 guys that you think are legit first-round picks, but there's going to be a lot of good players in the middle rounds."

Pick #20 is the cutoff in most drafts, with the talent flattening out from 21-40 or so, varies year to year, but this is the general area of cutoffs.

Most years there aren't 32 1st rd talents.

4 minutes ago, downundermike said:

 

I don't want this to sound like the Eagles need to sign or claim every available player but Boykin is exactly the kind of guy they need to be bringing in here.  The WR is pretty bare.  Boykin has great measurables.  At the very least he's better than JJAW.  Will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh can do with Boykin.  They know WR.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him be a good #3 for the Steelers. 

16 minutes ago, RLC said:

Anyone comparing London to JJAW has never watched London play.

JJaw looked decent in college too though..

1 minute ago, bpac55 said:

I don't want this to sound like the Eagles need to sign or claim every available player but Boykin is exactly the kind of guy they need to be bringing in here.  The WR is pretty bare.  Boykin has great measurables.  At the very least he's better than JJAW.  Will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh can do with Boykin.  They know WR.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him be a good #3 for the Steelers. 

You don't like the idea of going after 34 year old punt returner and or a hurdler who hasn't played football since 2017 ?

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Agreed, which is why you put that clause in there... on the hope that somehow, someway a weird miracle happens.   The acquiring team would have to recognize what you just laid out and shouldn't argue against it.  Imagine how good he'd have to be to make it in his first year as a starter, even to be like the 3rd alternate or something.  He is basically a rookie afterall.

Trading for first round disappointments is an interesting game.  I always like the idea of being a buyer in these transactions (and no one really enjoys being a seller on a first round bust, although getting some value for them while you can is smart).  First round talent for cheap under the biased optimism that your coaching staff is all they need to realize that potential.

The problem is that first round picks are given every opportunity to succeed...and then some more opportunity.  Any first rounder traded on their rookie deal are probably a pretty safe bet to fail.  Offhand, I can't think of any really good success stories of 1st rounders traded in this scenario.

Some interesting semi relevant examples of such salvage projects for us: Chance Warmack (not a trade...UFA after his option was declined), DGB (not a first round pick, but the shoe kind of fits), Ernie Sims.  The common denominator: I loved all of these moves for their creativity and upside...and they all failed.  But...Donte Stallworth was a major success story.

56 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

I know the competition is fierce, but I have found the worst Eagles take of all-time.

 

He's better than Hurts but he's not worth a big contract or even the picks that Cards would want for him

I have Bonitto a little higher , top 5 edge for me

 

2 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

He's better than Hurts but he's not worth a big contract or even the picks that Cards would want for him

That bar is so low, I think even Murray would have to duck when walking under it.

5 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

I don't want this to sound like the Eagles need to sign or claim every available player but Boykin is exactly the kind of guy they need to be bringing in here.  The WR is pretty bare.  Boykin has great measurables.  At the very least he's better than JJAW.  Will be interesting to see what Pittsburgh can do with Boykin.  They know WR.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him be a good #3 for the Steelers. 

Boykin couldn't stick on a team that is so desperate for a WR they drafted two in 2018, two more in 2019, two more in 2020 .... and two more in 2021.

If Boykin was worth a crap the Ravens would be begging him not to leave.  Great measurables, no talent.

12 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Mailata is a freak. The problem with projecting with young players is the difficulty of how physical maturity impacts a player's skill package. This is a problem in all sports, in the NFL, primarily with juniors who come out at a young age. Sometimes players get bigger, stronger and more explosive, other get bigger and slower. Will that 22 athletic OG still be as athletic at 25 with 20-30 added lbs?

So along with upside comes risk. An older player gives you a better idea of what you're getting and how much you can coach them up.

With that as the mindset, isn’t Wyatt being already Physically mature and not even being a top 10 projected pick amongst way younger players a drawback? If he isn’t developing much more than this, and this his "physical maturity”, wouldn’t you want a player who could potentially exceed him?

If you really want Kyler Murray, just pick up Baker Mayfield.

3 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Trading for first round disappointments is an interesting game.  I always like the idea of being a buyer in these transactions (and no one really enjoys being a seller on a first round bust, although getting some value for them while you can is smart).  First round talent for cheap under the biased optimism that your coaching staff is all they need to realize that potential.

The problem is that first round picks are given every opportunity to succeed...and then some more opportunity.  Any first rounder traded on their rookie deal are probably a pretty safe bet to fail.  Offhand, I can't think of any really good success stories of 1st rounders traded in this scenario.

Some interesting semi relevant examples of such salvage projects for us: Chance Warmack (not a trade...UFA after his option was declined), DGB (not a first round pick, but the shoe kind of fits), Ernie Sims.  The common denominator: I loved all of these moves for their creativity and upside...and they all failed.  But...Donte Stallworth was a major success story.

Except for this one, in this situation.  He was pushed behind Peters because Jason has something on Lurie and he got to pick when he was washed up, no one else.  Then thrown to RT when he clearly wasn't ready for that change, then was allowed to be beaten out by a former 7th pick.  They didn't do Dillard many favors.

Boye Mafe will get drafted in the back half by a better team with an already solid defense in place...they'll turn him loose on passing downs and he'll lead all rookies in sacks this year.

Dan Sileo is the worst. Absolutely loathe him.

6 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

That bar is so low, I think even Murray would have to duck when walking under it.

You win the internet today.

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Except for this one, in this situation.  He was pushed behind Peters because Jason has something on Lurie and he got to pick when he was washed up, no one else.  Then thrown to RT when he clearly wasn't ready for that change, then was allowed to be beaten out by a former 7th pick.  They didn't do Dillard many favors.

You are probably right on that.  I feel weird trading Dillard, IF there is still potential there, because I still think we are going to have to replace Lane within 2 seasons.