16 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

This chart should be required reading for fans that post in this Blog. 

 

Meh - 60% of the time,  my picks work every time.

1 hour ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Karlaftis is a better player than who??  

Kayvon T

1 hour ago, wussbasket said:

Thought this was interesting. Only 12 Centers taken in the 1st round since 1980, none in the top 10, but its the easiest position to draft. This chart also indicates there's a slight uptick, in their definition of success, for QBs drafted in the 2nd round.

They really lowered the bar for 'success' by Round.  So much so that it becomes an impossible thing to really get a gauge on anything.  

A second round pick that sticks for 11 years as a backup earns 3.6 points = success.   And many of them will get a season or two to start by default because their teams are desperate and try to prove themselves right in that selection.  

Reggie Brown started more than 50% of the games the first 3 seasons... plus two more years bounced around.  That equals 3.6 points.  Was that a successful pick?  

2 hours ago, ManuManu said:

ESPN loading up on the 3s now. 

Wait... he last worked for the Eagles... so the pick should convey to the Eagles.  They would be the last group that 'mentored' him.

1 hour ago, greend said:

That's crazy

11 year backup QB is success.  

Hurts is already at 1.3 points.  He'll likely start next year here, so that puts him at 2.3 in 2023.  And if he sticks as a backup for just 4 more years, he'd be a 'successful' pick.  

Just now, Iggles_Phan said:

11 year backup QB is success.  

Hurts is already at 1.3 points.  He'll likely start next year here, so that puts him at 2.3 in 2023.  And if he sticks as a backup for just 4 more years, he'd be a 'successful' pick.  

Don’t speak this into existence.

3 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

We've seen first hand one an elite Center can do for the offense. 

Linderbaum is elite. I understand Center isnt desirable but he seems to be a cant miss with a low ceiling.  

If I told you he'd never make an All pro team, he's not going into the Hall of Fame but He'll make 3 or 4 pro bowls over the next 10 years Id take him every day of the week

If we run the Swag offense, Baumer is a solid bet as he can get up to the 2nd level, pull, hit moving targets on bubbles, etc.  If we revert to a 60%+ drop back offense, then having a 290lb center might not be as ideal - as even a HOFer like Kelce has had his struggles anchoring at times in his career.  The elephant in the room is Kelce is back, and Stout is in the house.

2 minutes ago, WentzFan11 said:

Don’t speak this into existence.

Just reading the lay of the NFL.   I just don't see it going differently.  

 

35 minutes ago, RLC said:

I'm very anti-Linderbaum. I'm not drafting a sub 300lb C in RD1. Picking a S/TE/C/LB in RD1 requires near perfect measurables for me due to positional value.

I was really referring to the success % of players; even QB’s taken as top 10 picks have less than a 1 in 2 chance of making it (as a starter) in the NFL.  

2 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

I was really referring to the success % of players; even QB’s taken as top 10 picks have less than a 1 in 2 chance of making it (as a starter) in the NFL.  

Absolutely. 

The hit rate on iOL is good in later-rounds. However, the hit rate on EDGE is later-rounds is poor. Draft EDGE early, not iOL.

The circle of (failed Bellichick assistants) life

3 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

The circle of (failed Bellichick assistants) life

 

They hire a replacement for McDaniels yet? 

1 hour ago, wussbasket said:

Thought this was interesting. Only 12 Centers taken in the 1st round since 1980, none in the top 10, but its the easiest position to draft. This chart also indicates there's a slight uptick, in their definition of success, for QBs drafted in the 2nd round.

I decided to take a quick look at this because it seems counter-intuitive to me.  I've never thought 2nd round was a good place to take a QB, especially recently, because the highly regarded prospects will all go in the first round, and the project QBs are better value being taken later.  So I went back to 1980-present to take a look.

I skimmed through the drafts as I am at work, so it's possible I missed a selection or two, but here's what I see:

1980 - 1990 -- By my count 9 QBs taken in the 2nd round for the entire decade.  Neil Lomax (1981) was pretty good, Boomer Esiason in '84 and Randall in '85.  3/9

1991 - 2000 -- By my count 10 QBs taken in the 2nd round.  Brett Favre in 1991, Jake Plummer in '97.  The rest are meh or worse.  2/10

2001 - 2010 -- By my count 12 QBs taken in the 2nd round.  Drew Brees, and garbage.  1/12

2011 - 2020 -- By my count 10 QBs taken in the 2nd round.  Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Jimmy G.  No, I'm not putting Hurts in there.  3/10

 

Folks are welcome to review the drafts and draw their own conclusions, but I don't really see an uptick -- it all depends what is considered success, though.  Combined I score it 9 good QBs in 41 draft choices (22% success).  When I previously went through the first round QBs drafted from 2010 - 2019 I came up with 8 out of 30 (27%).

My assumption is drafting a QB in the 3rd round or later has an even lower success rate.  I guess any way you slice it, you're much more likely to fail than succeed at drafting a QB -- so keep swinging.

32 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Come on man.  What year did you graduate from Purdue?

Delaware

 

25 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

11 year backup QB is success.  

Hurts is already at 1.3 points.  He'll likely start next year here, so that puts him at 2.3 in 2023.  And if he sticks as a backup for just 4 more years, he'd be a 'successful' pick.  

ahhhh, okay thanks

44 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

This chart should be required reading for fans that post in this Blog. 

 

I think it's interesting.  I don't know that it's anything groundbreaking.  I wonder with first round picks how often a top 10 pick suffered a serious injury in their first 5 seasons.  I would bet that season ending injuries play a significant role in success for certain positions.  

If Marinelli is actually available, we should throw a ton of money at him.

19 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Plus he can be a game show host on the side

Salciunas is one of the most annoying people on the radio.  If that's 97.5's future then they are screwed. 

37 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Damn. Great hire. They did lose a really good DC, though.

Vernon Davis doesn’t count as a success?

 

Former NFL agent Joel Corry wrote in his 2021 Contract Awards for CBS Sports: Best contract extension of the year goes to our boy.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-awards-starring-matthew-stafford-among-nfls-best-and-worst-signings-of-the-year/

Quote

The Eagles signed Jordan Mailata, a rugby player who had never played American football when taken in 2018's seventh round, to a four-year, $64 million extension (worth up to $80 million through salary escalators) with $40.85 million of guarantees. Mailata played at a Pro Bowl level in his first season as a full-time starter. He only gave up 20 quarterback pressures this season according to PFF.

Without the extension, the Eagles would have been forced to designate Mailata as a franchise player or risk losing him in free agency. Since Mailata is just scratching the surface of his talent, he would have been in high demand on the open market. Mailata joining the $20 million per year offensive lineman club, which currently has three members, would have been a certainty. Left tackles Trent Williams, David Bakhtiari and Laremy Tunsil have deals with the 49ers, Packers and Texans averaging $23.01 million, $23 million and $22 million per year respectively. Becoming the NFL's highest paid offensive lineman, like Trent Brown did with the Raiders in 2019 free agency, wouldn't have been out of the question since Mailata doesn't turn 25 until the end of March.

3 minutes ago, SB52 said:

Vernon Davis doesn’t count as a success?

Winslow, failure?