22 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

Checking in on Cat Turd.  Oh…

 

PARIS — After the shock of French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections last month, another surprise came for French voters as polls closed Sunday evening: the far-right National Party (RN) did not receive the majority of the parliamentary seats pollsters had predicted. It didn’t even come close. 

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/07/nx-s1-5032011/france-elections-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen

 

Boy that's weird

2 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Then they lose out on Ohio, I guess. Ballot access is one of the logistical challenges with nominating someone other than Biden or Harris. But it's moot because there's nobody that's winning the nomination at the convention that even has a snowball's chance in hell of winning Ohio.

I had that thought too, to me it would just be an embarrassment if you can't even get your candidate on all of the ballots for President. 

On 7/5/2024 at 1:44 PM, JohnSnowsHair said:

Gabbard didn't tear apart much of anything in any debate IIRC. She was the closest thing to a Trump type persona in those debates, trying to weave conspiracy theories and eyebrow raising counterculture hot-takes into some kind of Democrat-adjacent anti-establishment populism.

 

On 7/5/2024 at 3:28 PM, Gannan said:

Gabard looked like a deranged lunatic who wanted to offer BJ’s to Putin and Assad in exchange for promises of peace.

I looked it up at the weekend and my memory fits. Harris couldn't really answer the list of stuff like holding people on death row when innocent and her campaign was toast after.  Of course Harris may have got a lot better since, but that campaign ended very quickly. I don't see her as anything more than the real world version of Selena Meyer from VEEP.

On 7/5/2024 at 9:08 PM, Procus said:

There's a lesson to be learned here.  If the Dems got rid of their extremists and gravitated toward the center as they did during the Clinton era, they could realize significant gains and probably hold onto the WH.

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/elections-news/labour-got-rid-of-its-extreme-leftists-and-was-rewarded-with-a-landslide-victory/2024/07/05/

Labour Got Rid of Its Extreme Leftists and Was Rewarded with a Landslide Victory

This a lot more complex than that.  The Conservative party who won the last election with a majority, spent nearly 5 years doing nothing but fall out with each other, removing leaders and largely following a socio liberal prospectus vs a socio conservative one. We have High tax, high spend, high immigration, etc.  Their losing the election issue was 2 fold. Voters were fed up of them and a large number of people voted for an insurgent party, whose vote count in a lot of districts was the difference between the Conservative MP winning and losing. The turnout was the worst in the UK for many years and some Labour MPs were lucky to hold onto their seats.

The Labour party won because they were there, but they achieved it will less votes than losing the last election and there is very little enthusiasm in the general public for their policies.  Starmer did purge the extreme left to a degree, but Corbyn's cronies are still very much lurking in the background and will want their pound of flesh.  Him purging the far left didn't win him the election. Far from it. 

10 hours ago, DaEagles4Life said:

 

The French election is a really interesting one.  Le Pen's "Far Right" are in most normalities, just a centre right wing party and their election result was consequence of their electoral system containing 2 rounds where if a majority in the week befores election was not present, went to another vote this week. To stop Le Pan, the left stood back in some areas in order to ensure the right didn't get in and this meant  some interesting characters got voted in.  Tactical voting.

The reality of Marcon fiddling in the background over last week to make a left coalition bigger than the right has meant their French version of Bernie Sanders is now leading the one of the bigger parties.  Le Pen's party support over France is growing at every election and like the UK, France is deeply divided on tax, spend, immigration, climate taxes and religious autonomy for some religions.  It could well pop off soon when the reality of no one party having control bites and Marcon has to resign.

Europe overall is not a happy place. The Technocrats time is running out and our political class is largely low IQ professional politicians who cannot relate to the real world.  The right wing are not going away and will only grow with the recent electoral results and gerrymandering from the left.

8 hours ago, VaBeach_Eagle said:

I had that thought too, to me it would just be an embarrassment if you can't even get your candidate on all of the ballots for President. 

This is 2024, where one candidate is 81 yrs old and struggling to extinguish doubts about his ability to stay in the race and the other is almost as old, couldn't point out his own wife in photos, was found liable for rape, convicted on 34 felonies, tried to illegally remain in power after losing the previous election, and has literally said he would be a dictator on day 1 if he were to be re-elected. Welcome to the golden era of political embarrassment.

4 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

I looked it up at the weekend and my memory fits. Harris couldn't really answer the list of stuff like holding people on death row when innocent and her campaign was toast after.  Of course Harris may have got a lot better since, but that campaign ended very quickly. I don't see her as anything more than the real world version of Selena Meyer from VEEP.

Kamala's campaign issues are pretty well known and explored, and in no scenario does it tie back to Tulsa Gabbard - who was and is a joke - debating Kamala. 

Nobody took Gabbard seriously except right-wingnuts who were trying to raise her profile in the Democratic primary.

Gabbard should have stuck to sharing pics of her surfing. It would have served her better to speak less.

On 7/5/2024 at 12:33 PM, mr_hunt said:

somebody told cheeto the pedo that project 2025 will hurt his re-election chances, so........

he disagrees with it...and also knows nothing about it...and wishes them luck.      

Trump better inform himself of Project 2025. Because the people he appoints want to impose Project 2025. If Trump knows nothing about Project 2025 he is an incompetent leader. 

24 minutes ago, toolg said:

Trump better inform himself of Project 2025. Because the people he appoints want to impose Project 2025. If Trump knows nothing about Project 2025 he is an incompetent leader. 

This has been the worst kept secret of the past 25-30 years.

11 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 

PARIS — After the shock of French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections last month, another surprise came for French voters as polls closed Sunday evening: the far-right National Party (RN) did not receive the majority of the parliamentary seats pollsters had predicted. It didn’t even come close. 

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/07/nx-s1-5032011/france-elections-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen

 

Boy that's weird

Just proving that Polls are worthless and totally unbelievable. 

Trump doesn't know anything about Project 2025. No one in the world believes that lie. 

20 minutes ago, jsdarkstar said:

Just proving that Polls are worthless and totally unbelievable. 

I don't know if I'd say totally worthless, but the highly polarized politcal climate means self-selection bias is at a level that proper weighting can no longer account for. Those who are extremely passionate about a candidate are probably 5x more likely to respond to polls than someone who is only casually engaged in politics. But if the latter person decides to turn out and vote, their ballot is just as valid as the former. The polls become disconnected from reality when those who are casuaully engaged end up on one side of a ballot in much larger numbers than the other.

This is the "closet voters" phenomenon we saw in 2016 where Trump's brand of populism and nationalism reached out to a portion of the electorate that had not been tapped by previous GOP candidates. They weren't as willing to respond to polls as some passionate HRC voters were so that's how you end up with some of the swing state polls not reflecting actual turnout (though despite all the hand wringing, national polls were still largely within the MOE.) A lot of them also just flat out did not like HRC, and were casting a vote against her just as much as it was for the GOP candidate.

Then in 2020, we saw a bit of a shift where Trump had now built up a rabid base of passionate supporters leaving the remaining casually engaged voters somewhat split between the two candidates since Biden was a bit of a mixed bag then too. And now in 2024, I think we'll have more of the casually engaged voters who will "hold their nose" and cast their ballots for Biden more so as a vote against Trump rather than for Biden, outnumbering those who would do the same against Biden but for Trump. Anyone still voting for Trump at this point is no longer ashamed by it, they wear it like a badge of honor. But those voting for Biden likely aren't as enthusiastic about it, maybe even a bit ashamed at this point given the negative press since the debate. That makes polling incredibly difficult because while they still fully intend to vote for Biden, they're not as likely to respond to polls indicating that intention, at least not when we're still 4 months out.

 

On 7/5/2024 at 9:08 PM, Procus said:

There's a lesson to be learned here.  If the Dems got rid of their extremists and gravitated toward the center as they did during the Clinton era, they could realize significant gains and probably hold onto the WH.

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/elections-news/labour-got-rid-of-its-extreme-leftists-and-was-rewarded-with-a-landslide-victory/2024/07/05/

Labour Got Rid of Its Extreme Leftists and Was Rewarded with a Landslide Victory

There isn't a lesson to be learned here other than the British electoral system can produce a landslide for a party when it gets a smidge over a third of the popular vote.

The story is the entirety of the British media, a bunch of opaquely funded lobby groups and the ex Labour leaders own side ran an all channels character assassination on the Labour Party's left wing for 2 years after they frightened everyone to death by getting 40% of the popular vote in 2017, driving the Labour vote share down to just over 32 percent (in terms of raw votes it was still the second best Labour vote for 18 years).

Then everyone immediately got buyers remorse when the guy they shitefested to power (Boris Johnson) turned out to be exactly the sort of fail upward unserious clown he'd been his entire life, the press turned on him and destroyed him as a politician within 2 years, then foisted ever more ridiculous Prime Ministers on the country including Liz Truss who is possibly the stupidest politician on gods green earth until the last guy decided to give up early and called an election.

In the meantime the Labour Party had dumped the left wing leader and Keir Starmer won the leadership contest after telling the membership he'd run a similar left wing platform (worth noting that most of the left wing policies consistently show majority support in blind polling), then immediately tacking right and reneging on all his campaign pledges when the polls were over and running on basically the Tories 2010 platform.

So a combination of the Conservative vote collapsing from 42% in 2019 to somewhere around 24% meant that the Labour getting fewer raw votes than 2019 on a 1.8% rise in vote share (entirely due to a huge rise in Scotland, Labours English vote was static and they lost vote share in Wales) transformed an 80 seat Conservative majority into a 170 seat Labour one. It is comfortably the most ridiculous UK election result in the last 45 years, and Labour's mandate is made of sand and will wash away the second the Conservative party are deemed by Rupert Murdoch to have got their act together.

 

1 hour ago, jsdarkstar said:

Trump doesn't know anything about Project 2025. No one in the world believes that lie. 

I believe it. Trump is an inept buffoon, knows nothing of governing, who only cares about the publicity for his brand.

7 minutes ago, toolg said:

I believe it. Trump is an inept buffoon, knows nothing of governing, who only cares about the publicity for his brand.

 

 

8 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

 

1 minute ago, Mike030270 said:

 

He really is going to ride it into the abyss, America's choice is a senile old fool or a criminal old fool.

This is where you end up when the "centrists / bi partisans" in a party keep choosing to pander to the Right's 'legitimate concerns' about immigration, foreign policy and Tax levels rather than try moving back to when America really was in a golden age for everyone and not just horses asses like Elon Musk. So the supposed left wing party just ends up a ratchet point moving the debate rightwards until the thing you're calling the centre ground is way to the right of Nixon and Eisenhower's tax policy looks like Communism, and the Right wing party is basically a bunch of octagenarians and swivel eyed loons who in the pre internet age would never have got anywhere near power.

12 minutes ago, Arthur Jackson said:

I have never once donated money to a political candidate, but I'd seriously consider it if Biden said this line just once between now and the convention. 

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

I have never once donated money to a political candidate, but I'd seriously consider it if Biden said this line just once between now and the convention. 

If he had said it during the debate I'd be in suburban Detroit right now myself filling out absentee ballots for nursing home patients

https://mfbc.us/m/mhvdznp

The abyss

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

The abyss

that's what inspired the bingo card

i feel like I've seen it on here like 400 times in the past week

14 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 

PARIS — After the shock of French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections last month, another surprise came for French voters as polls closed Sunday evening: the far-right National Party (RN) did not receive the majority of the parliamentary seats pollsters had predicted. It didn’t even come close. 

https://www.npr.org/2024/07/07/nx-s1-5032011/france-elections-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen

 

Boy that's weird

Yep, because they didn't predict the "centrists" and the communists to fully collude against RN which received the most votes out of any party.  

Checking in on muh sacred democracy.

 

1 minute ago, Kz! said:

the "centrists" and the communists to fully collude against RN

Rigged! Stollen! Ballot dumps!