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EMB Blog: 2023 Regular Season thru Week 9 - NO POLITICS

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5 hours ago, RLC said:

Patrick Surtain IS worth 2 1sts + Ringo, but not to us. We just don't have the cap space to immediately extend him as we already paid Bradberry/Slay for 2024.

We already made our big "trade 1st + 3rd" move for AJ Brown AND we gave Hurts a big money deal. You can't keep doing that.

And we need to give extensions out to Smith, Dickerson, possibly one or both DE's... That's off the top of my head. We don't have the cap space, at least I'm not seeing it. I'd love Surtain here but I think it's around 5% probability. 

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Would love Hicks back…never wanted him to go.

Dude is always around the ball.

10 minutes ago, Parrot Head said:

Would love Hicks back…never wanted him to go.

Dude is always around the ball.

That’s a tough one for Howie to sell though

Seahawks are already in, Cowboys are already in. So for that final wild card spot, the realistic contestants are TB, LAR, WAS, NYG, NO, GB, MIN. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to say Minnesota top-to-bottom is the premier team out of that bunch. They have 4 losses because their opening slate was brutal. Only team to play both SB participants in the first 5 weeks. Only team to play 5 2022 playoff teams in the first 7 weeks. They’re not going to be under .500 for long.
 

So when Howie calls Minnesota, how does he sell them that getting a 5th rounder for their best LB is better than eeking out the final wild card spot and getting SF again in the first round? I think Minny is gonna be buyers. How would Derrick Henry look in that offense?

26 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Russini:

"The Eagles want to make another move even after adding safety and five-time Titans captain Kevin Byard. I expect Howie Roseman to be busy Monday morning. He’s poking around at linebacker."

I think Jordan Hicks coming back is probably the best bet if the Eagles make any move.

Being LB isn't a coveted position, I would think you can get one on a discount from a bad team. I would do that plus grab Kenny Moore for slot CB. Defense would basically be set. I wouldn't mind a DE but not sure whom is available at a mid level cost. Maybe Carl Lawson on the Jets... He would be a solid #3 DE in this rotation. 

 

3 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

No excuses.  Must be tough for the Niners to play without them.

6 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

That’s a tough one for Howie to sell though

Seahawks are already in, Cowboys are already in. So for that final wild card spot, the realistic contestants are TB, LAR, WAS, NYG, NO, GB, MIN. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to say Minnesota top-to-bottom is the premier team out of that bunch. 
 

So when Howie calls Minnesota, how does he sell them that getting a 5th rounder for their best PB is better than eeking out the final wild card spot and getting SF again in the first round?

Yep I'm not sure Vikings won't win the division still.  Jewell seems most likely to me if Denver is serious

16 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

And we need to give extensions out to Smith, Dickerson, possibly one or both DE's... That's off the top of my head. We don't have the cap space, at least I'm not seeing it. I'd love Surtain here but I think it's around 5% probability. 

The whole key for us at this phase of the cycle

is to have talent on cheap rookie deals

 

not dealing picks and handing out big extensions

The 49ers should definitely keep blocking EDGE rushers with TEs and running sneaks behind that weak interior OL with Purdy now that he's back healthy. Definitely no way that could backfire a 5th time. 

1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said:

The whole key for us at this phase of the cycle

is to have talent on cheap rookie deals

 

not dealing picks and handing out big extensions

Yup, we're in agreement there. I'm just not seeing it especially since Denver will want a kings ransom for him. 

42 minutes ago, TEW said:

Brown is only 18 months older, is way better, is bigger, faster, better after the catch, etc.

Smith isn’t in his league as a player and I doubt Smith reaches Brown’s level, let alone sustains it longer.

Obviously we don’t want to lose Smith, but if it comes down to hard decisions between Smith Dickerson and Sweat, I’m keeping the latter two. Much easier to replace a good, one dimensional #2 WR than the best LG in the NFL or a top tier DE.

We heard you the first time…

 

dont pay for past performance. Invest in ascending assets not declining ones.

if brown loses a step he basically a TE

1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said:

We heard you the first time…

 

dont pay for past performance. Invest in ascending assets not declining ones.

if brown loses a step he basically a TE

If Brown loses a step, he’s as fast as Smith…

15 minutes ago, pgcd3 said:

Yep I'm not sure Vikings won't win the division still. 

I said this same thing to my Vikings friend who almost didn’t even want to watch the SF Monday night game. 
 

Detroit has looked good this year. Better than the hype even built them up for. But they’ve also looked not good against Seattle and Baltimore. Both those teams won easily. Minnesota has been in every game they’ve played, all of them are winnable within 2 minutes. They played KC hard. They played LAC hard. They played us hard. I don’t think Baltimore holds Primetime Cousins to 6 points, we learned that firsthand.

Those will be really interesting games.

42 minutes ago, eaglestime34 said:

Anyone know why the Oklahoma Kansas game is delayed?

Lightening in the area.

Bummer that Purdy is back.  Second best QB in the NFC.

LB trade prediction: Lavonte David. Has a 1.165M base salary. UFA at the end of the season and because he has 11 accrued season, the most the Bucs can get as a comp pick is a 5th round pick. He's 33, so shouldn't be part of any rebuild. He's still arguably a top 5 LB (comfortably top 15). Bucs do have 62M in cap space in 2024, but they're also a team that may want to pay a QB in the off-season (Kirk, Kyler).

5 hours ago, bpac55 said:

Regarding Patrick Surtain. He's arguably a top 3 CB in the NFL. He's a stand up guy who grew up in and NFL family. I've never liked Jalen Ramsey's attitude and there's a reason he's been traded twice now despite his talent. The only reason Surtain is even on the block is because Denver is getting ready for a complete tear down and rebuild. Ramsey was dealt because teams didn't want him anymore. 

For starters, Surtain will be turning 24 right around the draft so he's going to be the same age as some of the older players available during the draft. 

-Currently, the Eagles should be in the 28-32 draft pick range. The draft value of 28 is 660, 32 is 590. We aren't talking about shipping off a valuable 1st round pick here like they had last year (1200 points). For comparison, they also hold pick 49 (Saints) and that value is 410. 

So right off the bat, including this years 1st is a no brainer. If you could guarantee you're getting a top 3 All-Pro CB at the bottom of the 1st, you do it 10 out of 10 times. 

This team is built to compete for at least the next 2 years so let's assume that the 2025 1st is in the same range. Again, you're not getting a player close to the caliber of Surtain with that pick either.

I'm 100% on board with giving up this years 1st and next years 1st to get Patrick Surtain here. I also think Howie won't have to pay that because well, he's Howie, and he's terrific at blockbuster trades. I think you look at a guy like Kelee Ringo who could be a part of the trade package. 

Where the Eagles run in to trouble is salary. If Surtain comes in, he just adds one more player who's going to need a top salary at the earliest after next year. At the same time, after next year, Slay and Bradberry can come off the books. I THINK, but not positive, both could be post June 1 trades.

 

I'd be looking at an offer of 2024 1st, 2024 2nd (NO), Kelee Ringo and their 2025 5th for Surtain and a 2023 5th.

 

I agree with bpac ... and the key question is "Is Patrick Surtain as valuable in 2023-2024 as AJ Brown was in 2022?"  For Brown the Eagles traded first-round pick (No. 18 overall) and a 2022 third-round pick (No. 101 overall) to Tennessee for Brown.  Pick 18 is worth 900 points.  As noted by bpac the Pick 28 to 32 range is worth between 590 and 660.  To be equivalent value to Piok 18 the Eagles need to come up with between 240 and 310 points plus the value of the third round pick sent to Tennessee (96 points).  That aggregates to between 686 and 756 points IF one believes that Brown of 2022 and Surtain of 2023 are of comparable value. That is a second current year Round 1 pick.  So a deal of the "2024 1st, 2024 2nd (NO), Kelee Ringo and their 2025 5th for Surtain and a 2023 5th" seems pretty reasonable.

Plus you get the value of Surtain in 2023 as a bonus toward winning this year's Super Bowl.

6 hours ago, RLC said:

Patrick Surtain IS worth 2 1sts + Ringo, but not to us. We just don't have the cap space to immediately extend him as we already paid Bradberry/Slay for 2024.

We already made our big "trade 1st + 3rd" move for AJ Brown AND we gave Hurts a big money deal. You can't keep doing that.

We don't have to stress our current Cap by extending him immediately ... plus Howie can structure the terms of any extension to mitigate the Cap problems that may arise.

6 hours ago, pgcd3 said:

I don’t see it for many reasons including the fact that 2 1’s from us wouldn’t even be enough. 

Who is more valuable to you?  Surtain in 2023 or AJ Brown in 2022?

4 hours ago, pgcd3 said:

Some people judge players by their worst plays out of a game and a season. Especially true of CBs.  I think we're all guilty of that to an extent during the game but after the fact you should gain perspective.  ie. Slay doesn't suck if he gets beat on one play

That is how Hazleton is judging Barnett as well.

The persistent Surtain talk makes no sense to me.  People trying to play Madden out here.  Throw away the fact that cap wise with the players we need to give contracts to and the cap hits it would take to move on from Slay or Bradberry just doesn't make it reasonable.  You can't move on from Bradberry or Slay midseason for Surtain either. There are locker room dynamics here and those two guys are leaders in the locker room.  Blog is getting goofy right now.  

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

 

Ya right lol

26 minutes ago, mattwill said:

We don't have to stress our current Cap by extending him immediately ... plus Howie can structure the terms of any extension to mitigate the Cap problems that may arise.

Part of the value of Surtain is having him on a rookie deal for 2024 and 2025. We lose that excess value by already paying 2 CBs.

The Eagles are more likely to spend their dough this offseason where you have a multitude of defensive end/edge rushers entering their prime, which would fill an immediate need with losing Graham & Barnett. Similar money will let you reload there, especially if Cox is gone as well. And if Kelce retires, they can use his money for a right guard like Onwenu from Patriots. Also entering his prime and then shift Jurgens back to center. Rather wait til offseason and fire away with spending then,  without giving up anything but money and filling team needs. Keep draft picks for 2024 and 2025 to fill pending needs like CB, Right Tackle & LB. 

4 hours ago, ManuManu said:

 

Interesting comments.  In almost all negotiating situations you do not want to be the person who "puts the first number on the table" so there is a dance of wills that goes on about who will be the first.  By following the approach described by Thomas Dimitroff, Howie takes that dance of wills off the table.  He puts the first number on the table.  it isn't a realistic number, but it breaks the iced and also puts the other GM into the position of having to make the next move ... a counter offer.

 

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