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EMB Blog: 2023 Regular Season thru Week 9 - NO POLITICS

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1 hour ago, TEW said:

I mean, even late first round picks bust at a greater than 50% rate. The odds aren’t in any player’s favor. Even a first round pick.

I consider Ringo a boom or bust player more so than a long shot. He has elite tools, but is incredibly raw. He’ll either end up being an excellent starter or never develop. The problem is he needs to play in order to develop, so we’ll have to live through some growing pains. 
 

Ricks flashed enough that I would consider him a solid prospect. Prospects are just that — players who need to develop. The issue is, again, they have to actually play in order to develop. The fact that we kept Ricks on the 53 tells me the eagles are reasonably high on him.

Yes.  They are higher on him than the guys they let go, but... I'm not going to call them anything other than just young guys, not solid prospects.  

Boom or bust... vs. long shot.  Is there really a difference?   It certainly isn't a 'solid' prospect either way.  

 

As your first line says, even 'solid prospects' who go in the first and second round have a high bust rate, so you will have to forgive me for believing that Ringo and Ricks aren't even approaching anything as high as 50% right now.  That can change with more development, more information.  Right now, what we saw in PS is that they have some talent and have some growing to do.  That's why they are on the roster, but also why they are buried on the roster right now behind Slay, Bradberry, Maddox, Jobe and Goodrich.  They are #6 and #7 on the depth chart for a reason right now.   They might be able to move past Goodrich based on last week.  He looked lost.   And the injuries to Bradberry and Maddox offers a path to some PT.  In the meantime, they can play ST when active and just learn in practice.   Hopefully they grow up and become studs.  That would be nice.

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1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

 

I could easily blame that on a typo, but I’d just be lying. 

Earlier you blamed it on hypoxia.  :lol:.  I guess the lack of oxygen caused you to forget that.

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Earlier you blamed it on hypoxia.  :lol:.  I guess the lack of oxygen caused you to forget that.

Hypoxia led to the miscalculation.  I didn’t say I won’t make excuses haha.

1 hour ago, RLC said:

We're 2-0. All this talk for a Super Bowl hangover and while it hasn't been pretty, it hasn't affected the standings. Our young players from the 2021-2023 draft classes all look good, so this isn't a mirage.

Now we get a mini-bye to get back on track to 2022 levels.

The question I have regarding these Super Bowl hangovers... how many times is it due to smelling themselves and how many times is it the extra games catching up to these guys' bodies?  

1 hour ago, McMVP said:

I feel Ricks is going to be a keeper.  I would be surprised if he didn’t become a very good corner in this league.  I’m more unsure about Ringo

I agree.  He has some skills.  But, until we actually see it on the field in the NFL... it is much more wishcasting than it is forecasting.   Right now the data says, "Inconclusive".  

36 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

I was on the Will Anderson Jr. > Jalen Carter hype train before the draft.

I was baffled that every single media draft board and pundit had Carter as the #1 player.

I get it now...

3 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

The question I have regarding these Super Bowl hangovers... how many times is it due to smelling themselves and how many times is it the extra games catching up to these guys' bodies?  

Weirdly, after playing a lot of snaps last year Fletch looks fresher than prior years.

34 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

I don't think hurries are an official, well kept stat, but I feel like 85 hurries is the equivalent of about 85 home runs in a baseball season.

I'd say the hurry stat in football would be more equivalent to the ball to the warning track in baseball.   Sometimes the ball to the warning track is just an out.  Sometimes a sac fly, other times its a double off the wall.  What happens AFTER the QB is hurried determines the rest.  Its better to have a hurry than leaving the QB to stand like a statue with tons of space and time... but by itself, it doesn't mean a thing.

Just now, Waiting4Someday said:

Weirdly, after playing a lot of snaps last year Fletch looks fresher than prior years.

I think that Fletcher might have been rejuvenated by these Georgia Dawgs in the room.  He wants to prove he still belongs.   :lol:. And, frankly, he has to play at that level to keep getting snaps.  Carter is up, Davis is up, Williams is up...  Cox needs to match them to stay on the field.  

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

It’s entirely possible that Maddox has already played his last down as an Eagle.  Next year, Slay and Bradberry will be a combined 74.

That might be a rough cb group.

Yes we need to get younger at CB because of Slay and Bradberry getting older and you can't count on Maddox anymore. Slay does seem to slip as the season goes on.

Question is are these young guys like Jobe, Rick's, Ringo, Goodrich, etc good enough to be at least a quality level starter going forward.

Maybe there is a CB in this upcoming draft although Howies track record at drafting CBs isn't great.  Maybe he trades for one like he did for Slay.

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I think that Fletcher might have been rejuvenated by these Georgia Dawgs in the room.  He wants to prove he still belongs.   :lol:. And, frankly, he has to play at that level to keep getting snaps.  Carter is up, Davis is up, Williams is up...  Cox needs to match them to stay on the field.  

So you’re saying Cox up is next?

1 minute ago, Khani1 said:

So you’re saying Cox up is next?

uh.... :unsure:

 

 

 

 

BTW... I think the statute of limitations is up on the avatar bet you made... unless that's your preference.  NTTAWWT.

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I think that Fletcher might have been rejuvenated by these Georgia Dawgs in the room.  He wants to prove he still belongs.   :lol:. And, frankly, he has to play at that level to keep getting snaps.  Carter is up, Davis is up, Williams is up...  Cox needs to match them to stay on the field.  

I imagine that number of doubles he commands will drop given the surrounding cast - good situation.

That sucks.  Hope Allar's hand is ok.  (Hit it on a helmet on a release.).  Kid looks like a legit NFL QB prospect.  

15 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Yes.  They are higher on him than the guys they let go, but... I'm not going to call them anything other than just young guys, not solid prospects.  

Boom or bust... vs. long shot.  Is there really a difference?   It certainly isn't a 'solid' prospect either way.  

 

As your first line says, even 'solid prospects' who go in the first and second round have a high bust rate, so you will have to forgive me for believing that Ringo and Ricks aren't even approaching anything as high as 50% right now.  That can change with more development, more information.  Right now, what we saw in PS is that they have some talent and have some growing to do.  That's why they are on the roster, but also why they are buried on the roster right now behind Slay, Bradberry, Maddox, Jobe and Goodrich.  They are #6 and #7 on the depth chart for a reason right now.   They might be able to move past Goodrich based on last week.  He looked lost.   And the injuries to Bradberry and Maddox offers a path to some PT.  In the meantime, they can play ST when active and just learn in practice.   Hopefully they grow up and become studs.  That would be nice.

Yeah, I absolutely think there is a difference. The difference is in probability and potential. A long shot to me means a player has very little chance to make an NFL roster over the long term, and even less chance to become a relevant player over the course of his career.

A boom or bust prospect has a reasonably high likelihood to become a relevant player, and the upshot is that his relevancy has a much higher chance to be on the "star player” level of relevancy than "solid backup” level of relevancy.

Just now, Waiting4Someday said:

I imagine that number of doubles he commands will drop given the surrounding cast - good situation.

We saw it Thursday.  Someone posted all of Carter's snaps.   I went through it.   At the beginning of the game, the center looked to Fletcher's side for the doubles, but as the game went on, the center flipped and starting doubling Carter.

28 snaps for Carter.  Doubled 15 times, chipped by the RB 2, and the rest were single blocked.

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

We saw it Thursday.  Someone posted all of Carter's snaps.   I went through it.   At the beginning of the game, the center looked to Fletcher's side for the doubles, but as the game went on, the center flipped and starting doubling Carter.

28 snaps for Carter.  Doubled 15 times, chipped by the RB 2, and the rest were single blocked.

That’s unreal in terms of immediate impact, wow.

1 hour ago, RLC said:

I still think Dallas wins the division. As long as we can get to the playoffs healthy and playing relatively well, we have a chance. For this roster, it's about the playoffs.

Why?  Because the Giants quit after they gave up a special teams and defensive TD?  That game told me more about the Giants than DAL.  The boys still have a lot of question marks at QB, OL, RB, and coaching.

48 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

I don't think hurries are an official, well kept stat, but I feel like 85 hurries is the equivalent of about 85 home runs in a baseball season.

5 hurries per game over the course of an NFL season would be insane. That’s one player hurrying the opposing QB on ~25% of their total pass attempts. :lol: 

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4 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Let’s grade the 2022 class after 2 games at the mini bye…I always say the year 2 class is the biggest impact on whether or not the team improves or regresses.

1. Davis.  Loved the pick, hated his rookie year.  He looked bad.  With apologies to Carter, I actually think he might have been the best DT on the team through 2 weeks.  I can’t put him over Sweat for defensive MVP, but he’s second on the list.  He’s been a revelation.

1. AJ Brown.  Not a second year player, but part of the class.  Also not a great start to the season.

2.  Jurgens.  I haven’t isolated to critique him much…but the running game has been exceptional and all of the pass protection struggles feel like they are coming from the tackles.  It seems he has been good.

3. Dean.  The durability criticism has come to haunt him.  Hasn’t helped us so far.

6. Johnson.  Nothing.

6. Calcaterra.  Nothing.

UDFA: Blankenship.  Pretty darn good in week 1.  I think he’ll have an OK season as a starter here.  Probably a bit of a downgrade from what we had last year, but the trust in him allowed them to draft talent elsewhere in 2023.

 

Overall, that looks like a good class.  

Calcaterra caught the balls thrown his way when Goedert was out last season.  I'd say he achieved JAG level, which would be a hit for a sixth-round pick.

Agreed.  Good class.

Looking at 2021...

1. Smith:  Stud.  Great pick.
2. Dickerson:  Probowl-level starter in the second round.  Great pick.
3. Williams:  Could be a starter on half the rosters in the league.  Great value in the third.
4. McPhearson:  Backup and ST contributor.  Perfect value in the fourth round.
5. Gainwell: Rotational RB.  Nice value in the fifth.
6. Tarron Jackson: Practice squad level.  About right for the sixth round.
6. Jacoby Stevens:  Miss
6. Patrick Johnson:  Rotational edge rusher this late is a hit in the sixth round.

Another really good looking class.

:offtopic:
 

Been watching old MLB over the past number of weeks and a couple of things really stand out:

 

1.  What a detestable POS George Brett was (I’d almost forgotten)

2.  Ken Griffey Jr. Is the greatest baseball talent I’ve ever watched

6 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

:offtopic:
 

Been watching old MLB over the past number of weeks and a couple of things really stand out:

 

1.  What a detestable POS George Brett was (I’d almost forgotten)

2.  Ken Griffey Jr. Is the greatest baseball talent I’ve ever watched

Pre-steroid bonds was pretty phenomenal too. I remember 1995ish we thought we were watching the 1v1 for title of greatest ever. But then Griffey fell off a cliff de to injuries and Bonds got way better… but in the worst way possible

29 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Why?  Because the Giants quit after they gave up a special teams and defensive TD?  That game told me more about the Giants than DAL.  The boys still have a lot of question marks at QB, OL, RB, and coaching.

The Dallas hype train will be even higher after the beat Wilson and the Jets on short rest on the road tomorrow. Then as usual the flaws will emerge as the season goes and they’ll choke in the end. Lather rinse repeat 

11 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Pre-steroid bonds was pretty phenomenal too. I remember 1995ish we thought we were watching the 1v1 for title of greatest ever. But then Griffey fell off a cliff de to injuries and Bonds got way better… but in the worst way possible

Because he said his prayers and took his vitamins??

12 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Pre-steroid bonds was pretty phenomenal too. I remember 1995ish we thought we were watching the 1v1 for title of greatest ever. But then Griffey fell off a cliff de to injuries and Bonds got way better… but in the worst way possible

Clean Bonds was almost as good a hitter as Griffey; he was a 25-30 HR guy and .285 or .290 hitter.  Griffey hit over .300 regularly and had just as much power.  Defensively, Bonds was never in the same class as Griffey even in his best day.  Griffey is one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time, in recent times only Devon White and Trout come to mind as comparable — although Garry Maddox was special, too.

Human gargoyle Bonds is disqualified from consideration of any kind.  There were lots of steroid users among players, but what Bonds, McGwire, Canseco, and Sosa did to their bodies was purely disgraceful.  IMO Pujols is part of that list as well.

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