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EMB Blog: 2023 Regular Season... and Post Season Blog

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I always say that most of a team’s regression or improvement is based on what they get out of their second year draft class. 
 

Jordan Davis: great boost this year and a huge leap from rookie year.

Cam Jurgens: a downgrade from last years starting RG.

Dean: nothing

Kyron Johnson: who?

Calcaterra: unable to provide serviceable depth.


That’s not bad…but it’s not very good either.  The development of recent draft classes fights against the aging of current vets to determine overall +\- in the talent ledger.  This draft class got pulled in the wrong direction.

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1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

I always say that most of a team’s regression or improvement is based on what they get out of their second year draft class. 
 

Jordan Davis: great boost this year and a huge leap from rookie year.

Cam Jurgens: a downgrade from last years starting RG.

Dean: nothing

Kyron Johnson: who?

Calcaterra: unable to provide serviceable depth.


That’s not bad…but it’s not very good either.  The development of recent draft classes fights against the aging of current vets to determine overall +\- in the talent ledger.  This draft class got pulled in the wrong direction.

I thought Jurgens was playing pretty well. Just getting banged up a bit 

3 hours ago, devpool said:

Idk if I would call any part of this season "cruising", they've been scratching and clawing to survive every game except the Dolphins game.

I don't think they've been holding anything back, and that's the big problem. We've seen who they are and what they've got, so far it's barely been enough against bad teams and it was outright embarrassing against good ones 

My point is come playoffs teams have a tendency to change their approach. Some teams add more run concepts and get a little more run heavy especially if the elements are involved... some add wrinkles to the game day playbooks for tendency breakers to help with predictability. These NFL offenses may start with a 1000 plays in the off season that they take a subset of throughout the year and shorten the play book even more on game day based on the opponent. There are some plans and plays that they keep in the back pocket for big time moments.

54 minutes ago, judunno said:

My point is come playoffs teams have a tendency to change their approach. Some teams add more run concepts and get a little more run heavy especially if the elements are involved... some add wrinkles to the game day playbooks for tendency breakers to help with predictability. These NFL offenses may start with a 1000 plays in the off season that they take a subset of throughout the year and shorten the play book even more on game day based on the opponent. There are some plans and plays that they keep in the back pocket for big time moments.

I have zero faith that this coaching staff has the ability to change any of the offense considering it's been mostly garbage for 14 weeks and has remained pretty much the same the entire time. 

I'd love to say it was just because they were winning but I truly believe that they think there's nothing wrong with it and it's all execution. 

I appreciate your optimism though, you and everyone else who is able to find some kind of hope that these people know what they're doing after their performance up to this point.

21 minutes ago, devpool said:

I have zero faith that this coaching staff has the ability to change any of the offense considering it's been mostly garbage for 14 weeks and has remained pretty much the same the entire time. 

I'd love to say it was just because they were winning but I truly believe that they think there's nothing wrong with it and it's all execution. 

I appreciate your optimism though, you and everyone else who is able to find some kind of hope that these people know what they're doing after their performance up to this point.

I already saw some changes vs Dallas. They just happened to suck in the red zone early, turn the ball over, had costly drops, and penalties. Shot themselves in the foot but conceptually the plays looked much better than what they did against the 9ers. I'd still run the ball more to try to get teams out of the two high safety look but they got down on the points pretty quickly.

Even if they are saving some parts of the playbook for the playoffs, I don’t think it’s going to magically make them look way better than what we have seen this year. That just doesn’t make much sense. They are what they are - a good team with some major flaws on defense and inconstancy on offense. Do they have a shot of going somewhere in the playoffs?! Sure, if all the stars align and they are the beneficiary of some fortunate bounces/plays, but if the opposing team (49ers, Cboys) bring their A game, we would most likely lose as our flaws on defense are too much to overcome. All in all those teams are just better and I hate saying that. Offense could be a wash, but there is a major difference on the defensive side of the ball. And sadly I don’t see that changing this year.

The Eagles are playing to win and get a high seed. They aren't intentionally holding their offense back outside of the runs through 3 guys BS. What would the point be? 

"Well we now have all road playoff games, but teehee look at these plays that might not even work!"

6 hours ago, judunno said:

I thought Jurgens was playing pretty well. Just getting banged up a bit 

I think so too but Seumalo was a mauler in the run game. Pass blocking wasn’t great though and I certainly can’t tell if that portion has been upgraded or downgraded. 

10 hours ago, eagle45 said:

Cam Jurgens: a downgrade from last years starting RG.

Don't agree with this statement

12 hours ago, BirdGang45 said:

i mean more so them being though about as being bad OC or DC. since Reich has been let go people think he is a bad OC. which i argue isnt the case at all. but i mean Reichs offense did let him down in Carolina. it also was because of a lack of talent. 

i mean Dan Quinns defenses in ATL had one good year. sure Staleys hasnt been elite ever lol. but i think Staley has a chance to end up taking the Dan Quinn road as a DC. to me there is a reason Dan Quinn hasnt felt the need to leave he probably knows being a HC just isnt for him.  we will see if he leaves this year. 

Did the offense let him down?  It was less than a full season, and they clearly drafted the wrong QB... and according to all reports against his judgement.   Getting fired by Carolina says nothing to me about Reich and everything about that horrid organization.  Staley and McCown getting kicked to the curb right after just supports that the organization is the issue.  His time in Indy, he dealt with 3 different starting QBs in 3 years... and the offense was pretty good... pretty much a top 10 offense, despite the constant turnover at QB.  During that time in Indy, they had 2 double digit seasons and just barely missed on a 3rd.

Compare that to Staley.  

 

I'm not a fan of most 'advanced metrics', but when they align to the eyeball test... its an easy thing to points to.  

Reich had a negative OSRS (Offensive Simple Rating System score) in Indy when Luck unexpectedly retired on him, and he had to use Jacoby Brissett at QB... and the other was when they decided to run with the broken down Matt Ryan at QB.  Was that on him or was that the organization?  Hard to say.  The owner jumped off Wentz... but did they have an alternative that was actually better?  

 

Staley, by comparison has had a negative DSRS (Defensive Simple Rating System) each year of his time with the Chargers.   And IMO, its easier to get the defense to be 'respectable' than the offense, because it is so QB driven.

@mattwill

i don’t recall if I’ve given you a prediction this week, if so ignore this.

Eagles 34

seahawks 13

Bonus: Eagles need to have a dominant performance and will have 300+ yards in the air and 100+ on the ground.

@mattwill

 

I don't have a good feel for how this game will go so I'll lean in and go with my heart

 

Eagles 27

Seahawks 24

 

Hurts with two rushing TDs, one in the last 5mins that ultimately wins the game.

Finally a Saturday with real football 

@mattwill 

Eagles - 26

Seahawks - 20

Nolan Smith sack

11 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I always say that most of a team’s regression or improvement is based on what they get out of their second year draft class. 
 

Jordan Davis: great boost this year and a huge leap from rookie year.

Cam Jurgens: a downgrade from last years starting RG.

Dean: nothing

Kyron Johnson: who?

Calcaterra: unable to provide serviceable depth.


That’s not bad…but it’s not very good either.  The development of recent draft classes fights against the aging of current vets to determine overall +\- in the talent ledger.  This draft class got pulled in the wrong direction.

Reed Blankenship erasure.

@mattwill

Hawks 27

Birds 13

For the 5th straight game, the offense scores 10 or fewer first half points. Metcalf and Lockett combine for 200+ receiving yards. 

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Don't agree with this statement

Based on what is he not a downgrade?

Stable or improved pass protection or running holes from the right side of the OL?  Stability/availability at RG?

The eagles will go back to their usual winning ways….ie beating the Seahawks by 4 because DK Metcalf drops a wide open TD pass as time expires despite the D’s best efforts to lose the game.

Eagles 28, Seahawks 24

@mattwill

12 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I always say that most of a team’s regression or improvement is based on what they get out of their second year draft class. 
 

Jordan Davis: great boost this year and a huge leap from rookie year.

Cam Jurgens: a downgrade from last years starting RG.

Dean: nothing

Kyron Johnson: who?

Calcaterra: unable to provide serviceable depth.


That’s not bad…but it’s not very good either.  The development of recent draft classes fights against the aging of current vets to determine overall +\- in the talent ledger.  This draft class got pulled in the wrong direction.

Highly misleading. We used a draft pick, two actually, to get A J Brown.

@mattwill

Eagles 20

Seahawks 17

Hurts with two rushing TDs

Also, F the NFL for flexing this game to Monday. 

Slay had knee surgery and will miss time but be back by end of regular season.

 

12 minutes ago, just relax said:

Highly misleading. We used a draft pick, two actually, to get A J Brown.

But at the same time, the use of a draft pick to add a veteran undermines one of the great things about draft picks... which is their cost.  They are very cheap for the first 4 years.  AJ was a high cost, both in draft pick and salary cap.  Usually 'expensive' players only cost one or the other.   This move has worked out, but it isn't sustainable long term and should never be the primary method used for roster building.

Slay is ducking DK 

Being out after only a few weeks sounds like a cleanup procedure to me. To remove loose bodies or whatever.

We're playing Seattle with Ricks or Ringo starting at outside corner.32e770de-8751-4176-93e4-1c30f3f93e22_text.gif.4f991b1e29fcb84062401681d7df6bc7.gif

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