2 hours ago, bpac55 said:

I don't buy any of the AJ Brown stuff right now, but just to play along...Marvin Harrison Jr. is sitting there at 3. AJ Brown, 22 and Tanner McKee to NE for pick 3.

And still a massive hole at CB among other positions

35 minutes ago, DawkinsOwnage03 said:

AJ Brown should be extended 

Nah. Prime trade candidate in 2024. 

We have to draft a WR on day 2 in this year's draft. 

4 minutes ago, mikemack8 said:

It's amazing to me, after so many years of having absolute trash at WR, that we now have TWO pro-bowl level receivers and people even want to entertain getting rid of one of them because of some tweets  You people deserve JJaw, Dorial Green-Beckham and Pinkston

No one wants to get rid of him. Just killing time before the draft and discussing what scenarios could be realistic if there was any truth to AJ Brown wanting to be a Patriot. I can't speak for the whole board, but I don't think anyone wants AJ Brown gone. 

5 minutes ago, Texas Eagle said:

And still a massive hole at CB among other positions

Any CB they draft is going to be on the bench as the position is very full right now, even if we are assuming Bradberry is a June 1st cut. Slay is CB1. Kelee Ringo is CB2 and they paid a pretty significant price to get him just to have him sit again. Slot CB is the winner of Hall/Maddox and the loser of that battle is the backup. Eli Ricks and Josh Jobe are outside CB depth.

Darius Slay, Kelee Ringo, Avonte Maddox, Tyler Hall, Eli Ricks, Josh Jobe, Zech McPhearson. 7 CB that you can argue should play in some capacity. 8 if Bradberry is somehow still here. 

Mekhi Garner, Mario Goodrich, Tiawan Mullen and Tristin McCollum are all PS guys.

The Eagles have done their due diligence with pre-draft CB visits so there's 100% interest from them. I still wouldn't put it past them to trade for a young veteran (Jaycee Horn?) rather than drafting a CB. 

 

3 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Any CB they draft is going to be on the bench as the position is very full right now, even if we are assuming Bradberry is a June 1st cut. Slay is CB1. Kelee Ringo is CB2 and they paid a pretty significant price to get him just to have him sit again. Slot CB is the winner of Hall/Maddox and the loser of that battle is the backup. Eli Ricks and Josh Jobe are outside CB depth.

Darius Slay, Kelee Ringo, Avonte Maddox, Tyler Hall, Eli Ricks, Josh Jobe, Zech McPhearson. 7 CB that you can argue should play in some capacity. 8 if Bradberry is somehow still here. 

Mekhi Garner, Mario Goodrich, Tiawan Mullen and Tristin McCollum are all PS guys.

The Eagles have done their due diligence with pre-draft CB visits so there's 100% interest from them. I still wouldn't put it past them to trade for a young veteran (Jaycee Horn?) rather than drafting a CB. 

 

Ricks, Maddox, Jobe, McPherson, and Hall are all at risk of being replaced.  They are all bubble players than can be replaced by better talent.  No roster locks there but for the lack of better talent to replace them. I'd say a CB to replace Slay/Bradberry is far more urgent this draft than drafting an RT to replace Lane.

As you can see, I have some defense tunnel vision going on.

45 minutes ago, paco said:

I'm going down a rabbit hole on this stupid "If we trade AJ Brown, what could we get" conversation and need some help @LeanMeanGM and @vikas83

First numbers, cuz the get me hot

Year	Age	Base Salary	Prorated Bonus		Per Game Roster Bonus	Workout Bonus		Guaranteed Salary		Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Signing	Option
2022	25	$986,000	$4,694,894	$0	$0	$0		$986,000		$5,680,894	2.5%
2023 📝	26	$1,080,000	$4,694,894	$2,034,000	$510,000	$240,000		$11,250,000		$8,318,894	3.6%
2024 📝	27	$1,125,000	$4,694,894	$5,859,000	$510,000	$240,000		$21,000,000		$12,380,894	4.8%		$43,172,683	($30,791,789)
2025	28	$15,250,000	$4,694,894	$5,859,000	$510,000	$240,000		$0		$26,505,894	10.2%		$15,443,789	$11,062,105
2026	29	$30,250,000	$4,646,895	$5,859,000	$510,000	$240,000		$0		$41,505,895	14.6%		$8,714,895	$32,791,000
2027 📝	30	Void	$0	$5,859,000	Void	Void		Void		$9,684,000	3.1%		$2,034,000	$7,650,000
2028	31	Void	$0	$3,825,000	Void	Void		Void		$0	--		$0	$0

 

1) The Guaranteed salary of $21 mil but a cap hit of only $12 mil is throwing me off.  

AJ Brown signed a four year, $100 million extension with the Titans. Per PFT, Brown received $57.22 million in guarantees of which $40 million is guaranteed at signing. There are annual per game roster bonuses and workouts in the contract. Brown's salary for the first two years of the contract are guaranteed as well as $3.779 million of his 2024 salary. If on the roster on the 3rd day of the 2023 league year the remainder of his 2024 salary, including workout and roster bonuses will be guaranteed.

Ok, but that still doesn't add up to 21?  I'm probably missing\forgetting something stupid here and I haven't had any caffeine.  

 

2) Putting #1 aside for a sec, if we trade him we eat all the prorated money. $43 million.  IF we were going to trade him and IF we made the room to eat that $43 million hit, wouldn't that make him easily worth a 1st?  The team trading him has a top 5 WR under contract for 3 years for relative peanuts.

 

 

Conclusion: AJ Brown and Tanner McKee for #3!

I think this is pretty close. I'm always about 20k off on the option bonus proration. Looks like most of 2024 is an option bonus of $19.125mm

 

 

Alec Lewis has a terrific article in The Athletic about drafting: NFL teams know the best way to draft, so why aren’t they doing it?

The short answer is TRADE BACK, NEVER UP.

Interestingly, the article makes the argument that "The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.”

 

Guys. There's $42mm in dead cap if we trade AJ at the draft. 

IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

4 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Guys. There's $42mm in dead cap if we trade AJ at the draft. 

IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

4 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Guys. There's $42mm in dead cap if we trade AJ at the draft. 

IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

The only way it'd happen is if it happened after 6/1, in which case the dead cap would be feasible.  Unfortunately, that would also mean that we'd end up with a draft pick next year, not this year.

Not worried about AJ.  Some elite athletes are just like this.  As long as he keeps producing on the field, he can do whatever he wants to do off the field.  When his production goes down, then he will not be worth this drama.  

6 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Guys. There's $42mm in dead cap if we trade AJ at the draft. 

IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

what about agreeing to a new deal first? possible or no?

8 minutes ago, just relax said:

Alec Lewis has a terrific article in The Athletic about drafting: NFL teams know the best way to draft, so why aren’t they doing it?

The short answer is TRADE BACK, NEVER UP.

 

BS.  I cite that 2023 Houston Texans as a counter example. 

I'm smarter than Alec Lewis.  Woo!!

 

 

17 minutes ago, Freshmilk said:

Ricks, Maddox, Jobe, McPherson, and Hall are all at risk of being replaced.  They are all bubble players than can be replaced by better talent.  No roster locks there but for the lack of better talent to replace them. I'd say a CB to replace Slay/Bradberry is far more urgent this draft than drafting an RT to replace Lane.

As you can see, I have some defense tunnel vision going on.

No arguments from me on replacing a CB before they have to replace Lane. I'm just looking at how the build their rosters. They LOVE what they consider value of UDFA, waiver wire or trades for CB rather than draft picks. I think they look at Eli Ricks as the equivalent to a 4th/5th round pick even though he was an UDFA and you know they love Josh Jobe, mainly for his ST ability. 

Point I was making was even if they draft a CB, he doesn't have a clear road to playing time.

22 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I think this is pretty close. I'm always about 20k off on the option bonus proration. Looks like most of 2024 is an option bonus of $19.125mm

 

 

Thanks.  Option bonuses always screw me up.  I need to do a better job there.

6 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

No arguments from me on replacing a CB before they have to replace Lane. I'm just looking at how the build their rosters. They LOVE what they consider value of UDFA, waiver wire or trades for CB rather than draft picks. I think they look at Eli Ricks as the equivalent to a 4th/5th round pick even though he was an UDFA and you know they love Josh Jobe, mainly for his ST ability. 

Point I was making was even if they draft a CB, he doesn't have a clear road to playing time.

Yeah, they do love them some UDFA CBs going up against first round WRs.  Makes me nuts.

17 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

what about agreeing to a new deal first? possible or no?

I mean, never say never with Howie, but we have deferred $42mm in money that has been paid to him. If you trade him, you have to take that charge. I've never seen a way around previously deferred money.

Also - trading AJ Brown would be monumentally stupid. People are this upset he put up a Brady pic?

26 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

Guys. There's $42mm in dead cap if we trade AJ at the draft. 

IT IS NOT HAPPENING.

It's called using cap space as an asset.  Sam Hinkie is SO disappointed in you right now.

Just now, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Why are people even talking about trading AJ Brown? Restructure 2025 and extend in 2026. Would make both year cap hits under 20m$, and by the time the cap rises those years it’ll be a bargain. The dude is 26

Because it's mid April.

4 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

I mean, never say never with Howie, but we have deferred $42mm in money that has been paid to him. If you trade him, you have to take that charge. I've never seen a way around previously deferred money.

Also - trading AJ Brown would be monumentally stupid. People are this upset he put up a Brady pic?

I dont think anyone is upset. Just for the heck of it, discussing what a trade would look like. 

24 minutes ago, EricAllenPick6 said:

BS.  I cite that 2023 Houston Texans as a counter example. 

I'm smarter than Alec Lewis.  Woo!!

 

 

There are 31 other teams.

What would you trade DeVonta Smith for?

2 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

I dont think anyone is upset. Just for the heck of it, discussing what a trade would look like. 

Gotcha. The cap implications make it a virtual impossibility. Next offseason is a different story. 

Something I could see happening. If Howie wants to move up for a corner and the cost would be 22 plus a 2nd, he might call Denver and think if I'm offering 22 and a 2nd for Arnold/Mitchell I might as well call Denver and offer that same package for Surtain. Don't know if Denver would do it though.

People always want to do a hypothetical trade of a key player and claim it's out of boredom every offseason

1 hour ago, bpac55 said:

Any CB they draft is going to be on the bench as the position is very full right now, even if we are assuming Bradberry is a June 1st cut. Slay is CB1. Kelee Ringo is CB2 and they paid a pretty significant price to get him just to have him sit again. Slot CB is the winner of Hall/Maddox and the loser of that battle is the backup. Eli Ricks and Josh Jobe are outside CB depth.

Darius Slay, Kelee Ringo, Avonte Maddox, Tyler Hall, Eli Ricks, Josh Jobe, Zech McPhearson. 7 CB that you can argue should play in some capacity. 8 if Bradberry is somehow still here. 

Mekhi Garner, Mario Goodrich, Tiawan Mullen and Tristin McCollum are all PS guys.

The Eagles have done their due diligence with pre-draft CB visits so there's 100% interest from them. I still wouldn't put it past them to trade for a young veteran (Jaycee Horn?) rather than drafting a CB. 

 

Ringo is not keeping a first round draft pick off the field.  The Eagles might have used a 2024 3rd round pick to draft him, but he was evaluated by the league as a 4th round talent by being drafted #105 overall.