Don’t be surprised if Howie tries to trade for Bryce Young. It’s a classic Howie move to trade for a distressed asset

Would give him insurance in case Hurts doesn’t work out.

Even if you want to say none of the 2020 QBs are elite, you still have quality, above average NFL starters in Burrow, Herbert and Love, with Tua as well other than the concussions. Throw in Hurts from round 2, and that's 4-5 quality QBs from one draft. Since then, it's been a disaster.

3 minutes ago, RLC said:

Heading into tonight's game, Jalen Hurts has more passing yards than Herbert, Fields, Caleb...
He has more passing TDs than Goff, Lawrence, Purdy, Stafford, etc.

Passing is challenging in the NFL right now. It's a running game league.

The other thing is that Defenses have adjusted their play, personnel, and scheme to stop the pass.

Gone are the days of a base defence with 250lb Linebackers and box safeties. Every team now runs a nickel defense most of the time with undersized fastbalzzz at linebackers.

Corners have also adjusted really well to the rules regarding PI and coverage.

Everyone knew that the pendulum would eventually swing too far to the pass game, and a correction would be needed. We are there.

23 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I think it's also teams overvaluing and overdrafting QBs. It used to be common that you had one or two QBs being drafted in the top 10 in most drafts, but even outside of that, each draft class as a whole might produce a couple decent passers while most were always going to be busts/backups/journeymen. Just this past April, we saw QBs being taken with 6 of the first 12 picks. When that many QBs go that early, it shouldn't be a surprise if 4 or 5 of them end up being disappointments relative to their draft position based on the numbers game alone. You kinda touched on it with the Young situation, but owners are more impatient with coaches, who are in turn going to be more impatient with prospects. Long gone are the days where an Aaron Rodgers (who was the second QB off the board late in the first round) would sit for 3 years before making his first start.

 

17 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The counter is we are now looking at 4 drafts where only 1 top QB has been produced. Going 0 for 5 in 2021 is almost impossible. 2022 -- OK, there was only one first round QB, but he busted. 2023 had one hit and 2 misses (so far). So 1 out of 8 if we ignore 2024 (Caleb not exactly looking promising). That's a very low hit rate. And we're talking about being even competent, NFL starters.

Piggy-backing on WGB's post above, teams are desperate to find a QB and we're seeing guys go much higher than they probably should. Anyone who watched Anthony Richardson at Florida or Bo Nix's five-year college career know that these guys didn't deserve to go that high. Richardson is a total experiment who has raw traits, but was not a good college QB. I was even surprised at JJ McCarthy going as high as he did to Minnesota. So when you have teams getting desperate and reaching on guys who should probably be second or third round selections, the bust rate is going to increase. 

It's easy for college QBs to look great when maybe one player on the opposing defense would start in the NFL.

The speed of the game, the physicality, and, most importantly, the schemes are at a different level.

14 minutes ago, RLC said:

Heading into tonight's game, Jalen Hurts has more passing yards than Herbert, Fields, Caleb...
He has more passing TDs than Goff, Lawrence, Purdy, Stafford, etc.

Passing is challenging in the NFL right now. It's a running game league.

Maybe a bit of recency bias? It's more challenging only relative to the gaudy number QBs had been putting up for the past decade or so. Prior to that, it wasn't as common to see so many 4,000 yd passers. Obviously the rules have disproportionally benefitted offenses so defensive coordinators have had to figure out other ways to adjust. Maybe they are playing coverages more conservatively, fewer defenders in the box, and choosing to take away deeper routes while being more willing to give up shorter passes underneath. Deaths by 1,000 cuts is what some might call Bend Don't Break. Not sure, don't have data on it, but the trend could be as simple as thinking that giving up shorther passes in between the 20s results in an increase in offensive plays, which mean more opportunities for a drive killing offensive penalty or lucky bounce on a fumble or tipped pass at the LOS or sack, etc.

3 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

 

Piggy-backing on WGB's post above, teams are desperate to find a QB and we're seeing guys go much higher than they probably should. Anyone who watched Anthony Richardson at Florida or Bo Nix's five-year college career know that these guys didn't deserve to go that high. Richardson is a total experiment who has raw traits, but was not a good college QB. I was even surprised at JJ McCarthy going as high as he did to Minnesota. So when you have teams getting desperate and reaching on guys who should probably be second or third round selections, the bust rate is going to increase. 

I think that's definitely part of it -- a lot of these guys didn't deserve to be 1st round picks. But I'd highlight 2 other things. First, the college emphasis on the spread game has these guys basically not making any reads. They get to the line and then look to the sideline for the coach to make the call based on the defense. It's one read and then run if it's not there. Second, as @Connecticut Eagle pointed out, these guys are making athletic wow plays in college that won't work against grown men in the NFL. See Caleb's pick last night after running around and then heaving it down the field -- that crap works against Arizona State, but not in the NFL.

CBP lot is still not open.  I'm sitting at the locked gate.  You guys are liars!!!!

If we go back and try to be fair about it, it feels like these are the guys who SHOULD have been 1st round QBs based on prior standards.

2021 -- Lawrence and maybe Fields. Wilson was too raw from BYU, Lance barely played in college, and Mac was a system guy on a loaded Alabama team

2022 -- none

2023 -- Young and Stroud. Young would have been taken in the 1st round based off his college career, IMO, despite his physical limitations

2024 -- Williams, Daniels, maybe Maye. Penix, McCarthy and Nix wouldn't have been 1st rounders back in the day.

I do wonder if everyone is looking for the QB on a rookie deal cheat code, so that leads to QBs being overdrafted.

Chiefs need a RB. Could see a trade for Miles Sanders being an option 

I have to say I really feel for Bryce Young. Benched after 2 weeks of the year. I know he’s been bad and he’s struggled but that’s a trash team. Not many QBs are going to struggle behind that OL with no real weapons to throw to. 

I’m not saying Young would work out to be a star but the Panthers have absolutely mishandled this.

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

First, the college emphasis on the spread game has these guys basically not making any reads. They get to the line and then look to the sideline for the coach to make the call based on the defense.

I haven't followed college ball as closely as I used to, so I don't know how many of the QBs in question necessarily came from offenses with a check-with-me system. But if so, they still have to make post-snap reads even for those super simplified zone-read-option / RPO plays. I agree though that the effectiveness of those spread concepts at both the college and NFL game has basically made scouting for conventional pocket passers much more difficult.

What used to be exclusive to teams like WV or Oregon 20 years ago, these same concepts / looks are used by quite a few NFL teams now, and it's sort of a chicken / egg scenario on why that's come to pass. Is it because the OCs had to adjust to the strengths/weaknesses of prospects, or is it more about creative ways to exploit defensive weaknesses with them regardless of who you have at QB? Maybe a combination of both, but might be hard to make a case either way seeing as how even the best QBs in the NFL have been asked to run plays out of some of these looks with varying success. 

A couple decades ago, it used to be that a QB who primarily ran the option at the college leve had no shot in the NFL and would never be drafted high because of their limitations / stunted development, while QBs from a "pro-style" offense had a major leg up. Now those terms are becoming less meaningful because of how many NFL offenses utilize those same spread concepts we see from the college game (we can thank Chip and Rich Rod for starting that trend at the NFL level.)

2 hours ago, just relax said:

If they did it right it was by accident not planning. They are no different from every other team throwing the high draft pick QB into the fire. They did it with Wentz lest we forget. The only reason they didn't do it with Hurts was because Wentz was the clear #1 at the start of the season. Only after his wheels came off did we turn to Hurts.

To be fair, we had a decent OL when we drafted Wentz. Peters and Lane at tackle, Kelce and Brooks inside. Thats 3 hall of famers and a multi-time pro bowler.

42 minutes ago, D-Shiznit said:

Don’t be surprised if Howie tries to trade for Bryce Young. It’s a classic Howie move to trade for a distressed asset

Would give him insurance in case Hurts doesn’t work out.

No way I see that happening.  It’s not like he’s addicted to just any former high draft pick that doesn’t stick with his original team.  There has to be at least some glimmer of hope… Like with Becton.  I’m not sure how anyone could watch Bryce Young and see any hope he will work at the NFL level.  He’s 2-16, I think both victories were in the last seconds.  He’s converted 2 of his last 22 3rd down attempts.  

8 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I have to say I really feel for Bryce Young. Benched after 2 weeks of the year. I know he’s been bad and he’s struggled but that’s a trash team. Not many QBs are going to struggle behind that OL with no real weapons to throw to. 

I’m not saying Young would work out to be a star but the Panthers have absolutely mishandled this.

Panthers mishandled the draft.  Coaches wanted Stroud; owner wanted Bryce Young.

Young is 5'10" and 180 lbs.  He showed up at he Combine carrying water weight and someone from the Panthers believed it.  

40 minutes ago, D-Shiznit said:

The other thing is that Defenses have adjusted their play, personnel, and scheme to stop the pass.

Gone are the days of a base defence with 250lb Linebackers and box safeties. Every team now runs a nickel defense most of the time with undersized fastbalzzz at linebackers.

Corners have also adjusted really well to the rules regarding PI and coverage.

Everyone knew that the pendulum would eventually swing too far to the pass game, and a correction would be needed. We are there.

Yep. Which is why the pendulum has swung back to RBs, especially power backs.

Howie as usual is ahead of the curve, is willing to pay for Barkley but not Swift.

You want to play nickel against the Eagles? Fine, I'll have Barkley overpower DBs in the open field.

The key is patience, if DCs want to play a fast, undersized D with 2 safeties deep, run and dink and dunk down the field. If they have big run stuffer tackles, run off-tackle, if they have average tackles, run inside zone all night. Wear them down then the pass rushers aren't as quick off the snap.

52 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

The 2021 QB class is comically terrible. It's hard to believe they are all this bad.

Lawrence (1) -- other than a ~8 game stretch at the end of 2022, he's been terrible. Everyone gave him a pass because of the Urban Meyer debacle his rookie year, but his regression since the end of 2022 has been unreal. Misses open receivers, takes bad sacks, and has lost his last 7 starts. No idea WTF the Jags were thinking with that contract. Oh, and it seems Doug hates him. Doug gonna get fired because Lawrence is trash.

Zach Wilson (2) -- laughably bad with the Jets, but every QB looks bad with that organization. Maybe Darnold gives him some hope, but can't get on the field in Denver. Was arguably the worst QB in the league when he played.

Trey Lance (3) -- At least Wilson got on the field...this guy can't be better than the 3rd QB in Dallas. Even Shanahan couldn't make him a competent QB.

Justin Fields (11) -- Dumped by the Bears for potentially another bust. Doing enough to not lose games for the Steelers, but basically a RB.

Mac Jones (15) -- When you're getting benched for Bailey Zappe...

Has there ever been another class this terrible? 5 1st round QBs and they all bust?

I'd say 2021 was the most underwhelming but 2022 was way worse of a class.

Pickett, Willis, Ridder, Corral, Zappe, Howell, Oladokun, Thompson, Purdy.

Besides Thompson and Purdy, not a single one of those guys is with the team that drafted them just 2 years later. Purdy is the big elephant in the room that might single handily beat out the 2021 class though. Hard to say.

26 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

If we go back and try to be fair about it, it feels like these are the guys who SHOULD have been 1st round QBs based on prior standards.

2021 -- Lawrence and maybe Fields. Wilson was too raw from BYU, Lance barely played in college, and Mac was a system guy on a loaded Alabama team

2022 -- none

2023 -- Young and Stroud. Young would have been taken in the 1st round based off his college career, IMO, despite his physical limitations

2024 -- Williams, Daniels, maybe Maye. Penix, McCarthy and Nix wouldn't have been 1st rounders back in the day.

I do wonder if everyone is looking for the QB on a rookie deal cheat code, so that leads to QBs being overdrafted.

There used to be a 50 game rule for college QBs, b/c it takes time to develop the mental skills at QB.

Now you see kids having one or two good years and going pro with maybe 25-30 starts. And it shows.

I think Arch will start at least two years at Texas b/c Peyton will warn him if he goes #1, it'll be a bad situation, so he better be a polished QB going in.

52 minutes ago, D-Shiznit said:

Don’t be surprised if Howie tries to trade for Bryce Young. It’s a classic Howie move to trade for a distressed asset

Would give him insurance in case Hurts doesn’t work out.

I don't subscribe to that line of thinking.  I suspect that if Howie had the option to have Tanner McKee or Bryce Young, he would choose McKee.

30 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

CBP lot is still not open.  I'm sitting at the locked gate.  You guys are liars!!!!

Live look at @HazletonEagle

Good site to check out where QBs were selected in each draft class.

https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Just 2 years ago but I had forgotten that Pickett was actually the first QB off the board at #20 and the next QB wasn't selected until the 3rd round. Talk about an outlier.

32 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

CBP lot is still not open.  I'm sitting at the locked gate.  You guys are liars!!!!

You didn't mention Bacarty's name?  There shouldn't be a problem ..... 

28 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

Chiefs need a RB. Could see a trade for Miles Sanders being an option 

They are bringing Kareem Hunt in tomorrow 

I would have kept Johnson instead of keeping 6 ILB's

Or just cut Byron Young who sucks, but Howie loves geeking out over snatching depreciated assets who were never good to begin with.