1 hour ago, just relax said:

Right. We’re doomed. He’s a bum. Beaten out by a nomination. All the returns are in.

Superb analysis. Beat me to it and said it better than I could. To expand, Toth may not be very good player but he knows how to play center; he knows the calls, he’s seen the blitzes, splits, stunts, etc. not as well as Kelce but better than a rookie. The center’s job is a ****. The folks who blow Toth off are demonstrating a certain level of ignorance. Who better? Dickerson at center is a bad trade off. Now you suck at LG. But, then again, there are some folks here who claim to know better than Stout. I’m sure they do, as do we all. I should make a list to salute them but I don’t feel like embarrassing them. They’re just having a bad day.

To be fair, we all knew he should play Fred Johnson at RT, and he put in Pryor instead which was a disaster. Stoutland happens to be human, which means he can be wrong at times.

1 hour ago, just relax said:

Right. We’re doomed. He’s a bum. Beaten out by a nomination. All the returns are in.

Superb analysis. Beat me to it and said it better than I could. To expand, Toth may not be very good player but he knows how to play center; he knows the calls, he’s seen the blitzes, splits, stunts, etc. not as well as Kelce but better than a rookie. The center’s job is a ****. The folks who blow Toth off are demonstrating a certain level of ignorance. Who better? Dickerson at center is a bad trade off. Now you suck at LG. But, then again, there are some folks here who claim to know better than Stout. I’m sure they do, as do we all. I should make a list to salute them but I don’t feel like embarrassing them. They’re just having a bad day.

No one claimed to know more than Stoutland. Several people questioned his decisions in regards to Toth. It’s a message board. just relax.

I've been wanting to explore this for awhile.

I suppose I'm probably not the only Eagles fan who has the sense that anytime an opposing team is set to kick a really (and I mean really) long field goal, it's almost certain that it's going to be successful. It's freakish how often it seems to happen. So I did some statistical research to see if what I sense is in fact a reality. It turns out, it is.

Here's the deal. In the NFL, the field goal distance where it's pretty much a 50/50 "make or miss" is 55-yards. Anything shorter than that, the odds are that the kick will be made. Anything further than that, it's more likely to be a miss. That 55-yard mark has been the standard for some time now. Granted, it's possible that that break even point might have drifted slightly to 56 yards, but as a rule of thumb, you should consider 55 be that key distance.

Okay, so I went back to 2010 (pretty much an arbitrary date, but it's my research project so I can do what I want) and checked the records for all field goal attempts by Eagles opponents of 56 yards and longer. Including the 2010 and 2025 seasons (thus far), there have been eighteen attempts. FOURTEEN have been made. That's 14-of-18 from distances where it should be more likely to be missed than made.

I looked through an old college math textbook to find a binomial chart to shed some light on this. Basically, the odds of flipping a coin eighteen times and having it come up heads (or tails) fourteen or more times is between 1 and 2%. That's it. And that's for an "even chance" scenario, not one where the odds are much lower.

So yeah, it's pretty freaking ridiculous. And I just knew when that Vikings kicker was going to attempt a 59-yarder last week that he was going to make it. I just knew it. What's particularly hilarious is that just last night that same kicker was SHORT from 53-yards. WHILE KICKING INDOORS!!!! I guess because it wasn't the Eagles he was facing, he no longer had super powers.

End rant.

27 minutes ago, Waiting4Someday said:

Sanker couldn’t tackle in college and still can’t, Watts is playing well but is doing different stuff - think Blankenship, we aren’t matching Reed on Justin Jefferson in a bunch (Mukuba gets that nickel type assignment).

Sanker looks good for the Saints so far.

1 hour ago, just relax said:

Right. We’re doomed. He’s a bum. Beaten out by a nomination. All the returns are in.

Superb analysis. Beat me to it and said it better than I could. To expand, Toth may not be very good player but he knows how to play center; he knows the calls, he’s seen the blitzes, splits, stunts, etc. not as well as Kelce but better than a rookie. The center’s job is a ****. The folks who blow Toth off are demonstrating a certain level of ignorance. Who better? Dickerson at center is a bad trade off. Now you suck at LG. But, then again, there are some folks here who claim to know better than Stout. I’m sure they do, as do we all. I should make a list to salute them but I don’t feel like embarrassing them. They’re just having a bad day.

Just gloss over the very first few words of the first line that says, "it's early" and the second line that says "it's gonna have to play out", maybe you've been watching to much o-line tape and your eyes got crossed (which I do enjoy by the way so by all means keep watching)

HURTS WAS 3-1 WHEN EITHER DEVONTA OR AJ WERE OUT IN 2024 AND 0-1 WHEN BOTH WERE OUT.

HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN 4-0 BUT SAQUON DROPPED THE BALL.

Most of the 4th quarter vs New Orleans was without AJ and DeVonta. How did that turn out?

Did he find another option to throw to?

How dare he win a Super Bowl on a team that went 14-1 in the last 15 games that he played without injury.

We could hand it off to Saquon.

We could have Hurts run the ball.

We can toss it to DeVonta.

We can toss it to AJ.

How about Goedert?

NO, WE HAVE TO THROW IT TO OUR 6TH OPTION SO THE CLOWNS ARE NOT SAD THAT HURTS IS NOT GETTING HIM THE BALL!

Why try to win games when you can try to establish the Dotson instead?

The Chiefs did a pretty good job on D in the Super Bowl, that would have been a good time to work Dotson in on a couple huge plays.

Oh, that's exactly what Hurts did.

Who scored the first TD for the 2024 Eagles in the playoffs?

Dig into this game until you get a clue.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201001100nwe.htm

What a pathetic chump New England had at QB. He could not dominate without Welker. All he had was Moss at WR1, Watson at TE, a young Edelman, and Kevin Faulk out of the backfield.

Maybe this whole QB thing is difficult?

Hurts threw for 311 vs New Orleans without AJ.

He has Atlanta beat without AJ but Saquon dropped the ball.

The Tampa game was not just a game without AJ. It was a road game without AJ, DeVonta, and Lane.

What kind of argument is:

"The 2023 Eagles were such a stable organization at the end of the year. I am so disappointed in Hurts not rallying them on the road without AJ"

This is flat earth level worthless argumentation at this point.

Just say you all hate Hurts and move on.

21 minutes ago, greendestiny27 said:

Sanker looks good for the Saints so far.

Depends on what you’re looking at I guess; he avoids making tackles. Perhaps he’s learned if you don’t try at all you won’t be credited for missing them… here’s an example on the Swift TD from this past weekend. If you want to see more there’s a 3 minute video of Swift highlights from this game, where Jonas stays out of the action. It’s very odd for safety. I’ve seen it before in CBs like DRC, who think it’s their job to cover only.

2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

on Aj, he is a smart person. I think the overlooked issue in this is AJ’s future contract whether he here or somewhere else in 2027. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s already looking at 2027 as he’s negotiating for a new contract (or next offseason negotiating for an extension know he has basically got little guarantee $ in 2027) with another team. He has $4 million in guaranteed money for 2027.

Imo in his mind if he knows his production declining from 2023 to 2024 to 2025 to 2026 is going to be used against him at the negotiating table. It’s going to hurt him even if it isn’t necessarily him being a declining player. Along with the fact in 2027, he’s gonna be 30 and with the way he plays the position (had some durability issues with titans and now with eagles). Those are things that are going to be used against him.

So there’s part of me that understands where he is coming from as it’s potentially sizable loss of money down the road and likely his last big payday. He only has so much time in the NFL with how he plays and at his position to cash in. He’s probably looking at 2027 or next offseason when asking for more guaranteed money/reworking his contract as his last big payday.

I’m not saying he’s right or wrong for thinking that way or viewing it that way. however i think this is setting up for this offseason where he’s going to ask for more guaranteed money/rework his deal this offseason or asking to allow him to seek a trade to try and get an extension from another team while doing so.

He should not get another contract here, we're going to end up paying big money for a guy who is probably going to fall off a cliff in 2-3 years

@mattwill

No AJ, no offense. Defense is better this time though

Eagles 14 giants 17

@mattwill

Eagles 29

Giants 27

Eagles overcome a 10 point deficit in the 2nd half quarter to win the game.

So NBA got hit with a gambling scandal I’ve been trying to tell you all this crap is rigged Nobody really wants to believe it. Whats going on in the nba is the tip of the iceberg, but don’t worry they’ll find a way to save face too much money involved.

7 hours ago, jojodancer said:

The way I look at it. If Howie was willing to trade for Parsons, then Becton & Williams was possible last offseason, no matter what cap experts on this board think. And I rather pay both of them and then have worked from there. So you don't sign Jurgens long term at that time and most likely lose Davis long term. I'm okay with that scenario. And was then. I like the trenches always being stocked. That failed this year. Still had Davis and Ojomo for 2 more years in my scenario. A solid 3 year Superbowl window right there on paper, at mimimum, with excellent line depth. And Steen as a great backup who would play a bunch with our injuries. And Jurgens you just wait on after only one full season starting at Center. And a bad back. Not even a home town early discount there. Signed for Top 2 Center bucks.

Is there a DE outside the top 2 or 3 you would trade for Carter? I wouldn't. Getting there from the outside is great but if you can collapse the middle it's a nightmare for QBs. When you have two like Carter and Williams you get the game vs the Chiefs in February.

I was shocked at how much he got from NE but he is worth it. If I could pick him or Parsons to magically land on the Eagles I'm picking MW. Talent wise that isn't a good pick but impact wise I've seen the one be dominating in the SB and the other go home early.

1 hour ago, jwill2420 said:

So NBA got hit with a gambling scandal I’ve been trying to tell you all this crap is rigged Nobody really wants to believe it. Whats going on in the nba is the tip of the iceberg, but don’t worry they’ll find a way to save face too much money involved.

How do these indictments mean the NBA is rigged?

A poker game and a couple points shavers? I’d be more shocked if there weren’t a few people doing bad stuff. You fill a room with a random 100 people and there’s gonna be all sorts of anecdotal crazies in there.

3 hours ago, jwill2420 said:

So NBA got hit with a gambling scandal I’ve been trying to tell you all this crap is rigged Nobody really wants to believe it. Whats going on in the nba is the tip of the iceberg, but don’t worry they’ll find a way to save face too much money involved.

We've won 2 super bowls in 10 years, if it's rigged then i'm pretty happy with how it had played out considering we went 50 years without a championship and some teams have waited longer. Glad the rigged pendulum is swinging the other direction now

7 hours ago, SkippyX said:

HURTS WAS 3-1 WHEN EITHER DEVONTA OR AJ WERE OUT IN 2024 AND 0-1 WHEN BOTH WERE OUT.

HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN 4-0 BUT SAQUON DROPPED THE BALL.

Most of the 4th quarter vs New Orleans was without AJ and DeVonta. How did that turn out?

Did he find another option to throw to?

How dare he win a Super Bowl on a team that went 14-1 in the last 15 games that he played without injury.

We could hand it off to Saquon.

We could have Hurts run the ball.

We can toss it to DeVonta.

We can toss it to AJ.

How about Goedert?

NO, WE HAVE TO THROW IT TO OUR 6TH OPTION SO THE CLOWNS ARE NOT SAD THAT HURTS IS NOT GETTING HIM THE BALL!

Why try to win games when you can try to establish the Dotson instead?

The Chiefs did a pretty good job on D in the Super Bowl, that would have been a good time to work Dotson in on a couple huge plays.

Oh, that's exactly what Hurts did.

Who scored the first TD for the 2024 Eagles in the playoffs?

Dig into this game until you get a clue.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201001100nwe.htm

What a pathetic chump New England had at QB. He could not dominate without Welker. All he had was Moss at WR1, Watson at TE, a young Edelman, and Kevin Faulk out of the backfield.

Maybe this whole QB thing is difficult?

Hurts threw for 311 vs New Orleans without AJ.

He has Atlanta beat without AJ but Saquon dropped the ball.

The Tampa game was not just a game without AJ. It was a road game without AJ, DeVonta, and Lane.

What kind of argument is:

"The 2023 Eagles were such a stable organization at the end of the year. I am so disappointed in Hurts not rallying them on the road without AJ"

This is flat earth level worthless argumentation at this point.

Just say you all hate Hurts and move on.

There’s a lot to unpack here, but it sounds like AJ being out shouldn’t be an excuse for the offense being dysfunctional in the upcoming game.

We’ll see, it’s a big drop off from AJ to Dotson/Metchie. Smitty and Goedert are reliable but now the Giants defense can focus more attention on them.

10 hours ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Also, I’m sure on the second day he didn’t practice the Giants considered the possibility and likely shifted planning. So it again minimizes the impact.

^This

The whole notion that DC's tear up their game plans and start over from scratch because of an injured player is so mind-numbingly ridiculous. It would be one thing if it were Hurts being held out, and now a different type of QB like McKee steps in, but that's not the case here.

Love AJ and what he brings to the offense, but he's not having that large of an impact on what the DC is prepping for outside of some specific coverages in the red zone or 3rd down.

7 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

^This

The whole notion that DC's tear up their game plans and start over from scratch because of an injured player is so mind-numbingly ridiculous. It would be one thing if it were Hurts being held out, and now a different type of QB like McKee steps in, but that's not the case here.

Love AJ and what he brings to the offense, but he's not having that large of an impact on what the DC is prepping for outside of some specific coverages in the red zone or 3rd down.

Holland, Adebo and potentially Burns out is probably the bigger concern over there…

19 hours ago, Sack that QB said:

McLane said earlier he was on track to play. Wonder when he hurt it, I mean he got the first down on the last play of the game. Well one of the last plays.

He hurt it on social media after the game.

9 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I've been wanting to explore this for awhile.

I suppose I'm probably not the only Eagles fan who has the sense that anytime an opposing team is set to kick a really (and I mean really) long field goal, it's almost certain that it's going to be successful. It's freakish how often it seems to happen. So I did some statistical research to see if what I sense is in fact a reality. It turns out, it is.

Here's the deal. In the NFL, the field goal distance where it's pretty much a 50/50 "make or miss" is 55-yards. Anything shorter than that, the odds are that the kick will be made. Anything further than that, it's more likely to be a miss. That 55-yard mark has been the standard for some time now. Granted, it's possible that that break even point might have drifted slightly to 56 yards, but as a rule of thumb, you should consider 55 be that key distance.

Okay, so I went back to 2010 (pretty much an arbitrary date, but it's my research project so I can do what I want) and checked the records for all field goal attempts by Eagles opponents of 56 yards and longer. Including the 2010 and 2025 seasons (thus far), there have been eighteen attempts. FOURTEEN have been made. That's 14-of-18 from distances where it should be more likely to be missed than made.

I looked through an old college math textbook to find a binomial chart to shed some light on this. Basically, the odds of flipping a coin eighteen times and having it come up heads (or tails) fourteen or more times is between 1 and 2%. That's it. And that's for an "even chance" scenario, not one where the odds are much lower.

So yeah, it's pretty freaking ridiculous. And I just knew when that Vikings kicker was going to attempt a 59-yarder last week that he was going to make it. I just knew it. What's particularly hilarious is that just last night that same kicker was SHORT from 53-yards. WHILE KICKING INDOORS!!!! I guess because it wasn't the Eagles he was facing, he no longer had super powers.

End rant.

wow. I've thought the same thing when opponents kick those long FGs but that's quite the anomaly. Who are the outliers on the other end of the spectrum to balance that 50/50 out?

Last year AJ was out 3 games. 2 of them were so-so passing games and they lost, one game Goedert and Smitty had big games.

Knowing who they have out, they're going to rely on Smitty, Barkley and Goedert and some Hurts runs. I also think the defense wants revenge and will play a much better game. If the defense played better last time they would have won, they gave up a lead.

46 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

^This

The whole notion that DC's tear up their game plans and start over from scratch because of an injured player is so mind-numbingly ridiculous. It would be one thing if it were Hurts being held out, and now a different type of QB like McKee steps in, but that's not the case here.

Love AJ and what he brings to the offense, but he's not having that large of an impact on what the DC is prepping for outside of some specific coverages in the red zone or 3rd down.

No one said they tear up the gameplan, just that it's absolutely an advantage for them to know if AJ is not playing.

Is information good? Yes

Is AJ Brown a huge factor that usually results in coverage rolled to his side? Yes

People can hate all they want but it's inarguably strategic not to disclose the information until you really have to

@LeanMeanGM asked:

But when you still have Smith, Goedert, Barkley and Hurts with his running, how much of your game plan actually changes?

The answer is probably--a significant enough amount that makes it worth it to not disclose the information

Just now, Mike31mt said:

just that it's absolutely an advantage for them to know if AJ is not playing.

A very minor one.

42 minutes ago, Waiting4Someday said:

Holland, Adebo and potentially Burns out is probably the bigger concern over there…

And if people don't think the Eagles are adjusting their game plan if Burns is out, for example, they're kidding themselves.  He terrorized our OL a couple weeks ago.  

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

A very minor one.

AJ is doubled as much as anyone in the entire league.  Now they don't have to worry about that.  

10 minutes ago, Mike31mt said:

AJ is doubled as much as anyone in the entire league.  Now they don't have to worry about that.  

Those are game day play calls. How exactly do you think it works? They literally remove a portion of the game plan because of AJ not playing? That they won't roll any coverages to Smitty's side in the red zone or 3rd downs instead? You're acting like Bowen adjusted alignments because he had a CB travel with Brown and now that's no longer needed or something. The reason why WRs like Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb put up gaudy numbers year in and year out is because modern NFL defenses are limited in what they can do schematically to take away the other team's top WR without hamstringing the rest of their defense.

I've been saying for 3 years that AJ was not going to age well on this team, especially with the combination of physical traits that he relies on, playing style, and personality.

I do think the triad of Howie/Hurts/Siri (plus a more seasoned Lurie as owner) are about as equipped as any team can be to handle the personality issues with AJ. None of them are itching to make this team worse. But I do sense that both sides of this disagreement are "over it."