1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

We could go further with the trades thing... 

Agreed, and see my post right before yours.

12 minutes ago, Utebird said:

I agree I blame Howie

I blame McNabb Wentz

As far as judging picks, every team passed on Brady five times, including the Patriots.

People assume if they didn't pick X, they'd take Y who I know in hindsight was the right pick, but what if they took Z, who flopped?

And saying so and so was the pre-draft consensus ignores all the flops that were also pre-draft consensus (selective memory).

Which is why the FO analysis is the best I've seen, looking at entire drafts and taking into account the total value of the team's picks.

40 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Primary reason for Eagles lack of draft success the last five years, combination of position in draft and trades (Wentz, Slay, Darby, Tate):

Eagles tied with KC with the lowest expected value of their drafts the last five years.

Eagles were just ahead of the Jets for the worst returns on their drafts the last five years.

But relative to the league, Eagles got 95% of their draft value over that period (100% being the average).

Top drafting teams:  KC, Minn, Dallas, Buf, LAR, Bal, Atl, Sea, NO

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/nfl-drafting-efficiency-2010-2019

Thanks for that information.  It's nice to see it in writing. (It's basically what I already assumed). 

 

44 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Don’t let Dillard off the hook for being a jello minded weakling. 

Fair. You would think Peters would be willing to help out the team though (LOL JK, where's my money).

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

How can you judge the Dillard pick right now, it was known when drafted he needed to add strength or he'd never gotten past the top 10. if he hadn't been injured, we'd have a sense of how good he is or isn't, but that will have to wait until next season.

Reagor? A bit early for judgment, wouldn't you say. Shown flashes, been injured, and is in a bad situation, another where we probably won't know until next season.

JJAW, that's pretty obvious.

Barnett is not a JAG, he's a solid starting NFL DE, he's not in the top 20 (out of 60 or so DEs/edge rushing LBs) but he's not near the bottom either, and he's only 24.

Wentz? An MVP season, two top ten seasons and a putrid season. So how do you judge that?

I'll agree with you on Barnett. I might be his biggest fan outside @HazletonEagle. Reagor over Jefferson was stupid. Jefferson was the most polished wr in the draft imo. I would've taken Higgins over Reagor in a trade back. Jefferson should've been the pick all along and we're in the same situation again this upcoming draft because of Howie's mistakes the last 2

I knew we were going to get the Brady excuse. 

3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as judging picks, every team passed on Brady five times, including the Patriots.

People assume if they didn't pick X, they'd take Y who I know in hindsight was the right pick, but what if they took Z, who flopped?

And saying so and so was the pre-draft consensus ignores all the flops that were also pre-draft consensus (selective memory).

Which is why the FO analysis is the best I've seen, looking at entire drafts and taking into account the total value of the team's picks.

I'm still depressed that the picked x over almost literally anybody else that could have helped THIS YEAR

1 minute ago, austinfan said:

Reagor? A bit early for judgment, wouldn't you say. Shown flashes, been injured, and is in a bad situation, another where we probably won't know until next season.

I am sick and tired of next season.  Why not draft a guy who can produce immediately.  Jefferson is killing it, Metcalf killed it his rookie year.  

Bisi Johnson was the last WR picked in the JJAW draft, and had 31 catches for 294 yards and 3 TD's.

JJAW for his career has 12 for 214 and 1 TD.

As far as Howie's trades, have to put them in context of a team coming off a SB with the belief they had the talent to return.

I didn't like the Tate trade or the Avery trade, but I'd bet those were driven by coaches, that is, you don't make mid-season trades without the coach telling you the player is a good fit for what they want to do.

Darby was a disappointment. Slay has been good value, he's a top starting CB, not a shutdown corner, but we didn't pay a shutdown corner price for him. either. He'd look much better if we had a true FS. McLeod, Mills and Wallace all lack deep speed and are best suited to a cover 2 or cover 4 scheme, but are a big play ready to happen in cover 1.

Wentz looked great until this season, especially combined with the Bradford trade.

I was actually still okay with Reagor until I saw those plays where he didn't seem to care and the other ones where it takes him a mile to stop before turning for the ball. 

5 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Thanks for that information.  It's nice to see it in writing. (It's basically what I already assumed). 

And I'll add that "being tied with KC for lowest expected value" doesn't seem like a negative, imo.

It means they are going after more "low ceiling, high floor" prospects.

Actually, it means they're drafting late in each round (price of winning) and have traded away a bunch of picks so they have lower cumulative value of their draft picks.

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as judging picks, every team passed on Brady five times, including the Patriots.

People assume if they didn't pick X, they'd take Y who I know in hindsight was the right pick, but what if they took Z, who flopped?

And saying so and so was the pre-draft consensus ignores all the flops that were also pre-draft consensus (selective memory).

Which is why the FO analysis is the best I've seen, looking at entire drafts and taking into account the total value of the team's picks.

How about looking at the product on the field and seeing that the cold hard facts are: IT SUCKS.  AND... they are 2nd to only the Saints in terms of Salary Cap hell to get out of it.  

Howie is the guy responsible for making sure the cap doesn't screw us... yet he screwed up the cap.  FAILURE.

Howie is the guy responsible for adding talent to the roster, and rather than actually fixing anything, he did a bunch of expensive half-measures, leaving us with little young talent, and no flexibility moving forward.  FAILURE.

Howie is the guy responsible for communicating with the coaching staff and finding players that fit what they want to do, if the coaches refuse to modify their system to fit the talent.  FAILURE.  (This one falls equally on the coaches for not recognizing how to maximize whatever talent they do have.)  

 

Bottom line:  This team is 3-8-1 and falling fast, because of Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson aren't working well together, if at all, and frankly, both of them are so bad at their respective responsibilities right now, that they need to clean out the entire house and start fresh.   I feel bad for the new GM needing to deal with the garbage that Howie has left here.

6 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as judging picks, every team passed on Brady five times, including the Patriots.

People assume if they didn't pick X, they'd take Y who I know in hindsight was the right pick, but what if they took Z, who flopped?

And saying so and so was the pre-draft consensus ignores all the flops that were also pre-draft consensus (selective memory).

Which is why the FO analysis is the best I've seen, looking at entire drafts and taking into account the total value of the team's picks.

Well said.  

18 minutes ago, Utebird said:

I agree I blame Howie

I blame Canada

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as Howie's trades, have to put them in context of a team coming off a SB with the belief they had the talent to return.

I didn't like the Tate trade or the Avery trade, but I'd bet those were driven by coaches, that is, you don't make mid-season trades without the coach telling you the player is a good fit for what they want to do.

Darby was a disappointment. Slay has been good value, he's a top starting CB, not a shutdown corner, but we didn't pay a shutdown corner price for him. either. He'd look much better if we had a true FS. McLeod, Mills and Wallace all lack deep speed and are best suited to a cover 2 or cover 4 scheme, but are a big play ready to happen in cover 1.

Wentz looked great until this season, especially combined with the Bradford trade.

You'd lose that bet since it was admitted that the OC didn't know how to use Tate and the DC refuses to use Avery.

Afan,

Bad drafting

Bad trades

Horrible contracts

Terrible cap management

Dysfunctional coaching staff (see 1000 consultants)

Ruinous training/conditioning staff

Stupid public statements (QB Factory, baby!)

What exactly has Howie done well recently?

 

11 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Actually, it means they're drafting late in each round (price of winning) and have traded away a bunch of picks so they have lower cumulative value of their draft picks.

Gotcha.  I was about to go back and edit my post and ask if it had more to do with that than "taking risks" but you beat me to it.  Makes sense.  

19 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

Theyve had like 15 top 100 picks in 5 years and have A pro bowl to show for it. 

Theyve had like 15-16 top 100 picks in 5 years and have A pro bowl

Barnett is a JAG. Add in the fact he was top 20, thats a terrible pick

Rowe was traded 2 years later - Terrible

Nelly was a Jag, top 20 pick, makes it terrible

JJAW Terrible

Dillard is on a one way street with looking like a terrible pick

Reagor pick WAS TERRIBLE. but I'll give it another year or 2 make it official. 

 

barnett is still young enough that I'm not going to totally write him off yet, though bugs the heck at me that he always seems to be dinged on routine plays.

Reagor I don't think it's fair to judge in the most dysfunctional offense in the league.

I'll wait.

With draft picks it's easy to look back and say that was a bad pick because that player now sucks 

I tend to judge in the value at the time that player was drafted.

A player like Rowe though he didn't pan out at the time of the draft was a good luck. Eagles needed a corner he was drafted right where he was rated and projected to go, 2nd round, as draft value at the time it was a good pick. To give up on him basically after one year wasnt good value.

Agholor while wasn't the pick I wanted he was a first round rated WR and the eagles needed a WR I remember more than a few posters being excited about the Agholor pick, at the time the value was correct.

Same with Barnett, eagles needed another DE Barnett was a projected first rounder, he wasn't my preferred luck at the time but the value was there.

Reagor was all over people's boards and rankings as were most receivers in that draft class. Some thought it was a reach some thought it was good value as reagor was a fast riser up some boards and fit a need, judging the pick solely on the guy that was drafted directly after him is an exercise in futility though one that generates a lot of chatter.

Where as a pic like Marcus Smith was a total reach, JJAW for a lot seemed to come out of left field though there were plenty of people that had him second round 

Drafting a guy like pumphrey in the 4th round should get people fired for gross negligence.

Either way most the draft is a crap shoot guys in first round bust all the time while guys drafted in 5th round become all pro.

There's really no method to the madness no matter how many people try and come up with an analytical process to perfect that process.

Some teams have streamlined that process and what ever process the eagles take doesn't seem to work, bad luck or idiocy? Who knows?

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I blame Canada

7 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as judging picks, every team passed on Brady five times, including the Patriots.

People assume if they didn't pick X, they'd take Y who I know in hindsight was the right pick, but what if they took Z, who flopped?

A large faction of us wanted Jefferson and Metcalf.  We are not talking about a different position.  It is very easy to assume if the did not draft WR x, they would have drafted WR Y.

5 of the next 6 WR's after JJAW have had massive to good production.

The 7 WR's after Reagor have all had massive to good production.

The worst part, we got to see that production at the Eagles expense, Metcalf, McLaurin, Slayton, Higgins, Aiyuk, Claypool have all embarrassed the Eagles in games.

3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Actually, it means they're drafting late in each round (price of winning) and have traded away a bunch of picks so they have lower cumulative value of their draft picks.

Because of bad drafting too.    See above.   Pick a GOOD RB in the big RB draft, and they don't need to trade for Ajayi or Howard.  There's 2 picks you get back, instead of a red shirt CB, or even a 4th round trade up disaster.   BUT... rather than looking for 'talent', they were looking for Darren Sproles.  Well, they failed with Pumphrey, but have also failed with Boston Scott who is the definition of a JAG. 

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I blame Canada

Hey now, we could have had Chase Claypool!

The product on the field primarily sucks due to injuries, normally you might lose one starting OL and have a couple others injured for short periods, and maybe lose one other skill player.

No offense can withstand the amount of injuries the Eagles have experienced without imploding, just look at Dallas, even with Dalton, a proven NFL veteran, their offense was putrid when their OL had a string of injuries, and that's with three talented WRs and a top pair of RBs.

We saw this in 2005, and the team rebounded in 2006, problem in 2021, is the cap situation means they're gonna lose a bunch of veteran talent.

7 minutes ago, austinfan said:

As far as Howie's trades, have to put them in context of a team coming off a SB with the belief they had the talent to return.

Darby was a disappointment.

Darby was on the Super Bowl team.