June 1, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said: Very misleading. They traded for a guy abs have him a 100M contract when people in this board thought we had about 7M in cap room. Then they signed a guy who was last years top FA CB for 10M. 3 big splashes. And maybe there's still a safety to come. Nah, what you just posted is misleading. The cap hit for 2022 is under $6M for Brown. The $100M contract doesn't start until 2023. And it's almost assuredly more likely to be a 3 year, $70M contract. He's either getting cut before 2026, or he's getting a restructure. It is almost entirely unfathomable that they are going to have a WR with a $41M cap hit. Instead, they'll have a $20M dead hit, or the restructure to lower that cap number... which is much more in line with Howie's MO. And Bradberry's contract is a major kick of the can to the future, and the $10M includes $2.5M in incentives. We'll see if he earns them or not.
June 1, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said: Nah, what you just posted is misleading. The cap hit for 2022 is under $6M for Brown. The $100M contract doesn't start until 2023. And it's almost assuredly more likely to be a 3 year, $70M contract. He's either getting cut before 2026, or he's getting a restructure. It is almost entirely unfathomable that they are going to have a WR with a $41M cap hit. Instead, they'll have a $20M dead hit, or the restructure to lower that cap number... which is much more in line with Howie's MO. And Bradberry's contract is a major kick of the can to the future, and the $10M includes $2.5M in incentives. We'll see if he earns them or not. That's just Howie being great at his job and not getting credit from you. You're explaining exactly why he is great while trying to say he isn't.
June 1, 20223 yr Just now, HazletonEagle said: That's just Howie being great at his job and not getting credit from you. You're explaining exactly why he is great while trying to say he isn't. ok
June 1, 20223 yr Author 7 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said: Nah, what you just posted is misleading. The cap hit for 2022 is under $6M for Brown. The $100M contract doesn't start until 2023. And it's almost assuredly more likely to be a 3 year, $70M contract. He's either getting cut before 2026, or he's getting a restructure. It is almost entirely unfathomable that they are going to have a WR with a $41M cap hit. Instead, they'll have a $20M dead hit, or the restructure to lower that cap number... which is much more in line with Howie's MO. TBF, there is no way he could have known that. That point was only made 4-5 times in the last 3 pages
June 1, 20223 yr 18 minutes ago, paco said: TBF, there is no way he could have known that. That point was only made 4-5 times in the last 3 pages It really doesn't help the case of those complaining about the cap and dead money. Aren't they supposed to have an even larger pile of dead cap by then? Hasn't that point been made ad nauseum? And yet, there is a 100M deal kicking in anyway. How? Because Howie can. Because we aren't in cap trouble. You guys keep saying Howie is bad, but the more you talk about it abs try to explain it, all you can really do is demonstrate how good he is.
June 1, 20223 yr Author 1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said: It really doesn't help the case of those complaining about the cap and dead money. Aren't they supposed to have an even larger pile of dead cap by then? Yes. And they have now entered a cycle where they will now need to continually push more and more money into the future to remain competitive. Edit: See the following two posts, the cause and effect may be more apparent. Literally the point of this thread. Let me know if you have any other questions. 1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said: Hasn't that point been made ad nauseum? Stop making the same bad argument then 1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said: And yet, there is a 100M deal kicking in anyway. How? Because Howie can. Because we aren't in cap trouble. Show your work (Feelings don't count, use numbers) 1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said: You guys keep saying Howie is bad, but the more you talk about it abs try to explain it, all you can really do is demonstrate how good he is. I found this bit of cheerleading odd in context to the rest of your post but then I remembered you quoted Howie almost word for word as a counterpoint a few days ago. It's the source material for your opinion.
June 1, 20223 yr Author On 5/27/2022 at 9:12 AM, paco said: I believe @Bwestbrook36 was asking about the 2023 dead cap hit for players no longer on the team. Assuming nothing happens (contract extensions, post june 1 cuts, etc), this is what we are currently looking at: Cox (2022 cut) $15,359,292 Javon Hargrave $16,758,000 Brandon Brooks $9,797,237 Isaac Seumalo $3,838,000 James Bradberry $4,972,000 Kyzir White $1,572,000 Anthony Harris $997,412 T.J. Edwards $711,000 $54,004,941 @downundermike : You mentioned that it was a bit unclear about Cox's hit due to the cut. I found this on OverTheCap, pretty interesting read. That is where I got the $15,359,292 number from for 2023. It looks like there will be a second dead cap hit in 2024 for $7,500,000. I started to look at 2024 and realized I missed a pair of players on this list. First: Jason Kelce. Quote Jason Kelce signed a one year, $14 million contract with the Eagles. $14 million is guaranteed including a $10.13 million signing bonus. The 2023 season is a placeholder in the event that Kelce retires or is released. He has a $2.75 million roster bonus that is guaranteed that year. If on the roster after June 2nd of 2023 a large guarantee kicks in for 2024. Given that, I'm going to keep him off the total for now since its pure speculation. But if you believe he will retire, it will have a significant bump to the total, either to the tune of $21,123,000 or $9,675,000, depending on if it they designate him as a post June 1st cut. (And to be able to designate him as post June 1st, they will need to have $21 million laying around to "hold" him from March to June, so expect massive restructures over the next 8 months. This is another area where an inflexible cap bites you.) Second, Fletcher Cox (non 2022 cut) Quote Fletcher Cox signed a one year, $14 million contract with the Eagles. The contract is fully guaranteed. $12.5 million was advanced and is treated as a signing bonus. There is a dummy year included for 2023 and 2024 which are simply in place to allow the Eagles to utilize the June 1 cut designation with Cox next year. The cap hits are reflective of how it will actually impact the salary cap for Philadelphia in those years. Similar to Kelce, if I am reading the numbers right, we are looking at a pretty decent sized dead cap hit in 2023 if the Eagles decide to move on. It will be either $10 million or 2.5 million depending if they use post June 1st. Assume this is the last year for both AND the Eagles designate both as their two post June 1st "cuts", I think this is what we are looking at from a dead cap hit perspective 2023: $9,675,000 + $2,500,000 = $12,175,000 2024: $11,448,000 + $7,500,000 = $18,948,000 Again, this is speculative, but if the numbers are right AND we assume both retire\cut with a June 1st designation, that takes the 2023 dead cap to $66,179,941
June 1, 20223 yr Author Current 2024 dead cap projection. We spoke about Cox and Kelce above. Since its likely both will be gone in 2024, lets speculate a June 1st roll over from 2023. It will be the most conservative estimate. That gives us the following Speculative 2023 6/1 cut $ 18,948,000 Darius Slay $ 13,798,000 Brandon Graham $ 10,148,000 Derek Barnett $ 7,215,000 $ 50,109,000 So assuming no extensions (Slay MIGHT a candidate, Barnett only if he gets his crap together) or any other cap movements AND Kelce\Cox being 2023 post June 1st designations, that puts us at 2023: $66,179,941 2024: $50,109,000 Admittedly, the Cox cut and resign is by far the most murkey of the numbers. If I got anything wrong that throws off the projections, it will likely be that.
June 1, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, paco said: Yes. And they have now entered a cycle where they will now need to continually push more and more money into the future to remain competitive. Edit: See the following two posts, the cause and effect may be more apparent. Literally the point of this thread. Let me know if you have any other questions. Stop making the same bad argument then Show your work (Feelings don't count, use numbers) I found this bit of cheerleading odd in context to the rest of your post but then I remembered you quoted Howie almost word for word as a counterpoint a few days ago. It's the source material for your opinion. There are too many unknowns for any of us to actually solve the equation. Howie knows it. We don't. That's why you capologists here are always wrong.
June 1, 20223 yr In a general sense, the Eagles are doing the absolute right thing with the cap. The qb position drives the cap. There are teams with qbs on rookie deals like the Eagles who should be all in at other positions to try and win a Super Bowl, and there are teams with qbs on massive contracts who need to budget at other positions. The Eagles were stuck with Wentz's contract, but now that he's off the books they are absolutely correct to make a push this year by upgrading the roster to take advantage of Hurts being on a rookie deal. Moving forward, there are three scenarios. 1. Hurts gets a massive contract which won't have a large cap hit until 2025. 2. They draft a qb next year in the first round whose massive cap hit won't kick in until 2029. 3. Hurts (or another vet) signs a reasonable contract extension. Scenario 3 seems somewhat unlikely, but if anyone signs such a deal, it will be him. If you look at the qb contracts. there is a pretty massive gap between Brady ($25 million) and Winston ($14 million), and then a further drop to guys like Mariota, Trubisky and Bridgewater, who make under $10 million. Teams have ridden mediocre qb play to the Super Bowl in the past, and as long as the Eagles don't lose their minds and pay top dollar for mediocre play, they should be okay. So the bottom line is that the team won't have a significant cap hit at the qb position until 2025 at the earliest, and there is a decent chance that they won't for a long time. So without that $40 million to $50 million cap hit staring them in the face, they are absolutely correct to be running pretty big spending deficits (i.e. dead cap hits) right now.
June 1, 20223 yr Author 18 minutes ago, jsb235 said: The qb position drives the cap. There are teams with qbs on rookie deals like the Eagles who should be all in at other positions to try and win a Super Bowl, and there are teams with qbs on massive contracts who need to budget at other positions. I liked your entire post, but I wanted to focus on this. I've wondered if that is where the QB Factory comment comes from? Regardless, unless you have something really special, paying the huge $$$ to a QB seems to handicap teams more often then not. One of the rare exceptions is Tom Brady, and he has famously taken much less $$$ then the other top QBs throughout his career. Correlation is causation in that case?
June 1, 20223 yr 1 minute ago, paco said: I liked your entire post, but I wanted to focus on this. I've wondered if that is where the QB Factory comment comes from? Regardless, unless you have something really special, paying the huge $$$ to a QB seems to handicap teams more often then not. One of the rare exceptions is Tom Brady, and he has famously taken much less $$$ then the other top QBs throughout his career. Correlation is causation in that case? Was just looking back, chances are you win paying a QB over a QB on a rookie deal. Stafford - paid Brady - kinda paid Mahomes - rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Foles - back up deal but more than rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Manning - paid Brady - kinda paid Wilson - rookie deal Flacco - paid Eli - paid Rodgers - paid Brees - paid Big Bed - paid Eli - paid
June 1, 20223 yr Author 2 minutes ago, downundermike said: Was just looking back, chances are you win paying a QB over a QB on a rookie deal. Stafford - paid Brady - kinda paid Mahomes - rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Foles - back up deal but more than rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Manning - paid Brady - kinda paid Wilson - rookie deal Flacco - paid Eli - paid Rodgers - paid Brees - paid Big Bed - paid Eli - paid we were going down a similar path, just from different angles. I'm struggling to find cap % for each player when they won AND cap hit compared to other folks at the position. I wish my favorite cap site was better about going back in time. For example, yes, Flacco was "paid" but if memory serves me correctly, he was gunning for a top contract when he had that super bowl run (thus the Flacco Elite jokes). I'd be shocked if he was top 5 at the time, or even top 10
June 1, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, downundermike said: Was just looking back, chances are you win paying a QB over a QB on a rookie deal. Stafford - paid Brady - kinda paid Mahomes - rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Foles - back up deal but more than rookie deal Brady - kinda paid Manning - paid Brady - kinda paid Wilson - rookie deal Flacco - paid Eli - paid Rodgers - paid Brees - paid Big Bed - paid Eli - paid Flacco was on his rookie contract when he won the Super Bowl. He got paid after that season. Ben won his first Super Bowl on his rookie contract and the second one the first year he got paid. Eli Manning was on his rookie contract when he won his first Super Bowl. Brady skews everything when you are trying to look at the numbers, but the reality is that is more split down the middle.
June 1, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, pallidrone said: Flacco was on his rookie contract when he won the Super Bowl. He got paid after that season. Ben won his first Super Bowl on his rookie contract and the second one the first year he got paid. Eli Manning was on his rookie contract when he won his first Super Bowl. Brady skews everything when you are trying to look at the numbers, but the reality is that is more split down the middle. Here you go @paco The rookie deals for Flacco, Ben and Eli where before the rookie wage scale Flacco first deal - he signed a five-year contract with a maximum value of around $30 million ( Salary cap was 116 million ) Eli first deal - He signed a six-year, $45 million contract with the Giants.[71] ( Salary cap was 80.5 million ) Ben first deal - six-year contract to the Steelers worth $22.26 million in salaries and bonuses, with an additional $17.73 million available via incentives ( Salary cap was 80.5 million ) For comparison, last years #1 overall pick ( Lawrence ) signed a 4 year 36 million dollar deal. ( Salary cap was 182.5 million due to Covid, and is 208 million this year ) When you account for the cap increase since then, the other guys deals before the rookie wage scale are a larger percentage of the cap.
June 1, 20223 yr 2 minutes ago, downundermike said: Here you go @paco The rookie deals for Flacco, Ben and Eli where before the rookie wage scale Flacco first deal - he signed a five-year contract with a maximum value of around $30 million ( Salary cap was 116 million ) Eli first deal - He signed a six-year, $45 million contract with the Giants.[71] ( Salary cap was 80.5 million ) Ben first deal - six-year contract to the Steelers worth $22.26 million in salaries and bonuses, with an additional $17.73 million available via incentives ( Salary cap was 80.5 million ) For comparison, last years #1 overall pick ( Lawrence ) signed a 4 year 36 million dollar deal. ( Salary cap was 182.5 million due to Covid, and is 208 million this year ) When you account for the cap increase since then, the other guys deals before the rookie wage scale are a larger percentage of the cap. And what were they in comparison to the average starting salary of a QB during that time? These guys were on ROOKIE contracts regardless of the value. The QB contract shot up in second contracts after the rookie wage cap was put into place because they were getting less money on their first contracts.
June 1, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, pallidrone said: And what were they in comparison to the average starting salary of a QB during that time? Big Ben's 1st 4.2 million cap hit, ( 14th ) top was Favre at 10.1 million Eli's 1st 10 million cap hit ( 4th ) top was Palmer at 13.4 million Ben's 2nd 7.9 million cap hit ( 11th ) top was Peyton at 18.7 million Eli's 2nd 14.1 million cap hit ( 5th ) top was Sanchez at 17.2 million Flacco 8 million cap hit ( 16th ) top was Peyton at 18 million https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2012/
June 1, 20223 yr 7 minutes ago, downundermike said: Big Ben's 1st 4.2 million cap hit, ( 14th ) top was Favre at 10.1 million Eli's 1st 10 million cap hit ( 4th ) top was Palmer at 13.4 million Ben's 2nd 7.9 million cap hit ( 11th ) top was Peyton at 18.7 million Eli's 2nd 14.1 million cap hit ( 5th ) top was Sanchez at 17.2 million Flacco 8 million cap hit ( 16th ) top was Peyton at 18 million https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2012/ Gotcha. So we should probably make a list of QBs that got paid since we are including those that were on rookie contracts before the rookie salary cap came into place and see how many actually won a Super Bowl. I'll save us some time - not many. There were a lot more Sam Bradfords and Jamarcus Russells out there than there were Eli Mannings.
June 1, 20223 yr 8 minutes ago, pallidrone said: Gotcha. So we should probably make a list of QBs that got paid since we are including those that were on rookie contracts before the rookie salary cap came into place and see how many actually won a Super Bowl. I'll save us some time - not many. There were a lot more Sam Bradfords and Jamarcus Russells out there than there were Eli Mannings. Another way to look at the numbers, more higher percentage than lower.
June 1, 20223 yr This is a pretty good look at qb salaries for teams making the final 4 over the past 10 years. Examining QB cap hits among championship contenders for the past decade - Hogs Haven
June 1, 20223 yr On 5/31/2022 at 2:29 PM, Iggles_Phan said: Who did the Eagles sign before the 2021 season? Bargain basement priced free agents. Because they had no flexibility due to their structures. They got a little flexibility for 2022, and signed Reddick, and bargain basement options. In 2023, we'll see if they can actually be players in the free agent market. IIRC, the Eagles had some pretty good bargain basement deals in 2017. LaGarette Blount, Patrick Robinson, Corey Graham to name a few. I like these one term deals. The team can usually get the best of the player who has something to prove and who is playing for a long term deal.
June 1, 20223 yr Completely outdated and stale. Howie is managing the cap and the roster just fine thank you.
June 1, 20223 yr 2 hours ago, Procus said: IIRC, the Eagles had some pretty good bargain basement deals in 2017. LaGarette Blount, Patrick Robinson, Corey Graham to name a few. I like these one term deals. The team can usually get the best of the player who has something to prove and who is playing for a long term deal. 2017 was lightning in a bottle.
June 1, 20223 yr 3 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said: 2017 was lightning in a bottle. True - but the team never would caught the lightening in a bottle sans those bargain free agent signings.
June 2, 20223 yr 3 hours ago, Procus said: True - but the team never would caught the lightening in a bottle sans those bargain free agent signings. Apples and oranges situation. That team had a strong group of players in their prime and complemented them nicely with some players and there were career years by over half a dozen guys, not the least of which was both QBs. This team doesn't have even 5 players in their prime that would approach that team's level.
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