This should be a fireable offense. Go back and watch the Punt Return with 13:29 left in the 2Q. Eagles leave some regular defensive players on the field bc NE was punting while in Eagles territory. There is confusion so the Eagles burn a time out (poor planning/execution). But after the TO they bring out the same personnel EXCEPT that Terrell Edmunds is off so they only have 10 guys on the field - AFTER THEIR OWN TIMEOUT!! If NE would’ve went for a fake we’d have been a man down. WTF??!!

44 minutes ago, erformc said:

This should be a fireable offense. Go back and watch the Punt Return with 13:29 left in the 2Q. Eagles leave some regular defensive players on the field bc NE was kicking while in Eagles territory. There is confusion so they call a time out (poor planning/execution). But after the TO they bring out the same personnel EXCEPT that Terrell Edmunds is off so they only have 10 guys on the field - AFTER THEIR OWN TIMEOUT!! If NE would’ve went for a fake we’d have been a man down. WTF??!!

Didn't know that. Then there's the beauty of only lining up for a long field goal attempt with only ten men. Sua Opeta hurries onto the field at the last instant, forcing them to burn a timeout.

Not to mention the first Eagles punt, which was a good one, and they let the Patriots returner escape down the sideline for about twenty more yards than he should have.

Elliott especially but also Siposs and Covey had good games. The rest of the team, not so much. Well, Sidney Brown and I think Josh Jobe had good hits on punts.

1 hour ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Didn't know that. Then there's the beauty of only lining up for a long field goal attempt with only ten men. Sua Opeta hurries onto the field at the last instant, forcing them to burn a timeout.

Not to mention the first Eagles punt, which was a good one, and they let the Patriots returner escape down the sideline for about twenty more yards than he should have.

Elliott especially but also Siposs and Covey had good games. The rest of the team, not so much. Well, Sidney Brown and I think Josh Jobe had good hits on punts.

Clay is a problem. Feels like Sirriani is doing the young coach thing of being afraid to fire an assistant

13 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Didn't know that. Then there's the beauty of only lining up for a long field goal attempt with only ten men. Sua Opeta hurries onto the field at the last instant, forcing them to burn a timeout.

Not to mention the first Eagles punt, which was a good one, and they let the Patriots returner escape down the sideline for about twenty more yards than he should have.

Elliott especially but also Siposs and Covey had good games. The rest of the team, not so much. Well, Sidney Brown and I think Josh Jobe had good hits on punts.

To be fair on the punt return on the sideline I recall I thought there was a pretty blatant block in the back just as the returner went to turn the corner, but it's the only one I can't find a replay of.

Patriots season opener. It was a mixed bag. Some good. Some very good. But also some bad. Just happy to win the game.

Arryn Siposs only had four official punts, but he actually punted five times. When there is a play negated because of a penalty and I'm able to get an accurate account of the punt, I always ask, "If the other team had returned it for a touchdown, would they have declined the penalty?" If the answer is yes, then I consider it a valid punt and I included it. It was a "live" play in the moment. So for my purposes, I've recorded Siposs as having five punts rather than only four. His five punts traveled an average distance of 49.6 yards from the line of scrimmage to where the ball landed on the ground, was caught out of the air by the return man, or was marked out of bounds on the fly. His average hangtime was 4.60 seconds. Four of the five were in the air for at least 4.5 seconds. Three of the five were hit outside the numbers. Bryce Baringer punted five times for the Patriots. He averaged 45.0 yards and 4.33 hangtime with only one at 4.5 seconds or more and three hit outside the numbers. The obvious statistical winner was Siposs, putting his theoretical W-L record at 1-0 on the season.

The snap to foot times for both teams were very good. Mostly under 2.0 seconds. Well, not counting the approximate 3.35 time I got on the one where Siposs ran to avoid pressure and punted on the run.

Jake Elliott kicked off seven times. But for my statistical analysis, I always exclude short or line drive kickoffs because including them would only create data that is misleading. As it turns out, one of Elliott's kickoffs fell into this category, though just barely. He had a kickoff into the endzone that wasn't even in the air for three seconds. That's my arbitrary cutoff. So...his six "legitimate" kickoffs averaged 68.5 yards with 4.18 hangtime. That's three and a half yards deep with above average hangtime. No issues. Patriots rookie Chad Ryland kicked off three times (excluding a squib) with an average of 69.0 yards and 4.40 hangtime. Even better.

The snap to foot times on placekicks for both teams were seemingly around 1:30 seconds, which is fine.

Elliott was 4-of-4 on field goal attempts. It was probably his best performance in his career. The expectancy on those distances was only about 2.64. So he made 1.36 more than expected which earned the Eagles 4.08 points over expected value. That's really really good for only four attempts. The average attempt distance was 46.75 yards. From that distance, a kicker would be expected to make about 68% of his attempts in all conditions. (Indoors would be higher of course. Outdoors late in the year in windy conditions would be lower.) His Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2324, which ranks ninth in the league. He's currently at 0.83 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is a solid 2284, which is much higher than the standard of 2200. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2288, which is 0.09 standard deviations above the mean and would rank seventeenth in the league.

The Top Five kickers are Tucker, who is once again back in first place (2391, +2.21 STD); D Carlson (2373, +1.84); Koo (2356, +1.49); Gano (2353, +1.43); and Gay (2350, +1.36). The Bottom Five mostly consists of newcomers. They are Moody (2212, -1.47); A Carlson (2210, -1.51); Aubrey (2205, -1.61); Lutz (2204, -1.63); and Ryland (2200, -1.71).

Other stuff:

* It looked to me like the Eagles first kickoff was intentionally hit short to force the other team to return it. It can be a good strategy if you have a good coverage team. I'm not so much a fan of it as I think our coverage units aren't especially good. Nolan Smith made the tackle by the way.

* On the missed PAT, it is possible (although I'm not entirely sure) that Siposs put the ball down maybe a fraction closer to the right than intended and that's why Elliott slid the ball to the right. Maybe.

* With the Eagles up 16-0, they allowed a big kickoff return by the Patriots to get the ball out to the 44. One Eagles player got knocked on his back in the surge of bodies and another got obliterated. He looked like a cartoon character flying through the air. Not sure who either of those players were. Perhaps someone with a better view can enlighten me.

* On the Eagles first punt, they allowed the return man to tiptoe down the sideline for an additional ten yards or so. I would say that Patrick Johnson was the culprit there. Bad angle. Lost the edge.

* Early in the second quarter with a 16-0 lead and the Patriots punting from inside midfield, the Eagles burned a timeout. Not good.

* Sydney Brown had a highlight play on special teams by timing his run perfectly and drilling the return man the instant he caught the ball. Great play.

* Josh Jobe made a similar though not quite as spectacular play on a later punt. He drilled the return man right at the sideline. Good job. Unfortunately he almost ruined it by standing over the player after the play and coming very close to getting a penalty for taunting. You could see Fletcher Cox run over to try to tell him to cut it out.

* For some reason, Arryn Siposs got spooked on one punt attempt and started to run (he might have been able to get the first down if he had done so but it would have been a risky venture given the field position and the score at the time). He ended up punting on the move and actually got off a pretty good punt.

* Britain Covey had an exceptional punt return. He continues to show very quick feet and change of direction and I was very impressed with the way he finishes his runs with enthusiasm. I also like the way he's always moving forward throughout his returns. Even when he's making moves, he's making them while attacking. So many punt returners run sideways and backward and waste time running in place trying to evade tacklers. But Covey just gets it and goes and gets more yards than you realize.

* Another boneheaded special teams play happened on a long field goal attempt. Sua Opeta had to run on the field in the final few seconds, and though he got lined up with a couple seconds left, the Eagles were forced to burn a timeout. This is unimaginable to me. On third down, you should be getting your field goal team ready. You have a lot of time to get it right. And here he is running out with the clock running down. Ridiculous. And yes, I'm blaming the coach here.

* On a late Patriots squib kickoff, Quez Watkins fielded the ball cleanly and without blockers in front of him, ran out of bounds. Maybe I'm being nitpicky here but it sure seemed to me that Watkins could have gotten a couple extra yards on the return before hopping out. In a situation like that, every yard matters.

@FranklinFldEBUpper  I know you have been able to derive an expected value for FGs, which adds important texture to a kickers impact relative to their FG opportunities.

Is there something analogous to punting?  For example, the measure of success for a punt from midfield would be placement inside the twenty rather than pure distance.  This would add some nuance beyond basic gross and net yard measures.

Thanks again for all your efforts here.

Franklin, I tagged you on this comment in the Regular Season Blog, and thought it would be a good addition here as well.

The comment I was responding to was this one:

 

3 hours ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

@FranklinFldEBUpper  I know you have been able to derive an expected value for FGs, which adds important texture to a kickers impact relative to their FG opportunities.

Is there something analogous to punting?  For example, the measure of success for a punt from midfield would be placement inside the twenty rather than pure distance.  This would add some nuance beyond basic gross and net yard measures.

Thanks again for all your efforts here.

There possibly would be but it may be beyond my capabilities. I would suggest a simple solution with the expected placement being at the ten yard line. So from midfield, you'd want a forty yard punt. From the forty, you'd want a thirty yard punt. Obviously you'd love for the ball to fly out of bounds at the one but that's not realistic.

26 minutes ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

There possibly would be but it may be beyond my capabilities. I would suggest a simple solution with the expected placement being at the ten yard line. So from midfield, you'd want a forty yard punt. From the forty, you'd want a thirty yard punt. Obviously you'd love for the ball to fly out of bounds at the one but that's not realistic.

I found this site.  I have heard them referenced is several podcasts.  Looks like a treasure trove of punt analytics.

https://puntalytics.github.io/

@FranklinFldEBUpper, you should ask if they are looking for interns.

Vikings game.

Arryn Siposs punted four times. It did not go as well for him in this game as it had in the opener at New England. His four punts averaged about 37.8 yards and 4.14 hangtime. None of the four reached 4.5 seconds. Only one was hit outside the numbers. Ryan Wright punted three times for the Vikings. He averaged about 45.3 yards and only 3.97 hangtime. None (one was very close) reached 4.5 seconds and none were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to the Vikings, putting Siposs at 1-1 on the season in his theoretical battle with the opposing punter.

Through two games, Siposs is averaging 44.3 yards and 4.40 hangtime with 44% at 4.5 seconds and 44% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are averaging about 45.1 yards and 4.20 hangtime with 13% at 4.5 seconds and 38% hit outside the numbers. Opponents are hitting it slightly further but definitely lower. But...very small sample.

The snap to foot times on the punts were quicker for the Eagles than the Vikings. The Vikings were mostly a little over 2.0 seconds (their first was quicker). The Eagles were under 2.0 seconds. Their last two were significantly lower.

Jake Elliott kicked off six times. Only five were acceptable for inclusion into the data. One (at 20-7) was a low line drive that would distort the meaning of the stats if it were included. His five kickoffs averaged about 73.6 yards with 4.18 hangtime. That's basically to the back of the endzone with slightly above average height. Excluding the final onside kick, Greg Joseph kicked off four times for the Vikings. He averaged about 74.0 yards and 3.91 hangtime.

On the season (only two games), Elliott is averaging about 70.8 yards and 4.18 hangtime while opponents are averaging about 71.9 yards and 4.12 hangtime. All things considered, fairly comparable. Back of the endzone stuff. Non-returnable for the most part. Nothing to see here.

The snap to foot times on placekicks were right around 1.3 to 1.35 seconds for both teams, although one Eagles PAT was a hiccup slower than that.

Elliott made two of three field goal attempts from distances with an expected value of about 1.77. On the season, he's now six of seven from distances where the accumulated expectancy would be about 4.41. So he's +1.59, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 4.77 points above standard. That's .684 points per kick which is not only incredible but is also unsustainable. If you end a season over .300, you've had a really good year.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating actually dropped a tic down to 2321, which ranks eighth in the league. He's at +0.82 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents remains at 2288, which would rank sixteenth in the league and is +0.14 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2281. The league standard is 2200. Twenty years ago about half the kickers would be above 2200 and the other half would be below it. That's why it was the standard. Nowadays almost every kicker is above standard. The kicking game has improved that much over the past twenty years. It's amazing.

The Top Five ranked kickers are Tucker (2380, +2.03); D Carlson (2377, +1.97); Koo (2360, +1.62); Gano (2354, +1.50); and Gay (2353, +1.48). The Bottom Five kickers are Grupe (2216, -1.34); A Carlson (2212, -1.42); Ryland (2249, -1.48); Seibert (2209, -1.48); and Lutz (2208, -1.50). Seibert and Lutz are the only veterans among the latter group, and Seibert was an emergency practice squad addition for the Jets.

Other stuff:

* Britain Covey fumbled a punt return. He's an aggressive finisher but he has to be more careful. The ball as thankfully recovered cleanly by Kelee Ringo. Covey has yet to lose a fumble but it is somewhat concerning. I still like him as a punt returner though.

* The Eagles allowed a big return on their first punt. It was a low punt. Patrick Johnson missed a tackle and the returner was off to the races before Justin Evans forced a fumble that was recovered by Nicholas Morrow.

* The snap on the 61-yard field goal at the end of the half was kinda high. Lovato also had a semi-high snap on a later PAT.

* On one Minnesota punt, they had a gunner go in motion and the Eagles failed to pick him up properly. I'm putting the blame on Goodrich on this one. At any rate, the guy had a clean approach on Covey which seemed to force a fair catch. If he's picked up properly, it's probably not a fair catch and the Eagles probably pick up a few extra yards. Hidden yardage alert.

* There was a later Vikings punt that disturbed me a bit. I remember watching footage of Bill Parcells when he was coaching the Giants way back when. And during practice he went on and on with Phil McConkey about the importance of the punt returner coming up and fielding the ball. Basically he said that's your job. Don't let the ball bounce. Well, on this Vikings punt later in the game, Covey was not able to get the ball and it wound up bouncing for an additional twenty yards. Maybe it wasn't an easy play, but maybe it's one that should be made.

* With the Vikings trailing 27-21, I thought they might have been offside on their kickoff. Maybe. It's hard to tell.

* I cannot believe that Sirianni elected to kick a PAT to go up by thirteen points with 4:13 left in the game. It was absurd and I was screaming about it in the moment. And I was stunned that no reporter thought to ask him about it after the game. How was that not on the tip of everyone's tongue? (Yes, it was asked and answered on Monday.) At that stage of the game (fourth quarter) you have to try to get up by fourteen. Even if you miss, up twelve isn't really any different than being up thirteen. To Sirianni's credit, he admitted he was wrong. But my God, you can you not know this in advance?

* DeVonta Smith recovered the Vikings late onside kick and also kind of took a cheap shot in the process.

* With only seconds left in the game and punting from midfield, I was expecting Siposs to hit it out of bounds. Instead he hit it right down the middle. I have to believe it was intentional based on his body positioning. It all worked out well for the Eagles as Ringo immediately brought the returner down. The Vikings were kind of forced to try to block the punt and as a result, they didn't have a blocking scheme set up, so the Eagles had about five guys ready to engulf the returner. In a way it worked out even better that it was returned rather than hit out of bounds because if they had had more time, the Vikings might have been able to try a two-play sequence. As it was, they only got off one lame Hail Mary. Incidentally on this punt, Siposs got the ball off with amazing quickness. It was just a catch the ball and hit it situation. Around 1.70 seconds from snap to foot. I remember Donnie Jones doing something similar in the Rams game where Wentz got injured.

* And yesterday the Eagles replaced Siposs with Braden Mann. He's only on the practice squad and will presumably remain there for the next three weeks, with activations for each game. At that point he'll have to be added to the 53-man roster in order to stay with the team. I checked my records to see how well Mann has punted against the Eagles in the past, and it was not good. He punted in the Jets-Eagles game from two years ago -- the one with Gardner Minshew quarterbacking. He had two punts. Both were bad. One was a 3.20 second line drive. The other had amazing hangtime but only went 29 yards. And this wasn't a pooch punt situation. It was from the Jets side of the field. My understanding is that Mann has a big leg and can drive the ball well for distance but is not a great hangtime punter and also has some shortcomings in terms of placement. I know Jets fans hated him and not just because of his game-saving tackle that ultimately cost them Trevor Lawrence. We'll see. Let's hope it works out. Siposs was on a short leash and his below average game against the Vikings ended up costing him.

6 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

* Britain Covey fumbled a punt return. He's an aggressive finisher but he has to be more careful. The ball as thankfully recovered cleanly by Kelee Ringo. Covey has yet to lose a fumble but it is somewhat concerning. I still like him as a punt returner though.

He seemed a little gun-shy after that mistake. He allowed that one punt to bounce and roll right past him for an additional 10-12 yards. He should have secured it and just fallen forward. Probably would have been a 15 yard difference in starting field position. 

Everybody, I'm sure, noticed Covey tonight. But there's another thing flying under the radar with the Eagles that nobody ever talks about. I think Clay deserves some credit for it. Very rarely last year did our return teams get called for a holding or illegal block penalty. None so far through 3 games this season. How many times do we watch other teams and see so many returns brought back each week or penalties added to the end of punts? I know we haven't been the best when it comes to blocking on returns, but I believe these two things are related. I can only presume, but it appears to me the Eagles' ST philosophy is to avoid the negative plays, even at the expense of blocking on returns. I think Clay is teaching them to stay within the rules rather than how to get away with violations. It's something to ponder.

Buccaneers Monday Night game. The debut of savior Braden Mann.

Our hero punter only punted once for 38 yards with a 4.27 hangtime. The ball was not hit outside the numbers. Bucs punter Jake Camarda, who was somehow drafted ahead of the almighty Matt Araiza, who I've heard was the greatest punting prospect in history, somehow managed to justify his lofty draft status. He had four official punts but I always include free kicks and calculate them as punts from the thirty yard line. His five punts came in at an amazing 57.4 yards with a strong 4.52 hangtime. Three of the five were over 4.5 seconds. Three of the five were hit outside the numbers. The obvious statistical edge goes to the Bucs, putting the Eagles at 1-2 on the season, with Mann starting out 0-1 in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season opponents are now averaging 49.9 yards with 4.32 hangtime with 31% at 4.5 seconds and 46% hit outside the numbers. Mann's season numbers are obviously the same as his numbers for the game.

The snap to foot times on the Eagles punt was under 2.00 seconds, which is perfectly good. The Bucs were a bit slower than normal, around 2.10 seconds. Perhaps that's the knock on Camarda, that he takes a bit to unwind. I would think that if were to play them in the postseason, I would make a mental note that this might be a team that you should try to block a punt on. Write it down in pencil and revisit this in January.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times and did a great job of peppering the back line of the endzone. He averaged about 74.6 yards (just about out of the endzone) with a below average 3.99 hangtime. Camarda does the kickoffs for the Bucs as well. He kicked off three times for an average of abut 73.0 yards and 4.32 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging 72.0 yards and 4.12 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 72.2 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Similar. Slight edge to them.

Elliott made all three of his field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of around 2.64. On the season, he's now 9-of-10 from distances with an expectancy of about 7.05. So he's plus 1.95, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 5.85 points over standard. Not bad for only ten attempts. His average attempt distance is 42.7 yards, which is longer than the league average. A kick from that distance is about a 76% proposition. And he's at 90%. Very good indeed.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2326, which ranks seventh in the league and comes in at 0.98 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents upped to 2290, which would rank nineteenth and is 0.02 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2286. The standard is of course 2200. The Top Five Kickers are Gay (2379, +1.86); D Carlson (2377, +1.82); Tucker (2371, +1.70); Gano (2365, +1.58); and Koo (2344; +1.16). The Bottom Five Kickers are Moody (2232, -1.08); A Carlson (2216, -1.40); Lutz (2211, -1.50); Grupe (2200, -1.72); and Ryland (2199, -1.74). It's weird seeing Tucker not ranked first, but Gay and Carlson have quietly been amazing of the past couple of seasons while Tucker has been sprinkling in some longish misses here and there.

Other stuff:

* Britain Covey had a great game with multiple big returns, including one of over fifty yards. Granted, there were opportunities for him because the punter hit it so far and he had some open field in front of him. But he deserves real credit for making plays. I continue to love his quick feet, his change of direction, the fact that he wastes zero time with useless moves and is always moving forward even when he's making moves. His vision is good and he can gear down in traffic to alter his course. He also shows aggressiveness when he finishes his runs. My only criticism would be that on one of Camarda's long punts, he could have fielded the ball in the air. Instead he let it bounce before scurrying back to the five yard line to pick it up. But he made a good return out of it and got it out almost to the twenty. Incidentally I would say it was a smart move to pick it up when he did since he did have room to make a play while if he had let it go there was a decent chance it would have been downed inside the five yard line. So yeah, a big day for Covey. Maybe that'll shut up the detractors, of which there have been too many for no real good reason.

* The Eagles activated hurdle champion Devon Allen to return kicks since Boston Scott was out. His debut was largely forgettable. His only kick return only went to the sixteen yard line. The Eagles in effect lost nine yards, as they'd have gotten it at the 25 if he'd have stayed in the endzone.

* There wasn't much else. Overall a good day for the units.

2 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

Buccaneers Monday Night game. The debut of savior Braden Mann.

Our hero punter only punted once for 38 yards with a 4.27 hangtime. The ball was not hit outside the numbers. Bucs punter Jake Camarda, who was somehow drafted ahead of the almighty Matt Araiza, who I've heard was the greatest punting prospect in history, somehow managed to justify his lofty draft status. He had four official punts but I always include free kicks and calculate them as punts from the thirty yard line. His five punts came in at an amazing 57.4 yards with a strong 4.52 hangtime. Three of the five were over 4.5 seconds. Three of the five were hit outside the numbers. The obvious statistical edge goes to the Bucs, putting the Eagles at 1-2 on the season, with Mann starting out 0-1 in his theoretical 1-on-1 battle with the opposing punter.

On the season opponents are now averaging 49.9 yards with 4.32 hangtime with 31% at 4.5 seconds and 46% hit outside the numbers. Mann's season numbers are obviously the same as his numbers for the game.

The snap to foot times on the Eagles punt was under 2.00 seconds, which is perfectly good. The Bucs were a bit slower than normal, around 2.10 seconds. Perhaps that's the knock on Camarda, that he takes a bit to unwind. I would think that if were to play them in the postseason, I would make a mental note that this might be a team that you should try to block a punt on. Write it down in pencil and revisit this in January.

Jake Elliott kicked off five times and did a great job of peppering the back line of the endzone. He averaged about 74.6 yards (just about out of the endzone) with a below average 3.99 hangtime. Camarda does the kickoffs for the Bucs as well. He kicked off three times for an average of abut 73.0 yards and 4.32 hangtime. On the season, Elliott is averaging 72.0 yards and 4.12 hangtime. Opponents are averaging about 72.2 yards and 4.18 hangtime. Similar. Slight edge to them.

Elliott made all three of his field goal attempts from distances with an expectancy of around 2.64. On the season, he's now 9-of-10 from distances with an expectancy of about 7.05. So he's plus 1.95, meaning he's earned the Eagles about 5.85 points over standard. Not bad for only ten attempts. His average attempt distance is 42.7 yards, which is longer than the league average. A kick from that distance is about a 76% proposition. And he's at 90%. Very good indeed.

Elliott's Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2326, which ranks seventh in the league and comes in at 0.98 standard deviations above the mean. The rating of Eagles Opponents upped to 2290, which would rank nineteenth and is 0.02 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2286. The standard is of course 2200. The Top Five Kickers are Gay (2379, +1.86); D Carlson (2377, +1.82); Tucker (2371, +1.70); Gano (2365, +1.58); and Koo (2344; +1.16). The Bottom Five Kickers are Moody (2232, -1.08); A Carlson (2216, -1.40); Lutz (2211, -1.50); Grupe (2200, -1.72); and Ryland (2199, -1.74). It's weird seeing Tucker not ranked first, but Gay and Carlson have quietly been amazing of the past couple of seasons while Tucker has been sprinkling in some longish misses here and there.

Other stuff:

* Britain Covey had a great game with multiple big returns, including one of over fifty yards. Granted, there were opportunities for him because the punter hit it so far and he had some open field in front of him. But he deserves real credit for making plays. I continue to love his quick feet, his change of direction, the fact that he wastes zero time with useless moves and is always moving forward even when he's making moves. His vision is good and he can gear down in traffic to alter his course. He also shows aggressiveness when he finishes his runs. My only criticism would be that on one of Camarda's long punts, he could have fielded the ball in the air. Instead he let it bounce before scurrying back to the five yard line to pick it up. But he made a good return out of it and got it out almost to the twenty. Incidentally I would say it was a smart move to pick it up when he did since he did have room to make a play while if he had let it go there was a decent chance it would have been downed inside the five yard line. So yeah, a big day for Covey. Maybe that'll shut up the detractors, of which there have been too many for no real good reason.

* The Eagles activated hurdle champion Devon Allen to return kicks since Boston Scott was out. His debut was largely forgettable. His only kick return only went to the sixteen yard line. The Eagles in effect lost nine yards, as they'd have gotten it at the 25 if he'd have stayed in the endzone.

* There wasn't much else. Overall a good day for the units.

Franklin, correct me if I am wrong, but Elliott started the season with an Elo Rating of 2302, which ranked eleventh in the league.
Week One his Elo Rating improved to 2324, which ranked ninth in the league.
Week Two his Elo Rating dropped a tic down to 2321, but his ranking rose to eighth in the league.
Week Three Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2326, and his ranking rose again to seventh in the league

The Top Five Kickers are Gay (2379, +1.86); D Carlson (2377, +1.82); Tucker (2371, +1.70); Gano (2365, +1.58); and Koo (2344; +1.16).
Elliott is now 7th.  Who is 6th?

Since Game 14 of last year his climb has been steady ... 72 Elo Rating points and up from 23rd to 7th.
In the Super Bowl his Elo Rating improved to 2302, which ranked 11th in the league.
In the 49ers NFCCG his Elo Rating improved to 2299, which ranked 14th in the league.
In the Giants NFCDG his Elo Rating improved to 2298, which was tied for 14th in the league.
In the Giants season finale his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2297, which is tied for 12th in the league.
In the Saints game his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2275, which ranked 21st in the league.
In the Cowboys game his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2265, which ranked 23rd in the league
In the Bears game his Elo Kicking Rating fell to 2258, which ranked 23rd in the league

What will it take for him to overtake Koo?  The Week One 4 for 4 performance elevated his Elo by 22 points.  Will another 4 for 4 like that one bump him up to 2348?

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

Franklin, correct me if I am wrong, but Elliott started the season with an Elo Rating of 2302, which ranked eleventh in the league.
Week One his Elo Rating improved to 2324, which ranked ninth in the league.
Week Two his Elo Rating dropped a tic down to 2321, but his ranking rose to eighth in the league.
Week Three Elo Kicking Rating improved slightly to 2326, and his ranking rose again to seventh in the league

The Top Five Kickers are Gay (2379, +1.86); D Carlson (2377, +1.82); Tucker (2371, +1.70); Gano (2365, +1.58); and Koo (2344; +1.16).
Elliott is now 7th.  Who is 6th?

Since Game 14 of last year his climb has been steady ... 72 Elo Rating points and up from 23rd to 7th.
In the Super Bowl his Elo Rating improved to 2302, which ranked 11th in the league.
In the 49ers NFCCG his Elo Rating improved to 2299, which ranked 14th in the league.
In the Giants NFCDG his Elo Rating improved to 2298, which was tied for 14th in the league.
In the Giants season finale his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2297, which is tied for 12th in the league.
In the Saints game his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2275, which ranked 21st in the league.
In the Cowboys game his Elo Kicking Rating improved to 2265, which ranked 23rd in the league
In the Bears game his Elo Kicking Rating fell to 2258, which ranked 23rd in the league

What will it take for him to overtake Koo?  The Week One 4 for 4 performance elevated his Elo by 22 points.  Will another 4 for 4 like that one bump him up to 2348?

Depends on how far his kicks are. If you go 4 for 4 from PAT distances you’re not going to gain many points, especially the higher you’re rated. The higher your rating, you gain points much more slowly and lose points much more easily. Heck, Elliott lost points against the Vikings after making a 61 yarder since he also missed from 55. A lower rated kicker would have gained points with that combination. That’s what makes Tucker so impressive. He bombs kicks from outside of fifty and hardly moves up much. But one miss from 45 and he’s losing twenty(ish) points. 

Elliott would probably have to make about three fifty yarders without a miss to move into the top five. Assuming the other guys remain where they are.

I don’t have it in front of me at the moment, but I believe Prater is sixth. He usually lurks just outside the top five but in the top ten or fifteen. 

 

 

For example, suppose you attempt three field goals in one game, from 30, 40, and 50 yards, and make them all.

If your rating is 2100, you'll go up to 2123 for a gain of 23 points.

If your rating is 2200, you'll go up to 2216 for a gain of 16 points.

If your rating is 2300, you'll go up to 2310 for a gain of 10 points.

If your rating is 2400, you'll go up to 2404 for a gain of only 4 points.

Once you get close to the top of the list, you really gotta string together a solid four or five weeks of field goal kicking to make a significant gain. Sprinkle in one miss, even from a semi-long distance, and you're right back where you started.

7 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

 

The snap to foot times on the Eagles punt was under 2.00 seconds, which is perfectly good. The Bucs were a bit slower than normal, around 2.10 seconds. Perhaps that's the knock on Camarda, that he takes a bit to unwind. I would think that if were to play them in the postseason, I would make a mental note that this might be a team that you should try to block a punt on. Write it down in pencil and revisit this in January.

 

Did you see how close Barnett came to blocking that punt that ended up being the big Covey return?

4 hours ago, brkmsn said:

Did you see how close Barnett came to blocking that punt that ended up being the big Covey return?

Yes, I did see pressure on one of the punts.

Well it is going to be interesting to see how much further up Elliott’s Elo rating goes after hitting from 54, 47, 41 and 36 today.

Matt Gay missed his only attempt, Daniel Carlson made his only attempt from 22 yards, Tucker had no attempts, Gano plays tomorrow night, Koo had no attempts, and Prater made his only attempt from 38 yards.

4 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Well it is going to be interesting to see how much further up Elliott’s Elo rating goes after hitting from 54, 47, 41 and 36 today.

Matt Gay missed his only attempt, Daniel Carlson made his only attempt from 22 yards, Tucker had no attempts, Gano plays tomorrow night, Koo had no attempts, and Prater made his only attempt from 38 yards.

He's seventh at the moment.

After a poor first punt going only 34 yards, Mann’s second and third punts went 48 yards and 47 yards respectively.  Much better.  It will be interesting to see what the hang time on the three punts was.

Washington game.

Braden Mann punted three times. Two were not good. One was. He averaged about 43.3 yards and 4.48 hangtime. Two were in the air for at least 4.5 seconds. One was hit outside the numbers. The usually brilliant Tress Way punted for the Commanders and had a surprisingly mediocre performance. He punted five times and averaged about 43.6 yards and 4.34 hangtime. Only two had a hangtime of at least 4.5 seconds. Two were hit outside the numbers. The better statistical game goes to Mann, putting his mark at 1-1 on the season. The Eagles as a team are now 2-2 on the year.

On the season, Mann is averaging about 42.0 yards and 4.43 hangtime with 50% at 4.5 seconds and 25% hit outside the numbers. Opposing punters are averaging 48.1 yards and 4.33 hangtime with 33% at 4.5 seconds and 44% outside the numbers. Overall I would say that Mann has been below average.

The snap to foot times for both teams were good. Consistently a shade under 2.0 seconds. No issues whatsoever there. Mann has a kind of funky style but it's not slow.

With the possible exception of a game in Denver with Matt Prater and Alex Henery when just about everything went out of the back of the endzone in a high scoring affair, I don't think I've ever seen a better display of kicking off than what we saw in this game. Both kickers were exceptional, not only in distance but also in hangtime. Jake Elliott kicked off seven times with an average of about 74.0 yards and an incredible 4.57 hangtime. Curiously his worst kick was the one he actually needed, the one where the had to kick off from the twenty instead of the thirty-five. Joey Slye kicked off five times with an average of 75.0 yards and 4.50 hangtime. These are brilliant numbers across the board. The weather was glorious and that was an obvious factor. But kudos all around.

On the season, Elliott is now averaging about 73.6 yards and 4.26 hangtime while opponents are averaging about 73.1 yards and 4.28 hangtime. Strong numbers. Over time they'll definitely come down as the weather gets colder and the ball won't sail as much.

Placekick times for both units were normal. Right around 1.30 to 1.35 seconds from the snapper's hand until the foot impacted the ball.

Elliott made all four of his field goals, including the clutch game winner in overtime. The expected number based on the distances of the kicks was about 2.85. On the season he's now 13-of-14 from distances with an expectancy of about 9.90. So he's plus 3.1, meaning he's "earned" the Eagles about 9.3 points above expected value. On fourteen kicks, that's a great number. It calculates to .665 points per kick which is stratospheric. His average attempt distance is 43.2 yards, which is longer than the league average which tends to be around 39 yards. From 43.2 yards, a kicker would be expected to make about 75%. He's at 93%. His Elo Kicking average improved to 2342, which is seventh in the league. (I mistakenly said he was seventh last week when he was actually eighth. Sorry.) He's at 1.08 standard deviations above the mean. The league average is 2288. The rating of Eagles Opponents nudged up slightly to 2291, which would rank seventeenth in the league and is 0.06 standard deviations above the the mean.

The Top Five Kickers after four weeks are D. Carlson (2377, +1.79); Gano (2372, +1.69); Tucker (2371, +1.67); Gay (2358, +1.41); and Folk (2346, +1.17). The Bottom Five are Moody (2232, -1.13); A. Carlson (2227, -1.23); Lutz (2220, -1.37); Grupe (2212, -1.53); and Ryland (2187, -2.03).

Other stuff (not much):

* Looked like a slightly low snap by Lovato on the Eagles first PAT.

* Covey's first punt return was quietly impressive. Rather than call for a fair catch, he secured the ball and quickly and aggressively darted forward for eight yards in traffic. I think that's a play where most returners either call a fair catch, or they catch the ball and dance for a moment or two and pick up only a yard or two.

* The Commanders return man called for a fair catch and ran with the ball but no penalty was called. Weird.

* Covey had a twenty(ish) yard return late in regulation which seemingly put the Eagles into good position to win the game right then. But their final drive didn't exactly play out the way I had thought it might. I was expecting a "Chiefs in the Super Bowl" kind of situation where they milk the clock to the final seconds and kick the winning kick with little or no time left.

* I still can't believe how average Tress Way was. He's been really, really good for quite a while now.

* On to the Rams. Let's go.

 

16 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

* Covey's first punt return was quietly impressive. Rather than call for a fair catch, he secured the ball and quickly and aggressively darted forward for eight yards in traffic. I think that's a play where most returners either call a fair catch, or they catch the ball and dance for a moment or two and pick up only a yard or two.

 

Thanks as always Franklin.  I too noted that first Covey return for the same reasons.  His maturation as a punt returner is remarkable. 

It's no longer a Delay of Game penalty when you run after signaling a fair catch.

Just a dead ball at the spot of the catch.

15 hours ago, Connecticut Eagle said:

It's no longer a Delay of Game penalty when you run after signaling a fair catch.

Just a dead ball at the spot of the catch.

Thanks.  I didn't know that.