15 minutes ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

Thought this was interesting and it builds the case to go CB in round one. 
 

 

Skewed distribution in a couple of cases.  You can really see that at QB, Brady skews the mean way down to 46.8 but the median is up at 24.  Someone is really skewing the RT distribution, too!

It’s entertaining to see that most of the top 15 CBs were picked right around where we are picking.  

 

 

Tried nflmockdraftdatabase. No trades.  Not bad...  

Round: 1 -12    Jaycee Horn  CB | South Carolina

Round: 2 -37   Elijah Moore   WR | Mississippi

Round: 3 - 70   Richie Grant   S | UCF

Round: 3 - 84   Dylan Moses   LB | Alabama

Round: 4 -123  Elerson Smith   EDGE | Northern Iowa

Round: 5 - 150   Rhamondre Stevenson   RB | Oklahoma

Round: 6 - 189  Richard LeCounte   S | Georgia

Round: 6 - 224   Tommy Kraemer   IOL | Notre Dame

Round: 6 - 225   Michal Menet    IOL | Penn State

Round: 7 - 234   Adetokunbo Ogundeji     EDGE | Notre Dame

Round: 7 - 240  Ian Book    QB | Notre Dame

Teams draft players according to how much they value the role they will fill.

That becomes a cyclical and replicating confounding variable.  

Teams don't value 4-3 OLB, safety, IOL as much.  When someone does go in that range, it usually is because they are so good they force teams to take them.  So the devalued positions will have higher hit rates.  The QBs, blindside protectors, edge rushers, and fast WRs...everyone wants those.  If you MIGHT have the specs to be one of those, you get drafted early and often.  So the hit rate goes down for those positions.

Don't just look at hit %...look at how often every position is drafted top 10, top 15, 1st round, etc.  That shows you the blueprint of where teams want their talent.  And those positions are naturally going to have a lower success rate.  And then some overly-analytical pundits will start reverse-engineering what positions have the highest hit rate...it's naturally going to be the positions that are not usually emphasized early.  When they DO go early, they are better prospects who are more consistently handed jobs with less investment in competition.

1 hour ago, CaliEagle said:

This website has the most realistic draft simulator, in my opinion.  https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator.  It is a lot more realistic with trades, too. It's tougher to get a great draft.  The PFF mock and PFN mock are too easy. 

Whatever algorithm that site uses it basically does the same thing over and over.  Every draft I've done there JAX has taken Trevon Moehrig EVERY time at #25.  Every.  Single.  Time.  That's weird.  I do like that their trades are more reasonable than the other sites.  As long as you are in the ballpark of the draft value trade chart then it accepts your trades.  The one site, I forget which, the only trades you can do on it are when you're offered one by another team, which you usually are in the first few rounds from multiple teams.  Then when you try to do one and keep it fair it never accepts it. 

2 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

Exactly why Howie would take him there:) He loves take a player one round too early. 

Well, when it's a player he REALLY likes then he doesn't want those other teams to draft him before he can since he was the one who targeted the player to being with.  Those pesky meddling other teams always drafting our players before we get the chance. 

 

9 minutes ago, Green_Guinness said:

Whatever algorithm that site uses it basically does the same thing over and over.  Every draft I've done there JAX has taken Trevon Moehrig EVERY time at #25.  Every.  Single.  Time.  That's weird.  I do like that their trades are more reasonable than the other sites.  As long as you are in the ballpark of the draft value trade chart then it accepts your trades.  The one site, I forget which, the only trades you can do on it are when you're offered one by another team, which you usually are in the first few rounds from multiple teams.  Then when you try to do one and keep it fair it never accepts it. 

I did a couple on that site where trevor lawrence did not go #1 overall lol

4 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

Who likes looking stuff up on google? Question- When is the last time arguably the best safety in the draft was a red-shirt senior? What round was he drafted in?

I ask because Richie Grant seems neck and neck with Moehrig but grant is the redshirt senior. Id love it if he was available in round 3. Not sure if thats possible. 

I,like Holland more than Grant and would love to see him in the second. 

3 hours ago, eagle45 said:

That will pair well with a right side of the OL featuring Nate Herbig and Matt Pryor.

We suck everywhere.

Apples to oranges. They have pro-bowl options at RG and RT if Brooks and Lane are healthy. Not to mention those two lineman you mentioned are backups to backups when you consider Driscoll and Mailata would be next up at RG and RT.

Either way they have NOTHING at corner outside of Slay. Maddox isn't even a lock to be this awesome slot corner that some people seem to think he is. The division is loaded at the WR position. Coming out of this draft with only one corner and from the fourth round no less would make past draft mistakes look like great decisions.

1 hour ago, What The F said:

Tried nflmockdraftdatabase. No trades.  Not bad...  

Round: 1 -12    Jaycee Horn  CB | South Carolina

Round: 2 -37   Elijah Moore   WR | Mississippi

Round: 3 - 70   Richie Grant   S | UCF

Round: 3 - 84   Dylan Moses   LB | Alabama

Round: 4 -123  Elerson Smith   EDGE | Northern Iowa

Round: 5 - 150   Rhamondre Stevenson   RB | Oklahoma

Round: 6 - 189  Richard LeCounte   S | Georgia

Round: 6 - 224   Tommy Kraemer   IOL | Notre Dame

Round: 6 - 225   Michal Menet    IOL | Penn State

Round: 7 - 234   Adetokunbo Ogundeji     EDGE | Notre Dame

Round: 7 - 240  Ian Book    QB | Notre Dame

That's a really good draft other than Dylan Moses.

1 hour ago, T-1000 said:

Apples to oranges. They have pro-bowl options at RG and RT if Brooks and Lane are healthy. Not to mention those two lineman you mentioned are backups to backups when you consider Driscoll and Mailata would be next up at RG and RT.

Either way they have NOTHING at corner outside of Slay. Maddox isn't even a lock to be this awesome slot corner that some people seem to think he is. The division is loaded at the WR position. Coming out of this draft with only one corner and from the fourth round no less would make past draft mistakes look like great decisions.

Except winning is not the priority this season, adding talent is - so if Slater is the BPA, you take Slater and have a great OL for the next 3-5 seasons.

You may lose games 35-30, but next draft if there are good CBs available, you'll have first dibs on most of them.

9 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Except winning is not the priority this season, adding talent is - so if Slater is the BPA, you take Slater and have a great OL for the next 3-5 seasons.

You may lose games 35-30, but next draft if there are good CBs available, you'll have first dibs on most of them.

First off, I never said they should force a CB pick at 12 nor do I think that. What I said was, it would be a horrendous failure if the Eagles came out of the draft having only drafted one CB in round four. With that out of the way....

....winning or losing this year has nothing to do with why corner is such a massive need. They have ONE known player at the position and this is Darius Slay who is 30 years old and essentially on a two year deal. Right now, next year, two years from now corner is by far the biggest need this team has. The NFL is, has been in recent years, and will likely continue to be a passing game. Teams need to have 3 or 4 good corners.

By all means though, if you are fine with Slay, Jacquet, Maddox, and a fourth round rookie filling out the CB depth chart more power to you.

4 hours ago, T-1000 said:

Apples to oranges. They have pro-bowl options at RG and RT if Brooks and Lane are healthy. Not to mention those two lineman you mentioned are backups to backups when you consider Driscoll and Mailata would be next up at RG and RT.

Either way they have NOTHING at corner outside of Slay. Maddox isn't even a lock to be this awesome slot corner that some people seem to think he is. The division is loaded at the WR position. Coming out of this draft with only one corner and from the fourth round no less would make past draft mistakes look like great decisions.

We aren’t really in a position where we have to come out of this draft upgrading CB (or WR/OL/edge).  That’s how reaches and busts are born.

As Afan said, add talent.  If we add a stud at one of those positions in round 1, a very good starter at another in round 2, and completely neglect one of them, then that’s ok...a pretty good start to the rebuild.  Whichever of those positions is neglected this year, we should be able to really hammer next year.

2 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

We aren’t really in a position where we have to come out of this draft upgrading CB (or WR/OL/edge).  That’s how reaches and busts are born.

As Afan said, add talent.  If we add a stud at one of those positions in round 1, a very good starter at another in round 2, and completely neglect one of them, then that’s ok...a pretty good start to the rebuild.  Whichever of those positions is neglected this year, we should be able to really hammer next year.

CB is a FAR bigger need than any of those other positions you named. I will also tell you what I told the other guy. I never said nor am I advocating to reach for a corner at 12, or even 37 for that matter. From a numbers perspective though and with 11 picks you have to come out of this draft with more than 1 CB and you can't wait until round four to add one either.

4 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

CB is a FAR bigger need than any of those other positions you named. I will also tell you what I told the other guy. I never said nor am I advocating to reach for a corner at 12, or even 37 for that matter. From a numbers perspective though and with 11 picks you have to come out of this draft with more than 1 CB and you can't wait until round four to add one either.

I don’t see why we HAVE to draft a CB in rounds 1-3 and HAVE to draft more than 1, nor do I agree that CB is by far a bigger need.

So what if our secondary sucks next year?

If we add a long term piece and strength at OL, WR, and edge...an unrealistic expectation...then I don’t care if we have open tryouts at CB.  We have the resources to add the best CBs in college football next year.

Aside from RB/S/LB, they really should be position blind.  Add great players, don’t check boxes on the depth chart.  

22 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

CB is a FAR bigger need than any of those other positions you named. I will also tell you what I told the other guy. I never said nor am I advocating to reach for a corner at 12, or even 37 for that matter. From a numbers perspective though and with 11 picks you have to come out of this draft with more than 1 CB and you can't wait until round four to add one either.

maybe in his scenario they just drafted St Juste, but then signed Steven Nelson. Calm down.

9 hours ago, Desertbirds said:

All I want out of this draft is to not be shaking my head saying WTF for the first four picks.

I can’t keep you from saying WTF about the picks but this should help keep you from shaking your head...

7 hours ago, eagle45 said:

I don't really want to see the Eagles go for one of the tier 2 WRs on day 2.  It just feels like our usual opportunity to add a Reggie Brown / Jordan Matthews target eater.  Not sure I see any guys projected to go in round 2-3 at WR that offer an interesting dimension to our offense.

I've mentioned him a few times but Amari Rodgers falls under offensive weapon much l like Kyle Pitts.  He's a bowling ball at slot WR and if the coaching staff is true to word and can create plays to take advantage of their players he could be a big mismatch.  The key is using him the right way.  I think he's a round 4 guy now.

14 hours ago, ManuManu said:

I’d be cool with him at 12. I know I’m in a very small minority there. 

I'd be okay with him at 12 too. Mostly because I don't think Hurts has it

10 hours ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

That’s ridiculous.  If they liked a QB in the 1st round of this draft, they wouldn’t trade down to 12. They aren’t drafting a QB in the 1st.  I don’t know how many times it needs to be said.  

unless of course 1 falls that they want. 

40 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

If there was one that they wanted, they wouldn’t have traded down from 6.  They would have had a better chance at getting him there than 12.   They’ve showed their hand.   Now they are trying to create the illusion that they might be in the QB game to try and throw others off.   The only QB they were interested in after the trade down is Deshaun Watson.  I’m pretty sure that’s why they traded down as early as they did.  To give themselves the option and ammo to get Watson if they felt his situation cleared up by now.  Which I guess it hasn’t.   

If one falls all bets are off. Gift horse and all that. But no sense arguing hypotheticals 

Kyle Shanahan on whether Jimmy G will be a 49er on Sunday;  "I can’t guarantee anyone on the planet will be alive on Sunday”.
 So you’re telling me there’s a chance, lol. 

  
 
 

10 hours ago, MillerTime said:

Devonta Smith led the NCAA with 618 yards after contact for those of you who are worried about his size.

I'm not worried about his size, but how is that relative to the NFL? And I don't think it's necessarily a good thing if his body took extra beatings in college

10 hours ago, Desertbirds said:

All I want out of this draft is to not be shaking my head saying WTF for the first four picks.

And I want to win the lottery. We both have the same odds

Pelissero  must read the boards , I said last night 3 guys who will go higher than people think

Basham

Radunz

Rousseau

this morning he does a article on same subject  , and 2 of his 5 are Radunz and Basham 

7 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Pelissero  must read the boards , I said last night 3 guys who will go higher than people think

Basham

Radunz

Rousseau

this morning he does a article on same subject  , and 2 of his 5 are Radunz and Basham 

Given that Boogie is a redshirt senior, I’d be more comfortable if he slid to 70 - but I agree he’s too polished to make it that far... I kind of figure we are going CB/WR/ obvious BPA with our first two picks, so Basham isn’t in the cards for us. If Howie trades back in either round, and gets a mid 2nd... oh yeah.

@hputenis

just dropping by to let you know that I had Chipotle last night 

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