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EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

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4 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I don’t think it was a negotiation. It was more, we know you’re inexperienced so let’s help you with the staff. I can’t imagine it was expected that Howie and Jeff would continue hiring and firing coaches. They probably didn’t either. Regardless, he was treated like a 17 year old. He was given some freedom, but he wasn’t tested like an adult. 

Well his actual staff he did hire or wanted to promote the last 2 years did not instill confidence in me so again I have to agree with Jeff here

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16 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Probably because what he thought he wanted in theory, didn't look as good once he got him.

I seriously doubt Howie, who hoards draft picks, used a 4th if Schwartz didn't lobby for Avery.

You just can't see how bad Howie has been these last few years?  

1 minute ago, Ipiggles said:

Well his actual staff he did hire or wanted to promote the last 2 years did not instill confidence in me so again I have to agree with Jeff here

The fact he had the balls to tell them he wanted to bring back Cory undlin is pretty funny. He was ragged on by all of us here and then he went to Detroit and his guys performed worse. And yet he wanted him back as DC lol 

Just now, bpac55 said:

You just can't see how bad Howie has been these last few years?  

Hard to with his head so far... 

1 hour ago, ManuManu said:

I for one still like Reagor (even though the odds of him being as good as Jefferson showed are slim to none). Hurts and Taylor were dumb picks from the outset. 

But both Hurts and Taylor are low floor/high ceiling picks.  Hurts was the fastest QB in the draft.  Good accuracy in college.   His low floor was because he was mainly a one look and go QB in college.  Now he does show some ability to go through progressions so he does have a higher ceiling. Plus, unfortunately with Hero Ball Wentz at QB, the Eagles have shown a need for a solid back up QB.  If you look at the NFCE this year, all four teams needed that.  I hate that they used a second round pick but it is not completely dumb. Kind of glad we had him for when the OL was in total shambles and it was time to protect Wentz from being Kolbed or Carred  

Taylor, in the late third is the epitome of low floor/high ceiling guy.  Shows some natural instincts and football IQ and is a super athletic player but he is green.   Round value seemed a bit high for me but not that much.  That high ceiling was him chasing Lamar Smith down from behind.  I suspect he would have received more playing time about the time he went out with his MCL.  

I am just saying that high ceiling guys may take a bit of time.  Next year should fill in some of the blanks for all of the 2020 draft choices.  There will be some busts but there will be some hits too.  There will also be some good enoughs too. 

10 minutes ago, RLC said:

The Eagles do not win SB52 without analytics. The organization would tell you that.

It's not an accident that the most aggressive team on 4th down was successful. 

Sure.   Its not an accident that the most aggressive team on 4th down this year was unsuccessful.   He's an interesting stat... in 2017, Eagles went for it on 4th downs the 2nd most in the league... at 1.5 times per game.  GB was highest at 1.8 times.   In 2020, the Eagles were MORE aggressive going for it 2.2 times per game.  In the last 17 seasons, only ONE other team ever went over 2 times per game.  The 2007 Jags - 2.1.   The 2020 Eagles were the most aggressive 4th down team in the HISTORY of the NFL...  

 

So, I think that while they may credit that for the victory, it wasn't as much about the analytics, but the SUCCESS RATE when going for it.   They were aggressive AND they were good at converting in 2017.  They were far more aggressive in 2020, but much much worse at converting.  Blind analytics is not the answer.

 

Source: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/fourth-downs-per-game?date=2021-01-16

 

20 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

I don't know about that. We did have the episode with Tate where the coaches admitted that they did not know how to incorporate him into the offense.

That was truly embarrassing and I was surprised he wasn't fired that day

59 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

No it really isn't a no-no. If he regains his previous form (which I believe he will) It will be fairly cheap in comparison to others in the league and what the new QB contracts look like. . 

Which previous form? 

7 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

But both Hurts and Taylor are low floor/high ceiling picks.  Hurts was the fastest QB in the draft.  Good accuracy in college.   His low floor was because he was mainly a one look and go QB in college.  Now he does show some ability to go through progressions so he does have a higher ceiling. Plus, unfortunately with Hero Ball Wentz at QB, the Eagles have shown a need for a solid back up QB.  If you look at the NFCE this year, all four teams needed that.  I hate that they used a second round pick but it is not completely dumb. Kind of glad we had him for when the OL was in total shambles and it was time to protect Wentz from being Kolbed or Carred  

Taylor, in the late third is the epitome of low floor/high ceiling guy.  Shows some natural instincts and football IQ and is a super athletic player but he is green.   Round value seemed a bit high for me but not that much.  That high ceiling was him chasing Lamar Smith down from behind.  I suspect he would have received more playing time about the time he went out with his MCL.  

I am just saying that high ceiling guys may take a bit of time.  Next year should fill in some of the blanks for all of the 2020 draft choices.  There will be some busts but there will be some hits too.  There will also be some good enoughs too. 

The fact that Howie took so many low floor/high ceiling developmental players tells me he was never all in for 2020, rather, he was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

The only move that cost future resources was trading for Slay, and they had 3 extra comp picks (note, a 4th for Tate, so he only cost moving back one round). Slay could probably be flipped for a decent draft pick after the 2021 season if they decide to go that path.

The contract restructurings were sunk cost going into the season.

17 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

But both Hurts and Taylor are low floor/high ceiling picks.  Hurts was the fastest QB in the draft.  Good accuracy in college.   His low floor was because he was mainly a one look and go QB in college.  Now he does show some ability to go through progressions so he does have a higher ceiling. Plus, unfortunately with Hero Ball Wentz at QB, the Eagles have shown a need for a solid back up QB.  If you look at the NFCE this year, all four teams needed that.  I hate that they used a second round pick but it is not completely dumb. Kind of glad we had him for when the OL was in total shambles and it was time to protect Wentz from being Kolbed or Carred  

Taylor, in the late third is the epitome of low floor/high ceiling guy.  Shows some natural instincts and football IQ and is a super athletic player but he is green.   Round value seemed a bit high for me but not that much.  That high ceiling was him chasing Lamar Smith down from behind.  I suspect he would have received more playing time about the time he went out with his MCL.  

I am just saying that high ceiling guys may take a bit of time.  Next year should fill in some of the blanks for all of the 2020 draft choices.  There will be some busts but there will be some hits too.  There will also be some good enoughs too. 

There's a time for guys with some super low floors to be good value.   Hurts was picked a round early, IMO.  Taylor, by most accounts, was about 2 rounds early.

26 minutes ago, Ipiggles said:

Well his actual staff he did hire or wanted to promote the last 2 years did not instill confidence in me so again I have to agree with Jeff here

OK... but you can see how forcing outside voices Doug doesn’t trust is just as bad as Doug going with the ones he did trust?

6 minutes ago, austinfan said:

The fact that Howie took so many low floor/high ceiling developmental players tells me he was never all in for 2020, rather, he was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

The only move that cost future resources was trading for Slay, and they had 3 extra comp picks (note, a 4th for Tate, so he only cost moving back one round). Slay could probably be flipped for a decent draft pick after the 2021 season if they decide to go that path.

The contract restructurings were sunk cost going into the season.

So he half-assed it?

56 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Going with Hurts is a "win now," RPO or bust move.

Going with Wentz is don't give up on a potential franchise QB while you rebuild, at worst you can dump him in two years with a much smaller cap hit.

Meanwhile, anyone who watched Hurts knows he can only win by running, which is not a long-term strategy, if you want him as a starting QB you need to spend a year on his mechanics and reading defenses, not pulling the ball and taking off ten times a game.

If Pederson said he wanted to go with Hurts, he was saying winning now is more important to his career, and screw rebuilding even if it means a better team down the road.

RPO requires accuracy, the few RPO's Hurts was given he was terrible with, he barely could hit 50% completions on screens and swing passes.

50 minutes ago, jwill2420 said:

 Is that it’s urban Meyer wonder how interested he would be In Justin Fields at 1 overall. You know from the OSU connection. 

Smart recruited Fields to Georgia, Day got him as a transfer.

41 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Wow... that is so wrong... let me count the ways!!!

Howie obviously told Schwartz he wasn’t worth a 4, but because he does everything he can to serve his coaches he did it anyway. 

Howie was right again. 

49 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Urban Meyer will be out of the NFL in less than 4 years.  Because.....Urban Meyer.  

'Heart issues' after 2 losing seasons and heat?

Just now, Iggles_Phan said:

There's a time for guys with some super low floors to be good value.   Hurts was picked a round early, IMO.  Taylor, by most accounts, was about 2 rounds early.

When a guy doesn't play well, other scouts "well, we know he wasn't that good," when he then turns it on the following season, other scouts: "we had him high on our draft board."

Hurts was definitely a 2nd rd pick, other than Foles and Wilson, how many QB picked in the 3rd rd have NFL success.

2019: no QB taken between 42 and 100

2018:  Rudolph #86

2017:  Kizer #52, Webb #87

2016:  Hackenberg #51, Brissett #91, Kessler #93

2015:  Grayson #75, Mannion #89

2014:  Garropollo #62

2013:  Glennon #73, Barkley #98

2012:  Osweiler #57, Wilson #75, Foles #88, Cousins #102

2011:  Mallett #74

2010:  Clausen #48, McCoy #75

potential starting QBs are always taken before #40, 2012 is a huge outlier, otherwise backup QB types with an outside chance of starting get drafted 50-75.

9 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

OK... but you can see how forcing outside voices Doug doesn’t trust is just as bad as Doug going with the ones he did trust?

So he half-assed it?

Sorta. He wasn't going to break the bank to go for it last season.

Only major signing was Hargrave (replacing Jerrigan and knowing Malik would walk the next year) and he let Jenkins, Darby and Agholor walk. Should net two comp picks this draft.

4 minutes ago, austinfan said:

When a guy doesn't play well, other scouts "well, we know he wasn't that good," when he then turns it on the following season, other scouts: "we had him high on our draft board."

Hurts was definitely a 2nd rd pick, other than Foles and Wilson, how many QB picked in the 3rd rd have NFL success.

2019: no QB taken between 42 and 100

2018:  Rudolph #86

2017:  Kizer #52, Webb #87

2016:  Hackenberg #51, Brissett #91, Kessler #93

2015:  Grayson #75, Mannion #89

2014:  Garropollo #62

2013:  Glennon #73, Barkley #98

2012:  Osweiler #57, Wilson #75, Foles #88, Cousins #102

2011:  Mallett #74

2010:  Clausen #48, McCoy #75

potential starting QBs are always taken before #40, 2012 is a huge outlier, otherwise backup QB types with an outside chance of starting get drafted 50-75.

So backup types with an outside chance of starting are bad uses of second round picks when you already had a franchise QB in place, no?

47 minutes ago, jwill2420 said:

😆

 

I just remember Gates Rivers and Allen having some really good years around that time. Maybe I’m off...

You're not.

Rivers was pissed when McCoy fired him.

I stand by my statement that many knew he was close to an HC gig.

Just now, austinfan said:

Sorta. He wasn't going to break the bank to go for it last season.

Only major signing was Hargrave (replacing Jerrigan and knowing Malik would walk the next year) and he let Jenkins, Darby and Agholor walk. Should net two comp picks this draft.

So his big moves were to trade for a very good but aging corner, pump a bunch of money into DT again, then draft a backup QB and a LB who couldn’t start for several years. 

Helluva plan. 

Just now, austinfan said:

Sorta. He wasn't going to break the bank to go for it last season.

Only major signing was Hargrave (replacing Jerrigan and knowing Malik would walk the next year) and he let Jenkins, Darby and Agholor walk. Should net two comp picks this draft.

Whooooo Hooooooo Comp PiCkZzzzZzz

Just now, ManuManu said:

So his big moves were to trade for a very good but aging corner, pump a bunch of money into DT again, then draft a backup QB and a LB who couldn’t start for several years. 

Helluva plan. 

Oh yeah that worked like a champ! Can’t image why Eagles fans hate the guy???

1 minute ago, PrinceKelby said:

You're not.

Rivers was pissed when McCoy fired him.

Yeah. Plus it was all down hill for McCoy afterwards. 

Here’s another thing, if Howie knew we were heading toward an eventual tear down, why on earth did he trade for Slay and sign a 27-year-old DT to big money?

Should've just signed Bradberry, another miscalculation on his part. Bradberry is better and didn't cost draft compensation. Howie is a joke, the whole league knows it at this point and he needs to go.

4 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So his big moves were to trade for a very good but aging corner, pump a bunch of money into DT again, then draft a backup QB and a LB who couldn’t start for several years. 

Helluva plan. 

Basically howie’s plan 

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I have to say, I am excited for a new vision on defense. I can't wait to see whom is in charge so we can start to look at draft prospects that may fit.
 

I want to trade out of 6. Just too many holes and we are missing a couple picks this year no less. Move back to 10 or so and maybe even again to around 13ish recouping picks, all the while staying in the top 15 where we should hit.

One defensive dark horse player I'm really liking is Kwity Paye. Can play anywhere across the line, quick burst off the line and into the backfield, thick & strong, attacks tenaciously, hits with force, can bend a bit, really liking him. I'd have no problem recouping picks and adding him to the d-line arsenal. 

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