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EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

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8 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Here’s another thing, if Howie knew we were heading toward an eventual tear down, why on earth did he trade for Slay and sign a 27-year-old DT to big money?

I brought this same thing up the other day too him. He’ll say well they saw covid so they pivoted from a rebuilds to going in on winning the division. Like winning the division with a team you know isn’t a true contender means anything. It’s basically spinning your wheels in purgatory.  It’s a stupid ass reason for doing it. You knew you had to rebuild and you gave up a 3rd and a 5th for a corner that by the time you complete the rebuild is likely out of his prime and essentially wasted those good years he had left.  

Add on if you believe they trade him to get picks back he is a year older, left a lot of games, gonna need an extension in the next 2 years and likely get even less back then what you gave up. So in a rebuild which was they badly needed and now definitely needed so trading 3rd and 5th made no sense. They should’ve just went all in on Byron jones or Bradbury. Then it is only money and cap space not draft picks and cap. 

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10 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So backup types with an outside chance of starting are bad uses of second round picks when you already had a franchise QB in place, no?

Not when your starting QB has a history of injuries, can't win games from the trainer's table.

We won with Foles, lost with McNown, we had Vick behind McNabb.

7 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Here’s another thing, if Howie knew we were heading toward an eventual tear down, why on earth did he trade for Slay and sign a 27-year-old DT to big money?

Because COVID.

4 minutes ago, austinfan said:

The fact that Howie took so many low floor/high ceiling developmental players tells me he was never all in for 2020, rather, he was hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

The only move that cost future resources was trading for Slay, and they had 3 extra comp picks (note, a 4th for Tate, so he only cost moving back one round). Slay could probably be flipped for a decent draft pick after the 2021 season if they decide to go that path.

The contract restructurings were sunk cost going into the season.

Tate cost moving back a round and a half... AND had to wait a year to get that pick back.  So, much worse return on that investment.

 

You keep focusing on 2020, like Howie didn't start digging this hole that the Eagles are in years ago through making the dumb picks, dumb contracts and dumb trades.  Desean - prior to 2019 season, Alshon restructure - prior to 2019 season, Brooks extension - Nov. 2019 (he was signed through 2021 before that extension), Johnson extension - 19 days after Brooks (he was signed through 2021 as well)... These are HUGE deals for players over 30.  Johnson is the highest paid RT in total dollars for a contract, while also being the OLDEST in the top 5.  Johnson's contract is $4+M higher than any other RT in 2021.  Drops to #4 in 2022, and then skyrockets back to #1 in 2023 at $21+M (more than $5M higher than the 2nd place).  Brandon Graham was resigned prior to the 2019 season - $17.9M for 2021.  And if they decide to move on... $17.2M... including if traded due to giving WAY too much money in signing bonus for a player of his age.  

 

Long story short... Howie was writing ridiculously BIG checks to these guys who are closer to the end of their careers than their beginning.   Paying for past performance is nice and all, but its not going to be good in the end for salary cap maintenance.   

20 minutes ago, austinfan said:

When a guy doesn't play well, other scouts "well, we know he wasn't that good," when he then turns it on the following season, other scouts: "we had him high on our draft board."

Hurts was definitely a 2nd rd pick, other than Foles and Wilson, how many QB picked in the 3rd rd have NFL success.

2019: no QB taken between 42 and 100

2018:  Rudolph #86

2017:  Kizer #52, Webb #87

2016:  Hackenberg #51, Brissett #91, Kessler #93

2015:  Grayson #75, Mannion #89

2014:  Garropollo #62

2013:  Glennon #73, Barkley #98

2012:  Osweiler #57, Wilson #75, Foles #88, Cousins #102

2011:  Mallett #74

2010:  Clausen #48, McCoy #75

potential starting QBs are always taken before #40, 2012 is a huge outlier, otherwise backup QB types with an outside chance of starting get drafted 50-75.

Did I miss something?  Has Hurts had confirmed NFL success?   You must have been watching different games than me.

Just now, 4for4EaglesNest said:

He was but went to HS in Cartersville, GA

Yeah... up in that tri-state area, right... AL, GA, TN.?

5 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Here’s another thing, if Howie knew we were heading toward an eventual tear down, why on earth did he trade for Slay and sign a 27-year-old DT to big money?

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

Slay cost them but they also had 3 comp picks, at some point you don't want too many picks (in the first five rounds or so) b/c they're likely to be claimed when waived (UDFAs are easier to get to the PS b/c other teams already decided they weren't worthy of a draft pick).

Even after you clear out the veterans, say DeSean, Jeffrey, Malilk, McLeod, with a decent draft you can field a competitive (6 win or so team).

QB:  Wentz, Hurts

RB:  Sanders, Scot

WR:  Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Watkins, Hightower

TE:  Goedert and a cast of a 100 H-back bodies

OL:  Dillard - Driscoll - Seumalo - Herbig - Mailata, if Lane and Brooks aren't healthy

DL:  Graham - Cox - Hargrave - Barnett, Sweat, Williams

LB:  Edwards - Singleton - Bradley - Taylor

CB:  Slay - anyone who can fog a mirror

S:  Wallace - Epps

5 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

I brought this same thing up the other day too him. He’ll say well they saw covid so they pivoted from a rebuilds to going in on winning the division.  It’s a stupid ass reason for doing it. You knew you had to rebuild and you gave up a 3rd and a 5th for a corner that by the time you complete the rebuild is likely out of his prime and essentially wasted those good years he had left. Add on jd you believe they trade him to get picks back he is a year older, left a lot of games, gonna need an extension in the next 2 years and likely get even less back then what you gave up. So in a rebuild which was they badly needed to do and now definitely needed to do the 3rd and 5th made way more sense. They should’ve just went all in on Byron jones or Bradbury. Then it is only money and cap space not draft picks and cap. 

It's all a lie anyway. They make some BS excuse about how a pandemic that hit in March completely changed his plan and and pretend like we all forget they were linked months before to going big on Byron Jones in FA who everyone knew would set the market for CB's. There was never a plan to rebuild.

16 minutes ago, PrinceKelby said:

You're not.

Rivers was pissed when McCoy fired him.

I stand by my statement that many knew he was close to an HC gig.

He was on my list to replace Chip after 2015.

2 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Tate cost moving back a round and a half... AND had to wait a year to get that pick back.  So, much worse return on that investment.

 

You keep focusing on 2020, like Howie didn't start digging this hole that the Eagles are in years ago through making the dumb picks, dumb contracts and dumb trades.  Desean - prior to 2019 season, Alshon restructure - prior to 2019 season, Brooks extension - Nov. 2019 (he was signed through 2021 before that extension), Johnson extension - 19 days after Brooks (he was signed through 2021 as well)... These are HUGE deals for players over 30.  Johnson is the highest paid RT in total dollars for a contract, while also being the OLDEST in the top 5.  Johnson's contract is $4+M higher than any other RT in 2021.  Drops to #4 in 2022, and then skyrockets back to #1 in 2023 at $21+M (more than $5M higher than the 2nd place).  Brandon Graham was resigned prior to the 2019 season - $17.9M for 2021.  And if they decide to move on... $17.2M... including if traded due to giving WAY too much money in signing bonus for a player of his age.  

 

Long story short... Howie was writing ridiculously BIG checks to these guys who are closer to the end of their careers than their beginning.   Paying for past performance is nice and all, but its not going to be good in the end for salary cap maintenance.   

I think you'll find that a lot of that money is fictional, that most of those players will be gone after 2022. He went all in for three years, now the party is over.

One reason teams do this is most of a contract isn't guaranteed, so you can dig out in two years, in sports with guaranteed contracts you can be buried for a decade.

12 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Here’s another thing, if Howie knew we were heading toward an eventual tear down, why on earth did he trade for Slay and sign a 27-year-old DT to big money?

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3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

Slay cost them but they also had 3 comp picks, at some point you don't want too many picks (in the first five rounds or so) b/c they're likely to be claimed when waived (UDFAs are easier to get to the PS b/c other teams already decided they weren't worthy of a draft pick).

Even after you clear out the veterans, say DeSean, Jeffrey, Malilk, McLeod, with a decent draft you can field a competitive (6 win or so team).

QB:  Wentz, Hurts

RB:  Sanders, Scot

WR:  Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Watkins, Hightower

TE:  Goedert and a cast of a 100 H-back bodies

OL:  Dillard - Driscoll - Seumalo - Herbig - Mailata, if Lane and Brooks aren't healthy

DL:  Graham - Cox - Hargrave - Barnett, Sweat, Williams

LB:  Edwards - Singleton - Bradley - Taylor

CB:  Slay - anyone who can fog a mirror

S:  Wallace - Epps

So we’re a six-win team with minimal quality youth. You have to see that’s bad. 

11 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Not when your starting QB has a history of injuries, can't win games from the trainer's table.

We won with Foles, lost with McNown, we had Vick behind McNabb.

Nah... they lost with McCown.   And when exactly did they have Vick behind McNabb?  Was that before or after they drafted Kolb in the 2nd Round?  

 

Thanks... your rewriting of history is fascinating to watch in real time though.

7 minutes ago, austinfan said:

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

Slay cost them but they also had 3 comp picks, at some point you don't want too many picks (in the first five rounds or so) b/c they're likely to be claimed when waived (UDFAs are easier to get to the PS b/c other teams already decided they weren't worthy of a draft pick).

Even after you clear out the veterans, say DeSean, Jeffrey, Malilk, McLeod, with a decent draft you can field a competitive (6 win or so team).

QB:  Wentz, Hurts

RB:  Sanders, Scot

WR:  Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Watkins, Hightower

TE:  Goedert and a cast of a 100 H-back bodies

OL:  Dillard - Driscoll - Seumalo - Herbig - Mailata, if Lane and Brooks aren't healthy

DL:  Graham - Cox - Hargrave - Barnett, Sweat, Williams

LB:  Edwards - Singleton - Bradley - Taylor

CB:  Slay - anyone who can fog a mirror

S:  Wallace - Epps

image.gif.9ae1840a09051741b452bd6132a33187.gif

Sure would be nice if our scouts were listened to and we had Jefferson and Chinn on the roster. How much better would this job look? Our front office with five future GMs would look smarter, and we’d have two young building blocks, which is one or two more than we have right now. 

4 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So we’re a six-win team with minimal quality youth. You have to see that’s bad. 

Also with minimum veterans this season, Graham, Cox, Slay, Lane and Brooks, and most will be gone the year after.

So most of that team is young and developing, and we'll have three drafts to fill it out.

That's why you bite the bullet, and go young, but you want a core of talent so young players aren't overwhelmed.

It's the difference between playing a veteran over a prospect b/c you want to win now, and playing a veteran over a prospect b/c you don't what to throw the prospect into the deep end.

10 minutes ago, austinfan said:

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

Slay cost them but they also had 3 comp picks, at some point you don't want too many picks (in the first five rounds or so) b/c they're likely to be claimed when waived (UDFAs are easier to get to the PS b/c other teams already decided they weren't worthy of a draft pick).

Even after you clear out the veterans, say DeSean, Jeffrey, Malilk, McLeod, with a decent draft you can field a competitive (6 win or so team).

QB:  Wentz, Hurts

RB:  Sanders, Scot

WR:  Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Watkins, Hightower

TE:  Goedert and a cast of a 100 H-back bodies

OL:  Dillard - Driscoll - Seumalo - Herbig - Mailata, if Lane and Brooks aren't healthy

DL:  Graham - Cox - Hargrave - Barnett, Sweat, Williams

LB:  Edwards - Singleton - Bradley - Taylor

CB:  Slay - anyone who can fog a mirror

S:  Wallace - Epps

image.gif.0da2c0ea3a05ff0cea3cdf2cc0ecce61.gif

6 minutes ago, austinfan said:

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

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So... in order to have 'competent' veterans, we need to spend BIG money at a non-premier position, that already has a ton of money dedicated there, after missing the boat by signing declining Malik Jackson to a big money contract... 

 

Just now, ManuManu said:

Sure would be nice if our scouts were listened to and we had Jefferson and Chinn on the roster. How much better would this job look? Our front office with five future GMs would look smarter, and we’d have two young building blocks, which is one or two more than we have right now. 

And if Reagor becomes the explosive WR who breaks screens for big yardage and gets behind the secondary, you'll give Jefferson a couple hundred more yards a season if Reagor widens and deepens the field for the rest of the offense, improving their production.

If Wallace becomes the start SS and Hurts a top backup and eventual starting QB, that's better than Chinn and a 4th rd QB who's never better than #3.

Time will tell.

13 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

It's all a lie anyway. They make some BS excuse about how a pandemic that hit in March completely changed his plan and and pretend like we all forget they were linked months before to going big on Byron Jones in FA who everyone knew would set the market for CB's. There was never a plan to rebuild.

Afan is in complete full 360 degree spin mode, and he's so dizzy now, that he's lost sight of his original direction.

I feel better after last night seeing a successful Philly team lol. Flyers look dam good. And competently run. 

22 minutes ago, austinfan said:

I think you'll find that a lot of that money is fictional, that most of those players will be gone after 2022. He went all in for three years, now the party is over.

One reason teams do this is most of a contract isn't guaranteed, so you can dig out in two years, in sports with guaranteed contracts you can be buried for a decade.

I think you'll find that a lot of that money is actually in signing bonuses that extends beyond the life of the contract.   I know about 'funny money' in contracts.  Howie took the idea of funny money, where the contract is big salaries into the future well beyond when you intend the player to play... but now he just pushes the signing bonuses off with voided years.  

Look at the contracts of Malik Jackson, Brandon Graham, Zach Ertz , Fletcher Cox, and Jason Kelce... All extended by roster bonuses with no salary... they are on the hook and they will swallow those dead cap hits... that's not funny money.  That's stupid money.

 

I've been studying contract structures since otc was still eaglescap.com.   I'm familiar with backloaded contracts with bogus salaries.  Howie's contract structures aren't that at all.  He's backloaded signing bonuses... by kicking the can... which is what we've been talking about being an issue for a few months while this season went from 'trying to win a division' to 'you better not win the division with this craptastic roster'.

19 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So we’re a six-win team with minimal quality youth. You have to see that’s bad. 

He has to?   No... he doesn't.  He chooses not to.

19 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So we’re a six-win team with minimal quality youth. You have to see that’s bad. 

So you mean we will compete for a division title? Lol

26 minutes ago, austinfan said:

DT didn't matter since they were dumping cap in any case, and unless you want to be the Jets you have to have some competent veterans - and I don't think the Jet model is conducive to player development.

Slay cost them but they also had 3 comp picks, at some point you don't want too many picks (in the first five rounds or so) b/c they're likely to be claimed when waived (UDFAs are easier to get to the PS b/c other teams already decided they weren't worthy of a draft pick).

Even after you clear out the veterans, say DeSean, Jeffrey, Malilk, McLeod, with a decent draft you can field a competitive (6 win or so team).

QB:  Wentz, Hurts

RB:  Sanders, Scot

WR:  Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Watkins, Hightower

TE:  Goedert and a cast of a 100 H-back bodies

OL:  Dillard - Driscoll - Seumalo - Herbig - Mailata, if Lane and Brooks aren't healthy

DL:  Graham - Cox - Hargrave - Barnett, Sweat, Williams

LB:  Edwards - Singleton - Bradley - Taylor

CB:  Slay - anyone who can fog a mirror

S:  Wallace - Epps

You can't keep Hurts if they are going with Wentz. They need to trade him and see what Wentz can do in a new system with a new coach without having to look over his shoulder.

15 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Also with minimum veterans this season, Graham, Cox, Slay, Lane and Brooks, and most will be gone the year after.

So most of that team is young and developing, and we'll have three drafts to fill it out.

That's why you bite the bullet, and go young, but you want a core of talent so young players aren't overwhelmed.

It's the difference between playing a veteran over a prospect b/c you want to win now, and playing a veteran over a prospect b/c you don't what to throw the prospect into the deep end.

I’m fine with biting the bullet, but we have almost no quality young players. And the guy making the picks and a the same guy that left this roster barren with good young players. And just because we play young players doesn’t mean they’ll be worth a darn. 

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