February 18, 20214 yr 1 minute ago, Kz! said: never seen such happy people in my life. you're the type i'd like to stay away from. and you should definitely wear a mask....cuz you ugly!
February 18, 20214 yr https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/pfizer-says-south-african-variant-could-significantly-reduce-vaccine-protection.html
February 18, 20214 yr 23 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/pfizer-says-south-african-variant-could-significantly-reduce-vaccine-protection.html
February 19, 20214 yr 8 hours ago, Kz! said: It. Just. Keeps. Getting. Better: They got the Cruz vacation story to paper over those deaths.
February 19, 20214 yr 5 minutes ago, lynched1 said: They got the Cruz vacation story to paper over those deaths. sounds like you’d enjoy this
February 19, 20214 yr https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731 Quote We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
February 19, 20214 yr 28 minutes ago, The_Omega said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731 I was told no end in sight
February 19, 20214 yr 38 minutes ago, The_Omega said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731 Seems a bit too optimistic, probably because he's under the impression that 55% of the population have natural immunity, which I strongly disagree with. He seems to blur the line between those of us who take precautions and those of us who are biologically immune, which is hardly the same thing. His reasoning that the drop is largely attributed to natural immunity is also strange given the highly restrictive nature of the lockdowns we saw in the last couple months. Besides, complacency can ebb and flow within a population, or with the same person for that matter. Is it really a surprise to see people start toeing the line as a situation worsens or affects them personally? In any case, I do agree that we'll be poised for a summer of low case numbers and deaths, but for different reasons than he implies. As for reaching "herd immunity", I don't think we'll truly see that, at the biological level at least, until fall or winter.
February 19, 20214 yr 8 minutes ago, paco said: I was told no end in sight Long dark winter. Of course, that article is just one Dr.’s opinion. I hope he’s right, but I’m not counting on it.
February 19, 20214 yr 3 minutes ago, The_Omega said: Long dark winter. Of course, that article is just one Dr.’s opinion. I hope he’s right, but I’m not counting on it. I do agree with him that the worst of it truly is behind us. Next winter should be much, much milder. We'll still see some deaths, but they'll be a fraction of what we saw a couple months ago.
February 19, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said: Seems a bit too optimistic, probably because he's under the impression that 55% of the population have natural immunity, which I strongly disagree with. He seems to blur the line between those of us who take precautions and those of us who are biologically immune, which is hardly the same thing. His reasoning that the drop is largely attributed to natural immunity is also strange given the highly restrictive nature of the lockdowns we saw in the last couple months. Besides, complacency can ebb and flow within a population, or with the same person for that matter. Is it really a surprise to see people start toeing the line as a situation worsens or affects them personally? In any case, I do agree that we'll be poised for a summer of low case numbers and deaths, but for different reasons than he implies. As for reaching "herd immunity", I don't think we'll truly see that, at the biological level at least, until fall or winter. Slowly coming to my side, by this time next year you will agree that we are doomed
February 20, 20214 yr Pennsylvania is Fing weird. Some of the suburb docs have been allotted x number of vaccines to give to patients if their choosing. Meanwhile a pretty healthy 35 year old friend of mine who is not a frontline workers just got vaccinated at the TLA on south street through Penn for some unknown reason.
February 20, 20214 yr 15 minutes ago, DEagle7 said: Pennsylvania is Fing weird. Some of the suburb docs have been allotted x number of vaccines to give to patients if their choosing. Meanwhile a pretty healthy 35 year old friend of mine who is not a frontline workers just got vaccinated at the TLA on south street through Penn for some unknown reason. PA has been horrible I know a bunch of people that have already had the vaccine younger than me and don't have an essential job like me.
February 20, 20214 yr 3 minutes ago, Bwestbrook36 said: PA has been horrible I know a bunch of people that have already had the vaccine younger than me and don't have an essential job like me. It's Fed. Best I can guess it's cause he's in the Penn health system downtown so maybe they were allotted a ton compared to other places? Cause he's not frontline and his only comorbidity is distant history of asthma. I'm happy for him but still my 60 year old diabetic smoker obese FIL still can't get over in the burbs and that does not check out at all.
February 20, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, DEagle7 said: It's Fed. Best I can guess it's cause he's in the Penn health system downtown so maybe they were allotted a ton compared to other places? Cause he's not frontline and his only comorbidity is distant history of asthma. I'm happy for him but still my 60 year old diabetic smoker obese FIL still can't get over in the burbs and that does not check out at all. It's definitely been strange... Every site I go on tells me I can't sign up because they are in Phase 1 yet... So how are people younger and less essential getting in again I ask!? Lol I'm trying to be all patient and sheet and tell people I'm just waiting my turn then some random person who I know is not at risk in any way shape or form just got the vaccine 🤬
February 20, 20214 yr 3 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said: Seems a bit too optimistic, probably because he's under the impression that 55% of the population have natural immunity, which I strongly disagree with. He seems to blur the line between those of us who take precautions and those of us who are biologically immune, which is hardly the same thing. His reasoning that the drop is largely attributed to natural immunity is also strange given the highly restrictive nature of the lockdowns we saw in the last couple months. Besides, complacency can ebb and flow within a population, or with the same person for that matter. Is it really a surprise to see people start toeing the line as a situation worsens or affects them personally? In any case, I do agree that we'll be poised for a summer of low case numbers and deaths, but for different reasons than he implies. As for reaching "herd immunity", I don't think we'll truly see that, at the biological level at least, until fall or winter. Be happy you're on the other side of Lake Huron. Vaccine rollout here has been an abomination so far. We'll be months and months behind you guys when it comes to achieving herd immunity. Do they have any idea how long immunity is supposed to last with these vaccines? It feels like if the vaccination process goes too slowly, people that were previously vaccinated could lose their immunity before others are vaccinated once. At that point you're basically just participating in one great big perpetual vaccination game.... unless that's what we're all headed for anyways and I'm just beetching about nothing.
February 20, 20214 yr 9 minutes ago, Dawkins 20 said: Be happy you're on the other side of Lake Huron. Vaccine rollout here has been an abomination so far. We'll be months and months behind you guys when it comes to achieving herd immunity. Do they have any idea how long immunity is supposed to last with these vaccines? It feels like if the vaccination process goes too slowly, people that were previously vaccinated could lose their immunity before others are vaccinated once. At that point you're basically just participating in one great big perpetual vaccination game.... unless that's what we're all headed for anyways and I'm just beetching about nothing. Yep, endless vaccinations and lockdowns, enjoy
February 20, 20214 yr 3 hours ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Slowly coming to my side, by this time next year you will agree that we are doomed No, it's the literally same thing I told you. Pandemic over by year's end.
February 20, 20214 yr 48 minutes ago, Dawkins 20 said: Be happy you're on the other side of Lake Huron. Vaccine rollout here has been an abomination so far. We'll be months and months behind you guys when it comes to achieving herd immunity. Do they have any idea how long immunity is supposed to last with these vaccines? It feels like if the vaccination process goes too slowly, people that were previously vaccinated could lose their immunity before others are vaccinated once. At that point you're basically just participating in one great big perpetual vaccination game.... unless that's what we're all headed for anyways and I'm just beetching about nothing. Yea I'm not sure what's up with the rollout there. As for length of immunity from the vaccines, we don't quite know yet obviously, but judging by the antibody titers compared to serum levels from those who recovered naturally, it's expected to be pretty durable. If natural immunity is at least around 6-12 months, then immunity from the vaccine is roughly estimated to be at least around 12 - 24 months.
February 20, 20214 yr On 2/17/2021 at 3:23 PM, Joe Shades 73 said: One year from now everyone will be just as negative as me I'm am not an epidemiologist, but I am a trained historian. Interestingly, one of my last classes for my Master's was "Epidemics in World History," which at the time seemed kind of obscure, but I'm so glad I took that course. It really put things in perspective. Two points that I take away from that are: A) Modern medicine has made pandemics much less devastating and manageable than before, not only by offering the hope of ultimately snuffing out novel viruses with vaccines, but also by validating safe-practices that allow us to live and function in a society long-term, even while the pandemic is ongoing. B) Pandemics always end, whether through natural of vaccine-induced heard immunity, evolutionary mechanisms show that microbial infestations eventually run the same course as invasive species: they compete for resources (hosts) until the limited availability of their breeding grounds becomes significant enough to control its prevalence. Even if COVID-19 is not eradicated, it will either substantially abate in prevalence and virulence to the point of either being a rare disease that can be easily isolated in populations that can be targeted for treatment, or it will become an endemic disease that, while widespread and commonly occurring, ultimately manifests itself in a predictable fashion that can be sufficiently treated with pharmaceuticals that at least reduce the incidence and severity of disease. This is a fact that follows logically from principals of evolutionary biology. Like animals, viruses exist to reproduce and pass on DNA, and they can only do this to the extent that circumstances provide the resources necessary for reproduction. When those resources become limited, the virus responds accordingly in ways that maintain the availability of hosts, which often means that it evolves in ways that allow it to exist in a kind of symbiosis with its hosts to the extent that prevalence requires a more innocuous epidemiology that allows it to propagate more freely as common illness that regularly circulates through large populations. Viruses need breeding grounds, and their populations will contract accordingly if their host reservoirs become too limited to support it. So, either way, we'll eventually come out the other side, whether through eradication, or more likely, learning to live with an virus that is widespread buy less likely to cause severe illness. This will be a long haul, but as COVID-19 specifically and coronaviruses generally circulate more widely, combined with the mitigating effect of vaccines, we will at least learn to live with this virus as a minor annoyance and with a more conscious eye to hygiene and sanitary practices.
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