I said last night this was a stupid pick because typically you look for a starter in the second.   After sobering up (hey I scored TP, Paper Towels, wine and most importantly Respado yesterday), I have tried to think about the pick analytically.  Yes Carson hasn’t finished a season in three years.  That goes into the analysis.  But also look around the league at teams that had their starting QB miss time over the last few years.   It wasn’t just the Eagles.   NO without Bridgewater when Brees went down?  Toast.  Wasteam was leading the division when Smith went down.  Luck calls it quits and look at the impact on Indy and they were luckier than wasteam that is still paying a boatload on contract guarantees.  I could go on, but that paints the analysis.   The Eagles had to negotiate Sudfeld back in the building but he is not a long term solution.  I suspect they may have talked to some of the free agent QBs and realized the cost is high.   I think they also looked at the flop rate of late round QBs.  Lauletta, a fourth for the giants sat untouched all last season on our PS.   Thorson sat and sits on Dallas’ PS untouched.  Heck Sudfeld was a wasteam late rounder.  With the Hurts pick, he has to beat out the cheaper Lauletta to make the team.  

Now I am not a huge Hurts fan.  Reality is he took two different programs into the top ten.  Loaded programs, to be sure, but he did improve each year.   He can throw and he can run.   I tend to think he is a one read and tuck it and see that as a difficulty in read progression.  We will see.

i hated the Howie presser and thought he did an awful job of explaining but I get it.  Don’t bruise Wentz into thinking the team doesn’t rely on him or think he is Bradford fragile.   Truth is, the knock on Wentz coming out of college was his history of injury.  That said, let’s not forget the injuries in Howe’s experience. Foles twice here, Bradford, Vicks and Carson.  All got injured.   Last year, Foles got hurt and traded.  I am sure that Howie’s team of data analysts can tell you the probability a starter will miss time in the next four years and also take that to a Wentz level.   We all hope Hurts never sees the field in place of Wentz over the next four years but statistically it is unlikely.   Backup QB may be the most important backup position there is. Given the choice of Hurts versus Sudfeld, I think we all would take Hurts.

If you want a quality QB it will cost either draft capital or dollars. Eagles are not in position for the latter. I was targeting Stanley in the late fourth.  Hurts is a lot more accurate of a passer.  Given Eason is still available, I would have taken him in the fourth but he may not fall that far. Not a fan of Fromm.

I like what Taylor said about having two people on the field that can throw the ball.  Hurts is better at that than Ward but if Greg is our slot or our fourth WR, that and Hurts creates wrinkles that other teams have to deal with especially if Reagor and DJax are playing outside.  

Still disappointed Howie didn’t get me my S yesterday but I like Taylor and WIL was more of an immediate need.  

There are a bunch of SS available today.   There is quality at CB in the fourth too.  I would like to see an OT drafted.  Probably another WR too.  Same with LB. Maybe a TE.  BPA.  Keep me guessing Howie.   

6 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

And meanwhile you've neglected other important positions on the team for a hoped return. 

Or you get earlier returns seeing him help the team win games. It's not just about the return on a future trade. It's also about being positioned to win when carson is inevitably hurt. Backup QB was a widely known/accepted need for this team in this draft.  They took one earlier than we expected or wanted.  But since he can use his legs,  in a season with less camps to learn maybe he's the most ready to play of all of them. 

5 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Not only that approach,  but all 3 picks are extreme athletes. Also incredibly refreshing. 

I wish a 2nd round QB wasn't part of this plan. But taking a step back and looking at their strategy its really what many of us have wanted them to do for years. 

Stop missing out on guys. Stop taking sure things instead of athletes.  They have.  They've completely pulled a 180 here in both regards. I don't know if it'll work.  They probably don't either.  But I like the idea.  I like it a lot.

 

And that's what I was referring to yesterday when I opined that this might just be the first "Howie style" draft we've seen.

20 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Focus on defense? How about they focus on freaking offense bud. Why are they determined to not give Wentz weapons? Or let the OL age out. 

Just my expectation.  We need some DBs, DEs, LBs... I think they'll look for a backup RB, maybe a WR or interior lineman. But I don't expect much more on offense.

3 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Still disappointed Howie didn’t get me my S yesterday but I like Taylor and WIL was more of an immediate need.  

There are a bunch of SS available today.   There is quality at CB in the fourth too.  I would like to see an OT drafted.  Probably another WR too.  Same with LB. Maybe a TE.  BPA.  Keep me guessing Howie.   

Yeah, I'm moving on. Not at piece with but there was certainly logic to it. Anyways, day 3... I'd also like another OT. Minimum one DB. From there on out, open to anything but QB. Will be interesting to see if they keep the trend of fast players. 

1 minute ago, TEW said:

Just my expectation.  We need some DBs, DEs, LBs... I think they'll look for a backup RB, maybe a WR or interior lineman. But I don't expect much more on offense.

They need WR and interior lineman. I agree though I doubt we will get much on offense. Because they've given us so much already. FML.

6 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Howie looks like such an idiot in so many ways. That Wentz contract now looks stupid. This draft pick looks stupid. This whole process makes no sense. 

Why did we trade for Slay?

Howie + NFL = NBA + Colangelo ???

It’s a free country, maybe Wentz gave them notice. 

Should take Clowney’s knees out ... forever.

An eye for an eye

 

2 hours ago, obedt said:

What’s your best case scenario for Hurts? Say Wentz retires in 3 years in part due to keeping his trend of annual injuries. And Hurts, after being successful filling in for Wentz takes over as QB. Is that minimal upside at best?

Absolutely

its planning for failure

2 minutes ago, TEW said:

Just my expectation.  We need some DBs, DEs, LBs... I think they'll look for a backup RB, maybe a WR or interior lineman. But I don't expect much more on offense.

Im questioning this now. If they plan to play Hurts even while Carson is healthy then hes going to be running the ball a bunch. Carries for Sanders, snaps and carries for Hurts, and Boston scott doesnt leave much room.

Id love to take an exciting player like McFarland but Im not sure how much he can see the field. Though, Hurts and he on the field at once would really stress out a D. Then Reagor/Jackson speed at WR on top of it? Ok lets get McFarland. 

19 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

I was missing him during the draft. Didn't realize how much I liked his analysis until he left

And... he would get on them for all the other crap.  He's just a football junkie.  His ideal day is likely sitting in a dark room with a pad of paper just burning through tape.  I'd love to just sit and talk with Mayock.  And would love to have him picking players for this franchise.  He's crushing it.  Ravens (again) crushing it.

 

 

I feel sorry for our veterans right now. I mean what on earth are guys like Ertz, Lane, Kelce and Cox thinking? They can't be happy. 

26 minutes ago, Rhinoddd50 said:

I have read some comments by some smart ex-football guys talking about the economics and analytics of this.

Even for all of us that disagree with this pick (for different reasons) I do think we should all be open minded enough to consider the Moneyball aspect of this move.   If Hurts ends up being a great backup, and delivers if called upon, that could mean up to $15M-20M in cap savings to the Eagles over the life of his first contract.    That is not nothing.

It's not that cut and dry obviously, but any fair minded evaluation of this selection has to consider the salary cap implications of this move.    That combined with the reality that backup QB is probably the most important backup position in all of professional sports.    The only thing I can think of that comes close is NHL goalie, maybe.   But even then backup QB is still the most valuable.

I still would not have made the Hurts pick at #53 personally. 

That's pretty much where I'm at.

I would not have made this move.

But in trying to be open minded, and looking at all of the angles, I can see the logic in  making this move.  

7 hours ago, Allhaildawk said:

I didnt change anything i expanded it to what i assumed was common sense at first.  yes, he's going to be a backup.  Yes, he's going to be a developmental QB for future return.  Yes, he's going to be a package player like Hill in NO.  If he succeeds in all of those roles, fills in successfully for wentz, adds an element to the offense, becomes sought after in trade and returns a good haul down the line all on a rookie deal so we're not paying some backup 8 mil a year, good pick.  Pardon me for assuming this would be obvious to all, given that its what every pundit is saying and what Howie said.  "QB factory."  The only people who can't follow a thread of logic are you guys.  

"He's a backup, BEST CASE is a 2d round pick in a few years." 

Uh... a backup just won a superbowl here

"But that wasn't a second round pick"

ok, so now you're talking about acquisition price?  

"This clearly means they don't feel good about wentz"

They just paid Wentz 100mil+ in contract

"but wentz got a concussion and might be rethinking his football future"

that has no bearing on the contract the TEAM paid HIM

"Do you think when they paid him that money it was with the expectation that he'd get hurt and they'd need to take a second backup?"

He's not just a backup

 

Trying to reason with you guys is like a dog chasing the tail end of a loose hose.  You have no logic in what you're saying you're just flailing around because you didnt like the pick or get your guy or whatever the case may be.  That's fine, we all feel that frustration I'm just pointing out that you're not making any sense.  Time will tell.  If he adds to the offense this year, comes in and wins 6 of 8 games his second year and preserves a playoff spot, looks great doing it and gets traded for a first and fifth he's a great pick.  If he busts out he's not.  You know, like any other draft pick.  Just calm down it's going to be ok. 

So are you saying, " Hurts is special " ?

3 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Im questioning this now. If they plan to play Hurts even while Carson is healthy then hes going to be running the ball a bunch. Carries for Sanders, snaps and carries for Hurts, and Boston scott doesnt leave much room.

Id love to take an exciting player like McFarland but Im not sure how much he can see the field. Though, Hurts and he on the field at once would really stress out a D. Then Reagor/Jackson speed at WR on top of it? Ok lets get McFarland. 

I think they'll use Hurts at RB sparingly.  He isn't going to be taking the leftover snaps from Sanders.  Maybe he gets 2 or 3 per game.

Just now, TEW said:

I think they'll use Hurts at RB sparingly.  He isn't going to be taking the leftover snaps from Sanders.  Maybe he gets 2 or 3 per game.

I don't see that happening. That kind of load on your back up QB? Taking those kinds of hits?

26 minutes ago, Rhinoddd50 said:

I have read some comments by some smart ex-football guys talking about the economics and analytics of this.

Even for all of us that disagree with this pick (for different reasons) I do think we should all be open minded enough to consider the Moneyball aspect of this move.   If Hurts ends up being a great backup, and delivers if called upon, that could mean up to $15M-20M in cap savings to the Eagles over the life of his first contract.    That is not nothing

Jalen Hurts' contract is roughly 6M or an average cap hit of 1.5M per year. 

Good backup QBs' contracts per year
- Foles: 8M
- Fitz: 6M
- Dalton: 16M...but he'll get 8 on the open market as a bridge QB.
- Tyrod Taylor: 5.5M
- Keenum: 6M
- Newton & Winston will likely get more than 5M/Y too. 

So the Eagles are saying that instead of using a 2nd rounder on a position player and paying a QB to be a backup, they'll do the inverse. If they're right about Hurts, then it "might" work. I still dislike the move because it supposes that they can't find a cheaper, viable QB option to backup Wentz. 

4 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I feel sorry for our veterans right now. I mean what on earth are guys like Ertz, Lane, Kelce and Cox thinking? They can't be happy. 

Actually, I'm sure they're thrilled. Why would they want us to draft their replacements? 

Howie has somehow made Brand and Klentak look like competent GMs

1 minute ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I feel sorry for our veterans right now. I mean what on earth are guys like Ertz, Lane, Kelce and Cox thinking? They can't be happy. 

all the talk about getting wentz some weapons....   yup. we got em, at wr, we have the oft injured alshon and djax. Greg Ward and his 24 catches, Jjaw and his less than 20, and one good rookie in Reagor.

How long into the season before Ward and Reagor are forced to start due to injuries? by the 5th game? 

Just now, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I don't see that happening. That kind of load on your back up QB? Taking those kinds of hits?

Right.

A few wrinkles here and there?  Sure.

But he's not going to be getting significant snaps as a RB.  We need a legitimate backup.

Remember when we had a QB but a lot of us woulda been happy to draftRussell Wilson as a backup in round 3?

We didnt have that sort of idea on our radar this year, but this feels a lot like that.

Not saying Hurts is gonna become that kind of player. But he is that style of player. Hes not the best passer. But he wills a team to win. He will carry an offense with his legs if he has to. But you can move him out of the pocket and let him throw bombs for guys like Jackson and Reagor to run under. Thats Wilson's style of QBing. Hes not a precision surgeon. He extends plays and throws prayers all game long. 

If  Hurts can even resemble that a little bit in limited playing time teams are going to be calling us offering a boatload trying to see if he can be their russell wilson. 

4 minutes ago, TEW said:

I think they'll use Hurts at RB sparingly.  He isn't going to be taking the leftover snaps from Sanders.  Maybe he gets 2 or 3 per game.

I wasnt implying that theyd use him as an RB at all. He will line up exclusive at QB imo, but I expect many of his plays to end up as runs. Itll take carries from the RBs. So Im not sure they need to invest there anymore outside of UDFA.

BUT, I did quickly convince myself that a packace involving Jackson, Reagor, Hurts, Sanders, and McFarland on the field would drive defenses absolutely crazy. And I want it. 

2 minutes ago, RLC said:

So the Eagles are saying that instead of using a 2nd rounder on a position player and paying a QB to be a backup, they'll do the inverse. If they're right about Hurts, then it "might" work. I still dislike the move because it supposes that they can't find a cheaper, viable QB option to backup Wentz. 

6 minutes ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I feel sorry for our veterans right now. I mean what on earth are guys like Ertz, Lane, Kelce and Cox thinking? They can't be happy. 

Actually, I'm sure they're thrilled. Why would they want us to draft their replacements? 

Take a player who can be a starter. That's what you do in the second round. 

Why would they be thrilled? They don't want to win Super Bowls then?

I have to give you silver lining guys credit.  I just can't/dont see it.  

 

2 minutes ago, What The F said:

I have to give you silver lining guys credit.  I just can't/dont see it.  

Hazelton Eagle being such a notorious "silver lining" guy around here.