37 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

The Blog has always gone off topic. I have been posting with Afan and JR (and others) on these sort of discussions for about fifteen or twenty years.  Both are very well read on history. It is never going to CVON. Religion and attacks on family we have all agreed are off limits.   Pretty much everything else within reason can be discussed here. Always has   

Good for you. I'm fine with things devolving from time to time, but despite your self imposed limits politics have always, and should always, be better served outside of TATE IMO. 

For the record, I agree almost completely with your stance on the subject (best I can tell).  This isn't about taking sides.  I just really prefer, especially now, this spot to be be an escape from that BS.  If the masses disagree fine but c'mon there's a whole section for it.

2 hours ago, BigEFly said:

Why?  Clowney is a part time player and that in not because the Eagles platoon their DEs. He doesn’t play hard every down he is in the game.  Texans moved on because of his demands.  Seattle moved on yesterday.  I suspect he doesn’t sign early enough to even get Seattle a comp pick.  No thanks. DE is a position the Eagles have invested in.  Starters were both #1 draft choices.  Back ups the Eagles used three #4 draft choices on and developed.  What hurt the Eagles pass rush last year was they were down to an overused Cox, and Rush and Hector.  So what did they do?  They grabbed a real quality starter as their premium free agent signee.  They now have Jackson backing up Cox and Ridgeway backing up Hargrave.  They still have Rush and Hector.

There isn’t space on the roster for Toohill. Grabbed for his athleticism.  He needs a lot of tuning. Chances are he never gets there.  Picks in the seventh are glorified UDFAs.  Hits are rare. 

Toohill seems like he should be a 3-4 olb

better light it up on special teams

2 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

It’s ok trey wingo yesterday said asu was in Tucson. Then corrected said Glendale when it’s in Tempe lol 

I should have known better. Years ago I installed a fiber optic to the desktop network in the federal prison in Tucson. 

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

It’s ok trey wingo yesterday said asu was in Tucson. Then corrected said Glendale when it’s in Tempe lol 

I really missed Rich Eisen.  Wingo looked very unprepared in spots.  Second year in a row I had to watch the ESPN coverage of the draft; hope it’s the last.

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

May be true, but this stuff is only a concern for draft picks.  Udfa's don't have a leg to stand on.  He's either a model citizen here or he could get cut mid-practice.  

If he ever matured and got himself right he could be a Greg ward type but with much better speed. He has wheels. However he and his "people” dictated what they wanted do. 

10 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Uh, we're talking #53, not #15. Don't exaggerate the value of that pick. I doubt this draft was so special that the pick is that much better than most years, and in most years, that pick would be a 50/50 proposition for a starter, and maybe 10% of an impact player.

You underestimate the value of the pick

badly

2 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I really missed Rich Eisen.  Wingo looked very unprepared in spots.  Second year in a row I had to watch the ESPN coverage of the draft; hope it’s the last.

Ditto. I love rich eisen. He’s much better at it. I also think he does a better job at making coaches feel more comfortable and open up. Plus he’s pretty good with the names and players cause he goes to the scouting combine. I missed him. I hate espns draft coverage.  He and mayock were an awesome together especially on day three they’d have some humor but mayock would keep it on track or get mad 

Just now, ToastJenkins said:

You underestimate the value of the pick

badly

Not really.  The #53 pick in 2015 was Jake Fisher, 2016 was Su’a Cravens, 2017 was Teez Tabor

None of those guys made any impact in the NFL 

30 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Not sure what problems the pick introduces or creates

Are you kidding? Drama around carson will start almost immediately

9 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Toohill seems like he should be a 3-4 olb

better light it up on special teams

Can he bend, and if he put on say 15 lbs can he still bend???

8 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Not really.  The #53 pick in 2015 was Jake Fisher, 2016 was Su’a Cravens, 2017 was Teez Tabor

None of those guys made any impact in the NFL 

Sheldon brown, brian dawkins...

Just now, ToastJenkins said:

Are you kidding? Drama around carson will start almost immediately

If you pay credence to the Nick Wrights, Steven A, and Skip Bayless talking heads of the world, maybe.  Wentz has never been pulled from a start for performance and Pederson isn’t going to start now.

Nobody in the locker room is going to push for a backup getting a specialized package of 2-3 plays per game to take over the starting job — any of those guys in the locker room (if there ever were any) are being shown the door

3 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Can he bend, and if he put on say 15 lbs can he still bend???

Guess thats the big question but seems like a Psquad guy for now

i am happy we got raequon williams as a udfa bc thats who i wanted us to take there

17 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Not really.  The #53 pick in 2015 was Jake Fisher, 2016 was Su’a Cravens, 2017 was Teez Tabor

None of those guys made any impact in the NFL 

Who was the #53 pick last year and in 2014?

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

Who was the #53 pick last year?

Miles Sanders

 

37 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

oh really? I thought McKinnon got hurt. I guess he got hurt from watching how good they were. 

Breida and Mostert have been in the league for awhile. They weren’t rookies... 

2 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

Breida and Mostert have been in the league for awhile. They weren’t rookies... 

mmhmmm

Cause they made the roster. Cause they were good.

So is Warren. 

Meanwhile, the vets still available, arent.

22 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

You underestimate the value of the pick

badly

Draftmetrics 2013 study:

41-66:  52.2% probability of 3 years as a starter, 27% that he'll start as a rookie. 15% chance of ever making a pro bowl.

For CBs, the odds are slightly lower, for WRs the odds are about half at that point of the draft.

My numbers (pretty dated as well) for #51-75 had a 4% of an all pro caliber player, 23% of a solid starter and 18% of a top reserve, or 45% total.

I doubt this has changed much, it's 50% or less that you land a guy who'll be at least a top reserve (i.e. starts for a couple years on a thin team, but most of his career is as a rotation guy).

And WRs are far more risky.

So we gave up a 50/50 shot at a starting player, maybe a 30% shot at a starting WR, to get QB insurance.

13 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

Who was the #53 pick last year?

Miles Sanders 2019

DaVante Adams 2014

LeSean McCoy 2009

 

At 53 we should always draft a RB it seems

43 minutes ago, TEW said:

Desean produced just fine until he got hurt.

He's going to be 34 in December. With our luck father times catches up with him this year

3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

Draftmetrics 2013 study:

41-66:  52.2% probability of 3 years as a starter, 27% that he'll start as a rookie. 15% chance of ever making a pro bowl.

For CBs, the odds are slightly lower, for WRs the odds are about half at that point of the draft.

My numbers (pretty dated as well) for #51-75 had a 4% of an all pro caliber player, 23% of a solid starter and 18% of a top reserve, or 45% total.

I doubt this has changed much, it's 50% or less that you land a guy who'll be at least a top reserve (i.e. starts for a couple years on a thin team, but most of his career is as a rotation guy).

And WRs are far more risky.

So we gave up a 50/50 shot at a starting player, maybe a 30% shot at a starting WR, to get QB insurance.

You would also have to look at what % of round 2 QB's turn into acceptable backups if we are going to call this pick QB insurance.

Just now, Mike030270 said:

He's going to be 34 in December. With our luck father times catches up with him this year

I'm gonna go ahead and say it caught up to him the year he played through 1 of 17 possible games.

27 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

You underestimate the value of the pick

badly

I would add that the estimates of 50% for starters and 10% for impactful players are not particularly informative. First, I suspect that these estimates are based on an analysis presented here several years ago (either that or Afan is pulling these out of his arse). I would like to see more contemporary data. Second, these estimates represent league-wide averages spanning a number of years. I suspect that these percentages (probabilities) vary by year - there are good draft classes and there are poor ones. I also suspect that the probabilities vary by organization. There are teams that consistently draft well and others that are consistently poor.

3 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

You would also have to look at what % of round 2 QB's turn into acceptable backups if we are going to call this pick QB insurance.

I'm gonna go ahead and say it caught up to him the year he played through 1 of 17 possible games.

Agreed.

19 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

You would also have to look at what % of round 2 QB's turn into acceptable backups if we are going to call this pick QB insurance.

I'm gonna go ahead and say it caught up to him the year he played through 1 of 17 possible games.

About 38%. 2 starters, 4 solid backups out of 16 for #36-75 (probability is actually slightly higher for the later tranche, but small sample size).

A solid backup QB has more value than an average starting WR.

Draftmetrics had 25% of a 5 year starter at QB in that range, but that would be the best case, we'd be happy with a solid backup who goes elsewhere and starts for a few years. Because if Hurts starts in Philly this decade, things went wrong with Wentz.

Juriga was the priority free agent, or at least one of them, this year. $100,000 salary and $16,000 signing bonus, all guaranteed.  We know the Eagles targeted him during the contact period.   Curious if JR has input.