44 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Not really.  The #53 pick in 2015 was Jake Fisher, 2016 was Su’a Cravens, 2017 was Teez Tabor

None of those guys made any impact in the NFL 

But who was around when that pick was made? Just because teams picked badly doesn't mean it isn't a valuable pick. Miles Sanders was #53

2 hours ago, BigEFly said:

Why?  Clowney is a part time player and that in not because the Eagles platoon their DEs. He doesn’t play hard every down he is in the game.  Texans moved on because of his demands.  Seattle moved on yesterday.  I suspect he doesn’t sign early enough to even get Seattle a comp pick.  No thanks. DE is a position the Eagles have invested in.  Starters were both #1 draft choices.  Back ups the Eagles used three #4 draft choices on and developed.  What hurt the Eagles pass rush last year was they were down to an overused Cox, and Rush and Hector.  So what did they do?  They grabbed a real quality starter as their premium free agent signee.  They now have Jackson backing up Cox and Ridgeway backing up Hargrave.  They still have Rush and Hector.

There isn’t space on the roster for Toohill. Grabbed for his athleticism.  He needs a lot of tuning. Chances are he never gets there.  Picks in the seventh are glorified UDFAs.  Hits are rare. 

OK. We see things differently, but I get where you are coming from.

15 minutes ago, austinfan said:

About 38%. 2 starters, 4 solid backups out of 16 for #36-75 (probability is actually slightly higher for the later tranche, but small sample size).

A solid backup QB has more value than an average starting WR.

Draftmetrics had 25% of a 5 year starter at QB in that range, but that would be the best case, we'd be happy with a solid backup who goes elsewhere and starts for a few years. Because if Hurts starts in Philly this decade, things went wrong with Wentz.

Well that I agree with.  Nothing pisses me off more than an average starting WR (Jordan Matthews, Reggie Brown).  

Not every WR needs to be Julio Jones.  But it's essential that every starting pass catcher in the offense be better than average.  Otherwise you are attaching your attack to an anchor.

It's also the impact on the probability of winning.

The difference between a below average, average and above average WR just isn't that much, maybe a catch per game, at most two. Especially in an offense like the Eagles where the ball is spread around to 6-7 receivers per game. Unless a WR is elite, they just don't have a big individual impact on games. That is, only the WR who forces a DC to make adjustments to shut him down has a significant impact on winning or losing. You still have to commit a defender to a below average WR.

The difference between a top backup QB and a mediocre backup QB is huge, even if it's only for 2-3 games in a season.

43 minutes ago, WentzFan11 said:

Miles Sanders 2019

DaVante Adams 2014

LeSean McCoy 2009

 

At 53 we should always draft a RB it seems

I was rooting for JK Dobbins not gonna lie. He would have been a good pick there. 

I just thought it was funny

 

50 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

mmhmmm

Cause they made the roster. Cause they were good.

So is Warren. 

Meanwhile, the vets still available, arent.

What the hell are you even talking about? How does adding a vet back hurt? If Warren beats them out, great. 
 

If Sanders gets hurt, are you really OK with our RB duo being Boston Scott and an UDFA rookie?? I’m not. 

Just now, EaglePhan1986 said:

What the hell are you even talking about? How does adding a vet back hurt? If Warren beats them out, great. 
 

If Sanders gets hurt, are you really OK with our RB duo being Boston Scott and an UDFA rookie?? I’m not. 

I said Im not interested. Dont be upset. Move on.

10 minutes ago, austinfan said:

It's also the impact on the probability of winning.

The difference between a below average, average and above average WR just isn't that much, maybe a catch per game, at most two. Especially in an offense like the Eagles where the ball is spread around to 6-7 receivers per game. Unless a WR is elite, they just don't have a big individual impact on games. That is, only the WR who forces a DC to make adjustments to shut him down has a significant impact on winning or losing. You still have to commit a defender to a below average WR.

The difference between a top backup QB and a mediocre backup QB is huge, even if it's only for 2-3 games in a season.

I think that’s where speed really makes a difference.

You could take an average to above average generic WR, and their impact on defensive game planning is probably minimal like you said. But if that average to above average WRs calling card is being a deep threat, then suddenly the impact is greater. You just can’t play them like a normal receiver. You must account for that deep threat or risk 6 points.

This is where the league is headed. If you sink and dunk your way up the field, there are simply far more ways for the offense to stall out. That’s what defensive coordinators want these days, because chances are if you’re put in lots of third down situations, they can stop you. Chances are if you run 12 plays, you’ll get a holding penalty or give up a sack.

With team speed and big plays, you’re flipping the field more consistently. You’re more likely to score before a bad play stalls out the drive. And even if you give up a holding penalty or loss of yardage on an early down, you still have the explosiveness to convert a third and long.

In this way, the sum of the parts of multiple deep threats stresses a defense and dictates how a defense plays them in a way that the old ball control styles simply do not. Add in the PI and QB hit penalties that are called today, and there’s even more opportunities for big plays when you’re pushing the ball down the field.

20 minutes ago, austinfan said:

It's also the impact on the probability of winning.

The difference between a below average, average and above average WR just isn't that much, maybe a catch per game, at most two. Especially in an offense like the Eagles where the ball is spread around to 6-7 receivers per game. Unless a WR is elite, they just don't have a big individual impact on games. That is, only the WR who forces a DC to make adjustments to shut him down has a significant impact on winning or losing. You still have to commit a defender to a below average WR.

The difference between a top backup QB and a mediocre backup QB is huge, even if it's only for 2-3 games in a season.

Data please.

4 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

I said Im not interested. Dont be upset. Move on.

That’s fine. Just say that. You don’t need to make stuff up. 

Just now, EaglePhan1986 said:

That’s fine. Just say that. You don’t need to make stuff up. 

wtf? That was the first damn thing I said before you started arguing about it. 

2 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

That’s fine. Just say that. You don’t need to make stuff up. 

 

5 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

Not interested. I like the guys we have here. 

There were few RBs I wanted in this years draft compared to recent drafts. But Warren was one of them. 

Scott is pretty well proven at this point. And if Killins is good enough to beat him out then that means Killins is looking evey bit as amazing as his youtube highlights. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

wtf? That was the first damn thing I said before you started arguing about it. 

And I explained why it’s probably not a good idea. You followed up by giving the 49ers as an example. Breida and Mostert have both been in the league for awhile. 
 

I think the Eagles need to add a vet insurance policy at RB and you’re OK with UDFA rookies providing depth. Is what it is. 

2 minutes ago, EaglePhan1986 said:

And I explained why it’s probably not a good idea. You followed up by giving the 49ers as an example. Breida and Mostert have both been in the league for awhile. 
 

I think the Eagles need to add a vet insurance policy at RB and you’re OK with UDFA rookies providing depth. Is what it is. 

Yes. You shoulda left it at that. 

Just now, HazletonEagle said:

Yes. You shoulda left it at that. 

I am. 

I skipped a bunch of pages this pm, so this comparison may have been brought up already. To me, the way Reagor jumps up to high point the ball, his herky jerky sudden movements in and out of cuts, that reminds me of a rawer version of Odell Beckham Jr. Don't think Jalen tested as well, but his play reminds me of that. Less route variation, but his movements and ability to out jump almost everyone and catch it high. 

He's not quite as stocky as Steve Smith, and not quite as smooth as Cooks. I also think there is a circus catch ability in there, but not as extreme as OBJ. 

1 hour ago, austinfan said:

Draftmetrics 2013 study:

41-66:  52.2% probability of 3 years as a starter, 27% that he'll start as a rookie. 15% chance of ever making a pro bowl.

For CBs, the odds are slightly lower, for WRs the odds are about half at that point of the draft.

My numbers (pretty dated as well) for #51-75 had a 4% of an all pro caliber player, 23% of a solid starter and 18% of a top reserve, or 45% total.

I doubt this has changed much, it's 50% or less that you land a guy who'll be at least a top reserve (i.e. starts for a couple years on a thin team, but most of his career is as a rotation guy).

And WRs are far more risky.

So we gave up a 50/50 shot at a starting player, maybe a 30% shot at a starting WR, to get QB insurance.

And ypu fail to account for his probable failure being the position with the highest failure rate

Now that the draft is over, we have no idea when the nfl starts up. That’s depressing. It’s just FAs until TC starts, whenever that is. 

6 hours ago, McMVP said:

Not really...it also depends on which team’s 1st we are talking about.  And in order to get such value, it means he did something to help us in the meantime.  

Your second sentence is actually arguing my point, so I guess my response is I agree.

Regarding your first sentence, sure, if we get a top ten pick, yeah maybe. But given the time value of picks, a mid second round pick this year is generally equivalent to a mid-1st round pick next year.

16 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

 

 

Give it up.   

You and I are in full agreement on Warren. Would not be surprised to find out he was a priority UDFA. I would have taken him over Watkins or Toohill and certainly over Bradley.  You like Killens better than I do. That said, is five RBs enough to take to camp? Only QB has that few.  We have 14 WRs and 18 DBs.  No reason to sign a free agent now.  I don’t see any we have to have and we want to see who is cut lose post draft.  No reason to lose a comp pick.  I figure we are no more than two weeks from the period when free agent signings don’t count against comp picks.  But after that period, I would like to see another RB added.  I won’t lose any sleep if the cut loose River Cracraft and sign a RB for his slot.  

2 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Give it up.   

You and I are in full agreement on Warren. Would not be surprised to find out he was a priority UDFA. I would have taken him over Watkins or Toohill and certainly over Bradley.  You like Killens better than I do. That said, is five RBs enough to take to camp? Only QB has that few.  We have 14 WRs and 18 DBs.  No reason to sign a free agent now.  I don’t see any we have to have and we want to see who is cut lose post draft.  No reason to lose a comp pick.  I figure we are no more than two weeks from the period when free agent signings don’t count against comp picks.  But after that period, I would like to see another RB added.  I won’t lose any sleep if the cut loose River Cracraft and sign a RB for his slot.  

 

Camp?   Will there be a camp?  This is going to be the weirdest offseason ever.  They are going to want to start games as close as possible to the regular season start time, but will want to wait to start offseason programs like OTAs, TC, and PS until its safe to do so... so, is it possible that they only have a 3 week TC and PS, then jump right to the real games?  (Probably with no fans present)

When does the comp pick period end again?