our next Greg Ward project.

On 4/27/2020 at 7:51 AM, austinfan said:

Draftmetrics 2013 study:

41-66:  52.2% probability of 3 years as a starter, 27% that he'll start as a rookie. 15% chance of ever making a pro bowl.

For CBs, the odds are slightly lower, for WRs the odds are about half at that point of the draft.

My numbers (pretty dated as well) for #51-75 had a 4% of an all pro caliber player, 23% of a solid starter and 18% of a top reserve, or 45% total.

I doubt this has changed much, it's 50% or less that you land a guy who'll be at least a top reserve (i.e. starts for a couple years on a thin team, but most of his career is as a rotation guy).

And WRs are far more risky.

So we gave up a 50/50 shot at a starting player, maybe a 30% shot at a starting WR, to get QB insurance.

Could have gone for a sure thing like Dobbins

 

13 minutes ago, Giddyunc said:

Absolutely. If a state wants to run more welfare style of a government, then go ahead. 

Federal government can subsidize the oil and agricultural biz, why not ?

Roseman on Reagor, and I couldn’t agree more. This was the crux of the argument of him or any other deep threat vs. Jefferson in Round 1.

"I was watching our Redskins game, our first Redskins game, and there was a play when DeSean [Jackson] caught his second touchdown where he and Nelson [Agholor] were streaking down the field — and what caught my eye, was Zach Ertz in the middle of the field holding his hands up, wide open.

And I think when you get guys like this — not only are they good players, because this guy’s a good player and we’re excited about him —, but they also help accentuate the skill sets of those other guys. Guys who work the middle of the field. Guys who are intermediate route runners."

4 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Roseman on Reagor, and I couldn’t agree more. This was the crux of the argument of him or any other deep threat vs. Jefferson in Round 1.

"I was watching our Redskins game, our first Redskins game, and there was a play when DeSean [Jackson] caught his second touchdown where he and Nelson [Agholor] were streaking down the field — and what caught my eye, was Zach Ertz in the middle of the field holding his hands up, wide open.

And I think when you get guys like this — not only are they good players, because this guy’s a good player and we’re excited about him —, but they also help accentuate the skill sets of those other guys. Guys who work the middle of the field. Guys who are intermediate route runners."

Yep completely agree. We all were excited to see Desean help out Ertz and Goedert and Agholor. Unfortunately it didn't happen but we have greater speed resilience this year.

15 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Depends on how much he wants to enjoy that money he made with his family, hunting, etc.  

 

I could see him walking away "early".  I do not see him going the Tom Brady, play forever route.  

I see him honoring his contract at least. 

50 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

Roseman on Reagor, and I couldn’t agree more. This was the crux of the argument of him or any other deep threat vs. Jefferson in Round 1.

"I was watching our Redskins game, our first Redskins game, and there was a play when DeSean [Jackson] caught his second touchdown where he and Nelson [Agholor] were streaking down the field — and what caught my eye, was Zach Ertz in the middle of the field holding his hands up, wide open.

And I think when you get guys like this — not only are they good players, because this guy’s a good player and we’re excited about him —, but they also help accentuate the skill sets of those other guys. Guys who work the middle of the field. Guys who are intermediate route runners."

Absolutely

45 minutes ago, greend said:

I see him honoring his contract at least. 

Agreed.  Unless injuries really start to build up.  I put forward the idea that he might have told them that he doesn't intend to play beyond his current contract.  He's 32 when this contract ends.  

 

It's all speculation at this point though.  Trying to make sense of the Eagles picks is tough sometimes.

As much as I’m excited for the individual big play ability of the guys we added (plus Djax coming back) I’m more excited about the cumulative effect on the entire offense removing the bottleneck in the middle of the field offers. 

3 hours ago, The guy in France said:

Could have gone for a sure thing like Dobbins

 

No such thing in the NFL draft.

4 hours ago, The guy in France said:

So each state independently could determine medicare for all by putting it on the ballot ? Why not

 

 

3 hours ago, Giddyunc said:

Absolutely. If a state wants to run more welfare style of a government, then go ahead. 

 

3 hours ago, The guy in France said:

Federal government can subsidize the oil and agricultural biz, why not ?

Take it elsewhere fellas.

1 hour ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

Yep completely agree. We all were excited to see Desean help out Ertz and Goedert and Agholor. Unfortunately it didn't happen but we have greater speed resilience this year.

Oh, it happened.  Watch the Washingteam game again.  It happened, it just wasn't sustainable because it all hinged on one guy.

8 hours ago, Br3 said:

 

I guess if u can’t get lamb, u go get the guy who was throwing to him 

Really just sucks watching Hurts highlights 90% of them are him passing the Lamb and watching him do the rest.

5 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Oh, it happened.  Watch the Washingteam game again.  It happened, it just wasn't sustainable because it all hinged on one guy.

Sorry no I do believe it happened in that one game. I just mean it didn't happen across the full season due to the injury to Desean. 

Listen I love the enthusiasm. Really do. But stop knocking Howie for his past "accomplishments" . Yes it's not a laurel on which to sit and force people to sit through bad play but you can not take it away. 

That all being said, continuing commentary on the truly decrepit contamination of the modern media, I watched one of these "former" national guys on Youtube. ( By the way, I absolutely love that it's FINALLY dawning on them and all the late night geniuses that the old model IS DEAD but that's besides the point) , now this one gentleman who partners with a Son of a very famous Giants QB spent a good 20 minutes bemoaning the fact that Aaron Rodgers making 32 million a year shouldn't have to "DEAL with" the organizations what he called it "attempts to motivate him" .  Ultimate Drama Queen spin. Get a life. And of course, it's the ultimate "California" Kid. Figures

Most of the media are morons. If you don't want to play, DON'T.  You're reading way too much into this.  

Whereas I thought Eisen was still awesome, yes it's about fan engagement, I get it but learn how to switch the channel.

If you know what the idiot box man is saying isn't "reality" nothing is forcing you to watch it   Oh and better yet, know it's hard with the "pandemic" but it has an off button as well. 

 

10 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Really just sucks watching Hurts highlights 90% of them are him passing the Lamb and watching him do the rest.

And Lamb making Hurts look way better than I would normally give the QB credit for...

One thing I did notice about a lot of the Hurts to Lamb passes was, Hurts threw a lot of tight/double coverage throws to him, and it was only the excellent pass catching ability of Lamb that made these completions rather than incomplete/INTs...again, Lamb making Hurts look a lot better (stats wise) than I believe he really is.

Basically, it boils down to whether I would prefer Reagor & Hurts (picks 21 & 53) or Lamb (picks 21 & 53 traded for #16)...I would make the trade and pick Lamb all day (especially as it kept Lamb away from Dallas...but that's not the main consideration, merely a bonus)...but I can appreciate other people's opinions on selecting Reagor & Hurts, and only time will tell. 

22 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Really just sucks watching Hurts highlights 90% of them are him passing the Lamb and watching him do the rest.

Really?  The highlights I saw made me do some more research on Charleston Rambo.  If that was your take then you should have predicted Tua as a 4th round prospect.  Even if you take Lamb off the field Hurts accounts for 2,500 yards passing and 1,300 yards running the ball.

Hurts is accurate enough as a passer (69.7%), doesn't make a ton of bad reads (4/1 TD to INT ratio), and looks slippery when running the football.  Again, I'm trying to evaluate a guy who will be the Eagles #2 QB, not the next Andrew Luck or even Baker Mayfield -- he's not going to be expected to be the face of a franchise.

 

Lamb caught passes from 2 Heisman winners and a Heisman finalist in one of the best passing systems in the entire country.  He played against mostly bad defenses with huge cushions and bad tackling.  Stop all the bishing and moaning, this guy is no Calvin Johnson/Randy Moss.

Reagor will be right there with him in terms of production this year, mark my words

2 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Really?  The highlights I saw made me do some more research on Charleston Rambo.  If that was your take then you should have predicted Tua as a 4th round prospect.  Even if you take Lamb off the field Hurts accounts for 2,500 yards passing and 1,300 yards running the ball.

Hurts is accurate enough as a passer (69.7%), doesn't make a ton of bad reads (4/1 TD to INT ratio), and looks slippery when running the football.  Again, I'm trying to evaluate a guy who will be the Eagles #2 QB, not the next Andrew Luck or even Baker Mayfield -- he's not going to be expected to be the face of a franchise.

 

Rambo looks great too.  I've watched A LOT of OU games over the past 3 years because of CeeDee Lamb.  It's hard not to notice Rambo as a legit prospect.  Another guy I have my eye on is Trey Sermon RB #4.  He just transferred to Ohio State and is a stud running back.

Just still bummed the Cowboys got CeeDee.  I'm not mad the Eagles didn't get him, I like Reagor.  I'm just furious that the Cowboys did.  It sucks seeing your favorite player going to a team you just hate.  I was a huge Jaylon Smith fan too when he was at ND.  Another player that I wish would have gone anywhere but Dallas.

I think an under the table potential bust draft pick is Davion Taylor.  He's a tweener and kind of a hybrid player who many say his claim to fame will be on ST and in packages.  In my opinion, not the best use of a 3rd round pick.  We saw how Mack Hollins turned out as a ST draft pick.  Understanding that LB and WR are totally different when I heard that he is going to excel on ST that's where my mind immediately went. 

The Eagles passed on legit true linebacker prospects in Troy Dye, Akeen Davis-Gaither and Shaquille Quarterman to take Taylor.  I know the Eagles use their LB different and I don't hate the pick, Taylor is a ridiculous athlete that fits Howie's new vision and comes off as a good dude just will be interesting to see how those 3 LB pan out compared to Taylor.

 

I'm talking bout Strong Side.

4 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Rambo looks great too.  I've watched A LOT of OU games over the past 3 years because of CeeDee Lamb.  It's hard not to notice Rambo as a legit prospect.  Another guy I have my eye on is Trey Sermon RB #4.  He just transferred to Ohio State and is a stud running back.

Just still bummed the Cowboys got CeeDee.  I'm not mad the Eagles didn't get him, I like Reagor.  I'm just furious that the Cowboys did.  It sucks seeing your favorite player going to a team you just hate.  I was a huge Jaylon Smith fan too when he was at ND.  Another player that I wish would have gone anywhere but Dallas.

I chuckled a little bit that Jerry Jones just spent $20M per year on Amari Cooper only to have Lamb drop into their laps, but it's not a bad problem to have.

DAL already had the most productive offense in the NFL last year and went 8-8 so I'm not as bummed about it as I would be if it were New England in our division and they were starved for a WR and had Lamb drop into their lap.  There is still only one ball to go around, and Dak is still the one throwing it.  I don't think adding Lamb moves them from an 8-8 team to an 11-5 team overnight.  Justin Jefferson might have fit DAL offense better from a schematic point of view.  They don't have prolific targets in the middle of the field like the Eagles already do.  My assumption is they'll use Lamb in the slot as they were using Cobb last season.

I'd be more worried about DAL if I thought they nailed the draft defensively, which I don't think they did.  Gallimore was a good pick for them, but I'm not high on Trevon Diggs at CB.  Anae was a decent pick, not great.  They're still pinning a lot of hopes on LVE to recover, and trying to get anything at all out of Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory.

3 hours ago, The guy in France said:

Federal government can subsidize the oil and agricultural biz, why not ?

Because when the government serves the people, a number of people think it is feeding from the public trough but when it services an industry or like the bailouts going on right now, businesses, the same people grumble but let it slide.  Bottom line is food stamps, the cheese program do as much to help manage the agricultural business (avoid surpluses that can drive down costs) , subsidizing crop insurance, the ethanol requirements, advisors from the departments of agriculture, even onsite UFDA (why pay your own inspectors when the government will do it for you) all subsidize a large industry.  We have the refining program that subsidizes big oil, what a lot of people don’t realize is that a lot of the studies that help develop pharmaceutical responses are conducted by the NIH. Don’t even get me started about the military/industrial complex that Eisenhower warned of (although he created a great infrastructure program that fuels road construction funding through the highway fund).  See those all help with jobs here, so that’s okay.  

Medicare for All seems like a government give away or a control of medicine.   Now medical under Medicare does schedule costs but a program on doctors’ fees has been in the works for a long time but their lobby pushes it forward with every renewal.  Ask the same folks about Medicare at 65 or Social Security and they will state they paid for it.   If they are lucky enough to own a home in a flood zone, we’ll the fact that their premiums are too low and the program is massively in debt doesn’t bother them because they "paid” for it.  Government control of healthcare costs bothers them because it is socialized medicine but doesn’t bother them in the slightest after 65, when post people see their greatest medical needs.   But having their milk and cheese prices high to sustain the dairy farmers, their oil prices inflated to subsidize building refineries, their municipal projects in the Commonwealth require "prevailing wage”, those don’t bother the same people because they already exist and are not lobbied against and Advertised against on TV.

Now I think people need to realize that Medicare for All has to be incremental it it’s adoption because of the impact on job loss.  Pharmaceutical sales reps wouldn’t be needed as much, insurance industry employees will decrease, Medicare Advantage options may disappear (that’s how medical coverage for over a third of seniors is delivered and growing - turns out we like our options).  Decrease in billing and collection jobs in hospitals.  Would have to figure out how to subsidize rural healthcare because a lot of regional health facilities are barely viable today and Medicare schedules will drive them under.  It’s not as easy as Bernie tries to paint it.

The most reviled part of the Affordable Care Act was the individual insurance mandate but it makes the most sense.  In insurance, it is referred to as the law of large numbers.  Think of it this way, if 100 people get together and agree to insure a home for fire and a house burns down, the cost is spread from one person to a hundred.   Now if the only people that require flood insurance are those whose houses are in flood plains then people, like me as I sit at the top of a hill, whose houses won’t flood, don’t buy the insurance  When a flood happens, unlike most fires, it is widespread.  So in the fire example above all 100:homes flood.  The risk is not spread.  So that is why insurers don’t cover flood.  That is why the government does and holds premiums down artificially.  Same thing happens with crop insurance except the government subsidizes the premium instead.  Now how,does that tie to the Affordable Care Act?  It forced insurers to take the limit (lifetime payout) off of policies.  It forced insurers to accept pre-existing conditions.  In other words you had to insure against something that already was going to be a loss.  So it requires that for insurance to be affordable, the healthy people that will only need it when faced with a fortuitous medical condition purchase insurance.  The law,of large numbers   With Medicare we already have that   We pay premiums our whole employed life in the form of Medicare taxes plus in retirement, those copays and premiums Bernie wants to erase.  That is everybody.  Don’t make it until you are 65? You still helped spread the risk.  Now as with any government run insurance, we don’t raise premiums (taxes too) to meet the needs for future payouts   That’s why we hear about the Medicare fund running out of money  Medicare for All requires coverage for everybody but it would be paid as taxes  (large numbers).  Hopefully enough taxes to fund the losses    That’s the rub   Every state has an insurance department  Many require the insurers to file rates  That’s what governs what premium you pay  The insurance departments want to make sure enough premium is paid to insure that when the losses come in, the insurer has enough money reserved to pay the losses.  The Affordable Care Act did that with the individual insurance mandate but also limited how much profit the insurer could make  Medicare for All likely won’t have that protection   Nothing politicians love more than promising to lower taxes while providing more services whose prices keep increasing   

 

 

And if you sit around wondering what everybody means when they toss a dime store slogan at you,  THIS is what they mean. 

One thing to make silly entertainment, another to make something truly "worth" watching. 

8 hours ago, Alphagrand said:

How many of the 32 could go in and win 3 playoff games like Foles had to do in 2017, or win in CHI and play well enough to win in NO in 2018 like Foles did, or win the WC game against SEA last year like McCown couldn’t?

I don’t see how anyone can try to argue that the Eagles don’t need a high caliber #2 — Sudfeld ain’t it.

So it wasn't necessarily from you, but after the SEA loss, there was a wave of Wentz support and rationale that he's not injury prone.  He got speared in the back of the head, anyone would have been concussed, he played 16 games last year, etc.

So while that wasn't necessarily you, we still can't have it both ways.

Either Hurts was a wise pick because Wentz ranks low on the list of franchise QBs due to reliability problems...or Hurts was a frivolous pick.  

It's one or the other.  I don't know which it is, but no one can pretend to endorse the positive version of both debates.