8 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

If they pursue it. I also don’t see how Howie could possibly make the argument that Graham needs to pay back any of his bonus based on dummy years added to the contract. Those last three years were always set to automatically void, it’s not like Graham would be retiring with the team expecting him to honor those years.

True.

If Graham retires, and we ignore dummy years, he would still have to pay back roughly 8M. 

why would Graham do that?

and to be fair to Howie, he said they WANT to be a QB factory - not that we are one already

1 minute ago, ToastJenkins said:

why would Graham do that?

and to be fair to Howie, he said they WANT to be a QB factory - not that we are one already

Yeah, I think people are blowing that comment out of proportion. If they said they wanted to be a tackle factory after drafting Dillard no one would care. 

1 hour ago, John_C said:

Summary

 

To summarize this, as succinctly as I can:

• The Eagles made a monumental (and obvious) mistake in drafting Jalen Hurts.
  DrP - 100% agree!
• The draft pick indicates that the Eagles are not committed to Carson Wentz, even after giving him a massive guaranteed money extension
  DrP - I don't agree.  I think the Eagles made the pick for the exact reason that they say they made it.  Essentially they are saying "you always need to be reloading at the QB position because you never know with regard to injuries, etc.".  Sort of like when someone says "you can't have enough CBs".
• Not being committed to your franchise quarterback is an insane position for a team to take, and will deteriorate quickly
  DrP - The Eagles don't view this as not being committed.  The question is whether Carson and/or the locker room believes it or not.  Clearly the media will run with it and it will be up to the coaching staff to convince the players otherwise.
• Like it or not, their choice of Hurts will now lead to many questions, of Carson, Jalen, the coaches, and the team, all of which will be negative
• This selection, like it or not, fractures their relationship with Carson as the intentions are obvious, regardless of what words are exchanged and statements are made by all parties, including Carson
  DrP - I don't agree.  It certainly has a BIG risk in doing so but it isn't a foregone conclusion.  They made it work with Foles the SB hero for one year so I think they might be able to pull it off.
• Because Carson is in place now with serious long term dollars committed, outside of a major injury, there is a decent chance they will not have the time or opportunity to develop Jalen appropriately.  Best scenario for Jalen is Carson gets hurt again soon.  If Carson plays well, Jalen's development will be limited at best, sub-optimal at worst (for him)
• If Carson continues to play well enough, and remains healthy, Jalen's role and development path are unclear; something he is unlikely to be happy about (just look at his college history for an example of how he may handle)
• Jalen does not have the same skill set (esp speed) as Taysom Hill, and is unlikely to flourish in a similar role; as the coaches have said, he is coming in as a quarterback
• You do not draft "gadget" players in the second round; for reference, Taysom Hill was an UDFA
• The concept of putting "two guys on the field that can throw the ball" is not new, and while the Eagles staff may have new, innovative ideas on how to implement this, they are unlikely to amount to more than "gadget" plays that have a nominal impact on the teams success.  At worst, the concepts may not work at all, and may result in sub-optimal game outcomes that could have been avoided.
• The Eagles could not afford to take a pick for an "insurance policy" at quarterback when they have so many other needs
• The Eagles passed on a likely starter in a deep draft to take a "backup" quarterback
• The Eagles were much better served procuring another veteran backup, if in fact Sudfeld is not up to the task
• The cap implications and "value" of saving money on a backup quarterback have been grossly overstated
• While the Eagles were drafting backup quarterbacks and "fast" players, the rest of the NFC east had outstanding drafts and addressed needs
• The General manager is talking about Quarterback Factories and "taking players that have the most value;" clear indications he did not learn anything on his hiatus, or has quickly reverted back to who he is; senior, competent personnel leadership is needed
• Regardless of who the GM and/or coaches wanted, the owner should have been able to see what was happening and prevent this disaster.  The fact that he did not prevent the high level strategic mistake indicates that he needs to delegate this important responsibility to someone else.  Someone like a Joe Banner, who came out and said he would not have made the pick.  He needs help as he should have seen this and squashed it, as 31 other NFL owners would have done.

 

I totally hated the pick but I don't agree with everything you say in this post.  I've put some comments inline above.  In a nutshell, I completely agree with your analysis with the exception of the answer to the question as to why the Eagles made the pick.

The risk of having all the turmoil is just too great and the need at other positions to real for this pick to be made.  100% agree there.  I just don't think the Eagles brass saw it that way and I don't think they have the slightest concern with Wentz.  They simply believe that a 2nd excellent QB prospect is required as a mid to longer term investment (I do not) which is where the "factory" comment comes from.  I think this is more of an indication as to where they have Sudfeld.  I agree with you they should have gone after a vet though that would have eaten cap which they can now use instead.

The roster is always a puzzle but I would have preferred a different piece at #2, say BPA but not at QB.  A DE or OT would have been nice for example.

30 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

 

McNabb
Feeley (turned into a high second round pick)
Kolb (turned into high second round pick and a CB)
Vick (much better QB here than in Atlanta, there he was just an athlete)
Foles (only seems to find the magic with the Eagles and even then its hit or miss)
Wentz

 

Now, are they Mark Brunell who left GB and turned into a Pro Bowler?  No.  But, in terms of what the team needed... they worked out. 
Feeley went 4-1 in 5 starts in 2002 to maintain HFA, and they flipped him for a nice pick.
Kolb - filled in ok for McNabb when injured.  Showed enough as a starter before his concussion to get AZ interested to repay the pick used to draft him, plus interest (DRC).
Vick - Put on an MVP like campaign in relief of Kolb.  And was a dropped Riley Cooper fade pattern from getting this team a playoff win.
Foles - 27/2 stretch... magical SB run in NFCCG and SB.  Worth everything we ever spent on him.
Wentz - high investment, but is what he was billed to be.  Just a question of durability.

 

 

Throw everyone before Foles out the window as you can't count completely different staffs as "developing QB's"now, as if Howie or Lurie has much of anything to do with it, as they are the only constants through that list.

5 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

why would Graham do that?

1) Playing football is really hard on the body and he has enough money to retire comfortably. Lots of players have walked away from more.

2) The Eagles can hire him as a consultant, coach, etc. after he retires. It's not hard to give him that money in other capacities that provide us more cap room and he keeps his money.

26 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

His numbers were very comparable to both Murray and Mayfield.  Comp % very close, yards passing a little down from Mayfield, but Mayfield didn't run much at all, Hurts went 32/8 where both Murray and Mayfield were 42/7 and 43/6

Thank you.

11 minutes ago, PrinceKelby said:

Throw everyone before Foles out the window as you can't count completely different staff as "developing QB's" as if Howie or Lurie has much of anything to do with it as they are the only constants through that list.

Also, have to include the myriad of guys who haven't developed. Suds, Thorson, etc.

The biggest issue with Hurts and his fit here is that he's played behind very good OL's with weapons and yet still averaged over 3 seconds to get the ball out.

You know how many sacks our DL would have if QBs averaged closed to that against us? Lots and lots and lots.

Sure, some of that time is due to him running around extending plays, but the slowest guy in the NFL last year was around 2.75.

Some of it is also due to his "wind up" when he throws.

He fixes those things, great. Those things are much harder to correct on QBs at this stage than other things though.

 

2 minutes ago, PrinceKelby said:

Also, have to include the myriad of guys who haven't developed. Suds, Thorson, etc.

I think this plays into using the second round pick.  Sudfeld has apparently told the Eagles he wants to go compete for a #1 QB job, so after this season he’s out regardless.  I’ve never seen anything from Sudfeld to make me believe he can be a #1 QB, but that’s his option.  Thorson as a 5th round pick must have been horrid to get cut after training camp.

The Eagles could have waited to choose a QB like Jake Fromm or Jacob Eason, but they obviously didn’t grade these guys highly as developmental QBs, even though Fromm was a 3-year starter at Georgia.  They simply evaluate Hurts as a much better prospect, and I’m starting to hear commentators focusing on Hurts having a very strong skill set to run an RPO offense which is largely what Pederson developed for Foles.

I’m completely against the idea of bringing in a veteran QB based solely on the opinion that bringing in any of Flacco, Dalton, Newton or Winston is taking a step backwards.  All of the first 3 guys aren’t close to as good as they once were, and Winston is the opposite of what a team should look for in a #2 QB.

Hurts wouldn’t have been the pick I made, but if he does what McCown couldn’t do last year and gets the Eagles past SEA (either with his arm or legs, couldn’t care less) or wins a couple regular season games if needed, then the pick pays dividends IMO

7 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I think this plays into using the second round pick.  Sudfeld has apparently told the Eagles he wants to go compete for a #1 QB job, so after this season he’s out regardless.  I’ve never seen anything from Sudfeld to make me believe he can be a #1 QB, but that’s his option.  Thorson as a 5th round pick must have been horrid to get cut after training camp.

The Eagles could have waited to choose a QB like Jake Fromm or Jacob Eason, but they obviously didn’t grade these guys highly as developmental QBs, even though Fromm was a 3-year starter at Georgia.  They simply evaluate Hurts as a much better prospect, and I’m starting to hear commentators focusing on Hurts having a very strong skill set to run an RPO offense which is largely what Pederson developed for Foles.

I’m completely against the idea of bringing in a veteran QB based solely on the opinion that bringing in any of Flacco, Dalton, Newton or Winston is taking a step backwards.  All of the first 3 guys aren’t close to as good as they once were, and Winston is the opposite of what a team should look for in a #2 QB.

Hurts wouldn’t have been the pick I made, but if he does what McCown couldn’t do last year and gets the Eagles past SEA (either with his arm or legs, couldn’t care less) or wins a couple regular season games if needed, then the pick pays dividends IMO

The bolded doesn't even make sense. He had that opportunity this year and came back for a measly $2M. 

9 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

 

I totally hated the pick but I don't agree with everything you say in this post.  I've put some comments inline above.  In a nutshell, I completely agree with your analysis with the exception of the answer to the question as to why the Eagles made the pick.

The risk of having all the turmoil is just too great and the need at other positions to real for this pick to be made.  100% agree there.  I just don't think the Eagles brass saw it that way and I don't think they have the slightest concern with Wentz.  They simply believe that a 2nd excellent QB prospect is required as a mid to longer term investment (I do not) which is where the "factory" comment comes from.  I think this is more of an indication as to where they have Sudfeld.  I agree with you they should have gone after a vet though that would have eaten cap which they can now use instead.

The roster is always a puzzle but I would have preferred a different piece at #2, say BPA but not at QB.  A DE or OT would have been nice for example.

I don't think there's really going to be turmoil with this pick unless Wentz looks bad (which isn't impossible but is unlikely) or Hurts comes in an plays really well over like a 6 to 10 game stretch. Unless the latter happens, I see no way the Eagles will move on from Wentz in the next 3 to 5 seasons. Even if the latter happens, I think the Eagles are more likely to trade Hurts (like NE with QB's in the past) than to hang onto Hurts and trade Wentz.  What this says about Wentz is that they think there's a good chance he misses games due to injuries.  I don't know if this is the team making this decision based primarily on Wentz vs. league averages for missed games. A significant percentage of starting QB's miss games and significant snaps in games during the course of the season. You can't ignore though that Wentz has sustained significant injuries the last 3 seasons at crucial times.  It probably weighs heavily in the decision making.  In that sense, I think they believe the back up position is very important to the team.  The injury concern  is where Wentz has and will feel the most pressure.  

Wentz would have the same concerns about the injury label even if the team had not drafted Hurts.  Does having that pressure change his play? I am not sure that it will.  Ultimately, Wentz seems willing to hold onto the ball to make a play.  With better weapons, it would seem like he has a chance to make more.  I mean what would last season had looked  like if Agholor or JJaw didn't have key drops in early games.  I think Wentz will continue to move in the pocket to extend plays. He will continue to get questions about injuries and how he can avoid them.  It was a topic the last 2 seasons.  It will continue to be a topic.   

If he misses time and Hurts comes in as the backup, could the Eagles have a controversy? I really don't think that will be the case.  Hurt just isn't as talented as Wentz.  He may become a competent starter.  He just does not have Wentz's arm.  Arguably bringing a QB like Cam Newton or Jameis Winston creates more potential controversy than a rookie 2nd round pick.  If Cam is healed or Winston's Lasik surgery worked, they could be good QB's running an efficient offense.  Hurts doesn't have their pedigree or potential.  The offense will seem limited with him.  

This is my problem with the pick.  Howie could have used it on a player that would have improved the roster in a way to make Wentz's job easier.  In that sense, using a 2nd round pick on a back up is a wasted pick.  

17 minutes ago, PrinceKelby said:

The biggest issue with Hurts and his fit here is that he's played behind very good OL's with weapons and yet still averaged over 3 seconds to get the ball out.

You know how many sacks our DL would have if QBs averaged closed to that against us? Lots and lots and lots.

Sure, some of that time is due to him running around extending plays, but the slowest guy in the NFL last year was around 2.75.

Some of it is also due to his "wind up" when he throws.

He fixes those things, great. Those things are much harder to correct on QBs at this stage than other things though.

That is a variable stat.  If you play behind a really good OL and they give you good time, then I'm not going to fault a QB for taking it.  

Brady and Manning used to sit in the pocket forever, flatfooted, just waiting for someone to peel open.  Of course...no one in league history would identify the open guy faster than those two.  But they'd take the time if they had it.  So the stat can be a little unreliable.  

25 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

 

Honestly you could say Treyvon Hester, Bruce Hector, Hasaan Ridgeway or Anthony Rush and to me they are all the same JAG 4th DT.  

I like Rush but R Williams is my darkhorse to make the roster

6 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

If he misses time and Hurts comes in as the backup, could the Eagles have a controversy? I really don't think that will be the case.  Hurt just isn't as talented as Wentz.  He may become a competent starter.  He just does not have Wentz's arm.  Arguably bringing a QB like Cam Newton or Jameis Winston creates more potential controversy than a rookie 2nd round pick. 

Bringing in a vet to backup a franchise QB doesn't create any initial controversy whatsoever as it is standard procedure and wouldn't be an immediate media talking point. That only comes down the line should the franchise guy play really poorly OR if the vet backup comes in and rallies the team for a couple of wins

The problem with the Hurts scenario is that it creates an immediate media issue that doesn't go away even it Wentz plays well.  Not right away anyway.

2 hours ago, John_C said:

I waited all week to write anything further on the blog.  I've seen the media blitz by Howie Roseman earlier this week, attempting to justify the Hurts pick.  Admitting that is was "uncomfortable" to speak with Carson, and acknowledging that the vast majority of fans aren't happy, are good signs.  Perhaps they indicate a chance, albeit small, for some understanding of the mistakes made here.  Though, it is too late to correct, and there are various other signs of serious concern.  The comments around "accumulating value," " Quarterback Factory" and others are just beyond the scope of anything I thought the Eagles brass would have been capable of after the last few years. 

 

I'm just going to document here what I think the Eagles did, how big of a mistake it was, and why.  

 

Hurts Pick - A Deeper Dive

 

This post will look at the overall implications and impact of the pick.  This is NOT A POST for those that are searching for reasons to justify the pick of Jalen Hurts in the second round and rationalize it.  I would encourage anyone who would rather take that approach to not read any further.  

 

I've previously shared several articles analyzing the pick, and specifically refuting the various claims made by the Eagles on this pick.  This is a good summary of that, and I won't waste time restating these points:

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2020/4/26/21236656/philadelphia-eagles-2020-draft-jalen-hurts-howie-roseman-excuses-quarterback-oklahoma-carson-wentz

 

Instead of rehashing these same obvious points, I will try to document what I haven't seen *fully* explained yet.  Again, I expect much of what I'll say here to be obvious to many of you, as long as you aren't in the mode of trying to rationalize.

 

How to Undermine Your Franchise Quarterback

 

When a team is fortunate enough to have a franchise quarterback, success is dependent on building around that quarterback.  Commitment to supporting the franchise quarterback and facilitating his success and the team's success must be ABSOLUTE.  Margins are too small, resources too limited, and information too ubiquitous to do otherwise.  You have very few dumb people running NFL teams these days.  You cannot rely on being able to outsmart and out-plan the opposition.  You have to use everything at your disposal in the best possible way, and get a little lucky as well.  Analytics only further level the playing field.  You cannot, under any circumstances, afford to HEDGE against your franchise quarterback (while in his prime) somehow NOT being your franchise quarterback.  Resource constraints don't allow this, and furthermore, any type of hedge will manifest itself into various other issues, all of which are detrimental to the team.  This is why it is not done.

 

The best way to undermine your team and your franchise quarterback is to draft ANOTHER quarterback high in the draft.  This is a risk, a cost, to be weighed and debated seriously at the appropriate point in your quarterback's career, or after the circumstances have dictated that such a consideration is, unfortunately, necessary.  It's a tough call.  Instead of adding starters and key players to invest in your quarterback, replace departed or declining talent, and get ahead of your competitors, you take a guy who, if everything plays out favorably and luck is on your side, will not even PLAY.  Furthermore, you show the world, and especially your team, that you do not TRUST your quarterback, and you may want a DIFFERENT quarterback.

 

What team would do that?  None, right?  Well, until exactly one week ago, this had never been done before.  Never in history has a team had a franchise quarterback, in his twenties, entering a franchise level compensation 4 year deal, taken a quarterback in the 2nd round.  That would go against everything and anything the team stands for at that point in time.  Who would do that?  No one would.  No owner would allow it!  Even owners that do not "mettle" will step in when they see something happening that presents undue risk or falls short in basic strategic vision.  To be honest, I am shocked that Lurie did not step in here, as I thought he had learned enough over time to be that kind of owner.  

 

When the proposition was raised to Lurie, the owner and CEO of a multi-billion dollar organization, this is how I would have expected him to react.  "What?  Wait, did we not just commit the largest amount of guaranteed money in NFL history to our current quarterback, who is young, entering his prime and talented, and with your full buy in and recommendation?  And now you are in my office, not even a year later, telling me you want a different quarterback high in the draft?  I need to understand this, who wants this and why?"  (I need to understand the thought process and decision making, so I can identify who specifically I need to fire and replace ASAP.)

 

Now that this has actually happened, many/most of the team's players have serious questions.  Whether they get asked, or not, the questions are now there.  Why did they do this?  Is something wrong with Carson?  If they invested that high of a draft pick at the expense of other good players in this new kid, they expect something out of him, right?  They must not trust Carson.  Is Carson hurt again?  Is he too injury prone?  Do they think this kid is a better prospect than Carson?  Is the plan for him to take over in the next year or two?  I guess they thought this was more important than adding a key weapon, a key defensive player, or someone that could come in and help us win with Carson at QB.  I'm a veteran trying to win another super bowl.  How does this help me this year?  Next year?

 

For those who would say "it's just pick 53," or "it is just a second round pick," once you understand that they compared the player they took to Russell Wilson, and to Lamar Jackson, this argument falls apart quickly.  When you compare a quarterback you just took in the draft the current NFL MVP QB as well as the likely runner up, are you talking about a player that is being selected to be a backup?

 

I see someone has at least written about the obvious point, that this confirms the Eagles doubts about Wentz (despite the recent long term financial commitment):

https://94wip.radio.com/blogs/joe-giglio/philadelphia-eagles-unsure-about-carson-wentz-jalen-hurts

 

More recently, Shiel Kapadia at the Athletic has come around to this analysis, although he remains confused as to the Eagles story and response continues to evolve:

https://theathletic.com/1780643/2020/04/29/kapadia-what-the-jalen-hurts-pick-says-about-how-the-eagles-view-carson-wentz/

 

"Carson, what is your reaction to the Eagles taking Hurts?  Did they talk to you about it?  Do you see yourself as a mentor?  Will you teach him what you know?  Does having a young, highly drafted QB behind you make you think that maybe the team wants to go in a new direction?  What about the fact that they passed on some very good prospects to take him?"

 

"Jalen, when did you think the Eagles had serious interest in you?  Have they told you that they see you as a starter?  Were you disappointed to come to a team with a young starting QB who just received a big contract?  Do you see yourself as a starter?  What are they going to do to develop you here, did you talk about how many reps you will get and sharing the load with Carson?"

 

How to Call Your Quarterback's Leadership Into Question

 

These last couple of years have been somewhat unique for Carson Wentz as a QB, and therefore, leader of the Eagles.  He was drafted to be the quarterback of a team that was blessed with some very good players and several vocal veteran leaders.  Malcolm Jenkins, Jason Peters, Brandon Graham, Lane Johnson, Fletcher Cox among others all have significant voices.  Last year, on All or Nothing, we wintessed how Wentz came into his own, leading the team and a rag-tag group of backups (on offense) to the playoffs, against all odds.  Two of the major team leaders, arguably the biggest, in Jenkins and Peters, are gone, paving the way for this to truly become Wentz's team.

 

The best way to undermine your quarterback as a leader, and his standing with the team, is to not ONLY select a new quarterback early in the draft, but to talk about what a "great locker room guy" and "great teammate" the new quarterback will be, and how you look forward to his contributions in this area.  If you choose to talk about a ROOKIE BACKUP QUARTERBACK having a big impact on your CULTURE, you have nailed it.  Wait, we are drafting another quarterback to come in here and change our culture?  What about our culture needs to change and why?  I guess the new guy is the guy now?

 

The Quarterback Factory

 

This characterization will go down in history, along with comments like the "Gold Standard," as unbelievably arrogant and completely lacking in self awareness.  First of all, why would a team ever admit to desiring to be in the business of "producing" quarterbacks, like at a factory?  Furthermore, what about the current Eagles front office and coaching staff is indicative of Quarterback development, outside of Carson Wentz?  We all thought that the GM had learned so much, especially on his year off tour, and the major lesson was it was about building a TEAM and not just compiling talent.  What is a Quarterback Factory?  Is it part of building a championship team?  Is having 3 starting quarterbacks better than having one?  What was that famous saying again?

 

Is a quarterback controversy good for a team?  What happens when you invest in quarterback at the expense of other positions?  How many quarterbacks are on the field at once?  How many reps do they get in practice?

 

What about becoming a Quarterback Factory to sell the quarterbacks for draft picks?  Does this happen often?  Outside of the AJ Feeley example from long ago, when have the Eagles done this?  What about other teams?

 

What About Having "2 guys on the field who can throw the ball?"

 

The Eagles staff loves to be "innovative" on offense.  This new idea, as discussed by Press Taylor and now referenced by others, is getting "two guys on the field that can throw the ball."  So what does that mean?  The Eagles are going to run a significant number of plays with two quarterbacks on the field?

How is that going to work?  Carson under center, Hurts in the backfield?  Hurts out wide, motion into the backfield?  Carson lateral to Hurts, who throws downfield?  Hurts in the pistol.  Ohhhhh... who is going to throw the ball?  You have no idea, man!  How do you stop it??!   There is a reason that on NFL passing plays, the ball comes out in less than 3 seconds.  To forecast this change in the game is to suggest that some kind of trickery or misdirection will lead to having a second "quarterback" can touch the ball and then get a pass off is highly optimistic, at best.  Something less than that, at worst.

 

Great teams may implement a few **** plays, and may call a few during a season.  They don't attempt to re-invent the offense around a concept that is loaded with additional risks and flaws.  Especially in today's practice limited world, and more so in the current environment, where no one knows when teams will be allowed to practice again.  If you don't have faith in your franchise quarterback to be the one throwing the ball, then by all means, take a new quarterback in the draft.

 

Taysom Hill on Steroids

 

The Eagles really took Hurts because they have been observing the effectiveness of the Taysom Hill plays run by the Saints.  They want their own Taysom Hill, only better, and will implement a new package for him that will be Taysom Hill on steroids.

 

There are a few major differences between Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts that are worth remembering:

• Taysom was an undrafted free agent, and was willing to do anything to contribute and make a team.  He caught on with the Saints and they got creative with his abilities.  He was not a draftable/viable NFL QB prospect.  He was not a second round pick investment.
• Taysom Hill ran a 4.4 at the combine. He played special teams, receiver, and running back.  Jalen Hurts is a good athlete, but not nearly the same.  He ran a 4.6 - fast, not *that* fast.  He does not have the same skill set as Taysom.  Some will say he throws better than Taysom, that may be true, we will see.  But he is not the same kind of "weapon."  I would agree he is more of a quarterback, and he can run the ball some.
• Jalen has different goals and expectations than Taysom.  He expected to be drafted, was drafted high, and wants to be a starting quarterback.  His actions have demonstrated this.

 

Jalen is not Taysom.  Jalen has a different skill set and expectations than Taysom.  The story that came out about Jalen lining up as a "straight RB" is also interesting.  Do we believe that is correct?  There was a kid from Ohio State available at 53, may have been a pretty good addition to the backfield.  How would Jalen react to becoming a "straight RB?"  We know he is not going to line up at WR, in the slot, or do many of the things that Hill does.  He will be able to run the same type of option plays from the QB position.  Which everyone on the field will know is coming.

 

What kind of team takes a player for a gadget role in the second round, when they have so many other needs?  Not a smart team.  That kind of irresponsible drafting is far outside of anything that any GM who knows how to build a team would do, under any circumstance.  These are the kind of things you do later in the draft.

 

How Does This Work for Hurts?

 

Hurts has been drafted by a team with a 27 year old franchise quarterback, entering a new contract.  His team has indicated a desire to implement a Taysom Hill package for him (on steroids), and wants to bring him into their Quarterback Factory.  How excited is this guy right now?

 

As a second round pick, would he be content to become a gadget player?  Or will he be worried at all about realizing his dream to become a starting NFL quarterback?  How many reps will he get as a quarterback?  Will he be supportive of a Taysom Hill type role?  How is he going to be developed?  What is his path to becoming a starting quarterback?  Do you think that he will be content, for the next several years, if he is getting limited reps, maybe some option type plays, and/or is typecast as a gadget player?

 

How did he react when he lost his job at Alabama?  Did he stay put, and was he content to come in and run some option plays to give Tua a breather?  Or did he switch programs to where he could have the most success as a quarterback?

 

Long Term Value of Highly Drafted Backup QB

 

Teams that have franchise quarterbacks don't draft other quarterbacks high to be backups, especially because the draft actually is not "all about value, and taking players that have the most value."  It should be about building the best possible TEAM, but again, that concept was most certainly NOT learned, despite prior assurances to the contrary.  

 

Good teams with franchise quarterbacks don't take these other quarterbacks high in the draft for "value" because:

1. they don't have time or reps to develop them and maximize their "value"
2. if they don't play, they can't and don't "build more value" as in for a potential trade
3. the relative value to taking a player at another position/opportunity cost of doing so when your team is already competitive and needs all available resources
4. the time value of the picks is too important to those with the privilege of being in charge at the current time
5. it is rare, very rare. that a team trades a quarterback for "higher" draft return than the initial pick(s) used

The "financial impact" of taking a high draft pick, let's say a second round pick, in cap savings has been grossly overstated and is being used as part of a litany of excuses for the pick.  Yes, the Eagles have overspent on backups, especially in the recent past.  League wide, the cost of a reasonable backup in most instances is not substantially more than the second round pick; certainly the savings relative to the overall cap are nominal, at best.  Even in instances where the team is inclined to spend more than usual on a backup, the viability of the veteran backup and likelihood of success with the veteran backup is significantly greater the young player in the vast majority of situations.

 

Who Should Be the Backup Quarterback?

 

If Carson were to go down again at some point this season, what quarterback would give the Eagles the better chance of winning?  Would it be Jalen Hurts, with whatever assumptions you can make about his development, usage, and reps, along with his particular skill set and upside?  Would it be Nate Sudfeld?  Or a veteran quarterback that was or is available?

 

When a team is a true contender, which prior to this disastrous decision, I had expected the Eagles to be, I would argue that in ALL cases, you want to have a veteran quarterback on your team as your backup.  Perhaps Nate Sudfeld, with his several years of experience in the system, and some flashes of competence in the past, could be that guy.  Personally, I would have looked to sign someone with more experience, even with some cap allocation associated with it.  

 

Falling Behind, One Draft at a Time

 

I'm not spending much time discussing what Jalen Hurts is as a QB prospect.  That is subjective at this point, though I'll state my opinion for the record, even though I don't care if they took Joe Burrow, it doesn't change the basic issue I have with what they did.  I personally don't think Hurts has much of a chance of being very good as an NFL starting QB, and admit on that point I could be wrong.  When you watch his film, what special skills do you see?  Vision, poise, arm, etc?  I don't see any of it, I'm sorry, but I don't.  I see a guy that lost his job at Alabama to a freshman because he was essentially a good runner as an option QB, he can make one read and then looks to run, but has an awkward motion and mechanics, and isn't a great passing quarterback, even by SEC standards.  I don't see how he projects to be a top level QB in the NFL.  The Eagles have compared him to Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.  He may be a great kid, and he is clearly a "winner," a team guy, a tough player and so forth, that is great.  He put up great numbers at Oklahoma.  I would encourage anyone who has not to go look at his film and then formulate your own opinion.  Don't just go on what you have read or heard.  Quarterback is the easiest position to have a reasonable opinion as a knowledgeable fan.  You usually know it when you see it.  Go watch him.  For comparison, watch some of Carson's film from the Bison days.  Then for extra credit, go watch Russell Wilson at Wisconsin and tell me you see ANY comparison between how he plays and how Hurts played in either of his schools.  Russell was "short," but he was a tremendous player and passer.

 

None of that evaluation has anything to do with this post.  This post is about the true cost and implications to the Eagles of making this decision.

 

While the Eagles were taking a quarterback in the 2nd round (backup?  gadget player?  new franchise qb?), the rest of the league and most certainly the division was getting better.  Each of the division rivals got a lot better.  This is on the heels of the Eagles poor, perhaps very poor, overall drafting in the last 5-6 years.  When you aren't getting better, you are getting worse.  Look at the rest of the NFC East drafts.  Each one of them added guys that will help immediately and probably for the long term.  It is hard to say the Eagles did that.  We hope Reagor is the right fit (As I said at the time, I think it was absolutely wrong to pass on Jefferson), but many of the picks are/were head scratchers.

 

Baldy is a pretty smart football guy.  He is also generally very positive and favorable to the Eagles.  His comments on this draft:

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/eagles-draft-brian-baldinger-missed-boat-analytics-jalen-reagor-justin-jefferson-jalen-hurts-carson-wentz-packages-kvon-wallace-starter-20200428.html

 

Here are just a few of the players that the Eagles could have taken with pick 53.  Think about the impact any of them could have had this upcoming season and for the next few.

• Denzel Mims - imagine Mims and Reagor -- there were those on here that wanted Mims in round 1!
• AJ Epenesa - possibly best DE in draft after Chase Young; high floor player 
• Jeremy Chinn - freak athletic saftey, Malcolm is gone BTW
• Kristian Fulton - fast potential starting CB from DB University
• Logan Wilson - tell me this guy is not a long time starting MIKE in the NFL?  With good athleticism and great instincts? could we use that?
• Ashtyn Davis - possibly the most range of any safety in the draft; could be useful on a team that is burned deep often
• J.K. Dobbins - anyone watch Ohio State?  How about this guy with Sanders this year

 

Whatever you think of Hurts, and even if you disregard all of the problems the Eagles caused making this pick, they could not AFFORD to take a QB with this pick.  This was a kind of luxury pick that they don't have the money to cover.  This is the proverbial guy going out and buying a car when he can't afford his rent payment.  Nice car buddy... now you will be living in it.

 

Marcus Hayes made a salient point in a column yesterday.  The Eagles brass drafts like they have no accountability, no fear of ever being fired.  The word is hubris.

https://www.inquirer.com/eagles/nfl-draft-eagles-jalen-reagor-jalen-hurts-howie-roseman-doug-pederson-20200430.html

 

Summary

 

To summarize this, as succinctly as I can:

• The Eagles made a monumental (and obvious) mistake in drafting Jalen Hurts
• The draft pick indicates that the Eagles are not committed to Carson Wentz, even after giving him a massive guaranteed money extension
• Not being committed to your franchise quarterback is an insane position for a team to take, and will deteriorate quickly
• Like it or not, their choice of Hurts will now lead to many questions, of Carson, Jalen, the coaches, and the team, all of which will be negative
• This selection, like it or not, fractures their relationship with Carson as the intentions are obvious, regardless of what words are exchanged and statements are made by all parties, including Carson
• Because Carson is in place now with serious long term dollars committed, outside of a major injury, there is a decent chance they will not have the time or opportunity to develop Jalen appropriately.  Best scenario for Jalen is Carson gets hurt again soon.  If Carson plays well, Jalen's development will be limited at best, sub-optimal at worst (for him)
• If Carson continues to play well enough, and remains healthy, Jalen's role and development path are unclear; something he is unlikely to be happy about (just look at his college history for an example of how he may handle)
• Jalen does not have the same skill set (esp speed) as Taysom Hill, and is unlikely to flourish in a similar role; as the coaches have said, he is coming in as a quarterback
• You do not draft "gadget" players in the second round; for reference, Taysom Hill was an UDFA
• The concept of putting "two guys on the field that can throw the ball" is not new, and while the Eagles staff may have new, innovative ideas on how to implement this, they are unlikely to amount to more than "gadget" plays that have a nominal impact on the teams success.  At worst, the concepts may not work at all, and may result in sub-optimal game outcomes that could have been avoided.
• The Eagles could not afford to take a pick for an "insurance policy" at quarterback when they have so many other needs
• The Eagles passed on a likely starter in a deep draft to take a "backup" quarterbackThe Eagles were much better served procuring another veteran backup, if in fact Sudfeld is not up to the task
• The cap implications and "value" of saving money on a backup quarterback have been grossly overstated
• While the Eagles were drafting backup quarterbacks and "fast" players, the rest of the NFC east had outstanding drafts and addressed needs
• The General manager is talking about Quarterback Factories and "taking players that have the most value;" clear indications he did not learn anything on his hiatus, or has quickly reverted back to who he is; senior, competent personnel leadership is needed
• Regardless of who the GM and/or coaches wanted, the owner should have been able to see what was happening and prevent this disaster.  The fact that he did not prevent the high level strategic mistake indicates that he needs to delegate this important responsibility to someone else.  Someone like a Joe Banner, who came out and said he would not have made the pick.  He needs help as he should have seen this and squashed it, as 31 other NFL owners would have done.

I've said what I wanted to say.  Maybe in a few years, we can look back and say "wow, John was so wrong" as Carson is out of the league and Jalen is hoisting his first Lombardi in midnight green.  Unfortunately, I think it will be a very different outcome.  

This stuff is becoming insufferable.   They did what they did, how many diatribes need to be written to feel right and righteous?   It just feels like a bunch of you are vying for the "I can't wait to say I told you so" trophy.  Enjoy a young person's chance to live a dream, enjoy potential and hope and the unknown.   Of course there are obstacles and it may all crash and burn, but it may not as well.  It could evolve into perfect symmetry, which is what I hope you all want, but from what I read from a lot of you would rather grind an axe.  Boring as crap.

1 hour ago, Alphagrand said:

His numbers were very comparable to both Murray and Mayfield.  Comp % very close, yards passing a little down from Mayfield, but Mayfield didn't run much at all, Hurts went 32/8 where both Murray and Mayfield were 42/7 and 43/6

Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius.  If you're a college QB in his system, I'd say it's all but a guarantee you're going to be overdrafted.  I definitely don't believe Baker will ever be elite, or even good, at the NFL level (never did), I don't think Murray will ever be a top 10 QB (I think he'll be a decent weapon), and the difference in Hurts playing in Alabama compared to played in Oklahoma is like watching 2 different QBs.  Another reason out of 1000 why he was a stupid pick for this team.  

10 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Honestly you could say Treyvon Hester, Bruce Hector, Hasaan Ridgeway or Anthony Rush and to me they are all the same JAG 4th DT.  

I'll take the 23 year old vs the 28 year old

12 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

That is a variable stat.  If you play behind a really good OL and they give you good time, then I'm not going to fault a QB for taking it.  

Brady and Manning used to sit in the pocket forever, flatfooted, just waiting for someone to peel open.  Of course...no one in league history would identify the open guy faster than those two.  But they'd take the time if they had it.  So the stat can be a little unreliable.  

Yes, but even then they never averaged anywhere close to 3 seconds to get the ball out on the season. Russell Wilson isn't close to it.

That is alarming and harder to teach than a few mechanical issues, which he has too.

24 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

I think this plays into using the second round pick.  Sudfeld has apparently told the Eagles he wants to go compete for a #1 QB job, so after this season he’s out regardless.  I’ve never seen anything from Sudfeld to make me believe he can be a #1 QB, but that’s his option.  Thorson as a 5th round pick must have been horrid to get cut after training camp.

The Eagles could have waited to choose a QB like Jake Fromm or Jacob Eason, but they obviously didn’t grade these guys highly as developmental QBs, even though Fromm was a 3-year starter at Georgia.  They simply evaluate Hurts as a much better prospect, and I’m starting to hear commentators focusing on Hurts having a very strong skill set to run an RPO offense which is largely what Pederson developed for Foles.

I’m completely against the idea of bringing in a veteran QB based solely on the opinion that bringing in any of Flacco, Dalton, Newton or Winston is taking a step backwards.  All of the first 3 guys aren’t close to as good as they once were, and Winston is the opposite of what a team should look for in a #2 QB.

Hurts wouldn’t have been the pick I made, but if he does what McCown couldn’t do last year and gets the Eagles past SEA (either with his arm or legs, couldn’t care less) or wins a couple regular season games if needed, then the pick pays dividends IMO

If you are looking for a backup that can come in and win some playoff games because the starter gets hurt late in the season or in the playoff game itself you don't set your sights on a rookie who won't have any NFL experience whatsoever and especially not this year when the practice reps are going to be abnormally limited.  You go with the proven vet who's been around a while.

If you want someone as an insurance policy down the road who can build into an NFL QB and takeover should your franchise guy not work out or be sidelined with career type injuries then that works just fine.  The Eagles are close enough to have a shot this year and they should be setting the team up for a run now and not just 3/4 years down the road.

2 hours ago, RLC said:

A lot. TBF, you can praise Andy for a lot of those, but even here Wentz/Foles got a lot better under Pederson.

Wentz is our Quarterback Foles was good under Chip and good while playing here. Andy's don't count now.

9 minutes ago, MediterraneanDiet said:

This stuff is becoming insufferable.   They did what they did, how many diatribes need to be written to feel right and righteous?   It just feels like a bunch of you are vying for the "I can't wait to say I told you so" trophy.  Enjoy a young person's chance to live a dream, enjoy potential and hope and the unknown.   Of course there are obstacles and it may all crash and burn, but it may not as well.  It could evolve into perfect symmetry, which is what I hope you all want, but from what I read from a lot of you would rather grind an axe.  Boring as crap.

Go fap to to cheeseburger.

 

Great write up @John_C.

I agree by and large.

I understand the FO mindset, I just don't agree with it.

They haven't been great on targeting talent, period. Hurts is such a strange pick in terms of fit.

I don't hate the kid at all. Just really don't think it is helping Carson as much as they could/should.

 

 

1 hour ago, Iggles_Phan said:

 

McNabb
Feeley (turned into a high second round pick)
Kolb (turned into high second round pick and a CB)
Vick (much better QB here than in Atlanta, there he was just an athlete)
Foles (only seems to find the magic with the Eagles and even then its hit or miss)
Wentz

 

Now, are they Mark Brunell who left GB and turned into a Pro Bowler?  No.  But, in terms of what the team needed... they worked out. 
Feeley went 4-1 in 5 starts in 2002 to maintain HFA, and they flipped him for a nice pick.
Kolb - filled in ok for McNabb when injured.  Showed enough as a starter before his concussion to get AZ interested to repay the pick used to draft him, plus interest (DRC).
Vick - Put on an MVP like campaign in relief of Kolb.  And was a dropped Riley Cooper fade pattern from getting this team a playoff win.
Foles - 27/2 stretch... magical SB run in NFCCG and SB.  Worth everything we ever spent on him.
Wentz - high investment, but is what he was billed to be.  Just a question of durability.

 

 

Pederson didn't develop any of those quarterbacks here. Wentz is it. Foles as you stated only plays well here.