3 minutes ago, Nivraga said:

I think Belicheat is a great coach. He the lacks moral integrity to not cheat. I often joke that if you are not cheating then you're not trying (I know that's not original but I don't know where to give credit). But Belichick is a believer. His core philosophy is to do whatever it takes to win and if that means breaking the rules then so be it. He's a great coach. He's a cheater. There's no point in denying either. 

I believe it was the great Eddie Guerrero 

Patriots lose their QB to FA, take a step back and then step back up to conference prominence with a rookie QB... if they get the #1 seed, Belichek is the COTY, and I don't think it's a particularly close vote.  

Was just thinking about what teams around the league will be aggressive in getting a new QB next year, and these come to mind:

Denver

Pittsburgh

Washington

Giants

Panthers

Falcons

Saints

 

I think the Lions are going to ride out Goff's contract, and try to build up the rest of their roster (or at least, they should). The Texans are interesting, depends I guess on how much they like Mills. 

Based on current draft order, you have the Giants, Panthers, Falcons and Saints all picking ahead of us. I think the Panthers and Falcons should really focus on o-line, but they could easily draft a QB with their first picks. 

If Rodgers goes to Denver, GB will roll with Love. I think Miami might be happy enough now with how Tua has played to back out of the Watson talks. If Wilson is traded somewhere, then Seattle would enter as a team in need of a QB, though again, I think they'd be far better served building up their O-line instead. 

So how many QB prospects go in the top 10 then? Does Pickett find his way in there? Strong? I think Pittsburgh could be a target for a draft day trade, if they end up picking in the high teens (currently they are 18). 

Just some random thoughts on a snowy Wednesday here. 

36 minutes ago, Mike31mt said:

I expect your linear regression model later this afternoon.  I would say your "n" is too small for tbis type of analysis, even if I agree with your conclusion

Football is not a sport that lends itself well to a well-powered n.  Baseball is.  There aren't enough clean repetitions and results for that.  17 games per year, 15 sacks per year for the elite, 40 TDs per year for elite QBs, etc.  Pass rush win rate is a well-powered number, but that's also exceptionally dirty data.  You've got some PFF high school intern counting that on tape with a huge can of worms as to whether or not they are doing it right...that's converting a subjective interpretation of a play to an objective number.

57 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

If the Patriots end up as the #1 seed in the AFC, does Bellichek win coach of the year? 

He deserves consideration.  

10 hours ago, austinfan said:

Tinker toys are fine, but you take them later in the draft, see Watkins. Deep threats who can't run the route tree shouldn't be taken in the 1st couple rounds.

And yet your boy Howie took Reagor, instead of the most pro ready WR to come out of the draft in 10 years in Justin Jefferson

4 hours ago, olsilverhair said:

how can any person, still think hurts is gonna get better, his last outing was one of his baddest of the year, it all starts with the qb no matter what you think, if he uses his legs he is dangerous, but you know that wont last long, I know minshew isnt the answer, but if they are serious about the playoffs this year then you have to go with minshew, if you are wanting the higher draft pick then you roll with hurts, cause thats what he'll get you

51 minutes ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

Yep....no question.  But the crybabies will try to muster something up again about cheating...

Right, because we all know people that get caught cheating, never cheat again. I'm not the one that soiled his reputation, he is. 

44 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

The "Jalen Hurts needs time to continue to improve as a passer" crowd needs to see this.  First we have passing yards by chronological start.  Then we have passer rating by start.  A line of best fit analysis shows you a modest decline in his passing since he got the starting job.  He's not improving.  

I'm no kind of statistician but it doesn't seem to me that those points of data lend themselves to a straight line. I mean if you remove weeks 15 and 16 the trend is up on the QBR.   I am not sure that passing yards is an indicator of passing ability.  I think over the course of a season improvement is a bit of misguided idea and wonder how his performance is vs. quality of the pass defenses.   I am not defending Hurts.  I think it's fair to look at his last game and wonder if he has traits that are immutable and can't be fixed with practice and experience.  I do think the trend in passing yards reflects an offense that is much more efficient running the football.  Although, I don't think that's necessarily an effective approach to winning a Super Bowl. I think running teams are having more success this year.  If Hurts is the QB on a running team and the team has an elite defense, I think this is a 10+ win team potentially.  I think an elite defense and an above average passing QB and an elite defense would make this a 12+ win team.  

5 minutes ago, NCiggles said:

I'm no kind of statistician but it doesn't seem to me that those points of data lend themselves to a straight line. I mean if you remove weeks 15 and 16 the trend is up on the QBR.   I am not sure that passing yards is an indicator of passing ability.  I think over the course of a season improvement is a bit of misguided idea and wonder how his performance is vs. quality of the pass defenses.   I am not defending Hurts.  I think it's fair to look at his last game and wonder if he has traits that are immutable and can't be fixed with practice and experience.  I do think the trend in passing yards reflects an offense that is much more efficient running the football.  Although, I don't think that's necessarily an effective approach to winning a Super Bowl. I think running teams are having more success this year.  If Hurts is the QB on a running team and the team has an elite defense, I think this is a 10+ win team potentially.  I think an elite defense and an above average passing QB and an elite defense would make this a 12+ win team.  

It’s a line of best fit…a statistical term for a straight line following a trend over the x axis on a scatter plot.  Just a visual guide that shows his lack of improvement over time.

1 hour ago, eagle45 said:

The "Jalen Hurts needs time to continue to improve as a passer" crowd needs to see this.  First we have passing yards by chronological start.  Then we have passer rating by start.  A line of best fit analysis shows you a modest decline in his passing since he got the starting job.  He's not improving.  

Eagle45 is showing why stats are dangerous without context.

 

40 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

Was just thinking about what teams around the league will be aggressive in getting a new QB next year, and these come to mind:

Denver

Pittsburgh

Washington

Giants

Panthers

Falcons

Saints

Excellent question. 

Corral/Pickett are going in the top 15. I'm curious who makes the plunge. My gut says that the Steelers will love Pickett (not just because he played for Pitt, but he's the most pro-ready for the QBs and they're ready to win now). The Giants/Wilson make a ton of sense. Watson is getting traded (my $ is still on Carolina). If Denver gets Rodgers, Love starts for GB.

Washington is really the odd-team out. They'll win too much to have a top 10 pick...but no veteran QB will want to go there unless they're a journeyman.

5 minutes ago, RLC said:

Excellent question. 

Corral/Pickett are going in the top 15. I'm curious who makes the plunge. My gut says that the Steelers will love Pickett (not just because he played for Pitt, but he's the most pro-ready for the QBs and they're ready to win now). The Giants/Wilson make a ton of sense. Watson is getting traded (my $ is still on Carolina). If Denver gets Rodgers, Love starts for GB.

Washington is really the odd-team out. They'll win too much to have a top 10 pick...but no veteran QB will want to go there unless they're a journeyman.

I agree with most of your thoughts here. 

Washington is odd. And so is Wilson, quite frankly. If it's true that he's looking for a big market because of his wife, that's really f*'ed up. Because if he went to Washington, they'd legit be top contenders in the NFC. They have nice weapons in Gibson/McKissic, McLaurin, and could add another WR. Thomas is a good TE, but made of glass so you can't really rely on him. But Wilson could essentially walk into an early era Seattle type team, carried by the defense, and ask him to do just enough to win. If he wants to go after another ring, I think Washington makes a lot of sense for him. 

And let's be serious....once his career is finished, do we really think Cialis stays with him? Going to the Giants would just be a terrible career move for him, IMO. 

19 minutes ago, RLC said:

Eagle45 is showing why stats are dangerous without context.

'dangerous'?  

Washington probably just goes into next year with Taylor Ham as their guy. 

Falcons I don't know if they will be "aggressive" getting a QB. They are more less stuck with Ryan next year because of his contract.

Saints similarly I don't see them being aggressive. Bad cap, and they gave Hill that stupid contract. I think they re-sign Winston or a guy like that and roll with him/Hill.

 

For the draftniks out there....just saw a story that Treylon Burks, WR from Arkansas, 6'3, 225 lbs, is expected to run the 40 in the 4.2 range. Is that realistic? Where would you expect him to fall in the draft? 

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Washington probably just goes into next year with Taylor Ham as their guy. 

Falcons I don't know if they will be "aggressive" getting a QB. They are more less stuck with Ryan next year because of his contract.

Saints similarly I don't see them being aggressive. Bad cap, and they gave Hill that stupid contract. I think they re-sign Winston or a guy like that and roll with him/Hill.

 

Yep, you could absolutely be right. Was just throwing out teams that really have a pressing need. I think you're dead right on Atlanta, they'll ride with Ryan and maybe take a QB later in the draft to try and develop for a year. 

The Saints will do whatever Payton wants I guess. If they can get Winston back at a good discount I'd guess he's the day 1 starter there next year. 

28 minutes ago, RLC said:

Eagle45 is showing why stats are dangerous without context.

This really isn't even a stat.  It's a scatterplot.  A scatterplot just...IS.  It exists.  And there is a best fit line for every scatterplot. 

You don't have to like the direction it's going in.  It's not a guarantee of anything or an absolute.  Context is just your (or my) BS to argue against what the trend is showing.    

IMO, we should be rooting for WFT this weekend.

First, makes Dallas more likely to be the 4 seed and week 18 irrelevant to them.

Second, we can knock out WFT in our two games with them.

Finally, Dallas sucks.

I am a statistician and there is nothing wrong with E45's presentation.  The proper conclusion is that the data presented show no, nada, zilch evidence that Hurts is improving in the two passing metrics.

1 hour ago, 4for4EaglesNest said:

I don't believe that is all of it.  Or part of it really.  Since when does the Philly media play nice and do whatever a franchise asks them to do.  I think it has more to do with Hurts not being Wentz and the social/political climate that this country has been in the last few years.  Def more to do then what the Eagles want the message to be.  That makes more sense coming from this media and this franchise run by Woke Lowie.  

I know this take will be really popular, but...I think a lot of this goes back to McNabb and built from there. There was a national perspective that Philly fans and the media were too harsh on McNabb, and some people took that to the obvious place. So they trade McNabb, everyone hails Kolb as a savior...and then Kolb actually blows. A few years later you had the Riley Cooper situation, followed up by the NJ media "article" on DeSean right before he got cut. And all the whispers about Chip Kelly's relationship with black players... 

I think all of this has influenced this current group of Philly sportswriters to be overly "woke" or "sensitive" because they are terrified of continuing that perceived narrative and getting called out by the Twitter crowd. It's why Rueben Frank was basically acting like Duce Staley's agent this offseason -- no one in the NFL thinks Duce is a viable HC candidate, but Roob pushed that narrative every day. It's why they now support Hurts unequivocally. They are afraid of being called out by the mob.

18 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

For the draftniks out there....just saw a story that Treylon Burks, WR from Arkansas, 6'3, 225 lbs, is expected to run the 40 in the 4.2 range. Is that realistic? Where would you expect him to fall in the draft? 

If I'm looking at what speed Burks actually plays at -- there's no chance he runs any faster than the 4.42 Claypool ran at the Combine.

If he runs 4.2 (fat chance) he'd be a top 6 overall pick.  When he runs 4.37 (my prediction) he'll be drafted in the teens somewhere

So how are we feeling about Sirianni at this point?