5 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

I am a statistician and there is nothing wrong with E45's presentation.  The proper conclusion is that the data presented show no, nada, zilch evidence that Hurts is improving in the two passing metrics.

If you are indeed a statistician you know that reality is complex and you can find statistics to prove any point if you look for it. Correlation doesn‘t equal causation anyways. 

To draw meaningful conclusions about Hurts as a passer you would need to add a lot more context (data points, variables).

If all you needed was what is presented here, drafting a QB would be the easiest thing in the world.

1 minute ago, vikas83 said:

I know this take will be really popular, but...I think a lot of this goes back to McNabb and built from there. There was a national perspective that Philly fans and the media were too harsh on McNabb, and some people took that to the obvious place. So they trade McNabb, everyone hails Kolb as a savior...and then Kolb actually blows. A few years later you had the Riley Cooper situation, followed up by the NJ media "article" on DeSean right before he got cut. And all the whispers about Chip Kelly's relationship with black players... 

I think all of this has influenced this current group of Philly sportswriters to be overly "woke" or "sensitive" because they are terrified of continuing that perceived narrative and getting called out by the Twitter crowd. It's why Rueben Frank was basically acting like Duce Staley's agent this offseason -- no one in the NFL thinks Duce is a viable HC candidate, but Roob pushed that narrative every day. It's why they now support Hurts unequivocally. They are afraid of being called out by the mob.

WIP pushes hard for Duce as HC and bashes Lurie for not making that "obvious call".  I don't want to talk race and won't speculate as for the motivations, but jeez, Duce?  

He couldn't get an INTERVIEW for an OC job (as far as I know)...and certainly couldn't get an OC job.    When has anyone ever made the jump from RB coach to HC without a pit stop as OC?  In NFL history?  And people want to act like Duce deserved the job.

4 minutes ago, Infam said:

If you are indeed a statistician you know that reality is complex and you can find statistics to prove any point if you look for it. Correlation doesn‘t equal causation anyways. 

To draw meaningful conclusions about Hurts as a passer you would need to add a lot more context (data points, variables).

If all you needed was what is presented here, drafting a QB would be the easiest thing in the world.

No, that chart just backs up what we can see with our eyes. Hurts has regressed as a passer. He has improved his running, tho. Which would be great if he was our RB. 

A follower of the Birds with Friends podcast created the following.  Very helpful cheat sheet.

If the Vikings lose tomorrow, we basically control our own destiny.

5 minutes ago, Infam said:

If you are indeed a statistician you know that reality is complex and you can find statistics to prove any point if you look for it. Correlation doesn‘t equal causation anyways. 

To draw meaningful conclusions about Hurts as a passer you would need to add a lot more context (data points, variables).

If all you needed was what is presented here, drafting a QB would be the easiest thing in the world.

"Reality is complex" is not a counterpoint to a conclusion you don't like.

Also, a scatterplot is data points.  That's all it is.

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

WIP pushes hard for Duce as HC and bashes Lurie for not making that "obvious call".  I don't want to talk race and won't speculate as for the motivations, but jeez, Duce?  

He couldn't get an INTERVIEW for an OC job (as far as I know)...and certainly couldn't get an OC job.    When has anyone ever made the jump from RB coach to HC without a pit stop as OC?  In NFL history?  And people want to act like Duce deserved the job.

While I agree with this, it sure was a bad look that Josh McCown got an interview at the same time who is even less qualified.

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

"Reality is complex" is not a counterpoint to a conclusion you don't like.

Also, a scatterplot is data points.  That's all it is.

You can correlate shoe size with income earned. Doesn‘t mean bigger feet cause higher income.

1 minute ago, Infam said:

You can correlate shoe size with income earned. Doesn‘t mean bigger feet cause higher income.

Here's a simple test.

If a young QB was improving as a passer over the course of a season, would the head coach who calls offensive plays call more or less passing plays per game as the season goes on? 

9 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So how are we feeling about Sirianni at this point?

I was almost out on him after Vegas. He's trending upward, but I still don't think he's running his offense or what he wants to do, so long term I'm not sure. I'm still not thrilled with his "chart" as it seems nonsensical at times. 

32 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

For the draftniks out there....just saw a story that Treylon Burks, WR from Arkansas, 6'3, 225 lbs, is expected to run the 40 in the 4.2 range. Is that realistic? Where would you expect him to fall in the draft? 

Watch his Alabama tape. I started this on one of his biggest plays for the game; obvious OPI that doesn't get called but you see him run by every Alabama defensive back. I don't know if he will be in the 4.2 range, but the kid is deceivingly fast for his size.

16 minutes ago, Infam said:

If you are indeed a statistician you know that reality is complex and you can find statistics to prove any point if you look for it. Correlation doesn‘t equal causation anyways. 

To draw meaningful conclusions about Hurts as a passer you would need to add a lot more context (data points, variables).

If all you needed was what is presented here, drafting a QB would be the easiest thing in the world.

How about this, I watch the game, and know what I am looking at.  A guy who can not progress through reads, bails the pocket early, does not process quick enough to see early developing routes.  You know, all the weaknesses listed in his draft profile, and he is not improving on any of them.

Weaknesses

• Has issues sustaining rhythm as passer with so many off-schedule throws
• Inconsistent patience allowing routes to develop
• Slow recognition of early throw opportunities
• Leaves slants and crossers behind targets
• Misses checkdowns and opts for harder throws
• Deep arm dip into elongated release
• Forced speedsters at OU and Alabama to slow for deep throws
• Needs to get better at trusting his pocket
• Quick to drop his eyes when pressure mounts
• More likely to void pocket than climb, scan and throw from it

14 minutes ago, Infam said:

If you are indeed a statistician you know that reality is complex and you can find statistics to prove any point if you look for it. Correlation doesn‘t equal causation anyways. 

To draw meaningful conclusions about Hurts as a passer you would need to add a lot more context (data points, variables).

If all you needed was what is presented here, drafting a QB would be the easiest thing in the world.

This is, perhaps, the worst nonsense I've seen here in a long time. I know you are desperate to defend Hurts, but you should stick to emotional arguments and leave data-based analyses to the scientists and statisticians.

16 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So how are we feeling about Sirianni at this point?

I've really become a fan. His ability to completely adapt the offense to the limitations of his QB -- that's what good coaches do. I know we all want to kill him for not doing it sooner, but (i) he's a young coach and (ii) apparently the passing was working in camp. 

Plus, the team didn't quit on him and the vets have bought in. I'd like to see what he can do with a real QB.

The quality of the opponent has been lower since week 8. You would expect his stats to trend upwards going against easier defenses, but it does not.

4 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

This is, perhaps, the worst nonsense I've seen here in a long time. I know you are desperate to defend Hurts, but you should stick to emotional arguments and leave data-based analyses to the scientists and statisticians.

Oh really? 😁

Well Mr Scientist how about instead of attacking me personally you argue my points instead? You know, like we real scientists do?

But hey, I guess just because you call yourself a statistician doesn‘t actually mean you have any clue on the matter.

1 minute ago, Infam said:

Oh really? 😁

Well Mr Scientist how about instead of attacking me personally you argue my points instead? You know, like we real scientists do?

But hey, I guess just because you call yourself a statistican doesn‘t actually mean you have any clue on the matter.

Exactly what points are those?

Don’t worry guys I’ve watched the Simpsons and taken some of the statistics the show has provided. Probably the best one they’ve given us 

3 minutes ago, wussbasket said:

The quality of the opponent has been lower since week 8. You would expect his stats to trend upwards going against easier defenses, but it does not.

And his last game was his worst against the #24th defense in total yards allowed, 17th defense in passing yards allowed, 18th defense in points allowed at 22.8 PPG, and we scored 7.  This in a game in which we had 24 carries for 128 yards by the running backs.

@Infam, the reason for the loss was Jalen Hurts.  He completed 45% of his passes, converted 4 of 11 3rd downs, and lost TOP.

19 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

So how are we feeling about Sirianni at this point?

I think he has the offense going in the right direction, we constantly see receivers getting open, scoring 30+ points quite regularly, and the run game is one of the best in the league. I don't think this is the offense he wants to run, but with the players we have its the one we need to run. Pretty pleased with him so far but think he has a lot of room to grow, which he will get with experience.

1 minute ago, Desertbirds said:

Exactly what points are those?

How about that picking a single metric with a dozen data points to prove a very complex theory (quality of Hurts passing iE) makes you look like an idiot, not an NFL QB researcher.

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

 

@Infam, the reason for the loss was Jalen Hurts.  He completed 45% of his passes, converted 4 of 11 3rd downs, and lost TOP.

Ok, let‘s add some counter points. How many of his passes were on target and deemed catchable?

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Don’t worry guys I’ve watched the Simpsons and taken some of the statistics the show has provided. Probably the best one they’ve given us 

"Ignorance is bliss", Thomas Gray (1768).

Just now, Infam said:

How about that picking a single metric with a dozen data points to prove a very complex theory (quality of Hurts passing iE) makes you look like an idiot, not an NFL QB researcher.

Can you please provide any evidence that Hurts is a competent NFL QB? And forget about his running stats, what has he shown to prove he's a legit thrower of the football? Why has Sirianni called fewer and fewer passes for him per game as the season has gone on? Why is he putting up worse stats against inferior defenses? 

1 minute ago, Infam said:

How about that picking a single metric with a dozen data points to prove a very complex theory (quality of Hurts passing iE) makes you look like an idiot, not an NFL QB researcher.

Like Jalen Hurts's 17.5 rating against the giants?

9 minutes ago, Infam said:

How about that picking a single metric with a dozen data points to prove a very complex theory (quality of Hurts passing iE) makes you look like an idiot, not an NFL QB researcher.

OK, there's. your homework assignment: learn about statistical hypothesis testing. There will be a test later.