If you're at the top of that list, it's probably because you're in a lot of short 3rd downs. If you're at the bottom, you're probably in a lot of 3rd & 10+.

7 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

If you're at the top of that list, you're probably in a lot of short 3rd downs. If you're at the bottom, you're probably in a lot of 3rd & 10+.

Very possible. Context matters!

11 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

If you're at the top of that list, it's probably because you're in a lot of short 3rd downs. If you're at the bottom, you're probably in a lot of 3rd & 10+.

If you're in a lot of short 3rd downs, your completion percentage on 1st and 2nd down is probably higher (or have a great run game).  If you're in a lot of long third downs, your completion percentage on 1st and 2nd down is probably lower.  

If you have the #1 run game in the NFL and are in enough 3rd and longs to have one of the lowest 3rd down completion percentages in the NFL, you probably just can't pass.

1 minute ago, eagle45 said:

If you're in a lot of short 3rd downs, your completion percentage on 1st and 2nd down is probably higher (or have a great run game).  If you're in a lot of long third downs, your completion percentage on 1st and 2nd down is probably lower.  

If you have the #1 run game in the NFL and are in enough 3rd and longs to have one of the lowest 3rd down completion percentages in the NFL, you probably just can't pass.

Yeah, I wasn't necessarily trying to defend Hurts or anyone on that list. Just providing context to it. You would think Hurts should have a much better completion percentage. He's being put in as good a position to succeed as any QB in the NFL right now.

1 minute ago, schuy7 said:

Yeah, I wasn't necessarily trying to defend Hurts or anyone on that list. Just providing context to it. You would think Hurts should have a much better completion percentage. He's being put in as good a position to succeed as any QB in the NFL right now.

Yup.  There are some good qbs low on that list, although mostly good qbs having uncharacteristically bad years.

3 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Here’s the thing…. MOST OF US WANTED NO PART OF FIELDS AND WILSON. So you keep bringing them up when the majority of this board didn’t like them. However the eagles did like Wilson as there were multiple reports they tried to trade up high enough to get him. 

as for Lawrence if you switched hurts and Lawrence for one another, you think the jaguars are going to be good? I’m betting they still suck suck their oline sucks, their defense sucks and urban Meyer was a complete failure. I’m guessing Lawrence looks much better than in Jacksonville as he actually has an oline, a competent coach and decent playmakers. 

It's all he has.  But, as we know, Hurts is basically a rookie. 

12 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

Reagor had his best day because they decided to completely ignore the rest of the team and make him Hurts main read every play until he finally had some plays go his way. And we all know Hurts is a one read QB so once that ball is snapped he locks on his main read and doesnt look back. If I was Smith, id be a little pissed cause they completely ignored him in the 2nd half to get Reagor a feel good moment for himself. 

I will need to see the All 22 but I think that with Ward (22 snaps)replacing some of Watkins’ (25)snaps, that Reagor (38 snaps) was playing some Z.  Could be wrong but need to dissect it. Smith wasn’t ignored.  Washington was double covering him. 

48 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

If you're at the top of that list, it's probably because you're in a lot of short 3rd downs. If you're at the bottom, you're probably in a lot of 3rd & 10+.

Hurts is in some bizzarro world because he proves that theory wrong. His percentage gets better the farther the 3rd down is.

For context, here's Allens splits whose just ahead of Hurts on 3rd down completion %

Both Allen and Hurts attempted 55 passes with 7 or more to go. The issue is Hurts hasn't been good in the 4-6 range where Allen drops off in the 7+ range. 

 

14 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Hurts is in some bizzarro world because he proves that theory wrong. His percentage gets better the farther the 3rd down is.

This is likely because 3rd and longs are so often thrown short of the stick, either a screen pass, or a short crossing route or something like that.... Theyre often shorter easier passes on a 3rd and 10+.

On a 3rd and 5, you can throw a 6 yard pass. Thats usually an adventure with Hurts. Its lower percentage than a WR screen.

11 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

 

This is why you can’t believe a tweet.  29.3 PPG is total.  Take away defensive scores, it's actually 26.3 PPG.  Take away Minshew’s game, it’s 25 PPG.

 

2 minutes ago, downundermike said:

This is why you can’t believe a tweet.  29.3 PPG is total.  Take away defensive scores, it's actually 26.3 PPG.  Take away Minshew’s game, it’s 25 PPG.

 

Why would we take away Minshew's game? Not every conversation is about Jalen Hurts.

9 hours ago, greend said:

Bullcrap. The ball was thrown up eli style and goedert wrestled it out of the defenders hands. Not taking away from Hurts good day but that play wasn't spectacular on his end

I did say sometimes late. He was a tad late on that ball, allowing the S to get in position but he also threw it where Goedert could contest for it, and did, successfully. Hurts’ biggest issue is that he reads until he sees the receiver open, then throws it allowing the window to tighten. But he has a tendency to avoid contested throws and has been doing a good job of working away from that. Still bothered by his not reading to anticipate the receiver open but he is improving.  Another QB that drove me nuts by not reading to anticipate the receiver being open early in his career was McNabb. 

5 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

Why would we take away Minshew's game? Not every conversation is about Jalen Hurts.

The point is, you are fooled by the running game carrying an average QB to wins against bad teams, lowering draft position when we need top 10 talent on this defense.  
 

We were looking at 3 top 10 picks 6 weeks ago, now we may only get one top 20 pick.

26 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

The switch to a run first offense turned around our season, if only we had done that earlier. Oh well, better late than never.

Kinda surprised by the explosive plays stat to be honest.

13 minutes ago, downundermike said:

 Take away Minshew’s game, it’s 25 PPG.

We played the Jets.

3 minutes ago, RLC said:

We played the Jets.

And ??  

 

2 hours ago, mattwill said:

Their defense has quietly ascended the NFL rankings.  Right now on a Yards/Game basis they are #11, and are closer to #8 than they are to #12. In Passing Yards per game they are #11 and #10 in Rushing Yards per game.  In Points/Game they are #15, and only eight points behind #8 (there is a tight bunch of eight teams between 300 and 309, with the Eagles at 308).  Perhaps @Connecticut Eagle can post where they stand in Defensive DVOA, which will make allowance for strength of schedule.

23rd in Defensive DVOA.  They're bad.  Letting the Jets score three TDs is all you need to know.

2 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

 

This place is going to melt down.

How the F is Sweat any kind of Pro-bowl alternate?

4 minutes ago, RLC said:

We played the Jets.

we also faced the crap lions and giants.

 a Covid struck WFT.

the chargers (good opponent— scored 24).  

saints have a good defense. However with siemian who is a turnover machine and kills that defense. There’s a reason the saints found themselves down 14 or more in the 4th quarter in every game he started. 

Denver where the offense scored 23 (slay had a return td after our offense was outgained 130-25 in the third quarter) 

14 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

 

Not really that surprising tbh. After rodgers, brady, murray, Stafford and Dak could make the case it’s between cousins and hurts. Frankly i think Stafford deserved it more than murray to be on the nfc roster. murray has missed a quarter of the season. 

also no way lamar jackson should be on the pro bowl roster over josh Allen. Lamar is really not having a great year. Has 16 tds and 13 ints  And only 2 rushing tds. Meanwhile allen 31-12 and 4 rushing tds. Both teams have the same record and Allen has a better QB rating and QBR  (Allen is 7th and lamar is 15th)

bigger surprise is sweat being in there. I get Bradley as a ST guy. 

5 hours ago, mattwill said:

I've always imagined that Tampa Bay is a bit like a fallen garden of evil.  @Original Sin is a very apt theme for a Bucs fan.

Had an office in Orlando that I had to visit regularly and one time I combined a meeting in Tampa with an Orlando visit.  The eagles nests on the road between the two were phenomenal. Must have been over a dozen.   For that time of year there were young birds in the nests.  Not a huge fan of Tampa, nor Orlando for that matter, but I will always remember that trip.