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Inflation and Shortage Observations

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40 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Yeah, I know what you think  There are lots of people who could do damage if they were POTUS but Trump is in a league of his own.

Never assume to know what anyone thinks. It's the internet.

Being in a league of his own was the appeal. Trump was the result of all recent presidencies. The status quo.

Now you have an electorate increasingly pulling in two opposite directions.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, lynched1 said:

Never assume to know what anyone thinks. It's the internet.

Being in a league of his own was the appeal. Trump was the result of all recent presidencies. The status quo.

Now you have an electorate increasingly pulling in two opposite directions.

 

 

I've read your posts for years.  I know what "lycnhed1" the EMB poster account thinks.  If you're just playing a part in here and you actually think something else IRL then fair enough.

Yeah, I get his appeal.  He took an electorate moving apart and threw gasoline on the situation and lit a MUCH bigger fire.  A massive net negative for the country.  Were there some positives?  Sure but they didn't come close to making up for all the negatives.

22 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

I've read your posts for years.  I know what "lycnhed1" the EMB poster account thinks.  If you're just playing a part in here and you actually think something else IRL then fair enough.

Yeah, I get his appeal.  He took an electorate moving apart and threw gasoline on the situation and lit a MUCH bigger fire.  A massive net negative for the country.  Were there some positives?  Sure but they didn't come close to making up for all the negatives.

I've been posting here for years. Should be easy enough to sort through the contrariness if one is paying attention. Sometimes I do "play the part". Pure entertainment.

He (Trump) threw as much gasline around as any of his opponents have. He appeared out nowhere? In a vacuum?

His main negatives are his unpopularity with the media and his inability to lay off Twitter. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, lynched1 said:

I've been posting here for years. Should be easy enough to sort through the contrariness if one is paying attention. Sometimes I do "play the part". Pure entertainment.

He (Trump) threw as much gasline around as any of his opponents have. He appeared out nowhere? In a vacuum?

His main negatives are his unpopularity with the media and his inability to lay off Twitter. 

 

 

 

But not trying to install himself as dictator, that's a feature, not a bug, right?

3 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

But not trying to install himself as dictator, that's a feature, not a bug, right?

That's a whole other bag of worms no one wants to address yet. 

1 hour ago, lynched1 said:

That's a whole other bag of worms no one wants to address yet. 

Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?

10 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Does anyone know what this is supposed to mean?

Come on, you mean to tell me you've never addressed a "bag of worms" before, you uncultured swine?

9 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

We're gonna get to 3.75-4 dollars a gallon. Dems are gonna call it a win, and it's going to be the "new normal" to continue to push EV. 

Push EV on a platform that cant handle a heat wave, let alone tens of millions of EV's. 

to quote  Bart Scott... Cant WAIT. 

 

8 hours ago, Eaglesfandan said:

Yep it will be $3.99 and people will say, "Oh thank God it isn't $5.50 anymore!"

I think there is a chance for serious volatility over the next coming few years.

Imagine a scenario like this:

Fed continues to tighten given inflation and with the added benefit of messing with Russia and China.

This gives us a recession, which crushes inflation, so suddenly the Fed goes dovish.

The reality in the material world hasn’t changed through all of this though, so with a bunch of money now flowing, commodities skyrocket even higher than they were before.

It’s a scenario I’m keeping in mind over the medium term.

15 hours ago, Bacarty2 said:

We're gonna get to 3.75-4 dollars a gallon. Dems are gonna call it a win, and it's going to be the "new normal" to continue to push EV. 

Push EV on a platform that cant handle a heat wave, let alone tens of millions of EV's. 

to quote  Bart Scott... Cant WAIT. 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

I am usually wrong about most things.  

Yes.

Anyone have any idea what the new definition of a recession is? The actual definition doesn't seem to be doing it for the current administration. 😮

10 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

You're an idiot.

I dont work for bloomberg, I didnt write that article. You see my grammar, you think I'd get hired as a writer. 

Use your brain. 

You believed it enough make a whole fear mongering thread based on an obviously retarded article. I guess bias does that to some people.

And after seeing like three of your posts I have a hard time believing anyone would hire you to do anything.

14 hours ago, lynched1 said:

Anyone have any idea what the new definition of a recession is? The actual definition doesn't seem to be doing it for the current administration. 😮

Political Cartoons by Michael Ramirez

16 hours ago, lynched1 said:

Anyone have any idea what the new definition of a recession is? The actual definition doesn't seem to be doing it for the current administration. 😮

The current administration doesn't even know the definition of what a woman is and you expect them to be clear on recession?  Come on man.

2 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

The current administration doesn't even know the definition of what a woman is and you expect them to be clear on recession?  Come on man.

At least Trump knew what a woman was!  And a man!  Also a camera and a TV!

21 hours ago, lynched1 said:

Anyone have any idea what the new definition of a recession is? The actual definition doesn't seem to be doing it for the current administration. 😮

The administration does not determine when we are in a recession.

2 hours ago, barho said:

The administration does not determine when we are in a recession.

Their policies would like to have a private conversation with you.

https://babylonbee.com/news/joe-biden-signs-dont-say-recession-bill
 

Joe Biden Signs 'Don't Say Recession' Bill

Jul 26, 2022 - BabylonBee.com
 

WASHINGTON, D.C. — President Joe Biden has just signed a bill into law prohibiting everyone in America from using the word "recession." The Economic Integrity Protection Act — also known as the "Don't Say Recession" bill — now threatens to punish any American with the full force of the law for simply uttering the word "recession."

"Come on folks, gotta stop saying 'recession.' It's a dirty word, sweetheart!" said Biden to an old White House intern he mistook for a young White House intern. "My grandmammy used to wash my mouth out with soap for using that word! Watch your mouth, Jack!"

"We tried changing the definition of recession, but if anything it just made people point out Biden's recession even more," said Treasury Secretary and inflation expert Janet Yellen. "Apparently when the price of everything is inflated which causes economic decline, reduced trade, and a fall in GDP for 2 consecutive quarters people start to notice. Weird." Yellen then went back to drafting a new plan to tax McDonald's Dollar Menu items. 

According to sources, those who break the law and use the word "recession" will face up to 10 years in prison, which after inflation, amounts to 17 years.

At publishing time, the Biden administration confirmed the bill has a sunset clause that will take effect if a Republican is ever elected President.

Americans: The economy is awful. Everything is too expensive!

Also Americans:

 

 

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"Why doesn't my manager GET ME????"

17 hours ago, lynched1 said:

Their policies would like to have a private conversation with you.

Again, the administration has NO hand on when a recession is declared.  National Bureau of Economic Research (a private organization) determines it.

Jerome Powell doesn't think we're in a recession.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that statement makes it more or less likely that we are. Just passing it on.

Main thing is it's weird. Job market remains very strong. Stuff just costs more, which sucks, but a lot of that is still owed to supply chain issues lingering way longer than anticipated.

China's continuing Covid issues along with its demographics (they old) seem to be a big factor there.

5 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Jerome Powell doesn't think we're in a recession.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that statement makes it more or less likely that we are. Just passing it on.

Main thing is it's weird. Job market remains very strong. Stuff just costs more, which sucks, but a lot of that is still owed to supply chain issues lingering way longer than anticipated.

China's continuing Covid issues along with its demographics (they old) seem to be a big factor there.

It's a right clusterF to describe what is going on with the economy, but I find it very difficult to say we are in a recession.  It's on its way for sure, but we ain't there yet.

11 minutes ago, dawkins4prez said:

It's a right clusterF to describe what is going on with the economy, but I find it very difficult to say we are in a recession.  It's on its way for sure, but we ain't there yet.

My gut says it's coming but yeah it's a weird place we're in at this moment. 

Seems like an adjustment to a new attitude towards work in this country IMHO. We were making our way toward live to work from work to live, but slowly. COVID accelerated that.

The Fed just raised interest rates another 0.75% yesterday. If lending rates keep going up, the economy will slow down, leading to recession.
Yet inflation keeps going up. The Fed has to raise rates to slow it down or else prices will keep rising, which will lead to less spending and likely recession.
Damned if we do. Damned if we don't.
I think the current inflation is tied to pent-up consumer demand. Everybody stayed home in 2020-21 saving money, and now we all want to spend it in 2022. Excess demand is raising prices. I think the only way out is to let the economy eventually break, then we move on. Hold on folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride next several months.

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