16 hours ago, Eaglesfandan said:

So $20 a gallon by Christmas?

BEFORE OR AFTER THE NUCLEAR WAR?

Just now, dawkins4prez said:

BEFORE OR AFTER THE NUCLEAR WAR?

Jokes on you... we'll be using the barter system.

30 minutes ago, mayanh8 said:

Jokes on you... we'll be using the barter system.

The kids will call it Paleo Crypto.

1 minute ago, dawkins4prez said:

The kids will call it Paleo Crypto.

In such a world, the current generation of useless kids would all be dead. The last one would die claiming that Big Bird was racist for not giving her a hug.

13 minutes ago, vikas83 said:

In such a world, the current generation of useless kids would all be dead. The last one would die claiming that Big Bird was racist for not giving her a hug.

Big Bird is racist, but not for that.

 

For his brief stint with the KKK. Nobody believes he was undercover. He's a giant yellow bird.

On 7/29/2022 at 4:17 PM, JohnSnowsHair said:

I honestly have no idea what the administration is proposing. I didn't expect anything more than a basic competence and mediocrity from Biden, and the challenges it's being tasked to deal with are frankly beyond them.

(FWIW I think Trump would be performing far worse and deflecting blame in a manner that would further divide the nation, so it's still a net positive over the alternative by a long shot. But Biden is just not up to this moment.)

Fortunately our economic engine is strong enough to muddle through crap political leadership and come out reasonably strong. But the Fed needs to get its act together and become the adults in the room they're supposed to be. They need to hold the line on rates and force Washington to pay for its bills or cut spending - or frankly both. Cheap money for too long has led to bad habits that must be broken. And higher rates should help bury MMT.

It’s too late dude. They literally can’t raise rates to any significant level and force the government to balance the books. It’s a mathematical impossibility unless you get some deus ex machina type of economic event.

We roll over about 30% of our debt per year, so every year you’re paying those rate increases on ~$7T. 

Then you look at GDP inputs… C+I+G+(X-M). C and I will implode if you lower G and increase interest rates, and (X-M) is already negative.

There is no way out. We crossed the event horizon long ago.

Not good not good @TEW

 

 

Cramer is such a joke

 

"On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in July after rising 1.3% the prior month, the result of falling energy prices such as gasoline." -WSJ

That is a good thing. It's only one month though. We had a good month earlier in the year but that didn't become a trend.

Year over year inflation is going to stay high until we start getting a few months of low inflation like this. One data point is not a trend but every trend starts with one. The question of whether this is the beginning of the of high inflation won't be answered for months.

And just like that, inflation drops below expectations and my portfolio gets another massive boost.

WINNING

1 hour ago, barho said:

And just like that, inflation drops below expectations and my portfolio gets another massive boost.

WINNING

A whole 0.2% below expectation. We’re still near 40 year high inflation. Not winning. 

Just now, Blazehound said:

A whole 0.2% below expectation. We’re still near 40 year high inflation. Not winning. 

Eh....market seems to like it.

Gas prices have fallen for 57 days in a row.

14 minutes ago, Toastrel said:

Gas prices have fallen for 57 days in a row.

Good news for Biden.

Inflation rate drops to 8.5% in July, but has it peaked? ‘We’re not there yet,’ says economist

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/inflation-rate-drops-in-july-but-cpi-prices-remain-high.html

The rate of inflation was slower than expected in July, offering some hope that inflation is cooling down.

Inflation dropped 0.6% from its June peak, for a year-over-year rate of 8.5%, according to Labor Department data published Wednesday. This was lower than many estimates, including a Bloomberg survey of 44 economists that predicted a rate of 8.7%.

 

The slowing rate of inflation is due in large part to a 7.7% decline in gas prices, but also drops in prices for used vehicles, airline fares and apparel. However, prices remain elevated overall in broad categories like shelter and food. Food prices increased by 1.1% in July, following a 1% gain in June.

Old news, but kind of important, especially if we’re playing arms dealer for Ukraine. 6-9 months and who knows how much money to restart production.

Loving the part where we borrow $4.5B from the Chinese to pay down Ukrainian debt. 

Winning like mofo's over here!

 

 

a lot of emerging markets are on the brink as well. I don’t think most people realize the kind of tightrope the Fed is walking right now.

 

 

Official inflation report comes out tomorrow, but WSJ is expecting flat or even a drop in prices in August: WSJ: Inflation Showed Signs of Easing in Several Industries in August

Quote

Gasoline prices fell sharply in August, airfares dropped and used cars and hotels ebbed, while rent increases also gave hints of slowing, according to private firms that track such data.

Still, food prices continued to soar this past month and prices for a range of goods and services remained much higher than a year earlier, the figures show.

The path of inflation could influence looming decisions by the Federal Reserve about how high to lift interest rates. Inflation could also shape midterm elections as voters assess their pocketbooks.

Looking ahead to a government inflation report to be released on Tuesday, many Wall Street analysts estimate the Labor Department’s overall consumer-price index was unchanged or dropped in August from July. If so, it would mark the second straight month of slower inflation since annual inflation surged to a four-decade high in June.

"We are experiencing a slowdown driven by the decline in fuel prices, but there is still significant upward pressure in such important categories as food, household items and healthcare products,” said Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard Business School professor who in 2008 created a "billion price” index that tracked dollar amounts of online consumer transactions. "We are not out of the woods yet.”

Called PriceStats, the price index—which is managed by State Street Global Markets and generally tracks the CPI—fell in August. The year-over-year increase in the CPI reached 9.1% in June, the highest annual inflation rate since 1981, and ticked down to 8.5% in July.

In some industries, firms report progress working through pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions that have pushed prices higher. Meantime, consumers—particularly in low-income households—are pushing back against high prices by changing their spending habits. Moreover, many retailers have amped up discounting programs to clear inventory of clothing and other items that they overstocked during the pandemic.

"I hesitate to call it a bloodbath, but it’s going to be ugly in terms of the amount of discounting and markdowns,” Richard Hayne, chief executive of Urban Outfitters Inc., said on an earnings call with analysts a month ago.

A leading theme in August was the decline in the price of gasoline. A gallon of unleaded dropped to $3.84 at the end of August from $4.22 at the end of July, a 9% decline, according to the AAA.