10 minutes ago, toolg said:

The Fed just raised interest rates another 0.75% yesterday. If lending rates keep going up, the economy will slow down, leading to recession.
Yet inflation keeps going up. The Fed has to raise rates to slow it down or else prices will keep rising, which will lead to less spending and likely recession.
Damned if we do. Damned if we don't.
I think the current inflation is tied to pent-up consumer demand. Everybody stayed home in 2020-21 saving money, and now we all want to spend it in 2022. Excess demand is raising prices. I think the only way out is to let the economy eventually break, then we move on. Hold on folks, it's going to be a bumpy ride next several months.

Recessions are part of the economy.  They happen from time to time.  Those that can weather them turn out to be far better on the other side.  Those that can't and are already over extended tend to pay the price. This is why its always good to live within your means.

32 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

I saw it passing that this is the first time in history the fed has raised rates 4 times in one calendar year.... and it's only July.

Just wait until winter comes. The Holidays. Supply chain. Realizing you have to spend out the wazooo for your propane/oil cost to heat your home.

Gone' be fun

I bought a jet boat straight cash and fill it with premium every weekend.  

41 minutes ago, Bacarty2 said:

I saw it passing that this is the first time in history the fed has raised rates 4 times in one calendar year.... and it's only July.

Just wait until winter comes. The Holidays. Supply chain. Realizing you have to spend out the wazooo for your propane/oil cost to heat your home.

Gone' be fun

Yup. 10 and 11 dollar a gallon gas at the pumps as well, right?

23 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Jerome Powell doesn't think we're in a recession.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that statement makes it more or less likely that we are. Just passing it on.

Main thing is it's weird. Job market remains very strong. Stuff just costs more, which sucks, but a lot of that is still owed to supply chain issues lingering way longer than anticipated.

China's continuing Covid issues along with its demographics (they old) seem to be a big factor there.

We are officially in a recession, it’s just that it’s been 40 years since we had an inflation driven one. Two quarters of negative growth is what it is.

The fed will always signal strength and stability. I don’t mean that as a knock on them because you don’t want them spooking markets. It is what it is. Just take what they say with a giant grain of salt. It’s the same institution that had Bernanke saying the housing market is strong heading into the financial crisis.

As far as supply chain issues and inflation, something to keep in mind is that consumers got a huge jolt of spending power from the stimi checks, and basically all income levels have about 25% more cash on hand in their checking account than they did before COVID. So the consumer still has some dry powder left to cope with inflation, but I’m thinking once that cash is spent the economy could get thrown into a quick deflationary spiral as suddenly higher costs from inputs price people out of discretionary purchases. Or maybe the consumer is now going to keep higher savings? That would be interesting.

The reaction to that would determine a lot, but if the government goes for more stimulus, we could go from high inflation, to deflation, back into high inflation pretty quickly.

On China… they increasing have unemployment among their youth, which is really concerning from a structural view. You’re right about their demographics — China has been a huge buoy to the global economy and them flipping negative could be pretty catastrophic.

Interesting times…

10 minutes ago, TEW said:

We are officially in a recession, it’s just that it’s been 40 years since we had an inflation driven one. Two quarters of negative growth is what it is.

The fed will always signal strength and stability. I don’t mean that as a knock on them because you don’t want them spooking markets. It is what it is. Just take what they say with a giant grain of salt. It’s the same institution that had Bernanke saying the housing market is strong heading into the financial crisis.

As far as supply chain issues and inflation, something to keep in mind is that consumers got a huge jolt of spending power from the stimi checks, and basically all income levels have about 25% more cash on hand in their checking account than they did before COVID. So the consumer still has some dry powder left to cope with inflation, but I’m thinking once that cash is spent the economy could get thrown into a quick deflationary spiral as suddenly higher costs from inputs price people out of discretionary purchases. Or maybe the consumer is now going to keep higher savings? That would be interesting.

The reaction to that would determine a lot, but if the government goes for more stimulus, we could go from high inflation, to deflation, back into high inflation pretty quickly.

On China… they increasing have unemployment among their youth, which is really concerning from a structural view. You’re right about their demographics — China has been a huge buoy to the global economy and them flipping negative could be pretty catastrophic.

Interesting times…

TEW's got jokes

1 hour ago, we_gotta_believe said:

TEW's got jokes

I agree it’s unlikely. But the last stimulus checks were distributed March 2021. And even the lowest quartile of earners still have 25% more cash on average than they did EOY 2019.

16 minutes ago, TEW said:

I agree it’s unlikely. But the last stimulus checks were distributed March 2021. And even the lowest quartile of earners still have 25% more cash on average than they did EOY 2019.

Assuming that stat is even accurate, pent up demand is still being purged. Give it another year.

1 hour ago, TEW said:

I agree it’s unlikely. But the last stimulus checks were distributed March 2021. And even the lowest quartile of earners still have 25% more cash on average than they did EOY 2019.

I find that hard to believe. Smokes and Miller lite are cheap, but the stimi checks weren't THAT big. If they have cash on hand it's unlikely to be sourced back to stimulus money, and unless the poors suddenly found the discipline to save money I'd have to question how a few grand would hang out in their bank accounts this long.

These are people who by and large aren't known for fiscal discipline. Not all of course, plenty may be just temporary poor as they climb and have a bit more sense, but enough to make 25% more on average in savings? Hmmm...

 

 

Seems appropriate....

Welcome to the "not a recession" recession.

 

2 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Assuming that stat is even accurate, pent up demand is still being purged. Give it another year.

 

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I find that hard to believe. Smokes and Miller lite are cheap, but the stimi checks weren't THAT big. If they have cash on hand it's unlikely to be sourced back to stimulus money, and unless the poors suddenly found the discipline to save money I'd have to question how a few grand would hang out in their bank accounts this long.

These are people who by and large aren't known for fiscal discipline. Not all of course, plenty may be just temporary poor as they climb and have a bit more sense, but enough to make 25% more on average in savings? Hmmm...

 

The checks weren’t that big, I agree. But we’re talking about percentages here. If low income earners averaged $800 in their checking account pre pandemic, and now they have $1000, there you go… not much of a difference in absolute terms, but big in percentage terms. And for a low income earner who makes ~$25K a year, an extra $200 is (sadly) kind of significant.

I think "pent up demand” is overblown. If you look at Prime Day, it was huge. The consumer is still buying, but being very selective and looking for deals. The "animal spirits” are actually pretty restrained given that people are sitting on extra cash.

This is the most recent information I could find publicly available on short notice (through March of this year, has declined a bit since then):

 

decent read if anyone is so inclined:

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/research/household-income-spending/household-pulse-cash-balances-through-march-2022

Amazon just reported some solid sales numbers, indicative of pretty strong demand. Not sure that's the best example.

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Amazon just reported some solid sales numbers, indicative of pretty strong demand. Not sure that's the best example.

Prime day was record setting, but the consumer was being tactical, looking for bargains. So what you’re seeing is the consumer being selective, looking for deals, and maintaining higher than normal cash on hand.

It’s a big departure from  2020 and 2021 when the stimulus checks were quickly spent without much restraint.

For example:

Data from both sources indicates inflation running at levels not seen in 40 years played a significant role in how consumers shopped Prime Day this year. According to Numerator, 33% of surveyed consumers bought something they were waiting to buy at lower price, while 17% stocked up on items that were on sale. 

Inflation did not solely produce positive sales results, as 28% of respondents said they passed on an item that was a great deal but not a necessity. About one in six (16%) respondents said inflation had no impact on their Prime Day shopping.

……

Following strong growth over the two Prime Days, spend slowed when the discounts faded, as more normative pricing trends returned, and consumers were no longer motivated by heavy discounting.

https://chainstoreage.com/prime-day-update-discounting-produces-record-results

Discounts or not, those year over year numbers looked pretty good. Market seems to agree, share price is up 13% after hours. You could probably pick any other major retailer and it would be a better example there.

On 7/27/2022 at 5:07 PM, JohnSnowsHair said:

Jerome Powell doesn't think we're in a recession.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that statement makes it more or less likely that we are. Just passing it on.

Main thing is it's weird. Job market remains very strong. Stuff just costs more, which sucks, but a lot of that is still owed to supply chain issues lingering way longer than anticipated.

China's continuing Covid issues along with its demographics (they old) seem to be a big factor there.

Are you ignoring the layoffs all over the place?

25 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Are you ignoring the layoffs all over the place?

Excuse me, where?  And don’t tell me about the fintech layoffs.  That crap was nonsense to begin with.  Overall job market is hot.  My company can’t find people 

41 minutes ago, ToastJenkins said:

Are you ignoring the layoffs all over the place?

There are layoffs, but "all over the place?"

Companies still can't find people. Open job requisitions remain incredibly high. 

There are certainly some sectors that are suffering and so there's isolated layoffs, but workers are finding new positions within days.

4 hours ago, we_gotta_believe said:

Discounts or not, those year over year numbers looked pretty good. Market seems to agree, share price is up 13% after hours. You could probably pick any other major retailer and it would be a better example there.

The example is the sales of prime day and consumer behavior, not the company as a whole.

"Employers are beginning to respond to financial pressures and slowing demand by cutting costs. While the labor market is still tight, that tightness may begin to ease in the next few months."

 

Thanks Biden!

10 hours ago, barho said:

Excuse me, where?  And don’t tell me about the fintech layoffs.  That crap was nonsense to begin with.  Overall job market is hot.  My company can’t find people 

How about Ford that obvious enough for you?

happening in biotech too

6 hours ago, TEW said:

The example is the sales of prime day and consumer behavior, not the company as a whole.

A single day worth of sales to represent consumer sentiment in a sector over the past couple years? Mmmkay.

32 minutes ago, toolg said:

Thanks Biden!