44 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Just to cycle back to the Mahomes depth of target vs. Hurts' depth of target discussion...  The mean value is often what is reported for 'average', but there are two other measures of 'average' that are often overlooked, but are frankly more meaningful in a lot of cases.  Those values aren't skewed by a single outlier, unlike the mean.

Mahomes had 39 pass attempts.  The median distance was 8 yards down field.
Hurts had 32 pass attempts.  The median distance was 4 yards down field.

Mahomes' mode distance was 10 yards +/- a 1/2 yard.   (5 attempts)
Hurts' mode distance was 0 yards +/- 1/2 of the LOS. (7 attempts)

 

Now, the Air Yards completed value might look at little closer, because Hurts hit on the 55 yarder to Brown.  And Mahomes missed on his two deepest throws of 35 and 36 yards.  But, I would say that there was more concern from the Cardinals about being beat deeper than the Lions had versus Hurts.    And because so many throws from Hurts are so close to the LOS, teams are going to be very comfortable crowding the LOS, keeping a safety either in the box, or very close.  One deep throw isn't going to be enough to pull them back.  He's going to have to do that consistently to back them off.   And he's going to need to push the ball down field more to other receivers as well to get them to really respect him as a passer.

This is the kind of meaningless analysis that ignores scheme.

RPO throws are going to be close to the LOS for obvious reasons, the throw has to come out before the OL get downfield. So unless you account for the RPOs, then analyze each passing play to determine if there were open targets downfield (you want to reward a QB for throwing into coverage?), those numbers are useless. Which is why metrics have become more sophisticated, but useful metrics are more labor intensive.

1 minute ago, Saltpeter said:

I've seen Hurts play like a real QB. Not consistently, obviously, and I don't believe we'll ever see it consistently, but I can at least talk myself into thinking he could get hot during a playoff run because I've seen flashes.

I have zero faith in Gannon. None. He's shown nothing. He's the biggest question mark on the team BY FAR despite having the personnel to be a top 10 unit.

There are things that can easily be fixed without Gannon really getting more creative which we know wont happen.

tackling can improve (at least a little)

Jordan Davis can play more.

The entire defense gains more experience playing with all of its new starters.

 

Those things will make a difference, without relying on Gannon to come up with any brilliant blitz schemes, or start incorporating any games up front with the DL. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

3 days now removed from a win where Hurts played very well and was a major reason for the win and the blog is now proclaiming that he was a "God awful QB" in the game. 

 

This might just be the most detached from reality echo chamber that you can view on the internet right now. 

He did that against the #29 defense in yards allowed and the #31 defense in points allowed last year.

You can say they added all the talent in the world, but until they perform otherwise, they are that same defense.

4 minutes ago, austinfan said:

This is the kind of meaningless analysis that ignores scheme.

RPO throws are going to be close to the LOS for obvious reasons, the throw has to come out before the OL get downfield. So unless you account for the RPOs, then analyze each passing play to determine if there were open targets downfield (you want to reward a QB for throwing into coverage?), those numbers are useless. Which is why metrics have become more sophisticated, but useful metrics are more labor intensive.

Question, did the Eagles run an RPO offense with Nick Foles when they won the Super Bowl ??

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

This is the kind of meaningless analysis that ignores scheme.

RPO throws are going to be close to the LOS for obvious reasons, the throw has to come out before the OL get downfield. So unless you account for the RPOs, then analyze each passing play to determine if there were open targets downfield (you want to reward a QB for throwing into coverage?), those numbers are useless. Which is why metrics have become more sophisticated, but useful metrics are more labor intensive.

RPO is a simplistic offense that we have to run, because we can't entrust our QB to take a 5-7 step drop, allow routes to develop and progress through 2-3 reads to make deeper throws.

Any deep throw he does attempt is a shotgun snap, throw it up to the first read running a 9 route. 

9 minutes ago, austinfan said:

This is the kind of meaningless analysis that ignores scheme.

RPO throws are going to be close to the LOS for obvious reasons, the throw has to come out before the OL get downfield. So unless you account for the RPOs, then analyze each passing play to determine if there were open targets downfield (you want to reward a QB for throwing into coverage?), those numbers are useless. Which is why metrics have become more sophisticated, but useful metrics are more labor intensive.

Okay .... then why was Hurts' accuracy so crappy (18/32 = 56%) while Mahomes' was so good (30/39 = 77%)?

I know you're not going to say 'because Hurts can't throw', so I'm curious as to the other reasons.

7 minutes ago, downundermike said:

Question, did the Eagles run an RPO offense with Nick Foles when they won the Super Bowl ??

yep. Doesnt have to be a throw close to the LOS. If he is reading the safety and knows he is going to come down to fill against the run, then he knows there will be a single high safety giving him like a 1 on 1 for a deep shot.

 

1 hour ago, HazletonEagle said:

yep. Doesnt have to be a throw close to the LOS. If he is reading the safety and knows he is going to come down to fill against the run, then he knows there will be a single high safety giving him like a 1 on 1 for a deep shot.

 

Exactly.  @austinfan Nick Foles had no problem getting the ball down the field running an RPO offense, with no threat of him running, against playoff defenses.

 

Hurts last weekend

 

 

Nick Foles Super Bowl run

 

 

@mattwill you asked for examples of this, there has been some recent ones but I have been busy.

Here is @austinfan being pressed on his opinion, and of course, crickets.

JT O'Sullivan on Jalen Hurts in week one - I was really excited about it. I thought there were some really nice throws and we saw some significant and substantial improvement from his game in terms of being able to throw from within the pocket. 

I don’t get to interact with many Eagles fans down here. Are people at each other’s throats up in PA in the Hurts debate? And is it lopsided one way or the other?

21 hours ago, Utebird said:

So I live in Kansas and have been working at the state fair all week, this dudes wearing a cowboy hat and a Prescott jersey and I say to him, Bold choice wearing that here, and he looks at me and says, it's going to be a repeat...

🤔 A repeat of what??? Another first round playoff exit???

Cowboy fans are dumb as hell.

On a positive note the vendor across from me is from Philly, she's cool as hell, when she told me she was from Philly she started telling me stories about the night she was working during the super bowl in Philly and how crazy it was, she also told me eagles fans in Philly dont say see you tomorrow or good night,they just say, go iggles!!! So each night we leave we say Go iggles to each other😁

Love it, though it's usually go Birds from my experience. I was at Disney a few years back and wearing a jersey and ran into a bunch of people from Philly and they noticed I had a birthday sticker on (wife was a cast member and made me wear it) and instead of Happy Birthday, they all sang me Fly Eagles Fly!

It's basically a group on this board. That bend over backward to support their pre-conceived conclusion.

Some of us prefer to see how the season unfolds.

3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

It's basically a group on this board. That bend over backward to support their pre-conceived conclusion.

Some of us prefer to see how the season unfolds.

And you are part of the group that defends the team, especially Howie to a fault, and when facts are presented that counter your opinion, you run away and hide and don't want to discuss.

3 minutes ago, austinfan said:

It's basically a group on this board. That bend over backward to support their pre-conceived conclusion.

Some of us prefer to see how the season unfolds.

Nonsense.  Even the national media narrative on Hurts is "they've put all the pieces around him; now we will see if he progresses enough to be the franchise QB"

Many anonymous NFL insiders (coaches, coordinators, GMs) have expressed doubts -- "there's a cap", etc.

5 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Nonsense.  Even the national media narrative on Hurts is "they've put all the pieces around him; now we will see if he progresses enough to be the franchise QB"

Many anonymous NFL insiders (coaches, coordinators, GMs) have expressed doubts -- "there's a cap", etc.

Exactly.  There is a segment of the blog, we jokingly call them pillars, that think the entire purpose of the blog is to blindly follow the Eagles, and they have no faults.

4 minutes ago, austinfan said:

It's basically a group on this board. That bend over backward to support their pre-conceived conclusion.

Some of us prefer to see how the season unfolds.

For the record, I want Hurts to succeed. He seems like a good dude, but I never saw him get past his first read in that game (and he's pretty bad about staring down that read). Some of that seemed to be due to the blitzing and some was due to his predilection to run. I don't have a problem with designed QB runs, per se, but I would like to see them as a change up once the pass has been established. If he can't show that, when he does have a decent pocket, he can work through his progressions, then I don't think we can say he's improved enough to turn the team over to him, unless we just don't see better options. If he grows during the season, great! If not, I'd rather go with someone new than pay him big money.

Expanding on my post from earlier re: more concerned with the D than Hurts

I am not willing to give Gannon much leash for this season. 

I give it 3 more weeks max to see improved tackling, more Jordan Davis, and better red zone play.

Over the next 3 weeks I think we should be able to hold Minnesota to 24 or less, Washington to 20 or less, and the Jaguars to 17 or less. We have the talent to do that. Thats not a very hard 3 game stretch.

As we know, Hurts is not the answer. And he hasnt shown enough improvement over the summer to week 1 to make any meaningful difference for the offense. If anything, giving him a target to lock on to has made him worse.

The promising prospect of a vastly improved D with all the new personnel was our only shot at really having a chance to improve our record, and become stronger contenders for a deeper playoff run. We will get farther from the defensive improvement we should have made than we will from the marginal, if any, improvement Hurts has made.

So we cant give this long.

There is a fantastic D Coordinator probably in our building as we speak not officially employed by the team. You need to get him in sooner than later if we are going to make a chance so the D can begin progressing in his system before the end of the year. 

27 minutes ago, Texas Eagle said:

I don’t get to interact with many Eagles fans down here. Are people at each other’s throats up in PA in the Hurts debate? And is it lopsided one way or the other?

Not really.  It's mostly the few in this Blog.  Most fans either support Hurts or have a "jury is still out/wait and see" opinion.  

10 hours ago, ManuManu said:

They wore down because they couldn’t get a stop on third or fourth down. Maddox getting his ankles broken by Goff, Slay dropping an easy pick and Swift picking up a first down on a third-and-10 draw really stand out as huge failures.

They wore down because Gannon is coaching at a high school level. Everything downhill. Just watched one series where the Lions drove down the field and the only thing stopping them was Goff’s inaccuracy.  4/2 (the SAM is playing edge) in basically a Wide alignment two gap, the back seven in quarters virtually the entire series.  No disguises, no shifts, stunts. Nothing but lineup displaying the defense every single play.  Everything downhill.  The OC is playing chess, Gannon is playing checkers.  

He does realize he is coaching against NFL QBs not high school QBs doesn’t he.  Basically five on four blocking find the holes.   I had more hope for this defense by adding a LB that can cover in White, a pass rusher in Reddick playing SAM, a DT in Davis and a CB that excels in zone match in Bradberry.  Instead, we give it to a guy coaching adults into lineups at a high school level still.  I blamed it on the talent last year but I think it’s Gannon. McMullen is right about the sloppy tackling but wrong about the scheme comment.  

5 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Expanding on my post from earlier re: more concerned with the D than Hurts

I am not willing to give Gannon much leash for this season. 

I give it 3 more weeks max to see improved tackling, more Jordan Davis, and better red zone play.

Over the next 3 weeks I think we should be able to hold Minnesota to 24 or less, Washington to 20 or less, and the Jaguars to 17 or less. We have the talent to do that. Thats not a very hard 3 game stretch.

I don't think the talent is as good as you think it is.

We have Cox and Hargrave at DT, one is washed and the other only plays well in spurts.  We have Davis, but will he play well if he plays more.

At DE you have Graham who looks cooked, Sweat who only plays well when he doesn't play to much, and a bunch of unknowns.

At pass rusher you have Reddick, while his sack totals look good, he gets them in bunches and has tons of games with no sacks.

LB, TJ Edwards being your best LB is not a good thing.

Secondary, Slay is older, Bradberry a 1 year rental, and we need two new safeties for the future.

 

7 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

Over the next 3 weeks I think we should be able to hold Minnesota to 24 or less, Washington to 20 or less, and the Jaguars to 17 or less. We have the talent to do that. Thats not a very hard 3 game stretch.

Me thinks you may have to take blood pressure medication in your future.  My game prediction is Eagles 28, Vikings 24 -- but that is only based on the Eagles defense historically showing up better at home.  Their effort of last week will see MIN put up 40+, WASH put up 30+ .... The Jags might be 17 or less; they're not good.

2 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Agreed.  No cause for concern, yet.    But just a few years ago, there was all kinds of belly aching about how many targets Ertz was getting.  And he wasn't getting as many disproportionately as Brown did on Sunday.   We'll see how this progresses.    But, the word out of camp was about how many targets were going to Brown.  And in the only PS action there was... apparently there was a concentrated effort NOT to go to Brown.   Then, in the first game... bam, all Brown, all the time.   

I get targeting your big offseason acquisition and $100M man.  It only makes sense, especially as effective as it was on Sunday.  But, moving forward, there needs to be a concerted effort to be more efficient at spreading the ball around a bit more, for a ton of reasons, not the least of which is... the offense would be more productive with more receivers being involved.   Even back when the GOAT was playing, the TEs, RBs and even the other WRs got significant targets... even in a less pass happy era.

May be reading too much into this. Smith didn’t do a lot of his wide cuts against the Lions.  He did have a groin in TC.  May be not test it too much when Brown is killing them. 

18 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Of course not.  The move to land Genard Avery was an absolute coup. Howie duped another team.  Who could he have foreseen that he would bust here and never see significant snaps on the field?

My point exactly. 

17 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

Not really.  It's mostly the few in this Blog.  Most fans either support Hurts or have a "jury is still out/wait and see" opinion.  

What's there to wait and see? He just put up the exact same stats as his very first start, and looked very much like the exact same player. How long are we supposed to wait? 

18 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Of course not.  The move to land Genard Avery was an absolute coup. Howie duped another team. 

Not sure what the absolute coup is.  We traded a 4th round pick for a 5th round talent, and got about 5th round production out of him.