38 minutes ago, mattwill said:

What is it about Skoronski that you like as a match to Stoutland? Heis probably the most NFL-ready OT, so high floor, but his measurables, especially his short arms, make him more like Driscoll than like Lane.  The drop off in terms of NFL-readiness from Skoronski to Paris Johnson is minimal, and Johnson's measurables (and therefore his upside ceiling) are considerably better.  Broderick Jones has the best athleticism and measurables, but his experience level as a starter is minimal. At 6 feet 4 inches I'd like to see him be a bit taller.

Like jones alot

10 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

The eagles franchise has been one of the most successful franchises in that time span. Not sure that it "has” to change anytime soon.

Yeah they are far from perfect and mistakes have been made with dead cap and bad picks etc but they manage to put a good product on the field much more often than not. They certainly aren't above criticism but keep it in perspective

15 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

The eagles franchise has been one of the most successful franchises in that time span. Not sure that it "has” to change anytime soon.

But their defensive drafting philosophy isn’t why they’ve been that successful. It’s been one of their flaws during that time. Maybe they’d be even more successful if thru adjusted their defensive drafting a bit.

Just now, Sack that QB said:

But their defensive drafting philosophy isn’t why they’ve been that successful. It’s been one of their flaws during that time. Maybe they’d be even more successful if thru adjusted their defensive drafting a bit.

That's definitely a fair point. They've been pretty bad at drafting defense

9 hours ago, Mike31mt said:

Or Maddox at safety.  Id just as soon plan to move on from him. You cant rely on him at all and hes just average 

Granted the sample size is small, but Maddox should have never went back to CB after his rookie season. 

8 hours ago, pgcd3 said:

Yeah they are far from perfect and mistakes have been made with dead cap and bad picks etc but they manage to put a good product on the field much more often than not. They certainly aren't above criticism but keep it in perspective

I don’t believe for the most part that mistakes have been made with dead cap.  When you look at the $46.5 million, Brandon Brooks was a mistake that added $9.8 million of avoidable Dead Cap that "bought”nothing.  However, the Cox Dead Cap of $15.4 million and the Hargrave Dead Cap of $12.0 million and the Bradberry Dead Cap of $5.0 million all "bought” assets of value.  Without that $32.4 million the 2022 team would not have been as competitive.  No Joseph.  No Suh.  Probably no Bradberry.  Every time Howie needed to write a check he was able to do so.  Further, that $32.4 million probably also "bought” between one and four Comp Picks in the 2024 Draft. If the Dead Cap money was squandered, I would agree with you, but Howie invested that money wisely.

The topic of bad picks is incredibly complex. There is an interesting article I will chase down and append to this comment that looks at Draft pick success across the whole NFL.  It is really eye opening.  EDIT: it made more sense to post the interesting article in a comment of its own.  You can go to it by clicking HERE.

51 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

But their defensive drafting philosophy isn’t why they’ve been that successful. It’s been one of their flaws during that time. Maybe they’d be even more successful if thru adjusted their defensive drafting a bit.

You are looking for perfection in an imperfect milieu.

Embiid shooting 1 for 13 right now.

Just now, mattwill said:

You are looking for perfection in an imperfect milieu.

I'm not at all. I'm just asking them to invest in other positions in the first round when they pick defense, other than the DL for a change. I think that small change alone will improve their drafting. Like I mentioned previously, I think a big reason they've drafted poorly on defense is because they force picks at DL. Maybe their defensive picks would be better if they didn't lock in on DL so much.

We want Billy!  We want Billy!

 

4 hours ago, Sack that QB said:

It's because the Eagles are too line focused on the defensive side of the ball. I believe in building in the trenches first too, but it shouldn't be a golden rule. I can't think of the last Eagles first round defensive pick that wasn't a lineman. They're always linemen. And I think they value it too much almost where they'll take a good lineman prospect over a great DB prospect. They need to diversify what positions on defense they're willing to take in the first round. It's almost like they have an automatic "no" on LB and safety in round 1. Which is asinine. I would prefer to go DL if the guy is right. But if LB is the best player on the board, take a LB.

Disagree. I think their investment in the trenches has led to 3 Superbowl appearances and 1 Superbowl win.  Unless you are surefire getting Ed Reed or Brian Urlacher, there is no way I am picking an equally talented S or LB over DE or DT. 

S or LB just don't make enough plays in the modern NFL to justify picking in the first round.  The rules have basically neutered the enforcer S and it is a rarity to see a 3 down LB anymore.  

The DL can still get after the QB (unless they play on some crap field in AZ) and can shut down the run.  Hence, the value in DL for too end players and the devaluation of the other positions.  

Now, CB one could argue has equal value to DL.  Sure, the idiot refs are going to get involved at various times in what they choose to allow.  But, overall, a good CB can force the QB to target other WRs with good coverage.

13 minutes ago, Cliftoma said:

Disagree. I think their investment in the trenches has led to 3 Superbowl appearances and 1 Superbowl win.  Unless you are surefire getting Ed Reed or Brian Urlacher, there is no way I am picking an equally talented S or LB over DE or DT. 

S or LB just don't make enough plays in the modern NFL to justify picking in the first round.  The rules have basically neutered the enforcer S and it is a rarity to see a 3 down LB anymore.  

The DL can still get after the QB (unless they play on some crap field in AZ) and can shut down the run.  Hence, the value in DL for too end players and the devaluation of the other positions.  

Now, CB one could argue has equal value to DL.  Sure, the idiot refs are going to get involved at various times in what they choose to allow.  But, overall, a good CB can force the QB to target other WRs with good coverage.

Depends. Hypothetically, I think the Eagles would take an 80/100 graded DL over an 88/100 graded safety. Or whatever grading system they use, you get the premise. And by strategizing that way, you dilute your overall talent level. And in the end we've seen the Eagles draft a bunch of mediocre defensive linemen, be thin in the secondary, and have to supplement all over the defense in free agency. Maybe if they took BPA at other positions they normally don't like to draft in the first round, they'd nail more picks, shore up more positions.

If the talent level is equal I'd lean DL. I think they do it to their detriment though.

32 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I'm not at all. I'm just asking them to invest in other positions in the first round when they pick defense, other than the DL for a change. I think that small change alone will improve their drafting. Like I mentioned previously, I think a big reason they've drafted poorly on defense is because they force picks at DL. Maybe their defensive picks would be better if they didn't lock in on DL so much.

If they didn't draft DL in the 1st then they'd have to basically draft CB.  

I don't think they're taking Safety or LB in round 1.

I'd rather they invest in the DL and fill the 2nd and 3rd levels of the defense with FA pickups.  You can get a good LB or CB in rounds 3 and 4 but I don't totally trust them to do so.

49 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I'm not at all. I'm just asking them to invest in other positions in the first round when they pick defense, other than the DL for a change. I think that small change alone will improve their drafting. Like I mentioned previously, I think a big reason they've drafted poorly on defense is because they force picks at DL. Maybe their defensive picks would be better if they didn't lock in on DL so much.

It might and it might not.  The graph below shows 1st Round "Hit Rate" by position.  As you can see only three out of eight Interior D-Line players drafted in the 1st Round are "hits" but 5 out of eight OTs are hits and 4 out of 8 OGs are hits.  Edge players are a bit better than interior D-line players, but still with a less than 50% hit rate.  The whole article Assessing First Round Hit Rate at Every NFL Position can be seen HERE

Another really good article on the Draft is The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1 — Round by Round 

What data was used?

A comprehensive database was built using Pro Football Focus’ draft data with Over the Cap’s contract data to understand the difference between draft picks’ first contracts and their second contracts if they receive one. The draft data is from 2010-2017. Recent years were excluded to not generate inaccurate insights due to the picks still being on their rookie contracts. 

How do we define success?

Determining a successful draft pick is both objective and subjective. Viewing it from a purely nominal value, a metric was calculated to determine a successful pick. This metric is known as the SC Pay Ratio, which refers to the second contract pay ratio. It takes the amount of money guaranteed in the second contract and compares it to the guaranteed money from the first contract. 

In general, a player receiving more guaranteed money in their second contract has performed better than their pick position suggests. The data is broken down into whether the second contract comes from the same team or an alternative team. 

It is fascinating, given past discussions here in the Blog, in which the metrics used to evaluate Draft success identified any Eagles draftee who went on to succeed for other teams was "a miss" Using that criteria (for discussion purposes) the first three bars in the graph represent "misses" because the drafted player moved on to another team after teir rookie contract came to an end.  For the 4th bar, 1st Round picks who signed na second contract with their drafting team, only 3 out of every 10 1st Round picks took that "successful pick" step.

Impatient to see the coordinator positions filled.  Impacting the draft board and free agent/extensions at this point. Fact that they haven’t interviewed any OC candidates suggest either Patullo or Johnson gets the job but who are the replacement candidates for their positions? If Wilson is the DC, there are a lot of defensive positions that need filling. Curious on LB coach and pass defense coordinator. 

It feels like Jim Leonhard may have been their guy.

They're probably regrouping a bit. I'm guessing Desai ends up being the DC.

6 hours ago, Sack that QB said:

Ike Reese made a good point on WIP. Almost all the Eagles good draft picks have been on the offensive side. He asked their best defensive draft pick of the last 5 years and it's probably Josh Sweat, which says a lot. This draft looks to be heavy on defense for them. Time to get some young home grown studs on that side of the ball so they don't have to rely on trades and signings. This is why I want them to focus on CB. It's a good CB draft, they have a chance to really shore up that unit this year with young talent.

I have zero issue with another Lito/Sheldon style draft combo. 

4 hours ago, ToastJenkins said:

Witherspoon and porter

skoronski

wilson is my prime target

murphy i am kinda on the fence

I too have Tyree Wilson at the top of my list. Option 2 is Witherspoon. I can’t get there on Porter at 10. I’d go Gonzalez over him. 

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

It might and it might not.  The graph below shows 1st Round "Hit Rate" by position.  As you can see only three out of eight Interior D-Line players drafted in the 1st Round are "hits" but 5 out of eight OTs are hits and 4 out of 8 OGs are hits.  Edge players are a bit better than interior D-line players, but still with a less than 50% hit rate.  The whole article Assessing First Round Hit Rate at Every NFL Position can be seen HERE

 

Eagles are much better at drafting OT, TE, and surprisingly DT, but they are on par for all the other positions with those averages in your chart above except for DE they are a good bit worse off. This is for all rounds, not just 1st rounders.

 

I have kind of a rough chart I've put together over the years of Eagles draft picks. I score the players on how many years they have been designated a starter, number of pro bowls, all pros, and the number of games they have played in over their career, not just with the Eagles. I basically add this all up and a player is given a score. Depending on the round they were drafted in their score has different threshold to declare them a hit or miss. For instance, on my chart Brandon Boykin has a score of 1.92 and is a hit, while Jalen Reagor has a player score of 2.84 but is a miss. Reagor was boosted with 2 years as being a starter, while Boykin didn't start, but played in far more games than Reagor. Reagor being a 1st round pick would need to hit a higher player score, while Boykin being a 4th rounder has a lower threshold for his player score to be a hit. I typically don't assign hit or miss for the last 2 drafts, feel a player needs 3 full seasons before they can mostly be graded. Those not graded are N/A, but there's some exceptions to that rule like the 2021 draft with DeVonta Smith, Landon Dickerson, Milton Williams, and Kenny Gainwell are already labeled hits. No one from 2022 will probably be graded this off-season since almost none of them played this year.

Since 2010, this is my chart:

Offense (top) vs Defense (bottom)

Position

 

There's several players that are labeled hits and not with the Eagles for a good portion of their careers, like Jordan Poyer, Jordan Hicks, Mack Holins, etc.

28 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

It feels like Jim Leonhard may have been their guy.

They're probably regrouping a bit. I'm guessing Desai ends up being the DC.

I think nit may come down to Minter or Wilson.  Gary Patterson is a consultant for UT.  Would love to have him in that role for the Eagles. 

30 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

It feels like Jim Leonhard may have been their guy.

They're probably regrouping a bit. I'm guessing Desai ends up being the DC.

I think that came from Leonhard’s camp and the reporter was fed the "mutual” decision and hip surgery stuff to save a little face. 

6 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

I think nit may come down to Minter or Wilson.  Gary Patterson is a consultant for UT.  Would love to have him in that role for the Eagles. 

Kevin Minter is a sneaky possibility. That would be interesting.

I have this feeling that extensions will be announced around the beginning of free agency. With players being cut prior being emphasized.  Basically no cost free agents. 

13 minutes ago, schuy7 said:

Kevin Minter is a sneaky possibility. That would be interesting.

Jesse.