5 minutes ago, bitbased said:

1 hour ago, bpac55 said:

Jalen Carter has been red flag after red flag since before the combine.  You have oeople from across the football world saying these things and I haven't really seen anyone come to his defense.  Nothing about him says he's a can't miss prospect.  Now, I know a DT can impact a game in many ways besides stats but his production is garbage compared to other players at the same position and while Warren Sapp is a HOF player, maybe are talking about Carter like he's on the same level.  He isn't.

-Carter played in 35 games in his career.  He had 44 tackles, 6 sacks and 18.5 TFL.  Now, the positive I take away from that is that 42% of his tackles were TFL

-Let's compare that to Warren Sapp, another player with red flags coming out of college.  Over 3 years, Sapp had 176 tackles, 19.5 sacks.  Sapp nearly quadroopled Carter's production.

-Calijah Kancey played in 1 less game than Carter and had 52 tackles, 16 sacks and 34.5 TFL.  66% of his tackles were TFL.

-Carter appeared to be lazy and winded in games which continued in his offseason workouts.  Kancey plays wtih extreme intensity and he tested the same way.  

Give me the guy who produced, played hard and tested at the top of his position 10 times out of 10.

 

 

Someone made an interesting point on Jalen: you have to look at the per-snap production. Georgia has a loaded Dline that rotates constantly through a game. Additionally, they were often up by 30-40 points in the third quarter; he didn’t see much time in the second half for a lot of the season.

Had he played at Kentucky or Ole Miss or Miss State it’d be different. So you can pick any other full time starting DT in this class and they’ll probably have higher cumulative stats… but that doesn’t mean they’re better.

27 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

This feeds into the discussion of a system QB.  Does the NFL feel like Lamar Jackson transformed the Ravens with his talent, or do they feel the Ravens built an offense around what he does well and minimized or hid what he can't do?  Greg Roman built an offense that was extremely hard to defend -- for a time.  

Jackson has yielded diminishing returns, even if his injury history is ignored.  He went from 36 TD, 6 INT in his MVP season (where he was extremely efficient throwing the ball as well as dynamic running the ball) to a gradual decline ever since -- both passing and yards per run.  That's not only because of injuries; the league caught up to the Ravens offensive scheme and they proved in multiple years that Jackson can and will be shut down in the playoffs.

Declining asset, declining health, defenses have caught up to him.  Not a formula for giving in to his outrageous contract demands. 

 

Is this even a question?  Ravens offense was nonexistant prior to Lamar's arrival.  They have dine a terrible job during his tenure of giving him offensive weapons.  Their offensive success is due to Lamar, not what the Ravens have put around him.

 

45-16 as a starter.  In that same span Ravens are 8-13 in the games Lamar didn't start.

 

Imagine what he could do on a team that actually gave him WRs to throw to.

The most entertaining part of this year's draft first round for me is it will play out like a game of Black Lady (for those familiar with the "Hearts" card game and variations) -- except, in this case, there are a few Black Lady cards getting dealt out.  

 

Anthony Richardson -- 90-95% bust potential.  Huge Black Lady card

Jalen Carter -- better than 2/3 bust potential IMO.

Bryce Young -- a 5'10,190 lb franchise QB?  Hidden Black Lady card.

 

There are a couple of others IMO who will be over-drafted.  I don't think JSN or Johnston will "bust", but they'll be overvalued for sure.

 

3 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Someone made an interesting point on Jalen: you have to look at the per-snap production. Georgia has a loaded Dline that rotates constantly through a game. Additionally, they were often up by 30-40 points in the third quarter; he didn’t see much time in the second half for a lot of the season.

Had he played at Kentucky or Ole Miss or Miss State it’d be different. So you can pick any other full time starting DT in this class and they’ll probably have higher cumulative stats… but that doesn’t mean they’re better.

Kancey played 454 snaps in 2022. Jalen Carter played 396.  The difference in snaps played is minimal.

15 hours ago, Texas Eagle said:

Has anyone else not watched a single clip of the SB yet? I can’t bring myself to do it. That hurt more than any loss of any team in my life. More than ‘05.

I’ve wanted to, only because I got so drunk that I don’t remember anything after halfway thru the 3rd quarter. But I haven’t been "emotionally ready” yet. At the restaurant I worked at they’d replay it so I’d catch bits and pieces, but haven’t sat thru the whole thing. It’s still too soon, maybe after some more time.

 

Chris Long on the green light pod other day asked Fletcher Cox if he’d rather go 1-15 or lose in the superbowl, Cox said 1-15. I think he made a comment that he threw up after the game too. 

Generally speaking if the first two picks are CB and DL I think that’s good. I just don’t see how Howie doesn’t trade down with at least one of those picks though. There’s no way he’s going pickless in rounds 4-6

13 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

What about Carter makes him franchise changing?  Warren Sapp was franchise changing.  I'd rather not piss away a 1st on a guy who has nothing but red flags just because they have an extra 1st.

This is where I'm at too. I don't really see or know where this elite talent label is coming from. I only watched one Georgia game all year when they played Oregon. I think Carter logged one tackle and he was virtually non-existent all game. He ran out of gas before half time, he wasn't explosive off the ball, and seemed to only have a bull rushing move. There was several plays with him just standing up and jogging around. Add it the legal trouble he got himself into, reports of immaturity, the horrible pro-day showing, and lack of work ethic, I'm out on him in the 1st round. Let some other team make the mistake in drafting him that high.

2 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

Within a month that ball park will go back to being empty.  Most Fairweather fan base in the city.

Not this year.

6 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

The most entertaining part of this year's draft first round for me is it will play out like a game of Black Lady (for those familiar with the "Hearts" card game and variations) -- except, in this case, there are a few Black Lady cards getting dealt out.  

 

Anthony Richardson -- 90-95% bust potential.  Huge Black Lady card

Jalen Carter -- better than 2/3 bust potential IMO.

Bryce Young -- a 5'10,190 lb franchise QB?  Hidden Black Lady card.

 

There are a couple of others IMO who will be over-drafted.  I don't think JSN or Johnston will "bust", but they'll be overvalued for sure.

 

2 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

Not this year.

 

 

Absolutely this year.  Harper is out until the end of the year and that other dude just busted his knee.  Phillies fans are quick to jump ship and abandon team.  Then whenever they make the playoffs suddenly everyone is a huge life long fan all decked out in gear.

16 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Generally speaking if the first two picks are CB and DL I think that’s good. I just don’t see how Howie doesn’t trade down with at least one of those picks though. There’s no way he’s going pickless in rounds 4-6

I will be upset if we don’t get 2 lineman by the end of third round. I’m a bit of an extremist in that regard. Every year we should get at least 2 guys who can challenge for a starting Oline or Dline spot by the end of their rookie deals.

2022 Davis and Jurgens

2021 Dickerson and Williams

2020 draft sucked other than Jalen; not a coincidence

2019 Andre and Shareef, not the best but we had limited picks. Unfortunate Andre didn’t work out

2018 Josh Sweat, otherwise a surprisingly high value draft

2017 Barnett and a ton of skills guys, another clunker

2016 we followed Wentz up with Seumalo and Vaitai, not a bad group

2015 Hicks was good, Agholor was barely not a bust, otherwise the draft was a waste

2014 Marcus Smith complete bust, then just took skill position guys. Awful

2013 Lane Johnson, Bennie Logan. Some other nice picks, good draft

2012 Fletcher Cox, Vinny Curry, one of our best drafts ever

 

we should never EVER have depth issues on either line. Drafts that we don’t go line heavy early tend to suck.

My order of operations:

QB

Dline

Oline

Who the F cares

6 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Absolutely this year.  Harper is out until the end of the year and that other dude just busted his knee.  Phillies fans are quick to jump ship and abandon team.  Then whenever they make the playoffs suddenly everyone is a huge life long fan all decked out in gear.

Given that the season is 162 games long and you have day games, double headers etc it's tough to keep a consistent sold out stadium.  

5 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Absolutely this year.  Harper is out until the end of the year and that other dude just busted his knee.  Phillies fans are quick to jump ship and abandon team.  Then whenever they make the playoffs suddenly everyone is a huge life long fan all decked out in gear.

To be fair, football is a much easier to sport to continue watching when you're not good since it's such a minimal time commitment. It's one game a week for 3-4 months. You REALLY have to like baseball to watch a team suck for 162 games.

4 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

I will be upset if we don’t get 2 lineman by the end of third round. I’m a bit of an extremist in that regard. Every year we should get at least 2 guys who can challenge for a starting Oline or Dline spot by the end of their rookie deals.

2022 Davis and Jurgens

2021 Dickerson and Williams

2020 draft sucked other than Jalen; not a coincidence

2019 Andre and Shareef, not the best but we had limited picks. Unfortunate Andre didn’t work out

2018 Josh Sweat, otherwise a surprisingly high value draft

2017 Barnett and a ton of skills guys, another clunker

2016 we followed Wentz up with Seumalo and Vaitai, not a bad group

2015 Hicks was good, Agholor was barely not a bust, otherwise the draft was a waste

2014 Marcus Smith complete bust, then just took skill position guys. Awful

2013 Lane Johnson, Bennie Logan. Some other nice picks, good draft

2012 Fletcher Cox, Vinny Curry, one of our best drafts ever

 

This isn’t rocket science, we should never EVER have depth issues on either line. Drafts that we don’t go line heavy early tend to suck.

Ideally I do think some order of CB, DL, OL should be their first 3 picks. Wherever those picks end up being. Definitely need OL depth, they lost two key OL in free agency.

7 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

Absolutely this year.  Harper is out until the end of the year and that other dude just busted his knee.  Phillies fans are quick to jump ship and abandon team.  Then whenever they make the playoffs suddenly everyone is a huge life long fan all decked out in gear.

Thought I heard Harper might be back before All-Star game

I did a mock draft the other day where I landed Gonzalez, Kancey, and Mauch with my first 3 picks. Would be super ideal imo.

Chandler Zavala IOL from NC state is a guy that’s been getting more love recently. Wasn’t invited to the combine but people think he’ll be the highest drafted non combine invite, range is day 2/3. I like what I’ve seen so far. Could grab him in the 3rd & plug him in at RG or use as depth until Jurgens slides back to Center when Kelce is done. I’d honestly be ok with taking both him and Cody Mauch

1 minute ago, Sack that QB said:

Ideally I do think some order of CB, DL, OL should be their first 3 picks. Wherever those picks end up being. Definitely need OL depth, they lost two key OL in free agency.

I am a fan of Driscoll, but I don’t want him to be the emergency LT. That’s one I think we definitely need

6 minutes ago, garingovt2000 said:

Thought I heard Harper might be back before All-Star game

Yea, they didn't even put him on the 60-Day IL because he has a chance to be back before that. 

1 minute ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Yea, they didn't even put him on the 60-Day IL because he has a chance to be back before that. 

speaking of...why was Hoskins put on the 60 day?  I guess I'm not totally aware of how the MLB injury list rules go.  I mean, he's out for the year.

 

I think the Lamar Jackson issue breaks down into 4 concepts:

1. 50m$ AAV contract

2. That contract fully guaranteed or nearly fully guaranteed

3. giving up 2 1st round picks

4. Lamar’s recent injury issues

—————————————————-

What QBs in the NFL today, if they were in Lamar’s position, would you make this move on?

1. Pat Mahomes, easy

2. Joe Burrow… I’m okay with the 2 1sts and the 50m$ AAV, but I’m iffy on the fully guaranteed. I’d have to really think about that and get opinions of my other front office people

3. Justin Herbert, 2 1sts and then giving a 50m$ AAV contract is a lot. His stats are pretty but we rarely see him take over games against other top QBs. If he’s playing Burrow or Mahomes or Allen or now Lawrence in a playoff game, does anyone expect him to have the better game? If I’m LAC and don’t need to give up 2 1’s that a different story, but I still definitely can’t give him the fully guarantees, at least not until I see more.

4. Josh Allen, 2 1sts, yeah maybe. 50m$ AAV? I think so. Fully guaranteed deal? This dude’s completion % has dropped by 5% the last 2 years and his turnovers are climbing. May be a bump in the road, but if he continues to regress then you’ll be F’ed for the next 5-6 years. Consider the Browns: if Deshaun Watson is anything less than immaculate then Cleveland will disappear from the NFL landscape until his deal is over. I can’t give Allen those guarantees.

 

5. Jalen Hurts… 2 1sts no, 50m$ sure, fully guaranteed definitely not. I like hurts a lot, but for another team, much like Lamar, is there any assurance he can match his value with my coaching staff and my personnel? Plus he’s had 1 single MVP caliber year, much like Lamar. I need to see more before I’m giving that many draft assets up for him. And no way a fully guaranteed deal for a Qb who runs as much as him or Allen or Lamar.

 

 

So what Lamar wants there’s only maybe 1.5 QBs in the world who are worth it. Dude needs an agent to tell him to accept reality

1 minute ago, Sack that QB said:

 

I heard more about that clunker than any other team’s surface until the AZ SB. Shocking such a new OUTDOOR stadium in a huge market can have THAT problem. 

4 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

speaking of...why was Hoskins put on the 60 day?  I guess I'm not totally aware of how the MLB injury list rules go.  I mean, he's out for the year.

That's the longest injured list. It's basically equivalent to IR. They are out a minimum of 60 days up to indefinitely. The other list is only a 10 day IL. 

1 minute ago, LeanMeanGM said:

That's the longest injured list. It's basically equivalent to IR. 

does it renew after 60 days? or he just stays on the 60 day?

3 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

So what Lamar wants there’s only maybe 1.5 QBs in the nfl who are worth it. Dude needs an agent to tell him to accept reality