7 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Let's talk about Dallas Goedert.  No one is denying how good he is.  He's proven to be a top 5-7 TE in the NFL.  However, he gets hurt every year.  He's played in 69 out of 82 games but he's in his prime, just turning 28.  However, when you consider Gronk retired at 32 becuase of injuries, 28 going on 29 during the season doesn't seem all that young.

I'm looking at OTC and if I'm reading it right, there are 2 options for him.  Restructure or post-June 1 trade.

The 1st chart is a restructure and the 2nd is post-June 1 trade.  On the colored part of the graph, the left number is dead cap, the right is cap savings.  The number to the left of the % is his current cap number.  2023 is more than reasonable at $6.6 million cap hit.  

He looks like a prime candidate to restructure as none of his salary is gauranteed and you can nearly cut his cap number in half for 2024-26. 

Now, the other side of that is that there's a tremendous amount of TE talent in the next 2 drafts.  Could Howie potentially trade DG in a draft day trade (marked as a post-June 1) pick up some much needed draft picks and opening up minimal cap this year but $14 million in the following 2 seasons and then draft a stud in this draft?  

RESTRUCTURE

2023 📝	28	$1,080,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$1,330,000		$6,600,732	2.8%		$0	$200,000
2024	29	$14,000,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$0		$19,520,732	7.6%		$0	$9,843,750
2025	30	$14,000,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$0		$19,520,732	6.9%		$0	$8,720,000
2026 📝	31	Void	$3,227,000	Void		Void		$5,811,000	1.9%		$0	($607,500)
2027	32	Void	$2,584,000	Void		Void		$0	--		$0	$0

POST-JUNE 1 TRADE

2023 📝	28	$1,080,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$1,330,000		$6,600,732	2.8%		$5,270,732	$1,330,000
2024	29	$14,000,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$0		$19,520,732	7.6%		$5,270,732	$14,250,000
2025	30	$14,000,000	$5,270,732	$250,000		$0		$19,520,732	6.9%		$5,270,732	$14,250,000
2026 📝	31	Void	$3,227,000	Void		Void		$5,811,000	1.9%		$3,227,000	$2,584,000
2027	32	Void	$2,584,000	Void		Void		$0	--		$2,584,000	($2,584,000)

 

Not saying I don't want Goedert on the team at all.  Just looking at production/injuries/return in trade/cap effect.  

Not all injuries are "made” the same.  This season’s injury from the face mask non-penalty would have caused the majority of NFLplayers to miss games.  That wasn’t a Goedert vulnerability.  Rather it was a risk all players face every play of every week.

The idea of trading Goedert is absurd mostly because the return value received would be relatively low.  You wouldn’t get a 1st round pick, and maybe not even a 2nd round pick.

Goedert is a big, big, big part of our run game. When he's on the field, the defense can't key in if it's run or pass. When Stoll is in in 1TE sets, we run. When Calcatera is in 1TE sets, we pass. Goedert is worth the money.

1 minute ago, mattwill said:

Not all injuries are "made” the same.  This season’s injury from the face mask non-penalty would have caused the majority of NFLplayers to miss games.  That wasn’t a Goedert vulnerability.  Rather it was a risk all players face every play of every week.

The idea of trading Goedert is absurd mostly because the return value received would be relatively low.  You wouldn’t get a 1st round pick, and maybe not even a 2nd round pick.

Not to use Miles Sanders as an example of durability but the facemask being the cause of his injure doesn't hold up to me.  Goedert misses games, bottom line.  I don't WANT to trade Goedert but if you can get multiple picks for him, save a ton in upcoming cap space and there's a wealth of TE talent available, now would be the time.

With all that being said, it looks like he should be a prime restructure candidate if I'm reading it the right way and that's what they should do. 

13 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

Not to use Miles Sanders as an example of durability but the facemask being the cause of his injure doesn't hold up to me.  Goedert misses games, bottom line.  I don't WANT to trade Goedert but if you can get multiple picks for him, save a ton in upcoming cap space and there's a wealth of TE talent available, now would be the time.

With all that being said, it looks like he should be a prime restructure candidate if I'm reading it the right way and that's what they should do. 

I get what you're saying, but he is an integral part of the offense and run game so I sincerely doubt it. But to your idea, you do have to be innovative and a step ahead with trades and need to strike when the iron is hot. Goederts iron is red hot right now, not sure what he would fetch in a trade, could you get a mid round pick this year and possibly a 1 next year? Or a couple of 2nd rounders?

I would think you can use the Hockenson trade to the Vikes as a baseline for the trade.

The deal involved Minnesota sending a 2023 second-round pick and 2024 third-round pick to Detroit to land the No. 8 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, as well as a fourth-round pick in 2023 and a conditional pick in 2024.

6 minutes ago, RLC said:

Goedert is a big, big, big part of our run game. When he's on the field, the defense can't key in if it's run or pass. When Stoll is in in 1TE sets, we run. When Calcatera is in 1TE sets, we pass. Goedert is worth the money.

Not denying Goedert's importance to the team.  However, in games missed by DG this year, the Eagles averaged 187 ypg.  In games DG played, the Eagles averaged 147 ypg.

Week 11, Indy- 141 yards

Week 12, GB- 363 yards

Week 13, Titans- 67 yards

Week 14, NYG- 253 yards

Week 15, Chicago- 112 yards

I think DG is a great player, but I also think he's a little overrated at the same time. 

Again, I don't want to trade him.  I think he's a possible restructure candidate.  BUT, if they ever wanted to trade him, this draft is the perfect draft to find his replacement.

Goedert is a very balanced TE.  He can make big catches (has battled drops at times).  He blocks very well.  He's not a mismatch weapon as a receiver though.  I'm not saying he has to be; our offense doesn't ask that.  He also, for whatever reason, is not prolific in the red zone.  He is what he is...a really good starting TE and #3 passing option for the offense...who has a tendency to miss games.  700-800 yards per year with 3-4 TDs and excellent blocking.

I'd prefer to not restructure him (I don't want him to have a 1,000,000 cap hit in 2036) and let him play out the duration of his reasonable extension without complication.  Then let him walk.  

This is how Sanders should've always been used 

1 minute ago, Saltpeter said:

This is how Sanders should've always been used 

That's my biggest gripe with the Eagles offense.  Sometimes I think the rushing numbers are a little inflated since they tend to get away from it at times.  I'd love to have a 1-2 punch rather than 3 guys constantly rotating.  It works for the Eagles now but I think they could improve on the way they use their backs. 

Giving up on Dallas Goedert, without obvious replacements at either TE or WR, is a bad idea.

We can relatively easily replace Miles Sanders with Kenny Gainwell. Who exactly is replacing Goedert? Keep in mind that it's hard to find good TEs.

22 minutes ago, RLC said:

Giving up on Dallas Goedert, without obvious replacements at either TE or WR, is a bad idea.

We can relatively easily replace Miles Sanders with Kenny Gainwell. Who exactly is replacing Goedert? Keep in mind that it's hard to find good TEs.

If there was a severe, noticeable decline in the play of the offense when Goedert was out, I would be more prone to agree.  But if you look at the talent in this draft, you can find any kind of tight end you want.  It's an absolutely loaded class.  There's also a solid mix of older and younger veteran TE available in FA. 

But again, let me make it clear, I don't want them to trade Goedert.  I just think if there ever was a time, this draft class, as well as the veterans available in FA and the cap implications make it a good time to do so.

18 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

If there was a severe, noticeable decline in the play of the offense when Goedert was out, I would be more prone to agree.  But if you look at the talent in this draft, you can find any kind of tight end you want.  It's an absolutely loaded class.  There's also a solid mix of older and younger veteran TE available in FA. 

But again, let me make it clear, I don't want them to trade Goedert.  I just think if there ever was a time, this draft class, as well as the veterans available in FA and the cap implications make it a good time to do so.

Don't forget you have to consider the long term effect of moving a guy after an extension and in his prime. What's that do to the locker room? What's that do to the future free agents that would want to come here and possibly earn a second contract? What's that do to current eagle's in negotiations on there 2nd contracts?

Wanting to get rid of Goedert is a really bad take.  Just as bad when some in the blog didn't want to re-sign heading into the 2021 season.  He's an elite level TE in his prime. 

1 hour ago, bpac55 said:

Not denying Goedert's importance to the team.  However, in games missed by DG this year, the Eagles averaged 187 ypg.  In games DG played, the Eagles averaged 147 ypg.

Week 11, Indy- 141 yards

Week 12, GB- 363 yards

Week 13, Titans- 67 yards

Week 14, NYG- 253 yards

Week 15, Chicago- 112 yards

I think DG is a great player, but I also think he's a little overrated at the same time. 

Again, I don't want to trade him.  I think he's a possible restructure candidate.  BUT, if they ever wanted to trade him, this draft is the perfect draft to find his replacement.

I like Goedert myself but tend to think people overrated him a little.

Problem is there aren't many really good TEs.  Kelce, Kittle, Andrew's, Goedert, maybe Friermuth, Waller, Hockenson, maybe Pitts if he could get a quality QB.  

Mayer from ND and Bowers from Georgia are 2 guys that could be star TEs in the league.

15 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

If there was a severe, noticeable decline in the play of the offense when Goedert was out, I would be more prone to agree.  But if you look at the talent in this draft, you can find any kind of tight end you want.  It's an absolutely loaded class.  There's also a solid mix of older and younger veteran TE available in FA. 

But again, let me make it clear, I don't want them to trade Goedert.  I just think if there ever was a time, this draft class, as well as the veterans available in FA and the cap implications make it a good time to do so.

That's kind of what the Titans did with AJ Brown, and then drafted a replacement for him in Treylon Burks.

TE is a difficult position to transition to in the NFL. We see many teams have pass catching TE's or blocking TE's, but its rare to have one that can do both well. There's only a handful of TE's better than Goedert, he is also very reliable and had the highest catch % for TE's this season. His blocking is also greatly underrated. Remember what happened with Purdy when they had a TE try to block a DE? The Birds really don't have to worry about that much.

If they already had a promising TE on the roster I would be more in favor of this, just like the Celek to Ertz, and Ertz to Goedert situation. But we don't have anyone I would trust right now. Stoll is a jag and we haven't seen much from Calcaterra. This might be a better idea for next off-season, but I think Goedert is more valuable to this team right now than he is to another.

1 minute ago, 315Eagles said:

I like Goedert myself but tend to think people overrated him a little.

Problem is there aren't many really good TEs.  Kelce, Kittle, Andrew's, Goedert, maybe Friermuth, Waller, Hockenson, maybe Pitts if he could get a quality QB.  

Mayer from ND and Bowers from Georgia are 2 guys that could be star TEs in the league.

I don't think this team needs a top 5 TE or even a really good TE to be successful.  This team is going to go as the OL, Hurts, Brown, Smith and the running game does.  Having a top 5 TE in Goedert is a luxury.  I think it's a luxury they can afford to move on from IF the return is there and they move to get a solid replacement.

Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, Tucker Kraft (anothe SDSU TE) are three guys I love in this draft.

This year seems like a really weak draft for LBs? Wonder if that alters plans with Edwards.

2 minutes ago, wussbasket said:

That's kind of what the Titans did with AJ Brown, and then drafted a replacement for him in Treylon Burks.

TE is a difficult position to transition to in the NFL. We see many teams have pass catching TE's or blocking TE's, but its rare to have one that can do both well. There's only a handful of TE's better than Goedert, he is also very reliable and had the highest catch % for TE's this season. His blocking is also greatly underrated. Remember what happened with Purdy when they had a TE try to block a DE? The Birds really don't have to worry about that much.

If they already had a promising TE on the roster I would be more in favor of this, just like the Celek to Ertz, and Ertz to Goedert situation. But we don't have anyone I would trust right now. Stoll is a jag and we haven't seen much from Calcaterra. This might be a better idea for next off-season, but I think Goedert is more valuable to this team right now than he is to another.

I actuually think he's less valuable to this team than he is to others.  AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top targets.  They have $100 million invested in AJ Brown and DeVonta is going to be on the same level sooner than later.  Paying TE top dollar is a luxury.  Now, if this team still had Reagor and Ward at WR, I wouldn't even suggest trading Goedert, no matter the return.  That's not the case anymore.

5 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

I actuually think he's less valuable to this team than he is to others.  AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top targets.  They have $100 million invested in AJ Brown and DeVonta is going to be on the same level sooner than later.  Paying TE top dollar is a luxury.  Now, if this team still had Reagor and Ward at WR, I wouldn't even suggest trading Goedert, no matter the return.  That's not the case anymore.

For 2023, Goedert will have the 20th highest cap hit for TE's. That's not top dollar, if anything that's a bargain. Now, in 2024 his number jumps greatly, but I would imagine something is done with his contract by then.

What's the return on a Goedert trade? Hockenson got the Lions a 2023 2nd and 2024 3rd, but also have gave up a 2023 4th and 2024 4th. That was a trade deadline deal, trying to trade Goedert in the offseason will be even less with the draft coming up. When the Eagles traded Ertz, they got Tay Gowan and a 5th round pick. Historically not many TEs get traded and the return on them doesn't seem to be much.

It’s officially the offseason when Bpacc pines for other TEs while underrating Goedert’s value to the team. 

1 minute ago, wussbasket said:

For 2023, Goedert will have the 20th highest cap hit for TE's. That's not top dollar, if anything that's a bargain. Now, in 2024 his number jumps greatly, but I would imagine something is done with his contract by then.

What's the return on a Goedert trade? Hockenson got the Lions a 2023 2nd and 2024 3rd, but also have gave up a 2023 4th and 2024 4th. That was a trade deadline deal, trying to trade Goedert in the offseason will be even less with the draft coming up. When the Eagles traded Ertz, they got Tay Gowan and a 5th round pick. Historically not many TEs get traded and the return on them doesn't seem to be much.

They waited too long to trade Ertz, they gave him away.  Hockenson is an interesting comparison but so is Hayden Hurst.  When the Ravens traded him to the Falcons, they sent a 4th and Hurst for a 2nd and a 5th.  

2024-25, when his contract hits nearly $20 million is what I'm more concerned about, not 2023.  He's still hanging around $7 million this year, which is a bargain.  

The Eagles drafted Goedert in the 2nd when Ertz was 28.  Maybe the conversation should move towards drafting TE2 this year so you prepare for when Goedert's contract does jump next year and then you have options.

5 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

It’s officially the offseason when Bpacc pines for other TEs while underrating Goedert’s value to the team. 

You're right lol.  I know that Goedert has value to this team.  There's no denying what he brings to the table.  I just have a lot of fun looking at different scenarios and I do think that Goedert, as valuable as he is, could eventually be an expendable luxury.  

Goedert is the same age now that Ertz was in 2018 when he was drafted, the year after a SB appearance.  It's not THAT crazy to think about. 

25 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

This year seems like a really weak draft for LBs? Wonder if that alters plans with Edwards.

 weak backer class , I have 5 in the top 100 , one first rounder , Sanders .

I know change of direction isn't everything, though it's something I value highly when looking at prospects, because I think it's a good indicator of athletic ability. Cutting is such a huge part of the game of football. When I watch Charbonnet, his change of direction and the ability to cut is so vastly inferior to other RBs in this class. I can't get over it.

Top 5 TE's drafted in 2022 (in order of drafted):

Trey McBride -  29 receptions, 265 receiving yards, 1 TD, 74.4% catch rate

Jelani Woods - 25 receptions, 312 receiving yards, 3 TD, 62.5% catch rate

Greg Dulcich - 33 receptions, 411 receiving yards, 2 TD, 60.0% catch rate

Jeremy Ruckert - 1 reception, 8 receiving yards, 0 TD, 50.0% catch rate

Cade Otton - 42 receptions, 391 receiving yards, 2 TD, 64.6% catch rate

 

Dallas Goedert - 55 receptions, 702 receiving yards, 3 TD, 79.7% catch rate

 

A rookie TE is not going to come in and be good. I believe it is one of the harder positions to transition into, and takes a few years to get going. Kyle Pitts was one who jumped out his first year with over 1k receiving yards, and then completely vanished his 2nd year.

I wouldn't mind if they looked at TE in the draft this year and then next off season looked to move from Goedert depending on the cap situation. But this is not the off season to do it.

6 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

You're right lol.  I know that Goedert has value to this team.  There's no denying what he brings to the table.  I just have a lot of fun looking at different scenarios and I do think that Goedert, as valuable as he is, could eventually be an expendable luxury.  

Goedert is the same age now that Ertz was in 2018 when he was drafted, the year after a SB appearance.  It's not THAT crazy to think about. 

Our passing game is pretty narrow. We don’t have a third legit pass catcher without him. Usually rookie TEs aren’t very good because they have to learn how to block and to run NFL routes. 

If you traded Goedert for say a 2, you’re turning around and using either that pick or a better pick for a TE you’d be lucky to be as good as Goedert. 

People can talk about the depth of TE class, but how many of those prospects project to be legitimate in-line players? Mayer, Washington (who isn’t the receiver Goedert is) and who else?

Players like Goedert give offenses an advantage because they don’t tip off defenses. They have to honor him as a blocker, but they can’t treat him like a receiver. 

Outside of Kittle, is there a better TE for this offense than Goedert?