35 minutes ago, MidMoFo said:

So you agree with me.

Um not not at all since I said most RB's are on the decline around the same age you said they are hitting their peak.

There's just too many great running backs that come outside of the 1st round to justify taking one at 10. At 30 I wouldn't be mad at it but he won't be there.

43 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

Um not not at all since I said most RB's are on the decline around the same age you said they are hitting their peak.

Imo unless you are AP, henry and some select others the decline usually begins around 27-28 and by 30 you are no longer in an every down back role like you were drafted to be. Barkley just got his second so we don’t know. But last 15 years of running backs taken top 15 he’s when they declined zeke at 25, fournette at 27, Cmc (still in his prime was banged up 2 years in a row before this year is 26), Todd gurley at 25, Melvin Gordon at 27/28, Richardson was a bust, cj spiller at 27, Moreno 26-27, McFadden 28 (really was pretty mediocre from 24-27).

Excluding Richardson, who was just a complete bust from the beginning, the average age is 26.7 years (saquon and cmc hard to use their ages in this cause neither has declined yet. So the two outliers here might be saquon and cmc in the last 15 years. Frankly i don’t think cmc is at his peak anymore. I’d argue he’s still clearly good but imo his peak was year 3 when he ran for 1400 and received for 1000 in 16 games). Robinson’s last year of his rookie deal when he’s 26. Now maybe he goes on to be like Adrian Peterson, Christian McCaffrey, and potentially Saquon Barkley. But the it’s been shown more running backs aren’t the exception. Heck even mccaffrey hasn’t been able to stay healthy year to year and ditto with Barkley. So there is definitely numbers telling you there is potential depreciation value going into that second contract.

those are just the running backs picked in top 15 in the last 15 years. Im guessing if it did the majority who got a big second contract over that period of time the number is still likely close to around 27-28. 

I haven’t done the research but I would bet if we went over the last 15 years of top 15 pick every other position (and remove the busts because they are just flat out Crap to begin with) it isn’t close to the potential decline of value at age 26.7 

Last season’s NFL sack leaders, by draft slot:

N. Bosa — #2 overall

H. Reddick — #13 overall

M. Garrett — #1 overall

C. Jones — #37 overall

M. Judon — #146 overall

A. Highsmith — #102 overall

M. Parsons — #12 overall

J. Watt — #11 overall

 

With a couple of exceptions, if you want a difference maker as a pass rusher you’d better spend your first draft pick on one.

18 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Last season’s NFL sack leaders, by draft slot:

N. Bosa — #2 overall

H. Reddick — #13 overall

M. Garrett — #1 overall

C. Jones — #37 overall

M. Judon — #146 overall

A. Highsmith — #102 overall

M. Parsons — #12 overall

J. Watt — #11 overall

 

With a couple of exceptions, if you want a difference maker as a pass rusher you’d better spend your first draft pick on one.

I get why watt retired but he still was playing  well at 33. He had 12.5 sacks last year. 

that said if we stay at 10 i think it’s likely Nolan smith, van ness, or 1 of the 3 OL (don’t think either Cb makes it nor Anderson, Wilson or Carter make it to 10)

26 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Last season’s NFL sack leaders, by draft slot:

N. Bosa — #2 overall

H. Reddick — #13 overall

M. Garrett — #1 overall

C. Jones — #37 overall

M. Judon — #146 overall

A. Highsmith — #102 overall

M. Parsons — #12 overall

J. Watt — #11 overall

 

With a couple of exceptions, if you want a difference maker as a pass rusher you’d better spend your first draft pick on one.

You can do the same list with the stars of yesteryear, and not even the top 10 dudes. Donald went in the teens, Dexter Lawrence in the teens; Fletcher went 12, Graham at 10 iirc, Chandler Jones 21, Cameron Heyward late first, Cameron Jordan late first, on and on. All these guys had cons that made them unworthy of being top selections too. One of the tier 2 prospects absolutely could turn out to be a dawg. We’re not talking third round talent here, these are top half of the first round types of guys we’re choosing from.

If the top 9 goes like this and you can’t trade out, who are you taking?

1. panthers— Stroud

2. Texans— young 

3. cards— Anderson 

4. Colts— Levis

5. Seahawks— Carter 

6. Lions— witherspoon 

7. Raiders— gonzalez

8. Falcons— Wilson 

9. bears— skoronski 

10. eagles— 

imo eagles would comes down to smith, Paris johnson, van ness and jones 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

If the top 9 goes like this and you can’t trade out, who are you taking?

1. panthers— Stroud

2. Texans— young 

3. cards— Anderson 

4. Colts— Levis

5. Seahawks— Carter 

6. Lions— witherspoon 

7. Raiders— gonzalez

8. Falcons— Wilson 

9. bears— skoronski 

10. eagles— 

imo eagles would comes down to smith, Paris johnson, van ness and jones 

Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones, just depends on who you think has the highest ceiling, and I think that’s Paris Johnson. Plus I really like the guy, watched him on Bussin with the Boys other day & he seems like a stand up dude

11 hours ago, Alphagrand said:

You know somebody is taking OL in the top 10; there are an increasing number of teams following the Eagles' formula of building through the trenches, and there just isn't top-flight WR talent in this draft class.

There will be 3 QBs (maybe 4), 2 EDGE (maybe 3), then one CB (maybe 2).  Throw in an OL or two and that's the top 10.  I can see either ATL or CHI taking OL at #8 and 9.  The Bears will have had a plan in mind of who is available at #9 before they made the trade out of #1 overall.  I think they know either Skoronski or Johnson Jr will be at the top of their draft board at that pick.

In terms of Skoronski for the Eagles, it's possible they see a path to have him train at RG for a season behind Jurgens, then if/when Kelce retires you have an OL of Lane/Skoronski/Jurgens/Dickerson/Mailata.  That sounds pretty good for the long term.  

I wouldn’t complain if that is the plan.  Just, please, don’t project Skoronski as the future at OT.

44 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

If the top 9 goes like this and you can’t trade out, who are you taking?

1. panthers— Stroud

2. Texans— young 

3. cards— Anderson 

4. Colts— Levis

5. Seahawks— Carter 

6. Lions— witherspoon 

7. Raiders— gonzalez

8. Falcons— Wilson 

9. bears— skoronski 

10. eagles— 

imo eagles would comes down to smith, Paris johnson, van ness and jones 

Paris Johnson or Myles Murphy (can see Howie pulling the trigger on this one)

58 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

If the top 9 goes like this and you can’t trade out, who are you taking?

1. panthers— Stroud

2. Texans— young 

3. cards— Anderson 

4. Colts— Levis

5. Seahawks— Carter 

6. Lions— witherspoon 

7. Raiders— gonzalez

8. Falcons— Wilson 

9. bears— skoronski 

10. eagles— 

imo eagles would comes down to smith, Paris johnson, van ness and jones 

The Eagles know better than me so I would just say whomever they have rated the highest on their board at DL or OL. If they have two guys ranked in the same tier I would go DL. So Johnson, Jones, Van Ness, Smith, Murphy, etc. I wouldn't take a RB at 10, I don't see Joey Porter JR as a significantly better prospect than the next two or three corners, it's way too early for Branch, I don't see a WR in this draft worthy of a top 10 pick, etc etc.

1 hour ago, mattwill said:

I wouldn’t complain if that is the plan.  Just, please, don’t project Skoronski as the future at OT.

I thought it was very curious when Fran Duffy discussed him with bo wulf that he had some teams tell him they believe he could be a good center in the league. 

Gunn, Ellis, and Brooks think the prices for sunday ticket with YT are reasonable. They are MASSIVELY out of touch with reality if they think the average person has nearly $500 to blow on some extra NFL games when they are living paycheck to paycheck and have debt. The economy is showing no signs of getting any better any time soon as well.

13 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

Gunn, Ellis, and Brooks think the prices for sunday ticket with YT are reasonable. They are MASSIVELY out of touch with reality if they think the average person has nearly $500 to blow on some extra NFL games when they are living paycheck to paycheck and have debt. The economy is showing no signs of getting any better any time soon as well.

nflbite has everything for free

4 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

If the top 9 goes like this and you can’t trade out, who are you taking?

1. panthers— Stroud

2. Texans— young 

3. cards— Anderson 

4. Colts— Levis

5. Seahawks— Carter 

6. Lions— witherspoon 

7. Raiders— gonzalez

8. Falcons— Wilson 

9. bears— skoronski 

10. eagles— 

imo eagles would comes down to smith, Paris johnson, van ness and jones 

Jones or smith

3 hours ago, T-1000 said:

Gunn, Ellis, and Brooks think the prices for sunday ticket with YT are reasonable. They are MASSIVELY out of touch with reality if they think the average person has nearly $500 to blow on some extra NFL games when they are living paycheck to paycheck and have debt. The economy is showing no signs of getting any better any time soon as well.

I have had ST since 2002 and i think this will be the end of it for me

4 hours ago, T-1000 said:

Gunn, Ellis, and Brooks think the prices for sunday ticket with YT are reasonable. They are MASSIVELY out of touch with reality if they think the average person has nearly $500 to blow on some extra NFL games when they are living paycheck to paycheck and have debt. The economy is showing no signs of getting any better any time soon as well.

It is reasonable. It’s $350 if you get it before June 6th or $250 if you have YT TV. For someone like me who doesn’t get the games it’s $29/game at 12 games a year. I took out the primetime games.

At $350 which will probably be about the average a subscriber pays they would need to have 7 million subscribers to break even. Sunday Ticket had 2 million subscribers last year. Lowering it to $200 means they would have to go from finding 5 million more to 10 million more subscribers. But now everyone has access. DirecTV gave it away for free to a lot of people and took a loss in this category because they relied on the bars/restaurants to make money. DirecTV kept that part of Sunday Ticket so Youtube can’t rely on that money.

The NFL sold 2 billion dollars in jerseys last year. It’s not unreasonable to think people will pay a few hundred dollars more to actually watch the product.

9 hours ago, MidMoFo said:

So if all the top DLine options are off the board at 10 this year… and we step outside of the box ONE single time and draft a RB at 10 this year… we’re not allowed to draft DLine again until 2027? I’m not sure what you’re saying is anywhere close to accurate.

Ain't it the truth? We have twelve, count 'em, twelve picks in 2024. We might even use one or two of them on OL.

4 minutes ago, MillerTime said:

It is reasonable. It’s $350 if you get it before June 6th or $250 if you have YT TV. For someone like me who doesn’t get the games it’s $29/game at 12 games a year. I took out the primetime games.

At $350 which will probably be about the average a subscriber pays they would need to have 7 million subscribers to break even. Sunday Ticket had 2 million subscribers last year. Lowering it to $200 means they would have to go from finding 5 million more to 10 million more subscribers. But now everyone has access. DirecTV gave it away for free to a lot of people and took a loss in this category because they relied on the bars/restaurants to make money. DirecTV kept that part of Sunday Ticket so Youtube can’t rely on that money.

The NFL sold 2 billion dollars in jerseys last year. It’s not unreasonable to think people will pay a few hundred dollars more to actually watch the product.

With all due respect, Im not sure you realize just how much the average person is struggling financially right now. People are finally starting to get fed up with corporate greed and a system which continues to make the wealth gap in this country bigger and bigger. Not to mention there are ways to stream games for free in high quality as well.

If you guys don't already have youtube TV you're doing it wrong.

And 250 for the people doing it right is a reasonable price. 

8 hours ago, MidMoFo said:

We had the lead going into the 4th quarter. You don’t think having the ability to to impose our will on the Chiefs defense running the ball in the 2nd half, drain the clock, score TDs on 8-10 minute drives, keeping Mahomes off the field, would have won us the Super Bowl?

We had 0 sacks after leading the league in team sacks on the regular season. Remember that.

We also had our qb fumble away a td like a stooge and gave up a punt return close to the goal line…

7 minutes ago, T-1000 said:

With all due respect, Im not sure you realize just how much the average person is struggling financially right now. People are finally starting to get fed up with corporate greed and a system which continues to make the wealth gap in this country bigger and bigger. Not to mention there are ways to stream games for free in high quality as well.

Heard the same nonsense since the…60s? 
 

people are dumb and make short sighted decisions then look to blame external factors. Human nature is not new.

 

5 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

If you guys don't already have youtube TV you're doing it wrong.

And 250 for the people doing it right is a reasonable price. 

The next time you do something right will be the first 😄

1 minute ago, T-1000 said:

With all due respect, Im not sure you realize just how much the average person is struggling financially right now. People are finally starting to get fed up with corporate greed and a system which continues to make the wealth gap in this country bigger and bigger. Not to mention there are ways to stream games for free in high quality as well.

Youtube has to pay 2.5 billion a year for Sunday Ticket. Which is a stupid amount. It’s the reason AT&T didn’t try and companies like Apple backed out. I’m not sure why people expected the price to be cheap.

Sunday Ticket has a target audience. That target audience just expanded due to accessibility. They have to get 1 out of 48 people to buy to break even. So 2% of America.

I know people are struggling but Youtube has an uphill climb to make money for Sunday Ticket. 

12 hours ago, Sack that QB said:

Kempski and Gowton both had Nolan Smith as the most likely Eagles first pick.

So they have been reading the EMB.