I don’t know much about this Jeff Kerr guy. Any chance this is actually true?

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

 

He wants to be on the Eagles so bad.  Hopefully he isn't too washed in his career when he finally makes his way over onto the team years from now.  

5 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Didn’t they have to draft some shoemaker to replace Dalton Schultz?

I’m pretty sure he lost his mind during a live draft show when the Eagles drafted Carter too. 

2 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I don’t know much about this Jeff Kerr guy. Any chance this is actually true?

 

 

Hard to say because you would think if that was true then they would have traded up for him.  They could have also, somehow, had some really good intel that the teams ahead of them weren't going to take him.  I bet you there is a lot of illegal but high paid spying going on throughout the NFL in all the organizations.  And you know the Patriots had the top spy network before any other teams even had one started.  

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* for @LeanMeanGM getting me thinking about last 10 years of Eagles backup QBs with very long journeyman careers.

 

Spoiler

Mickey Shuler                Josh McCown*         Freeman McNeil

Randall  Cunningham       Rodney Peete        DeMarco Murray

Clyde Simmons                 Lomas Brown         Ottis Anderson

 

11 minutes ago, ManuManu said:

I don’t know much about this Jeff Kerr guy. Any chance this is actually true?

He’s like Diet John Clark. I’m sure someone in the FO told him that for a puff piece. 

 

2018's 3rd best QB in the NFL says QBR.

The 8th best?

They were 16th and 24th in passer rating but they had moxie, kid!

8 hours ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

There are a few reasons I didn’t include WR or CB. The hit chance argument goes just as well for those positions. For every Julio Jones there’s a pile of Darius Heyward Bey’s and John Ross’s and Kevin White’s and Tavon Austin’s. Dline and Oline have anecdotally much better hit rates for true star players.

But it goes deeper than that. An average to above average player at a lineman’s position is a good pick in the top 10 if he has a long career. Brandon Graham pick 10 is a perfect example, I would be very happy taking him at that spot if I knew how his career would go, despite 1 pro bowl, 1 double digit sack season. Another 10th overall pick, Michael Crabtree was an above average receiver; he played 11 years, had 7500 yards and 54 TDS… and was a complete misfire. He’s simply not worth the value of a top 10 pick. L
 

The receiver not only needs to succeed at the NFL level, but he has to be a breakout star player or it wasn’t good value. A guard, a DT, a RT, a DE just need to be a solid starter for 2 contracts, even if he never makes a pro bowl, and you can justify the value there because of how important consistent lineman are. That’s a significant difference

I disagree with this a lot. The draft pick’s value is only relevant for the rookie deal. After that it is a completely different opportunity cost. To get maximum value you need them to perform during those cheap years.

I would like to apologize to a SB winning OC and one hell of a model American. 

 

25 minutes ago, TEW said:

I disagree with this a lot. The draft pick’s value is only relevant for the rookie deal. After that it is a completely different opportunity cost. To get maximum value you need them to perform during those cheap years.

Hmm, I see what you’re saying but I believe it’s way more than that. The Nick Bosas, the Quinnen Williams’s, the Lane Johnson’s and Andrew Thomas’s and Quentin Nelson’s… these players aren’t readily available on the open market once their rookie deals are done. Very few teams are turning down those extensions. You’re drafting these guys with expectations of 10+ years of play when they hit.

In the moment when you’re drafting it’s hard to look too far into the future, but who they become over the long term for your franchise is a factor in the overall value of the selection.

1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

Jacoby Brissette(4-7), Marcus Mariota(5-8), and Derek Carr(6-9) were the 8th, 13th and 14th best QBs according to worthless QBR.

All 3 had a losing record and all 3 were benched, but QBR knows better!

Brisette had 16 total TDs and 10 total turnovers.

He ran for 22.5 yards a game in his starts which was no better than 10th for a QB. He only ran for 2 TDs.

He lost a shootout to Flacco when his RBs ran for 146 and 3 TDs. He lost to Mariota when his RBs ran for 157 and a score.

A better QB wins 6 or 7 of those 11 starts. QBR said he was the 8th best QB (a lie) and passer rating had him at a troubling 20th in passing efficiency. (which being about 10th in running won't help much)

 

QBR involves judging. Its not a real stat.

Its not a bad thing to try to include rushing and pressure and fumbles and sacks and air yards traveled. Its just that ESPN does a bad job of randomly coming up with skewed results.

Stats like EPA per play might be very good. Do you know the formulas or do they pretend as well?

ESPN also calculates their stats AFTER they know who won... Most other stats are the same regardless of the outcome.

 

Well Bob, he had a 3.6 out of 10 pressure on that throw. Oh, they won, I mean he had a 4.9 pressure on that throw. 🤡

 

Passer rating does not claim to be a who wins stat. Its just a passing efficiency stat but its not pretend.

 

Well I have bad news for you, Passer rating is as pretend as QBR, just in a different way. The weights of how yards and TDs vs interceptions scale in passer rating was completely made up by some random guys. The formula has no basis in anything beyond their personal opinions.
 

Whether or not you care if your QB just demolished the best pass D in football vs him demolishing the worst pass D in football is the difference between passer rating and QBR. QBR they don’t figure out until after the game because the outcome matters. Garbage time stats are not the same as game winning drive stats. Passer rating doesn’t care, because it takes situational football completely out of it. When that’s everything football is
 

 

10 year sample from realignment onward.

2002 Mike Williams, Bryant McKinnie, and Levi Jones (2 flops and a meh)

2003 Jordan Gross ( decent starter for 5 years, all-pro in year 6 and 2 more pro bowls in years 8 and 11)

2004 Robert Gallery (bad/bust for #2 overall who had a meh career. He switched to guard in year 4 and nobody takes guards at #2 overall))

2005 None

2006 D'B Ferguson (hit who anchored the Jets line for with 7 or 8 good years out of 10 and 3 pro bowls)

2007 Joe Thomas and Levi Brown  (HoF and stop drafting Levi Lineman!)

2008 Jake Long (first 4 years were HoF trajectory and then it went off the rails fast, the pick was solid even for #1 overall)  Duane Brown went 26th

2009 Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe (2 busts and a meh) Jason Smith at #2 overall started 26 unremarkable games.

2010 Trent Williams and Russel Okung (HoF and good with 2 pro bowls and a SB ring)

2011 Tyron Smith  (HoVG but might get in because Cowboy)

 

 

Getting a Jason Smith, Robert Gallery, or a Mike Williams is just as likely as a Trent Williams, Joe Thomas, or Tyron Smith.

 

 

2013 is a good example.

Fisher at 1 was a very good, not great OT.  2 pro bowls and a ring with a long career and 139 starts.

Joekel at 2 was a borderline bust at best he was a 4th round talent with a 5 year career with 50 starts.

Lane at 4 is a HoF OT

2 guards were taken at 7 Cooper and 10 Warmack and both were busts.

27 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

I have bad news for you, Passer rating is as pretend as QBR, just in a different way. The weights of how yards and TDs vs interceptions scale in passer rating was completely made up by some random guys. The formula has no basis in anything beyond their personal opinions. Whether or not you care if your QB just demolished the best pass D in football vs him demolishing the worst pass D in football is the difference between passer rating and QBR. QBR they don’t figure out until after the game because the outcome matters. Garbage time stats are not the same as game winning drive stats. Passer rating doesn’t care, because it takes situational football completely out of it. When that’s everything football is
 

 

You are being obtuse.

The football field is made up

The clock in all sports is made up because time is made up.

The strike zone is made up

The hockey nets are made up.

Passer rating is a clear and highly visible formula of QB passing efficiency based on 4 key statistics.

TDs are good because DUH!

INTs are bad because DUH!

More yards per throw is good!

More passes caught is good!

 

You are welcome to have sad feelings about the 0-158 rating.

• We all know that when Phil Simms goes nuts in the SB and gets a 150.9 its because he was in god mode. (or Young or Montana, etc)
• We all know that 158.3 means your QB is just annihilating the D.
• We all know that a 100+ season is very good for a passer.  (it may be 105 in 10 years as the numbers slide up over time)
• We all know that pushing 110 is incredible and pushing 120 is ultra-rare.
• We all know that 90-100 is very good.
• We all know that 80-90ish is decent.
• We all know that dipping into the 70s is staring to be bad.
• We all know that Andy Dalton Playoffs land of 60s and falling is very bad.

But you go ahead and pretend QBR is a stat. 

 

Here is the perfect example.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/400999173

Brady and Foles did not score in the 80s from any real stat attempting to capture their performance.

Foles was about a 98 and Brady about a 96.

Foles pick was not on Foles. It hit Alshon in the chest. Was the QBR monkey grinder too stupid to see this?

What was his pressure rating on the 4th down conversion at midfield?

Running counts but catching a TD does not? Why can't the guy who is making it up as he goes along make that up?

Brady was not to blame for Brandon Graham instantly collapsing the pocket and punching the ball away.

Their passer ratings were perfectly accurate because passer rating does not care how the interception got there and we all know this.

QBR pretends to understand but is a tale told by an idiot. That idiot is in love with Jameis, Trubisky, and Charlie Batch. 🤡

 

 

Passer rating is part of gameday conversation.

People figure it out after a quarter or a half. Its tracked on some websites in real time.

 

QBR is secretly and randomly determined in a back room by the Russian judge. 💩

For some inexplicable reason, I just spent an hour and a half watching a Youtube video that the Detroit Lions put out today showing behind the scenes footage of the three days of the draft. Tons of war room footage. Strategy discussions. We saw conversations with other teams regarding possible trade scenarios. Clips of combine interviews with guys they took. Clips of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson interacting with the Lions two first round picks when they were flown in after the draft. Phone conversations with the players they took. Just an ish ton of cool stuff. Obviously a lot of it was sanitized to put everything in the best possible light for them. But still, it was great.

Meanwhile the Eagles put out jack when it comes to the draft. It's sad.

4 hours ago, SkippyX said:

BTW, there is nothing wrong with Herbert and he could wind up with SB rings and a gold jacket.

It was a good idea to pay him with his physical abilities and production through 3 years.

The problem is with people pretending he is already great.

Last year was primed to he his big leap forward, and then literally their entire offense got hurt except ekler. Idk if he had both starting receivers and ekler for more than 5 games, I know allan was hurt a ton. I think he's going to be great, but idk if he's going to be "HOF, makes a JAG a 1,000 yard receiver" great. He definitely isn't that right now, but I think the potential is there and people see that.

1 hour ago, SkippyX said:

You are being obtuse.

The football field is made up

The clock in all sports is made up because time is made up.

The strike zone is made up

The hockey nets are made up.

Passer rating is a clear and highly visible formula of QB passing efficiency based on 4 key statistics.

TDs are good because DUH!

INTs are bad because DUH!

More yards per throw is good!

More passes caught is good!

 

You are welcome to have sad feelings about the 0-158 rating.

• We all know that when Phil Simms goes nuts in the SB and gets a 150.9 its because he was in god mode. (or Young or Montana, etc)
• We all know that 158.3 means your QB is just annihilating the D.
• We all know that a 100+ season is very good for a passer.  (it may be 105 in 10 years as the numbers slide up over time)
• We all know that pushing 110 is incredible and pushing 120 is ultra-rare.
• We all know that 90-100 is very good.
• We all know that 80-90ish is decent.
• We all know that dipping into the 70s is staring to be bad.
• We all know that Andy Dalton Playoffs land of 60s and falling is very bad.

But you go ahead and pretend QBR is a stat. 

 

Here is the perfect example.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/400999173

Brady and Foles did not score in the 80s from any real stat attempting to capture their performance.

Foles was about a 98 and Brady about a 96.

Foles pick was not on Foles. It hit Alshon in the chest. Was the QBR monkey grinder too stupid to see this?

What was his pressure rating on the 4th down conversion at midfield?

Running counts but catching a TD does not? Why can't the guy who is making it up as he goes along make that up?

Brady was not to blame for Brandon Graham instantly collapsing the pocket and punching the ball away.

Their passer ratings were perfectly accurate because passer rating does not care how the interception got there and we all know this.

QBR pretends to understand but is a tale told by an idiot. That idiot is in love with Jameis, Trubisky, and Charlie Batch. 🤡

 

 

Your arguments are all over the place. Passer rating also punished Foles for that pick in the same manner. It’s good that passer rating did but bad that QBR did? The difference in overall rating between the 2 QBs was comparable in the passer rating difference and the QBR difference. Why was that the game to show QBR was wrong and passer rating was right when they said they same thing?

All analytical stats are flawed, but going to back to find exceptions in QBR is only going  to hurt your argument because you’re just inviting people to do the same with Passer rating.

Hey look, Tua and Garoppolo were 2 of the top 3 passer ratings in the NFL last year, what should we take from that? Were they the best QBs? Not really. Did it do a better job of dictating their win/loss chances than the QBs who were trailing them? Well no. Had they stayed healthy, is Garoppolo the 3rd best QB in the NFL? The 5th best? Even top 10? If not then what is it even saying? If It has no context and no on agrees with the placement it’s presenting, it’s more or less a broken stat; too heavily influenced by factors that don’t involve his actual talent nor game-impacting production. Andy Dalton was top 10 and ahead of Cousins, Brady, Herbert… was his season really that good? We’re their seasons not good enough to be in the Andrew Dalton tier?
 

Let’s try 2021: Dak Prescott is the third best QB in football. Cousins is 4th, Wilson is 5th, and Mahomes is way down at 10th (despite throwing for 4800, 37 and 13). Was he really that much inferior to those other QBs? Are we underselling Dak? Should he be regarded as a guy in the Mahomes/Burrow/Allen tier? His passers ratings seem to always be quite good.

You say it best reflects winning, but there are outliers everywhere. Back one more year and 4-12 Deshaun Watson is second in the entire NFL in passer rating. How does that happen? Because it doesn’t care if he’s hocking bombs while down by 30. QBR meanwhile says that while the statline was indeed impressive, he drops all the way down to 12th because the impact wasn’t. Passer rating believes did just as much to help his team win as Brady who was pulling out nail biters all year. Or it doesn’t, because it doesn’t have any idea the difference.

This is not one guy you went back 5 years ago to find, passer ratings is complete gobbledygook year after year. It’s all messed up because it makes no attempt to understand what it’s seeing. Yes big pass GOOD, interceptions BAD. But how it relates those to one another is too flawed, and how it never alters the relation is flawed even more still.

All of the string equation stats are somewhat porous, none are perfect. You have to use multiple, different analytics from different sources to pin down a consensus. But most of the better ones don’t fall apart as consistently as passer rating when you poke them. QBR works because you have to go back 5 years just to find your Mitch Trubisky outlier.

Passer rating is to football what batting average is to baseball. A simple stat that removes tremendous amounts of context to better appeal to the more casual fanbase.

 

5 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

For some inexplicable reason, I just spent an hour and a half watching a Youtube video that the Detroit Lions put out today showing behind the scenes footage of the three days of the draft. Tons of war room footage. Strategy discussions. We saw conversations with other teams regarding possible trade scenarios. Clips of combine interviews with guys they took. Clips of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson interacting with the Lions two first round picks when they were flown in after the draft. Phone conversations with the players they took. Just an ish ton of cool stuff. Obviously a lot of it was sanitized to put everything in the best possible light for them. But still, it was great.

Meanwhile the Eagles put out jack when it comes to the draft. It's sad.

I saw the Detroit video on YouTube also.  it was very well done.  sort of like hard knocks level production.  The fact they were just recently on hard knocks maybe is the reason they are doing it, their media team probably learned alot about this stuff during that.  I would love for the eagles to do something similar but I don't think they need to to drum up interest so probably why they don't. 

6 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

For some inexplicable reason, I just spent an hour and a half watching a Youtube video that the Detroit Lions put out today showing behind the scenes footage of the three days of the draft. Tons of war room footage. Strategy discussions. We saw conversations with other teams regarding possible trade scenarios. Clips of combine interviews with guys they took. Clips of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson interacting with the Lions two first round picks when they were flown in after the draft. Phone conversations with the players they took. Just an ish ton of cool stuff. Obviously a lot of it was sanitized to put everything in the best possible light for them. But still, it was great.

Meanwhile the Eagles put out jack when it comes to the draft. It's sad.

Don't worry, the Eagles do a much better job during TC. Day 2 of TC and home page looks like a dedication to Spadaro and they are tweeting about video game ratings. 

 

 

8 hours ago, Alphagrand said:

Didn’t they have to draft some shoemaker to replace Dalton Schultz?

Who is on PUP.

6 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

For some inexplicable reason, I just spent an hour and a half watching a Youtube video that the Detroit Lions put out today showing behind the scenes footage of the three days of the draft. Tons of war room footage. Strategy discussions. We saw conversations with other teams regarding possible trade scenarios. Clips of combine interviews with guys they took. Clips of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson interacting with the Lions two first round picks when they were flown in after the draft. Phone conversations with the players they took. Just an ish ton of cool stuff. Obviously a lot of it was sanitized to put everything in the best possible light for them. But still, it was great.

Meanwhile the Eagles put out jack when it comes to the draft. It's sad.

I think NE spying at the Super Bowl coupled with the building of the Nova Care center sent the Eagles down a rabbit hole of secrecy that was cemented when the fake walkthrough resulted in a Super Bowl victory.  Plus, I suspect Howie doesn’t want the public to see how his weasel personality comes off. 

14 hours ago, McMVP said:

This will be an interesting year for an Aaron Rodgers in my book. I saw him decline last year.  I know I was not alone. Now he is on a more talented team with very good offensive weapons and a terrific defense. His offensive line is another story.  He is also in a very competitive division. Even the Patriots will not be pushovers.  They are well coached team, even if they are not as talented as they once were.  Not to mention the competitiveness of the conference he is in.

I would not be at all shocked if the Jets still fell short of the playoffs. I would also not be shocked if they won their division. I am in complete wait-and-see mode on this one.

It looks like Rodgers is taking this off season more seriously than others. He looks in good shape and not so mopey.

13 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Marcus smith or Danny Watkins would be the only jerseys worse 

 

To be clear, that is not me nor anyone I know.  Dude must be a moron

9 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

He wants to be on the Eagles so bad.  Hopefully he isn't too washed in his career when he finally makes his way over onto the team years from now.  

I would love to add Micah Parsons. Need to tell him to hold strong on his contract demands.

7 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

For some inexplicable reason, I just spent an hour and a half watching a Youtube video that the Detroit Lions put out today showing behind the scenes footage of the three days of the draft. Tons of war room footage. Strategy discussions. We saw conversations with other teams regarding possible trade scenarios. Clips of combine interviews with guys they took. Clips of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson interacting with the Lions two first round picks when they were flown in after the draft. Phone conversations with the players they took. Just an ish ton of cool stuff. Obviously a lot of it was sanitized to put everything in the best possible light for them. But still, it was great.

Meanwhile the Eagles put out jack when it comes to the draft. It's sad.

The Eagles are paranoid and don't want to advertise what  is a winning secret sauce.  Why give anybody so much intel on internal processes.

I do miss the old old days of going to training camp and the full coverage there.  Wish we got more.  Played my first live gig at Westchester training camp and would go to the Rat hoping to see players and coaches.