1 minute ago, Alphagrand said:

The draft isn’t supposed to be ‘a crap shoot’, though 

Your last sentence is really stretching the elastic of rationalization out beyond Mars ....

Only Mars? 

Until somebody comes up with a definitive process of drafting it will continue to be a crap shoot.

Sure there are ways to increase ones chances and still it's chance not a sure thing 

I guess I could amend my statement and say that Howie has been a poor crapper?

14 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

Name one single thing about the 2020 Eagles that argues for the retention of Roseman.

He's a BS artist who is great at blaming other people. I worry Lurie won't have the guts to do it.

People talk about "Draft picks" as if they're equal, a 3rd rd pick for Slay is great value, a 7th rd for Ridgeway was great value, because it's hard to draft starting CBs in the 3rd rd and players who make your team in the 7th round. A 4th for Avery isn't great value  b/c Avery can't get into games, if he was your 4th DE and got you 3-4 sacks it would be fine.

Once you get to the 6th rd, you can get the same value off the street if you are good at recognizing hidden gems and raiding other teams' practice squads. The reason teams want late round picks is primary to accumulate the top UDFAs in case other teams draft them before they can sign them, but it shows how marginal the difference is between the last hundred draft picks and the top hundred UDFAs.

So all draft picks aren't created equal, which is why when you traded down, you get more draft picks.

4 minutes ago, greend said:

Actually, yes.

Maybe. I'd hope with his size and speed Pederson and Co could figure out how to use him but I have doubts, pederson still hasn't figured out how to use a straw.

7 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Judging a draft by the production of players 3 years later is easy and lazy.

It's easy to say so and so drafted after so and so out produced so and so drafted before him therefore it was a good or bad pick without considering the circumstances that led to those players drafted.

One can look back and say every player drafted before tom brady in that draft was a bad pick as he's easily the most productive player of that draft class yet no one makes that claim because it's ludicrous.

The draft is a crap shoot. One sets their boards based off scout evaluations and for the most part most top players are graded similarly by all teams, they may differ by a spot or two but it's close where there was no team that has tom brady as a 1st round pick while everyone else had him 3rd day.

Howie hasn't been bad at drafting he's had bad results which is a result of a myriad of things other than draft position.

 

You know who says that the draft is a crap shoot... bad drafters. 

 

Good drafting teams always seem to have 'good' drafts, and find players that produce.   The Steelers (whom I can't stand) always seem to have good drafts and find talented players, despite always picking in the 20s of just about every round.  Why is that?   Maybe because they have a clear philosophy of what they are looking for and know how to find it.   They want athletic LBs who can run and tackle.  They always find them.  Big, strong, stout DL to eat up blocks freeing up their LBs, they find them.  Tough, hard nosed DBs... At WR, they find guys who can flat out play.  Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, JuJu, Claypool... even going back further, they found Hines Ward... and even found ways to make Kordell Stewart dangerous.   And RBs... they always seem to have good running backs too.  Is it a crap shoot and they are just lucky, or do they have a system of how to sift through it all and find more hits than misses? 

Ravens are similar... there are certain players you just know are going to be Ravens.  Patrick Queen was drafted by the Ravens.  I could have told you that was going to be the outcome as soon as he declared.  Same for when they ended up with CJ Moseley.  There was no way he was going to last to them... and then he did, and they ran the podium with the pick.  

 

And then there's some organizations that just can't draft to save their lives... every year they miss and miss and miss.  Cleveland Browns missed on 4, or was it 5, 1st round QBs since they reentered the NFL in 1999, despite nearly always picking in the top 10... because they can't draft.  

 

 

There's a science to it, its not a simple one, it has a lot of variables.  And it looks random, but when you actually study it more closely, you see that some teams do it really well over a long period of time, and some teams do it really poorly.  And there's the blind luck teams that are always stuck in the middle... but if you look at the trends over the years, good teams draft well, bad teams draft poorly.   And some teams just fluctuate up and down based on dumb luck.

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

People talk about "Draft picks" as if they're equal, a 3rd rd pick for Slay is great value, a 7th rd for Ridgeway was great value, because it's hard to draft starting CBs in the 3rd rd and players who make your team in the 7th round. A 4th for Avery isn't great value  b/c Avery can't get into games, if he was your 4th DE and got you 3-4 sacks it would be fine.

Once you get to the 6th rd, you can get the same value off the street if you are good at recognizing hidden gems and raiding other teams' practice squads. The reason teams want late round picks is primary to accumulate the top UDFAs in case other teams draft them before they can sign them, but it shows how marginal the difference is between the last hundred draft picks and the top hundred UDFAs.

So all draft picks aren't created equal, which is why when you traded down, you get more draft picks.

Thank you Captain Obvious.

A 3rd & 5th... and $13M/year for Slay... He ate salary cap AND draft capital... not just one.  But, its good to see you defending your boy so doggedly today.

17 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

I was here all day during the draft and spent a ton of time here in the weeks prior.

There was a small % of people that wanted Jefferson but it was the minority.  It was usually, "If we can't get so or so, then I want Jefferson".

And following the draft, the #1 complaint is that they didn't do more to trade up for Lamb.   Jefferson was already an afterthought by most after the draft.  

Now all of a sudden the "Everyone wanted Jefferson" narrative comes out and I assure you, that wasn't the case then.

 

I still think lamb has a chance to be the best wr from this class. Before dak got hurt he was on pace for 1385 yards and 7-8 tds. Jefferson is going to come close to that.

That said i thought the three most ready WRs in the draft were jefferson, lamb and jeudy. reagor was never a polished product. It was always going to take time. When you add the pandemic in it was going to take time. I didn’t have a problem with reagor but did just assuming he was going to be ready day one  

however i was not for or against jefferson. I was ok if that’s where they went or didn’t. However i was also one of the few who either trade up for one of the top three if you got good value in a trade up (which didn’t think was realistic) or trade back from 20 cause this team had question marks all over the place and holes. Now maybe they could or couldn’t have traded back but i tend to believe they could’ve have with the guys on the board.  

11 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

I'll ask @austinfan but wouldn't "the return" include the production of the players drafted?

 

Based on a quick look, I say no.  Here are our rankings on return vs capital

2019 - 21st

2018 - 8th

2017 - 27th

2016 - 6th

2015 - 21st

2014 - 30th

So 4 of those 6 years we are 21st or lower.

Not lets look at the two top 10 rankings.

2018 ( 8th ) we have Goedert ( future #1 TE ) Maddox ( what to say ) Sweat ( rotation pass rusher ) Pryor ( back up at best ) and Mailata ( possible future LT )

2018 Cleveland is ranked 26th on the same chart.  They got Mayfield, Denzel Ward, Austin Corbett, Nick Chubb.  You telling me that is 18 spots worse than the Eagles draft class ??

2016 ( 6th ) Wentz, Seamalu and Mills, all starters, the other 5 guys we drafted are not even on the roster.

2016 Tennessee is ranked 18th on that same chart.  6 of the 10 players drafted still on the roster, including pro bowlers Kevin Byard and Derrick Henry and a pretty good LT in Jack Conklin.

This tells me that it is not weighing player production.

 

25 minutes ago, Desertbirds said:

Name one single thing about the 2020 Eagles that argues for the retention of Roseman.

He unites the fanbase.

8 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Only Mars? 

Until somebody comes up with a definitive process of drafting it will continue to be a crap shoot.

Sure there are ways to increase ones chances and still it's chance not a sure thing 

I guess I could amend my statement and say that Howie has been a poor crapper?

Its more blackjack than it is crap shoot.  Crap shoot means that there's nothing you can do.   Blackjack is a game that with the right system, you can win and win big... if you know how to do it.  Which is why card counters get kicked out of and/or banned from casinos. 

4 minutes ago, downundermike said:

Based on a quick look, I say no.  Here are our rankings on return vs capital

2019 - 21st

2018 - 8th

2017 - 27th

2016 - 6th

2015 - 21st

2014 - 30th

So 4 of those 6 years we are 21st or lower.

Not lets look at the two top 10 rankings.

2018 ( 8th ) we have Goedert ( future #1 TE ) Maddox ( what to say ) Sweat ( rotation pass rusher ) Pryor ( back up at best ) and Mailata ( possible future LT )

2018 Cleveland is ranked 26th on the same chart.  They got Mayfield, Denzel Ward, Austin Corbett, Nick Chubb.  You telling me that is 18 spots worse than the Eagles draft class ??

2016 ( 6th ) Wentz, Seamalu and Mills, all starters, the other 5 guys we drafted are not even on the roster.

2016 Tennessee is ranked 18th on that same chart.  6 of the 10 players drafted still on the roster, including pro bowlers Kevin Byard and Derrick Henry and a pretty good LT in Jack Conklin.

This tells me that it is not weighing player production.

 

you are arguing against this 

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

You know who says that the draft is a crap shoot... bad drafters. 

 

Good drafting teams always seem to have 'good' drafts, and find players that produce.   The Steelers (whom I can't stand) always seem to have good drafts and find talented players, despite always picking in the 20s of just about every round.  Why is that?   Maybe because they have a clear philosophy of what they are looking for and know how to find it.   They want athletic LBs who can run and tackle.  They always find them.  Big, strong, stout DL to eat up blocks freeing up their LBs, they find them.  Tough, hard nosed DBs... At WR, they find guys who can flat out play.  Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, JuJu, Claypool... even going back further, they found Hines Ward... and even found ways to make Kordell Stewart dangerous.   And RBs... they always seem to have good running backs too.  Is it a crap shoot and they are just lucky, or do they have a system of how to sift through it all and find more hits than misses? 

Ravens are similar... there are certain players you just know are going to be Ravens.  Patrick Queen was drafted by the Ravens.  I could have told you that was going to be the outcome as soon as he declared.  Same for when they ended up with CJ Moseley.  There was no way he was going to last to them... and then he did, and they ran the podium with the pick.  

 

And then there's some organizations that just can't draft to save their lives... every year they miss and miss and miss.  Cleveland Browns missed on 4, or was it 5, 1st round QBs since they reentered the NFL in 1999, despite nearly always picking in the top 10... because they can't draft.  

 

 

There's a science to it, its not a simple one, it has a lot of variables.  And it looks random, but when you actually study it more closely, you see that some teams do it really well over a long period of time, and some teams do it really poorly.  And there's the blind luck teams that are always stuck in the middle... but if you look at the trends over the years, good teams draft well, bad teams draft poorly.   And some teams just fluctuate up and down based on dumb luck.

So with the eagles diverting a huge amount to analytics one would think they would have more success no?

Seems to me the issue isnt the lack of science or lack of knowledge it's the lack of clear purpose and philosophy.

Steelers know exactly what they want in a draft. The are a 34 organization no matter the coach it seems forever the organization has said this is who we are these are the kinds of players we draft and they go out and get them and have a lot of success. Same with the raven.

Where as the eagles what's their identity.?What kind of players do they want? I think the last time I can think of the eagles had an organizational identity was under buddy ryan. One could go into a draft and say that guy fits what buddy wants an eagle to be especially on defense. I can't point to any one thing that howie had identified as an eagle, they have zero organizational identity and it shows every week.

So maybe the problem isn't the science or knowledge behind drafting but the identity and purpose behind it.

38 minutes ago, Utebird said:

What about that flavored icee drink they have at camp, is howie responsible for that, those seem to be a success...

Fans aren’t allowed at camp anymore so it goes down as a failure. Besides I had soft serve ice cream rated higher on my board. Should’ve chosen that.

2 minutes ago, Utebird said:

So with the eagles diverting a huge amount to analytics one would think they would have more success no?

Seems to me the issue isnt the lack of science or lack of knowledge it's the lack of clear purpose and philosophy.

Steelers know exactly what they want in a draft. The are a 34 organization no matter the coach it seems forever the organization has said this is who we are these are the kinds of players we draft and they go out and get them and have a lot of success. Same with the raven.

Where as the eagles what's their identity.?What kind of players do they want? I think the last time I can think of the eagles had an organizational identity was under buddy ryan. One could go into a draft and say that guy fits what buddy wants an eagle to be especially on defense. I can't point to any one thing that howie had identified as an eagle, they have zero organizational identity and it shows every week.

So maybe the problem isn't the science or knowledge behind drafting but the identity and purpose behind it.

The Steelers and Ravens seem to draft toughness as well in their players. Always 2 of the most physical teams in the league. Gotta admit I’m kinda jealous.

26 minutes ago, Ace Nova said:

I was here all day during the draft and spent a ton of time here in the weeks prior.

I made it overwhelmingly clear I wanted Jefferson, with no if ands of buts about it.

I know @Iggles_Phan was right there with me.  

It was not a minority, there was a bunch of us.

@VaBeach_Eagle how do you go look at your saved old board profile, and can I see all of my posts if it is saved ??

 

4 minutes ago, Casey @ Bat said:

The Steelers and Ravens seem to draft toughness as well in their players. Always 2 of the most physical teams in the league. Gotta admit I’m kinda jealous.

Yup. Seems Howie makes his picks based on a value chart.

He assigns a value to a player and a value to a draft slot, if a player drafted has an assigned greater value than his assigned draft slot Howie counts it as a win.

This is what happens when one puts a bean counter in charge of an nfl draft.

Wow.  Got replaced with a future NFL roster around him.

 

6 minutes ago, Utebird said:

So with the eagles diverting a huge amount to analytics one would think they would have more success no?

Seems to me the issue isnt the lack of science or lack of knowledge it's the lack of clear purpose and philosophy.

Steelers know exactly what they want in a draft. The are a 34 organization no matter the coach it seems forever the organization has said this is who we are these are the kinds of players we draft and they go out and get them and have a lot of success. Same with the raven.

Where as the eagles what's their identity.?What kind of players do they want? I think the last time I can think of the eagles had an organizational identity was under buddy ryan. One could go into a draft and say that guy fits what buddy wants an eagle to be especially on defense. I can't point to any one thing that howie had identified as an eagle, they have zero organizational identity and it shows every week.

So maybe the problem isn't the science or knowledge behind drafting but the identity and purpose behind it.

No.

And I agree... and posted such earlier regarding the Eagles lack of identity.  If you have an identity, and you know who you are, then you know better which players will or won't fit.   Pittsburgh knows... the Eagles do not.  But, once you know who you are, the rest is easier to figure out... and the science becomes finding your type of players.

5 minutes ago, downundermike said:

I made it overwhelmingly clear I wanted Jefferson, with no if ands of buts about it.

I know @Iggles_Phan was right there with me.  

It was not a minority, there was a bunch of us.

@VaBeach_Eagle how do you go look at your saved old board profile, and can I see all of my posts if it is saved ??

@BigEFly as well.

3 minutes ago, downundermike said:

 

Amazing that mcnabb made the pro bowl the year he had 16 tds and 11 ints. 

4 minutes ago, Utebird said:

Yup. Seems Howie makes his picks based on a value chart.

He assigns a value to a player and a value to a draft slot, if a player drafted has an assigned greater value than his assigned draft slot Howie counts it as a win.

This is what happens when one puts a bean counter in charge of an nfl draft.

yes

1 minute ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Amazing that mcnabb made the pro bowl the year he had 16 tds and 11 ints. 

I don't think that's right.  I think that was his 5th year as a starter (2005), not his 5th year in the league (2004).

26 minutes ago, Diehardfan said:

He's a BS artist who is great at blaming other people. I worry Lurie won't have the guts to do it.

Billionaires don't get that way by not frying a few of their friends. If he thinks that's what needs to be done he'll have the "guts".

36 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Nothing beats a slow, short CB with stiff hips and questionable ball skills. 

Other than literally every wide receiver not named JJAW

Just now, Iggles_Phan said:

No.

And I agree... and posted such earlier regarding the Eagles lack of identity.  If you have an identity, and you know who you are, then you know better which players will or won't fit.   Pittsburgh knows... the Eagles do not.  But, once you know who you are, the rest is easier to figure out... and the science becomes finding your type of players.

So where does that identity come from?

In pitt it comes straight from the top, ownership, as it should.

Ownership in pitt has been clear about what they want the identity of their organization to be and it has led to the most super bowls.

What's the eagles organizational identity under lurie?

I'm not sure he or anyone knows.

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

I don't think that's right.  I think that was his 5th year as a starter (2005), not his 5th year in the league (2004).

His 5th year was 2003