Ongoing Ertz discussion thread (orig 9/15)

[ManchesterEagle]

On 9/17/2020 at 1:14 PM, Cochis_Calhoun said:

We used 2 TE sets more than anyone in the league last year (40+% of snaps, no other team in the league got much above 30%) and we were pretty much the worst team in the league playing out of 12 personnel. We may improve this year if Goedert has progressed again but it's not the silver bullet people think it is.

The problem is Ertz can get open but isn't great at blocking, he's basically a receiver built like a tank, and Goedert last year was phenomenal at blocking but struggled against man coverage.

Yeah I’m not saying he’s wrong for doing it. Ertz and Goedert are two of our best players but it’s often not great to have them both out there together.

[NOTW]

On 9/16/2020 at 1:35 PM, EazyEaglez said:

The danger to that is I could easily see Ertz go to a divisional opponent. You let him walk and he will stay in the NFC East due to familiarity and the chance of revenge. If you trade him it’s most likely he resigns with that team. I don’t think Howie can figure out a way to keep Ertz and Goedert. He has two years to figure it out. If Ertz is willing to take less he can get what he wants and that’s to retire as an Eagle. 

What familiarity?  Just facing the same defenses? That's never going to be a huge factor for a player.  Money, coach, QB, scheme, organization, etc.  Up until the argument with Howie, Ertz has had no problem with this organization.  I don't see him out for "revenge."  He'll want to go to the best place for him with the best financial situation.

 

 

[NOTW]

On 9/16/2020 at 1:45 PM, EagleVA said:

Let's say he has been our best WR with the WRs we've had, currently we have 3 new WRs (4 including DJ) where that shouldn't be the case, not unless of course he's still Wentz's security blanket with the upgrades talent at the position.

Take away Wentz's security blanket and he may grow as a QB.

Logic:  take away a QBs top receiving weapon so he can grow?  

Also a couple years ago I destroyed the narrative that Wentz threw to Ertz and ignored his other receivers compared to Foles.  Foles threw to Ertz with as many targets as Wentz.  You know why?  He's the best receiver on the team and most reliable weapon.  He's the guy opposing defenses look out for.

 

[NOTW]

On 9/16/2020 at 1:15 PM, wtfcares said:

This. Ertz value is equal to approximately what we paid for Slay. Both top 5 in their position. Both around same age, both needed to be paid. We got Slay for a 3rd and conditional 5th. No one is giving a 1st for Ertz. 
 

Unless one of our young WRs really steps up his game this season and proved he can be a go to receiver, no way is it worth it to trade our best pass catcher for a 3rd and 5th. If you don’t want to pay to extend him, let him play out his contract next 2 years, then walk and we likely get a 4th round comp pick. 

I don't see his value the same as Slay for a few reasons.

Different team dynamics and how their leadership value their players.  Some examples:  Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for much less than people expected.  They were stupid and just wanted to get rid of him and O'Brien valued David Johnson, reportedly turning down better offers of draft picks because he really wanted Johnson.  Some teams have a disgruntled player that just want to move on from them.  Some GMs are just bad at getting trade value.  Look at Chip cutting DeSean Jackson for nothing.  Then look at Howie being able to turn Sam Bradford into a 1st round pick.  I'm not sure what went on with the Lions but they were in trade talks with the Eagles last year then picked them up again.  So it's not like Slay was in demand with other teams going after him, the Eagles didn't seem to have competition.

Ertz would be attractive to many teams, and Howie doesn't have to trade him he can keep him and Goedert through Ertz' contract.  So if he's on the trading block he can put a high price and let teams negotiate.

It's also an offensive weapon in an offense-driven league so a GM wanting to add a dynamic playmaker for their offense would be interested.

[NOTW]

On 9/16/2020 at 6:09 PM, ManchesterEagle said:

Not read all of the thread. But does anybody disagree with any of this?

1) Ertz is a great player and seems like a great guy. Would be a real shame to lose him.

2) Goedert is pretty close to Ertz right now. He has the potential to be better with his superior blocking and is 5 years younger.

3) It's highly unlikely that Goedert would re-sign if Ertz is extended. He wants to be the number 1 here and although they played them both a lot on Sunday, DP has been reluctant to use 2 TE sets as his base package in the past.

4) Ertz won't come cheap and we are short on salary cap space.

5) If we can get a second or more for him after this season then take it, otherwise let him play out his contract and Comp Pickzzzzzzz

It's a good summary and I think accurate assessment.

If they didn't draft Goedert the conversation would be:  do we get rid of Ertz and hope they draft/sign a better replacement?  As it is, they have someone that is starter quality and actually is a more well-rounded TE with skill set that includes blocking, being more physical and gets better YAC.  But as you said, they also have a great player in Ertz.  

I think it's the perfect storm of 2021 cap being in trouble, Ertz wanting more and having Goedert on his rookie deal and not lacking at the TE position when he is the starter.  

It's going to be one of those unfortunate business decisions.  Ertz has been a great player and teammate for us and would be missed.  But if he can net good value in a trade and save money it is a realistic possibility.

[wtfcares]

20 minutes ago, NOTW said:

I don't see his value the same as Slay for a few reasons.

Different team dynamics and how their leadership value their players.  Some examples:  Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for much less than people expected.  They were stupid and just wanted to get rid of him and O'Brien valued David Johnson, reportedly turning down better offers of draft picks because he really wanted Johnson.  Some teams have a disgruntled player that just want to move on from them.  Some GMs are just bad at getting trade value.  Look at Chip cutting DeSean Jackson for nothing.  Then look at Howie being able to turn Sam Bradford into a 1st round pick.  I'm not sure what went on with the Lions but they were in trade talks with the Eagles last year then picked them up again.  So it's not like Slay was in demand with other teams going after him, the Eagles didn't seem to have competition.

Ertz would be attractive to many teams, and Howie doesn't have to trade him he can keep him and Goedert through Ertz' contract.  So if he's on the trading block he can put a high price and let teams negotiate.

It's also an offensive weapon in an offense-driven league so a GM wanting to add a dynamic playmaker for their offense would be interested.

By all means, if a team is offering a 1st for Ertz, I’d drive him to the airport myself. I just don’t see it happening. It’s already out in public that there’s tension between the 2 sides and Ertz is unhappy with the situation. 
 

My main point though is it’s not worth it to trade him if all were getting offered is a 3rd and a conditional pick. I’d rather we keep him, let him play out his contract, then collect a comp pick after. 

[nipples]

8 minutes ago, wtfcares said:

By all means, if a team is offering a 1st for Ertz, I’d drive him to the airport myself. I just don’t see it happening. It’s already out in public that there’s tension between the 2 sides and Ertz is unhappy with the situation. 
 

My main point though is it’s not worth it to trade him if all were getting offered is a 3rd and a conditional pick. I’d rather we keep him, let him play out his contract, then collect a comp pick after. 

He’s not "young” anymore but still young enough to have some value. He isn’t one of the top 2 tight ends in the league (which is how he wants to be paid) but he’s still probably top 5, at least as a receiving tight end. I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could fetch a 2nd in trade. 
 

In terms of tight end trades, the closest I can think of is when the Saints sent Graham to Seattle. He was one of the top tight ends at the time, only one year younger than Ertz currently is.  The Saints traded Graham and a 4th for Max Unger and a 1st. 
 

That was several years ago now of course, and Graham still had more years on his contract than Ertz but... given that value New Orleans got, I think a second is very doable. And for a 2nd rounder, yes I would trade him and hand the starting job over to Goedert. 

[UK_EaglesFan89]

29 minutes ago, nipples said:

He’s not "young” anymore but still young enough to have some value. He isn’t one of the top 2 tight ends in the league (which is how he wants to be paid) but he’s still probably top 5, at least as a receiving tight end. I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could fetch a 2nd in trade. 

There's zero doubt in my mind he's the 3rd best TE in the league. Kittle is a better all around TE and more dynamic. Kelce is the most dynamic TE in the league and then there is Ertz. Nothing wrong with that at all. But at 29 he's not young and I think given where this team is at the right move would be to trade him. 

[NOTW]

1 hour ago, wtfcares said:

By all means, if a team is offering a 1st for Ertz, I’d drive him to the airport myself. I just don’t see it happening. It’s already out in public that there’s tension between the 2 sides and Ertz is unhappy with the situation. 
 

My main point though is it’s not worth it to trade him if all were getting offered is a 3rd and a conditional pick. I’d rather we keep him, let him play out his contract, then collect a comp pick after. 

I get that.  I think he's worth more than a 3rd and conditional.  I think an excellent offensive playmaker gets more.  I agree not a 1st especially his age.  But you could get some desperate team willing.  I'd say a 2nd round pick and an additional pick, say a 4th or 5th future.  So this year's 2nd and next year's 4th, something like that.  

I think about a desperate GM, a team that needs a spark, a QB that is struggling because he doesn't have any reliable weapons.  A QB would be clamoring for his team to get a player like Ertz to throw to.  Just my opinion, I could definitely be wrong I don't keep up with all the trade values and all that but it does seem there are GMs out there who make some questionable deals and I think Howie could squeeze some better value from the right team.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

9 minutes ago, NOTW said:

But you could get some desperate team willing.  I'd say a 2nd round pick and an additional pick, say a 4th or 5th future.  So this year's 2nd and next year's 4th, something like that.  

I think a 2nd and a future year 4th or 5th is definitely obtainable for Ertz. For a team who think their SB window is the next 1-4 years I think it would be a really good move. 

[EagleVA]

2 hours ago, NOTW said:

Logic:  take away a QBs top receiving weapon so he can grow?  

You call him the top receiving weapon, I call him a security blanket.

Like a child, often times you have to take away their security blanket or pacifier to get them to grow, no difference here, there are other very capable WRs on the team.

[EazyEaglez]

2 hours ago, NOTW said:

What familiarity?  Just facing the same defenses? That's never going to be a huge factor for a player.  Money, coach, QB, scheme, organization, etc.  Up until the argument with Howie, Ertz has had no problem with this organization.  I don't see him out for "revenge."  He'll want to go to the best place for him with the best financial situation.

 

 

Players often bounce within a division, and you don’t think for a moment the Cowboys, Giants, or WTF team couldn’t use a talented TE on the level of Ertz? I could see any one of those teams ponying up the money to play. Also Ertz getting into it with Roseman is also a clear indication that he’s emotionally bothered by all of this. He’s also let it be known he was upset about. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his emotion response to any of this. 

[NOTW]

32 minutes ago, EagleVA said:

You call him the top receiving weapon, I call him a security blanket.

Like a child, often times you have to take away their security blanket or pacifier to get them to grow, no difference here, there are other very capable WRs on the team.

You mean like last year when he had crap to throw to?  

• Jeffrey - injured, and when he's not he's lost a step and has not performed great
• Jackson - performs well for us when not injured.  After a year of not playing, he sat out almost 50% of snaps in week 1 for reasons
• Ward - pulled from the practice squad, ok player and could improve but not someone you rely on
• JJAW - LOL
• Reagor - promising 1st round rookie, still way too early to know what level of play you can expect from him and he's already suffered an injury and was questionable for week 1
• Hightower/Watkins:  late round rookies that you don't expect much out of.  Neither are going to make you forget Ertz

So at WR you have Jackson who is also toward the end of his career, and misses games due to injury and Reagor who is still unproven and already had an injury that almost made him miss week 1.  Goedert is capable of starting so I don't worry about the TE position.  But let's say you trade Ertz this year before the trade deadline.  Wentz will use whatever "security blanket" is capable of caching passes.  That could quickly shift to Goedert because of the TE mismatch against coverage. 

Would you call Goedert a security blanket?  He was the leading receiver in week 1 even with Ertz on the field.  I think you just have always hated Ertz, you've talked about getting rid of him for years.

[NOTW]

23 minutes ago, EazyEaglez said:

Players often bounce within a division, and you don’t think for a moment the Cowboys, Giants, or WTF team couldn’t use a talented TE on the level of Ertz? I could see any one of those teams ponying up the money to play. Also Ertz getting into it with Roseman is also a clear indication that he’s emotionally bothered by all of this. He’s also let it be known he was upset about. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his emotion response to any of this. 

There may be an element of that.  But say a team outside the division with a solid organization and talented QB makes him an offer.  I don't think sticking it to the Eagles by signing with a NFCE team is a factor there.  He is great friends with Wentz and other players and this ONE incident (I'm not aware of anything previously) is an argument about contract in a heated moment.  People have those moments, doesn't mean the entire relationship is soured and these grown men become petty.  You tend to treat every news that is somewhat critical of the team turn into a Spanish soap opera and blow things out of proportion.  The NFL.com article points out:

https://www.nfl.com/news/zach-ertz-howie-roseman-eagles-contract-heated-argument-after-practice

Quote

Rapoport added that the discussion included owner Jeffrey Lurie, and both sides voiced appreciation as well as frustration. The talk ended on a professional tone, with each noting that it wouldn't affect their focus on the field. The Eagles viewed it as constructive and professional in the end.

Stuff like that can happen, but mature people can also move past it.  He very well may be traded or leave in free agency but based what I've seen of his character in his career I would expect it to be mostly amicable.

[EagleVA]

52 minutes ago, NOTW said:

Goedert is capable of starting so I don't worry about the TE position. 

This is what fueled the trade Ertz conversation, you don't need two #1 TE's, trade the guy that has established himself, it's in the best interest of the team,.

Problem is we get these fans who have favorites that put their man crushes of a player over the best interest of the team, they're disgusting as far as I'm concerned.  

[EagleVA]

1 hour ago, NOTW said:

I think you just have always hated Ertz, you've talked about getting rid of him for years.

I have no hate for Ertz, I'm simply a realist.

My realistic view of Ertz has always been he's not a TE, he's a 4th WR that works against LBs and safeties which makes him look like the best receiver on the team.

For a 4th WR, I want someone who's more dynamic with YAC than Ertz, he's pretty much a catch and get tackled immediately 4th WR, we can do better.

 

[GeorgeM37]

On 9/16/2020 at 8:01 AM, EazyEaglez said:

Honestly I wonder how much value Ertz really has. I don’t think he’s going to get a kings ransom. Many teams don’t even use their TEs as much as the Eagles do and teams that do already have that guy. He’s nearing 30 and thinks he should be paid like the best, but frankly he’s not as complete of a TE as those guys. I don’t think his value is as great as we all think it is.

I can think of only Dallas and Kansas City that uses their TE as much as we do.....and yes, Ertz is horrible at blocking....

[GeorgeM37]

26 minutes ago, EagleVA said:

I have no hate for Ertz, I'm simply a realist.

My realistic view of Ertz has always been he's not a TE, he's a 4th WR that works against LBs and safeties which makes him look like the best receiver on the team.

For a 4th WR, I want someone who's more dynamic with YAC than Ertz, he's pretty much a catch and get tackled immediately 4th WR, we can do better.

 

Can I ask why you call him that? I am genuinely curious. The only thing he doesnt do well like Kittle or Kelce is block well.....

[time2rock]

45 minutes ago, EagleVA said:

I have no hate for Ertz, I'm simply a realist.

My realistic view of Ertz has always been he's not a TE, he's a 4th WR that works against LBs and safeties which makes him look like the best receiver on the team.

For a 4th WR, I want someone who's more dynamic with YAC than Ertz, he's pretty much a catch and get tackled immediately 4th WR, we can do better.

 

I don’t know of any "4th WRs” that put up the numbers Ertz does.  Heck I don’t know of many #3 or #2 WRs even that are as consistently productive as he is.  

[EazyEaglez]

44 minutes ago, GeorgeM37 said:

I can think of only Dallas and Kansas City that uses their TE as much as we do.....and yes, Ertz is horrible at blocking....

He’s also not much for breaking tackles. If you need 5 yards, but he catches it a yard short then you’re not getting that yard.

[EagleVA]

3 hours ago, GeorgeM37 said:

Can I ask why you call him that? I am genuinely curious. The only thing he doesnt do well like Kittle or Kelce is block well.....

For the most part Ertz is a possession WR, he typically works in the 7-10 yard range against LBs, One thing that generally characterizes TE's are their toughness and Ertz isn't characterized as tough.

I'm not saying Ertz is a scrub, he's a good possession receiver, when it comes to beating zone coverage, he knows when to lay down, aka find clear lanes for the QB to deliver the pass.

He also works well when covered man to man, he has good quick moves to get open.  

Personally I would have tried to unload him two years ago, his value is beginning to wane due to many upcomming TE's.

[GeorgeM37]

6 minutes ago, EagleVA said:

For the most part Ertz is a possession WR, he typically works in the 7-10 yard range against LBs, One thing that generally characterizes TE's are their toughness and Ertz isn't characterized as tough.

I'm not saying Ertz is a scrub, he's a good possession receiver, when it comes to beating zone coverage, he knows when to lay down, aka find clear lanes for the QB to deliver the pass.

He also works well when covered man to man, he has good quick moves to get open.  

Personally I would have tried to unload him two years ago, his value is beginning to wane due to many upcomming TE's.

I see.....

[Dwide Schrude]

8 hours ago, NOTW said:

I don't see his value the same as Slay for a few reasons.

Different team dynamics and how their leadership value their players.  Some examples:  Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for much less than people expected.  They were stupid and just wanted to get rid of him and O'Brien valued David Johnson, reportedly turning down better offers of draft picks because he really wanted Johnson.  Some teams have a disgruntled player that just want to move on from them.  Some GMs are just bad at getting trade value.  Look at Chip cutting DeSean Jackson for nothing.  Then look at Howie being able to turn Sam Bradford into a 1st round pick.  I'm not sure what went on with the Lions but they were in trade talks with the Eagles last year then picked them up again.  So it's not like Slay was in demand with other teams going after him, the Eagles didn't seem to have competition.

Ertz would be attractive to many teams, and Howie doesn't have to trade him he can keep him and Goedert through Ertz' contract.  So if he's on the trading block he can put a high price and let teams negotiate.

It's also an offensive weapon in an offense-driven league so a GM wanting to add a dynamic playmaker for their offense would be interested.

I agree with your thoughts on Slay. I imagine the CB market this last off-season also had an impact on the Slay trade. You had Byron Jones, James Bradberry, Chris Harris + many others in FA. Also, 6 CB went in the first round. Rumor was the asking price was initially a 1st, and after time the Lions probably realized that 3rd was best they were going to get for a player with one foot out the door. 

[NOTW]

7 hours ago, EagleVA said:

This is what fueled the trade Ertz conversation, you don't need two #1 TE's, trade the guy that has established himself, it's in the best interest of the team,.

Problem is we get these fans who have favorites that put their man crushes of a player over the best interest of the team, they're disgusting as far as I'm concerned.  

Ok but you didn't address what I said and my question. What if Goedert is the go to because the WRs aren't as reliable? Would you call him a security blanket? He was the top receiver last week. 

[NOTW]

6 hours ago, EagleVA said:

I have no hate for Ertz, I'm simply a realist.

My realistic view of Ertz has always been he's not a TE, he's a 4th WR that works against LBs and safeties which makes him look like the best receiver on the team.

For a 4th WR, I want someone who's more dynamic with YAC than Ertz, he's pretty much a catch and get tackled immediately 4th WR, we can do better.

 

He's been the leading receiver for the Eagles for years. He's not a 4th WR, by your logic he's the #1 receiver playing the TE position.