16 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

weirdest recession ever

Strange times, strange recession.  Still a recession.

16 minutes ago, DrPhilly said:

Strange times, strange recession.  Still a recession.

It is, at least by the shorthand definition. 

But it's absolutely weird. 

Here's what's happening during this recession (as least as far as GDP contractions are concerned) that are very atypical:

1. Robust job market. There is a little slowdown in hiring, and some spots where layoffs are happening. But overall we're adding a lot of jobs through two quarters of negative GDP growth.

2. Executives for S&P 500 companies are investing more in their companies than in the past. Some slowdown in hiring but mostly still expanding workforces, and capital investments are happening in place of stock buybacks of previous periods.

 

To me the above signals that the big companies are betting on a short recession and an environment where there's more incentive to operate here in the US.

@vikas83can now tell me how my layman opinion is wrong and I should stick to software development

Just now, JohnSnowsHair said:

It is, at least by the shorthand definition. 

But it's absolutely weird. 

Here's what's happening during this recession (as least as far as GDP contractions are concerned) that are very atypical:

1. Robust job market. There is a little slowdown in hiring, and some spots where layoffs are happening. But overall we're adding a lot of jobs through two quarters of negative GDP growth.

2. Executives for S&P 500 companies are investing more in their companies than in the past. Some slowdown in hiring but mostly still expanding workforces, and capital investments are happening in place of stock buybacks of previous periods.

 

To me the above signals that the big companies are betting on a short recession and an environment where there's more incentive to operate here in the US.

@vikas83can now tell me how my layman opinion is wrong and I should stick to software development

Yeah, I think you've hit the big points.  The effects of the pandemic on the ability to find good people is also playing into this one just to add one more tidbit.

If I was on Team Biden I'd be pushing the narrative that "the recession is due to lingering supply chain issues from the pandemic plus the strain the Ukraine/Russia war puts on the western economies" and then say "it will be very short and mild and without the normal employment issues due to the Biden agenda including Biden's ability to gain overall control of the COVID situation".  What I wouldn't do is try to redefine already accepted definitions of terms.  Of course the left (and increasingly the right) are full out in love with changing what words mean these days.

I'd argue the right's "alternative facts" are far deeper and more damaging than anything the left is doing. The left's attempts to redefine anything seem limited to cultural/social issues, and that sort of thing is something conservatives and progressives have always argued about and I see no reason to believe it will stop. It's inherently more subjective.

The right on the other hand is challenging objective facts. They are making ridiculous assertions about things like the election being stolen, then trying to manufacture a narrative in the absence of any evidence to prove it. Mouth breathers here still hawking things like 2,000 mules as "evidence" show how successful the right has been at getting its cultists to buy their narrative despite any evidence that withstands basic scrutiny supporting it.

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

dude your BDS is off the charts. first off, he said that a year ago. so I dunno why you're talking about it now. second, he's a car guy. saying he'd love to drive it is not surprising. so I'm not even sure what your BDS is trying to get at here, he expressed a sentiment that he'd love to drive an electric American muscle car.

you BDS sufferers figure out a way to twist every damn thing the guy says into an argument of how he's unfit.

He said he was the vice president. Maybe you missed that part.  

1 hour ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd argue the right's "alternative facts" are far deeper and more damaging than anything the left is doing. The left's attempts to redefine anything seem limited to cultural/social issues, and that sort of thing is something conservatives and progressives have always argued about and I see no reason to believe it will stop. It's inherently more subjective.

The right on the other hand is challenging objective facts. They are making ridiculous assertions about things like the election being stolen, then trying to manufacture a narrative in the absence of any evidence to prove it. Mouth breathers here still hawking things like 2,000 mules as "evidence" show how successful the right has been at getting its cultists to buy their narrative despite any evidence that withstands basic scrutiny supporting it.

Alternate facts and changing definition of terms aren't exactly the same item.  In any case, I'm not trying to compare the damage these two sides have done.  I think we've agreed 100x and probably more on that issue.

What I don't like here is the tactic and, while it has gone on in the past, things have escalated over the last decade with the right jumping right in to play the same game.

I love how the same people who hang on Biden's every gaffe had no issue at all with this 

 

30 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

He said he was the vice president. Maybe you missed that part.  

Ok, you're referring to the NYPost article which cut off his whole statement.

He corrected himself immediately. His verbatim full line was "I’m not going to be able to do it because I can’t drive a vehicle while I’m vice president, while I'm president, any more than I could when I was vice president"

This is a clear moment where he misspoke, he immediately corrected himself and the full line included referencing his time as VP when he operated under the same set of rules. 

This is BDS, pure and simple. 

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Alternate facts and changing definition of terms aren't exactly the same item.  In any case, I'm not trying to compare the damage these two sides have done.  I think we've agreed 100x and probably more on that issue.

What I don't like here is the tactic and, while it has gone on in the past, things have escalated over the last decade with the right jumping right in to play the same game.

Nobody is redefining the term recession. What is being argued is what economic conditions need to be there to qualify as a recession.

The shorthand qualification has long been two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But that is mainly a quick guideline use by the community because it's easy to understand, and typically correlates with a host of other negative economic factors. 

In the US, NBER is the arbiter of defining a recession. Their exact qualifications - dating back to at least 2008 - are "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Based on the NBER definition from 2008, we're not in a recession because employment is still up and, retail sales over the last few months have not declined (though there are some signs of that changing in the last month or so, we have not seen a decline 'lasting more than a few months'). 

So when the Dems argue we're not in a recession, they're correct when judging by NBER's metrics.

But it's a stupid argument because clearly there are signs of economic decline. The question at this point is how much and where. And the Democrats sitting back and saying "well technically we're not in a recession because.." is tone deaf and stupid politics. 

I just successfully insulated myself from reality in SoCal for 8 days, aided by sun, sand, surf, women, and intoxicants, not necessarily in that order, depending in the day.

So, really, I'm asking all my fellow backers here in CVON to give me the skinny. How've the past few weeks been for Joey B? From a distance, it seems like it's been a net positive:

-Killed another top terrorist, as Democratic presidents are wont to do.

-Told China to go F themselves and waved some American deek in their faces from neighboring waters.

-Movement in the legislature to ensure the sanctity of Electoral Vote certification.

-Externally, Kansas seems to at least tentatively indicate that some Democrats are ready for a midterm bloodbath.

-Sicced the Feds on the pigs who murdered Breonna Taylor.

-Gas has been steadily dropping. It was almost down to $5/gal at some places in San Diego before I left.

-Public dismantling of Trumplican/alt-right charade has continued from J6 Comm. and Alex Jones' court-ordered spanking

So, Am I missing anything? Altogether I see minor victories on the economic, political, geopolitical, and social justice fronts. Coming on the heels of the

Anyway, looks like I've got some trolling to catch up on the heels of the Roe, maybe the Team Blue has some momentum carrying them into the fall. Massive gains are still a pipedream, but maybe some gains in the house and at least push in the Senate don't seem far out of the realm of possibility. Locally speaking, Fetterman has been entertaining to watch flexing his political muscle for the modern age by cool eviscerated Oz's fake persona, and Shapiro seems to be picking up steam with ruthlessly painting Mastriano as the insurrectionist scumbag that he is.

Winter is coming...but for whom?

Either way, I've got a lot of trolling to catch up on!

2 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I just successfully insulated myself from reality in SoCal for 8 days, aided by sun, sand, surf, women, and intoxicants, not necessarily in that order, depending in the day.

So, really, I'm asking all my fellow backers here in CVON to give me the skinny. How've the past few weeks been for Joey B? From a distance, it seems like it's been a net positive:

-Killed another top terrorist, as Democratic presidents are wont to do.

-Told China to go F themselves and waved some American deek in their faces from neighboring waters.

-Movement in the legislature to ensure the sanctity of Electoral Vote certification.

-Externally, Kansas seems to at least tentatively indicate that some Democrats are ready for a midterm bloodbath.

-Sicced the Feds on the pigs who murdered Breonna Taylor.

-Gas has been steadily dropping. It was almost down to $5/gal at some places in San Diego before I left.

-Public dismantling of Trumplican/alt-right charade has continued from J6 Comm. and Alex Jones' court-ordered spanking

So, Am I missing anything? Altogether I see minor victories on the economic, political, geopolitical, and social justice fronts. Coming on the heels of the

Anyway, looks like I've got some trolling to catch up on the heels of the Roe, maybe the Team Blue has some momentum carrying them into the fall. Massive gains are still a pipedream, but maybe some gains in the house and at least push in the Senate don't seem far out of the realm of possibility. Locally speaking, Fetterman has been entertaining to watch flexing his political muscle for the modern age by cool eviscerated Oz's fake persona, and Shapiro seems to be picking up steam with ruthlessly painting Mastriano as the insurrectionist scumbag that he is.

Winter is coming...but for whom?

Either way, I've got a lot of trolling to catch up on!

Reps showing their a** on the Vet bill.  Biden didn't have much to do with it, it was just the right showing themselves to be the America-hating scumbags that they are, but it certainly doesn't hurt Biden.  Plus, now that they passed that bill and brought a whole lot more attention to it, Biden gets to sign it, so that'll be another win.

53 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

Nobody is redefining the term recession. What is being argued is what economic conditions need to be there to qualify as a recession.

Uhhh.....  I'll take one of your comments and say that I stopped here.  C'mon dude, we have a simple and accepted short hand description.

You want to get all nuancy and everything now don't you.

22 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

Kansas

Now having ratified an abortion legal framework that is more liberal than we have over here in the famous socialist Nordic countries.  Who knew?

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Uhhh.....  I'll take one of your comments and say that I stopped here.  C'mon dude, we have a simple and accepted short hand description.

You want to get all nuancy and everything now don't you.

And it's just that - a shorthand description.

Given the political environment Republicans want to argue that the shorthand description is definitive. But it isn't, and never has been.

And to be sure, if the president was Republican the Democrats would be out there arguing that we're in a recession and the right-wingers here would be coming up with all kinds of rationalizations about why it isn't.

I'm just going by the NBER's definition which is the authoritative one here in the US, and they decide whether or not it's actually a recession.

And again, at the end of the day it's a dumb way for the Democrats to politic this issue. They should deflect to NBER and say that the White House doesn't decide if we're in a recession or not, but acknowledge that while some economic indicators remain strong that GDP contraction for two quarters is a concern - and outline what they're working on to address it.

4 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

'm just going by the NBER's definition

Reading their description and a WashPo analysis of the NBER's description the conclusion is that NBER has a rough guideline but not really a definition.  NBER talks generally about declines across the spectrum and lasting "more than a few months" yet they declared one in 2020 that was only about two months long.  I'm happy with a good nuanced set of descriptors/metrics that we can use going forward.  No issue with that.

 

Anyway, we can agree that the Dems have botched the optics which was one of my main issues.  The other one of redefining terms we can take up in some other example.  Let me just throw out some right now so we know what to look for.  The right has tried to redefine the term "CRT" and "groomer".  The left has done the same with the words like "racist", "woman" and "rape".  There are plenty of other examples from both sides.

 

5 hours ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

I'd argue the right's "alternative facts" are far deeper and more damaging than anything the left is doing. The left's attempts to redefine anything seem limited to cultural/social issues, and that sort of thing is something conservatives and progressives have always argued about and I see no reason to believe it will stop. It's inherently more subjective.

The right on the other hand is challenging objective facts. They are making ridiculous assertions about things like the election being stolen, then trying to manufacture a narrative in the absence of any evidence to prove it. Mouth breathers here still hawking things like 2,000 mules as "evidence" show how successful the right has been at getting its cultists to buy their narrative despite any evidence that withstands basic scrutiny supporting it.

If I may...

Is that truth, or your truth?

6 minutes ago, Arthur Jackson said:

If I may...

Is that truth, or your truth?

It's a rendered opinion.

14 minutes ago, JohnSnowsHair said:

It's a rendered opinion.

Yes, but is it opinion, or your opi...

oh forget it I can't do this.

That was my bad @JohnSnowsHair... not about you

You don't feed gremlins after midnight

you don't give michael j. fox a can of soda

and you don't debate on cvon

WSJ: Republicans Lobby Oil Industry to Denounce Tax-and-Climate Bill

... Isn't that supposed to go the other way around?

WSJ: Democrats’ plan includes measures lauded by some in the oil-and-gas industry, frustrating Republicans

Oh, I see. A "climate bill" that the oil-and-gas industry likes and supports needs to be lobbied against for purely political reasons.

This is the DC mindset. Can't do anything that might have popular support and move the nation forward if it gives the other team a win.

Corporate leaders call on Congress to promptly pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

 

As the U.S. Senate prepares to debate the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), dozens of leading U.S. companies are urging lawmakers to promptly pass this landmark legislation, which includes the most ambitious climate, clean energy, and environmental justice investments in American history. 

More than 40 large companies and associations—including bp America, Danone North America, DSM North America, Ford Motor Company, Holcim US, JLL, Johnson Controls, Levi Strauss & Co., Logitech, Lyft, Ørsted North America, PSEG, SAP, Shell USA, and Unilever United States, among others—released a letter today addressed to members of Congress whose votes will be critical in the coming days to advancing the legislation. These companies represent nearly $1 trillion in annual revenue and nearly 1.4 million global employees. In the letter, they called on Congress to "quickly pass the Inflation Reduction Act to deliver the investments and incentives Americans need today and to power the economy of tomorrow.”  

"It is past time to invest in our country’s shift to a clean energy economy and to confront the threat of climate change. The investments in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would reduce climate-related risks across the economy while combating inflation, reducing costs for families, and improving energy security. While these investments must be paid for, the economic benefits outweigh the costs. This package promises to unleash American innovation and ingenuity—and to foster the creation of millions of jobs as a result,” the signatories wrote. 

Organized by the sustainability nonprofit Ceres and the independent research organization Business Forward, the letter is the latest sign of the strong corporate support for the IRA’s climate provisions, which are projected to reduce emissions by 40% or more by 2030 while reducing energy costs, volatility, and risk. Since Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin announced the deal last week, many large companies and their executives—including Carrier, Cummins, Equinor, General Motors, Johnson Controls, Kaiser Permanente, Salesforce, Siemens, United Airlines, Walmart, and Workday—have also released individual statements or spoken in support of the IRA, as have trade associations such as the Clean Energy Buyers Alliance, the Retail Industry Leaders Association, and the Sustainable Food Policy Alliance.  

Quote

"We are thankful to Sens. Schumer, Manchin, and Sinema for negotiating this important deal, and to all other lawmakers who have helped to shape it over many months. By fighting inflation, advancing American energy security, strengthening domestic supply chains, investing in advanced manufacturing capabilities, and cementing U.S. global competitiveness as a clean energy leader, the Inflation Reduction Act is critical to meeting the unique economic needs of this moment,” said Zach Friedman, director of federal policy, Ceres. "That’s why leading companies have been among the strongest advocates for this legislation for more than a year—and why they are today making this final urgent call for Congress to pass the most impactful climate legislation in American history.”

"The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will bring good jobs and investments to communities which have long been locked out of our energy economy, creating opportunities for small businesses in America’s power sector for years to come,” said Liz Fairchild, executive director, Business Forward. "Renewables will power nearly two-thirds of the world's economy by 2050. This package is the difference between catching up or falling further behind in the global energy race.”

 

But Republicans don't want to sign on because.... politics. Their concerns aren't that the bill is good policy, it's that it gives Biden and the Dems something to run on.

2 minutes ago, M.C. said:

They prewrite probably half a dozen of these and pick whichever one is most appropriate to get it published quick. Then they fill in details with updates to the original.

This is not a big deal.