April 15, 20214 yr 18 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Someone spin this into good news https://news.yahoo.com/america-is-about-to-hit-a-vaccine-wall-as-demand-drops-with-or-without-johnson-johnson-162241805.html "Vaccination rates will then slow, and Surgo’s projections show that if what Americans now say about their preferred timelines for getting vaccinated is true — "as soon as it’s available,” "in three months,” "in a year,” "don’t know” and "would not get vaccinated” — overall U.S. coverage will plateau around 52 percent of the population by July. When combined with people who have already been infected, the overall immunity rate overall may hit 65 percent by then, according to Surgo — still not high enough for herd immunity." This is still in line with most protections and shouldn't be a shock to anyone. Unless you believed the one guy who wrote an article for the WSJ saying we'd have herd immunity by May, which I personally disagreed with. I've posted the McKinsey protections before and feel like they are still the most thorough in accounting for all factors and variables. Check back in August and see if 55% of the total population hasn't been vaccinated by then. 11 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: The $100 gift card strategy is not the answer to herd immunity , only locking these people out of society is and it will be done if that is the last resort which it will be Oh ok.
April 15, 20214 yr people have been making dumb choices forever. somehow, despite ourselves, we still continue to survive. so we'll do what we always do. those with a few brain cells to rub together will continue to be significantly less wrong than those with none, and we'll sit back and laugh at each other while reveling in our own superiority.
April 15, 20214 yr 9 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: And stupid More than the stupid ones who just don't trust vaccines, though, there are going to be a lot more of whom asking to get a third dose will just be too much of an interruption in their pathetic lives. "Wahhh, I already got vaccinated. A third appointment is just too much! I have so many shows to binge on Netflix! Life is so hard! It's so difficult to do things! When are people going to care about my life and my petty problems! If there's one thing I can't handle it's a minor inconvenience! Look at me, I'm entitled and need attention! WAHHHHHH!"
April 15, 20214 yr I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a public push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022.
April 15, 20214 yr McKinsey article link for anyone who cares: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end
April 15, 20214 yr 8 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. Didn’t you say the numbers would be low by the fall of this year?
April 15, 20214 yr 9 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. I totally see the call for annual shots like the flu. Right now it’s about getting a pandemic under control. By fall it’ll be about how much money the drug companies are making off of it. This is not a new thing and shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
April 15, 20214 yr 4 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Didn’t you say the numbers would be low by the fall of this year? Yes and I still think they will.
April 15, 20214 yr 13 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right.
April 15, 20214 yr 2 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right. Welcome to reality. Sucks doesn't it?
April 15, 20214 yr 5 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right. Captain Sunshine is going down with the USS Positivity while more people realize the truth
April 15, 20214 yr 9 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right. The biggest unknown factor is the percentage of the unvaccinated population with natural immunity. We don't have a clear enough idea of the percentage now, and I'm not sure we will anytime soon. But it only needs to be about 10% or so for the rate of spread to start to fall off a cliff. I think the tone of the discussion will be pretty different 6-8 weeks from now.
April 15, 20214 yr 53 minutes ago, Dave Moss said: https://twitter.com/jannwolfe/status/1382748358360633344?s=21 Its going to be like the flu shot. We're going to need it every year, if not every 6 months. I got my second dose of Pfizer this week, and I'm expecting to need another one before the end of 2021.
April 15, 20214 yr 2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I think the tone of the discussion will be pretty different 6-8 weeks from now. I disagree
April 15, 20214 yr 12 minutes ago, DBW said: I totally see the call for annual shots like the flu. Right now it’s about getting a pandemic under control. By fall it’ll be about how much money the drug companies are making off of it. This is not a new thing and shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. I've got quite a few shares of BNTX, MRNA, NVAX, and CVAC so I wouldn't be opposed to a mass rollout of a 4th and 5th booster for selfish reasons, but I just don't think it's very likely. Only time will tell I guess.
April 15, 20214 yr Some of you just seem to think the large numbers of people who refuse the vaccine is not a big problem and there will not be 100 % compliance with boosters
April 15, 20214 yr 22 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said: Welcome to reality. Sucks doesn't it? I still think we'll get there, but this is definitely going to take another year, maybe even a little longer.
April 15, 20214 yr 22 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: But it only needs to be about 10% or so for the rate of spread to start to fall off a cliff. I mean, we've had 32 million confirmed cases, we have to be close, right?
April 15, 20214 yr 25 minutes ago, Gannan said: Its going to be like the flu shot. We're going to need it every year, if not every 6 months. I got my second dose of Pfizer this week, and I'm expecting to need another one before the end of 2021. I've also been saying that simply getting it under control with a largely predictable epidemiology is still a big win. Turning a pandemic into an endemic disease is a major accomplishment; we don't have to eradicate it to return to normal life.
April 15, 20214 yr 23 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said: I've got quite a few shares of BNTX, MRNA, NVAX, and CVAC so I wouldn't be opposed to a mass rollout of a 4th and 5th booster for selfish reasons, but I just don't think it's very likely. Only time will tell I guess. Funny. So do fauci, gates, the head of the cdc, and 16 doctors in Wuhan. 😂 😉
April 15, 20214 yr The majority of those confirmed cases will get vaccinated presumably, but natural immunity will begin to wane at some point as well so it's not necessarily a given that the number will go up, and if the SA variant begins to take hold on multiple states, then the number couple go down fairly quick. But I think both of those are less likely, so yeah if we're already there, then adding another 55% on top of that by July or August gets us to 65% of the total population with some form of immunity, and I just don't see how there's much of an opportunity for this thing to keep spreading at these rates.
April 15, 20214 yr 10 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said: I mean, we've had 32 million confirmed cases, we have to be close, right? 78m are fully vaccinated. Plus the 32m who had covid. 1/3 of the population theoretically is immune to some level. Yet the numbers are steady at 70K new cases a day. It would take roughly 9 years for the other 230m to catch it if we stopped vaccinating today.
April 15, 20214 yr 2 minutes ago, DBW said: 78m are fully vaccinated. Plus the 32m who had covid. 1/3 of the population theoretically is immune to some level. Yet the numbers are steady at 70K new cases a day. At this rate, it’ll take close to 9 years before everyone is either vaccinated or catches it. There's significant overlap between these two groups, so you can't just add them together.
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