McKinsey article link for anyone who cares:

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end

8 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. 

Didn’t you say the numbers would be low by the fall of this year?

9 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. 

I totally see the call for annual shots like the flu.  Right now it’s about getting a pandemic under control. By fall it’ll be about how much money the drug companies are making off of it.  This is not a new thing and shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  

4 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

Didn’t you say the numbers would be low by the fall of this year?

Yes and I still think they will. 

13 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I'm not sure I share Bourla's view that annual vaccinations are likely. I'd say a third booster is, sometime in the winter to spring timeframe, but beyond that I doubt we'll ever see a pubic push for another one due to how low the numbers will be by fall 2022. 

 

When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right.

2 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

 

When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right.

Welcome to reality. Sucks doesn't it?

5 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

 

When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right.

Captain Sunshine  is going down with the USS Positivity while more people realize the truth

9 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

 

When they announced the vaccine, I tried to temper expectations and told people that I didn't think herd immunity was likely until probably spring 2022 at the earliest. I'm starting to doubt even that as a possibility, but you seem to be more or less falling in line with it. I hope you're right.

The biggest unknown factor is the percentage of the unvaccinated population with natural immunity. We don't have a clear enough idea of the percentage now, and I'm not sure we will anytime soon. But it only needs to be about 10% or so for the rate of spread to start to fall off a cliff. I think the tone of the discussion will be pretty different 6-8 weeks from now.

53 minutes ago, Dave Moss said:

https://twitter.com/jannwolfe/status/1382748358360633344?s=21

Its going to be like the flu shot. We're going to need it every year, if not every 6 months. I got my second dose of Pfizer this week, and I'm expecting to need another one before the end of 2021. 

2 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 I think the tone of the discussion will be pretty different 6-8 weeks from now.

I disagree 

12 minutes ago, DBW said:

I totally see the call for annual shots like the flu.  Right now it’s about getting a pandemic under control. By fall it’ll be about how much money the drug companies are making off of it.  This is not a new thing and shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  

I've got quite a few shares of BNTX, MRNA, NVAX, and CVAC so I wouldn't be opposed to a mass rollout of a 4th and 5th booster for selfish reasons, but I just don't think it's very likely. Only time will tell I guess.

Some of you just seem to think the large numbers of people who refuse the vaccine is not a big problem and there will not be 100 % compliance with boosters

22 minutes ago, Joe Shades 73 said:

Welcome to reality. Sucks doesn't it?

 

I still think we'll get there, but this is definitely going to take another year, maybe even a little longer.

22 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

 But it only needs to be about 10% or so for the rate of spread to start to fall off a cliff.

I mean, we've had 32 million confirmed cases, we have to be close, right?

 

25 minutes ago, Gannan said:

Its going to be like the flu shot. We're going to need it every year, if not every 6 months. I got my second dose of Pfizer this week, and I'm expecting to need another one before the end of 2021. 

 

I've also been saying that simply getting it under control with a largely predictable epidemiology is still a big win. Turning a pandemic into an endemic disease is a major accomplishment; we don't have to eradicate it to return to normal life.

23 minutes ago, we_gotta_believe said:

I've got quite a few shares of BNTX, MRNA, NVAX, and CVAC so I wouldn't be opposed to a mass rollout of a 4th and 5th booster for selfish reasons, but I just don't think it's very likely. Only time will tell I guess.

Funny. So do fauci, gates, the head of the cdc, and 16 doctors in Wuhan. 😂 😉 

The majority of those confirmed cases will get vaccinated presumably, but natural immunity will begin to wane at some point as well so it's not necessarily a given that the number will go up, and if the SA variant begins to take hold on multiple states, then the number couple go down fairly quick. But I think both of those are less likely, so yeah if we're already there, then adding another 55% on top of that by July or August gets us to 65% of the total population with some form of immunity, and I just don't see how there's much of an opportunity for this thing to keep spreading at these rates. 

10 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I mean, we've had 32 million confirmed cases, we have to be close, right?

 

78m are fully vaccinated.  Plus the 32m who had covid.  1/3 of the population theoretically is immune to some level.  Yet the numbers are steady at 70K new cases a day.  It would take roughly 9 years for the other 230m to catch it if we stopped vaccinating today.  

2 minutes ago, DBW said:

78m are fully vaccinated.  Plus the 32m who had covid.  1/3 of the population theoretically is immune to some level.  Yet the numbers are steady at 70K new cases a day.  At this rate, it’ll take close to 9 years before everyone is either vaccinated or catches it.  

There's significant overlap between these two groups, so you can't just add them together.

Not even may yet and the positivity in here is starting to fade 

Just now, we_gotta_believe said:

There's significant overlap between these two groups, so you can't just add them together.

Of course but without knowing that number I’m putting a loose estimate on the outlook and pace at which we’re  vaccinating and it’s spreading.  The point is we need to get people vaccinated if we ever want it to "go away” which I don’t think will ever happen 

Just now, Joe Shades 73 said:

Not even may yet and the positivity in here is starting to fade 

You, of all people, think positivity is fading? No way, man.

4 minutes ago, DBW said:

Of course but without knowing that number I’m putting a loose estimate on the outlook and pace at which we’re  vaccinating and it’s spreading.  The point is we need to get people vaccinated if we ever want it to "go away” which I don’t think will ever happen 

It will probably end up being more than half of that 32M getting the shot at the very least, likely more. In any case, you guys have to realize that most states just recently opened up eligibility to all adults, so that effect on cases won't be seen for another month or two at least. That's why I said you guys need to check back in around mid-June before getting too bent out of shape on the outlook of where we might be headed.

3 minutes ago, DBW said:

Of course but without knowing that number I’m putting a loose estimate on the outlook and pace at which we’re  vaccinating and it’s spreading.  The point is we need to get people vaccinated if we ever want it to "go away” which I don’t think will ever happen 

Which brings us back to forced vaccinations. Maybe not by the government but there are ways to do it as have already been said

PA is basically at 25% full vaccination, 41% w/ one dose. That's further than I would have assumed we'd gotten, so it's ramped up pretty good. I would think things should drop off soon here, but we'll have to see how much the J&J fiasco slows things down. I think the cycle is going to help us, since we'll be vaccinating and the weather will be in its most favorable period.