DeVonta Smith (Alabama WR) -- DRAFTED BY EAGLES #10!

[philafan4o8]

46 minutes ago, What The F said:

Id seriously consider a trade down into the mid teens maybe? Im not sold on Waddle. Unless he's the pick around 15ish? 

Correct, if Chase, Smith, Pitts, Slater, Sewell, Horn, Surtain are off the board, I am trading down in a heartbeat. Obviously this scenario only happens if 4 QB (not 5) go off the board in top 11. 

In this case, I trade down into the late teens or early 20s to target Greg Newsome.

[Infam]

12 hours ago, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I like Waddle a lot. I like Smith a lot. But both come with concerns and a question around whether they fit what we need. 

I like both a lot. I did from the start, really - my two favorite receivers in this draft.

In the end you look at traits with Waddle, and superhuman speed will never be out of style. You can teach all the other stuff to this kid, but he will always be absurdly fast.

And Smith has superstar written all over him. I have no clue how people doubt this dude.

[philafan4o8]

2 hours ago, Infam said:

I like both a lot. I did from the start, really - my two favorite receivers in this draft.

In the end you look at traits with Waddle, and superhuman speed will never be out of style. You can teach all the other stuff to this kid, but he will always be absurdly fast.

And Smith has superstar written all over him. I have no clue how people doubt this dude.

Agree with you on Smith. Blows my mind. Route running will never go out of style also and that is better than speed in my book

[Infam]

45 minutes ago, philafan4o8 said:

Agree with you on Smith. Blows my mind. Route running will never go out of style also and that is better than speed in my book

Agreed. Then again I bet some coaches would think they can teach that..

[UK_EaglesFan89]

3 hours ago, Infam said:

I like both a lot. I did from the start, really - my two favorite receivers in this draft.

In the end you look at traits with Waddle, and superhuman speed will never be out of style. You can teach all the other stuff to this kid, but he will always be absurdly fast.

And Smith has superstar written all over him. I have no clue how people doubt this dude.

I think with Smith it is the size thing. And I do get that as I've gone back and forth a little myself.

But ultimately he's played at the top level of college. He's played against NFL starting CBs and he doesn't have an injury history. He can handle the hits and physicality or at least he has so far. 

[time2rock]

Even with superstar written all over him, I still have a much stronger preference to grab one of the top CBs with 12 and address WR on day 2.  

[Infam]

7 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Even with superstar written all over him, I still have a much stronger preference to grab one of the top CBs with 12 and address WR on day 2.  

It's value versus need. Smith is value..

[time2rock]

3 minutes ago, Infam said:

It's value versus need. Smith is value..

But is it?  I read this before and it was discussed again recently by Peter King (in his recent FMIA piece).  He points out that receivers drafted in the 2nd round are equally productive as those drafted in the 1st (data since 2016):

Quote

In the last five drafts, 17 wideouts have gone in first rounds, with 26 second-rounders. Breaking it down by production in an average season shows second-rounders have been close to the production level of the top picks.

• Average season of all 1st-round wide receivers drafted since 2016: 42.3 receptions, 600.5 yards, 14.2 yards per catch.
• Average season of all 2nd-round wide receivers drafted since 2016: 42.5 receptions, 538.7 yards, 12.7 yards per catch.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/

[ManchesterEagle]

16 hours ago, philafan4o8 said:

Correct, if Chase, Smith, Pitts, Slater, Sewell, Horn, Surtain are off the board, I am trading down in a heartbeat. Obviously this scenario only happens if 4 QB (not 5) go off the board in top 11. 

In this case, I trade down into the late teens or early 20s to target Greg Newsome.

This would be worst case scenario for me. I don't think Waddle is the right pick for us. 

Likewise - I'm looking to trade down anywhere from 15-22 in that case and pick Farley or Newsome. 

[Infam]

Just now, time2rock said:

But is it?  I read this before and it was discussed again recently by Peter King (in his recent FMIA piece).  He points out that receivers drafted in the 2nd round are equally productive as those drafted in the 1st (data since 2016):

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/

Oh sure, go with it. This is not me producing scientific evidence that Smith will be a star. 

This is my gut telling me so. Then again, those statistics don't really mean much to me either when it comes down to a guy that has defied those odds before.

[ManchesterEagle]

12 minutes ago, time2rock said:

Even with superstar written all over him, I still have a much stronger preference to grab one of the top CBs with 12 and address WR on day 2.  

 

4 minutes ago, Infam said:

It's value versus need. Smith is value..

I think the pick will be Surtain or Horn, but if they are both gone and Smith is there, I'm definitely taking Smith. If we don't go corner in the first, we need to be aggressive in making sure we get one with our second pick. That may mean a trade up.

[Infam]

Just now, ManchesterEagle said:

 

I think the pick will be Surtain or Horn, but if they are both gone and Smith is there, I'm definitely taking Smith. If we don't go corner in the first, we need to be aggressive in making sure we get one with our second pick. That may mean a trade up.

I'm not sure they really think along these lines this year. If this is a two year plan, they might not look that much for need and just draft guys they like at a given place in the draft.

[time2rock]

7 minutes ago, ManchesterEagle said:

I think the pick will be Surtain or Horn, but if they are both gone and Smith is there, I'm definitely taking Smith. If we don't go corner in the first, we need to be aggressive in making sure we get one with our second pick. That may mean a trade up.

I think you are probably right (but with Howie calling the shots you just never know).  It will be interesting if all 3 are gone by 12 ... if Waddle is there, is he the pick?  And super interesting if all 4 are gone ... then who does Howie roll the dice on?  Four more days!  

[ManchesterEagle]

18 minutes ago, Infam said:

I'm not sure they really think along these lines this year. If this is a two year plan, they might not look that much for need and just draft guys they like at a given place in the draft.

Hmm - will be interesting if they do go in that direction. But the cupboard at corner is so bare, I kind of feel like they have to address it in the first two rounds. Even if you forget about this year - it will be even more of a need next year.

[ManchesterEagle]

17 minutes ago, time2rock said:

I think you are probably right (but with Howie calling the shots you just never know).  It will be interesting if all 3 are gone by 12 ... if Waddle is there, is he the pick?  And super interesting if all 4 are gone ... then who does Howie roll the dice on?  Four more days!  

Yeah agreed - it does seem to make sense to take one of those three guys and probably one of them will be there. But

1) We don't know if the Eagles scouts don't like any of Horn, Surtain or Smith. 

2) All 3 could be gone and then it's an absolute lottery. Slater could be the pick if he's still there. Waddle would be a popular pick and makes sense from a value perspective. Similarities to Reagor and injury history would scare me off at 12 though. Would they risk Farley at 12? Howie could also easily reach for Paye or Phillips in that scenario.

[Cochis_Calhoun]

3 hours ago, time2rock said:

But is it?  I read this before and it was discussed again recently by Peter King (in his recent FMIA piece).  He points out that receivers drafted in the 2nd round are equally productive as those drafted in the 1st (data since 2016):

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/

To be fair, the Eagles probably bring the first round numbers down a 150 yards by themselves.

[time2rock]

17 minutes ago, Cochis_Calhoun said:

To be fair, the Eagles probably bring the first round numbers down a 150 yards by themselves.

The data in King's analysis started in 2016.  Since then we've only made 2 WR picks in the top 2 rounds ... Reagor in '20 and JJAW in '19.  Right now I'd say they cancel each other out.

[pgcd3]

I like Smith.  I don't any analysis on size fits well because no one with his size was rated as highly or produced as much at a major school.  He could be exactly what we're looking for.  He's not my top choice but if you told me he turned out to be a great player I wouldn't be surprised

[Cochis_Calhoun]

17 hours ago, time2rock said:

The data in King's analysis started in 2016.  Since then we've only made 2 WR picks in the top 2 rounds ... Reagor in '20 and JJAW in '19.  Right now I'd say they cancel each other out.

I was being a little bit sarcastic with 150 yards but lets be honest Reagor and JJAW ain't raising those averages are they.

Since 2015 we've drafted two first round and one 2nd round receiver and none of them broke 400 yards for their first season (JJAW hasn't broken 300 yet for his career), so yeah we lower the average.

[Cochis_Calhoun]

9 hours ago, pgcd3 said:

I like Smith.  I don't any analysis on size fits well because no one with his size was rated as highly or produced as much at a major school.  He could be exactly what we're looking for.  He's not my top choice but if you told me he turned out to be a great player I wouldn't be surprised

That's my view on Smith, the guy holds the career, single season and single game receiving yardage and TD records for Alabama, better than Julio Jones, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley. If he's there at 12 we should run to the podium, he's another one of those where the scouts are ignoring production at the top level of college football in favour of some dubious mathematical analysis around a narrow dataset that looks more like confirmation bias than actual statistical analysis.

[philafan4o8]

2 more days until smith is an Eagle.

no rumors connecting eagles and smith so that is a good sign

[rrfierce]

Starting to think it'll be smith, which im ok with

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 hour ago, rrfierce said:

Starting to think it'll be smith, which im ok with

I go back and forth. I'm not sure it's going to be Smith at this particular moment. I think he may be off the board by then actually. 

[ManchesterEagle]

On 4/27/2021 at 10:54 AM, Cochis_Calhoun said:

That's my view on Smith, the guy holds the career, single season and single game receiving yardage and TD records for Alabama, better than Julio Jones, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley. If he's there at 12 we should run to the podium, he's another one of those where the scouts are ignoring production at the top level of college football in favour of some dubious mathematical analysis around a narrow dataset that looks more like confirmation bias than actual statistical analysis.

 

On 4/27/2021 at 2:29 PM, philafan4o8 said:

2 more days until smith is an Eagle.

no rumors connecting eagles and smith so that is a good sign

 

On 4/27/2021 at 5:35 PM, UK_EaglesFan89 said:

I go back and forth. I'm not sure it's going to be Smith at this particular moment. I think he may be off the board by then actually. 

I’m actually moving towards drafting Smith if he and both corners are there. And then trade up for Newcomb or Samuel in the second.

I just think he is an out and out baller. Only knock is his size and WRs are really protected now. 
 

Plus he is one of the top ranked players against press coverage.

[D-Shiznit]