EMB Blog: 2023 Offseason - NO POLITICS - Page 128 - TATE Classics

February 24, 20232 yr

2 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

Reasons I don't take RB in the first round no matter what:

1. Can find quality RBs in mid rounds, especially if you have a quality OL blocking for them.

2. Because of that, you want to invest in the first round in positions that are not just more important, but harder to hit on in the later rounds.

3. Smart teams don't pay big money to RBs. So if you spend a first round pick on a RB and he absolutely balls out, a smart team would not re-sign him. Meaning you spent a first round pick on a 4 year investment.

4. It's a position that generally declines around the age of 27.

Any pick you waste on a RB in the first round is a pick that could've gone to bolster a more important position that is harder to fill. It's just not a wise investment, no matter what. Even if it's a generational RB, you can still win Super Bowls with guys you can get in the mid rounds.

The fifth year option is a huge bonus, I think even more so for RBs. You get that one extra cheap year, they’re usually around age 27/28, so you can let ‘em go or trade them if you aren’t in a good position at the time.

It wouldn’t be my preference to take an RB in the first, but at 30, with this team and only if Bijan is sitting there (I don’t think he will be), you’d have to give it some serious thought

February 24, 20232 yr

Won’t be there at 30 we have luxury of two 1’s. Problem is we need a corner

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February 24, 20232 yr

3 minutes ago, TorontoEagle said:

The fifth year option is a huge bonus, I think even more so for RBs. You get that one extra cheap year, they’re usually around age 27/28, so you can let ‘em go or trade them if you aren’t in a good position at the time.

It wouldn’t be my preference to take an RB in the first, but at 30, with this team and only if Bijan is sitting there (I don’t think he will be), you’d have to give it some serious thought

I couldn't justify it because the difference between Robinson and say Spears, Brown, Gibbs, Achane in the Eagles offense is going to be smaller than say Branch, Nijigba, Antonio Johnson, Torrence, etc that you'd get at their respective positions in a later round.

I can't remember the last time a team took a RB in the first round and when you looked back on the move 5-10 years later thought of it as a good move. I just don't see how in any scenario you could be sitting there at 30 and pass up a safety/CB/EDGE/WR/OL you think has a chance to be part of your core for the next 5-10 years, for a freaking RB. The most replaceable position in the sport.

February 24, 20232 yr

1 hour ago, Sack that QB said:

I can't wait for the kelly green alternates to go on sale. I assume at some point this offseason the Eagles are going to have an official unveiling. Any idea when that will be?

Guess is somwtime between mid-May and mid-July.

February 24, 20232 yr

1 minute ago, Sack that QB said:

Reasons I don't take RB in the first round no matter what:

1. Can find quality RBs in mid rounds, especially if you have a quality OL blocking for them.

2. Because of that, yo, I u want to invest in the first round in positions that are not just more important, but harder to hit on in the later rounds.

3. Smart teams don't pay big money to RBs. So if you spend a first round pick on a RB and he absolutely balls out, a smart team would not re-sign him. Meaning you spent a first round pick on a 4 year investment.

4. It's a position that generally declines around the age of 27.

Any pick you waste on a RB in the first round is a pick that could've gone to bolster a more important position that is harder to fill. It's just not a wise investment, no matter what. Even if it's a generational RB, you can still win Super Bowls with guys you can get in the mid rounds.

OK, I hear you and don't disagree with any of your points. But, look back at the DL draft stats I shared earlier. 6 out of 11 DL picks the Eagles made didn't get a 2nd contract with the Eagles. 3 of them didn't even make it past 3 years.

Let me take it a step further. They've made 28 1st round picks over the last 30 years. 16 of them didn't get a 2nd contract with the Eagles. No idea how that holds up against the rest of the league, but basically the Eagles have a 50% chance their 1st rounder is here for the long haul.

Yes, you can find value at RB in the middle rounds but if Robinson is head and shoulders above the rest, taking him at 31 makes a ton of sense. Would you rather 5 years of Robinson, or 4 years of a lesser talent from the middle rounds?

February 24, 20232 yr

No idea why my post formatted like that.

One more thing. Robinson JUST turned 21 on January 30 so in the 1st, you have him until he's 26. Who knows what RB contract values will be in 5 years. Maybe as the NFL catches on, their contracts continue to get smalller and the Eagles can lock him up for a few more years after that.

Either way, you've got him in his prime with a 5th year option on a super team friendly deal.

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February 24, 20232 yr

Speaking of Marcus Smith, I was randomly on his wiki page today. Apparently he is a published author

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February 24, 20232 yr

13 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I can't remember the last time a team took a RB in the first round and when you looked back on the move 5-10 years later thought of it as a good move.

Keep in mind that we haven't had a ton of first-round RBs in general, but...

2019: Jacobs
2018: Barkley (would have been great as a pick in the 20s, but obviously not worth #2 overall)
2017: CMC
2016: Zeke (was worth being a top 15 pick)
2015: Gurley (elite play for a short period)

I agree that taking RBs early is normally suboptimal, but you do get to a point that it's worth it.

February 24, 20232 yr

6 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I can't remember the last time a team took a RB in the first round and when you looked back on the move 5-10 years later thought of it as a good move.

Interesting premise. You'd have to go back quite a few years. I would say:

2000 -- Shaun Alexander

2001 -- LaDanian Tomlinson

2007 -- Adrian Peterson

It's pretty darn rare.

February 24, 20232 yr

Will be difficult for there to be a scenario where the Eagles should be selecting any player at 30. Very limited picks, really need to hope they can get a team desperate to move up to get some day two picks from them.

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February 24, 20232 yr

If Eagles are going premium pick on a RB, for me it's trading back from 30 and Gibbs somehow being there in the 40s/50s.

I think #10 is too early to be in draft no man's land, especially with the # of QBs likely to go top 10. There won't be the pressure of only having one true 1st round talent (Robinson) on the board you feel like you have to take.

February 24, 20232 yr

I hope they don't use a 1st on a RB

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February 24, 20232 yr

1 minute ago, bpac55 said:

OK, I hear you and don't disagree with any of your points. But, look back at the DL draft stats I shared earlier. 6 out of 11 DL picks the Eagles made didn't get a 2nd contract with the Eagles. 3 of them didn't even make it past 3 years.

Let me take it a step further. They've made 28 1st round picks over the last 30 years. 16 of them didn't get a 2nd contract with the Eagles. No idea how that holds up against the rest of the league, but basically the Eagles have a 50% chance their 1st rounder is here for the long haul.

Yes, you can find value at RB in the middle rounds but if Robinson is head and shoulders above the rest, taking him at 31 makes a ton of sense. Would you rather 5 years of Robinson, or 4 years of a lesser talent from the middle rounds?

2022-Jordan Davis | Pick 13 2021- DeVonta Smith | Pick 10 2020-Jalen Reagor | Pick 21 2019- Andre Dillard | Pick 22 2017- Derek Barnett | Pick 14 2016- Carson Wentz | Pick 2 2015- Nelson Agholor | Pick 20 2014- Marcus Smith | Pick 26 2013- Lane Johnson | Pick 4

2012- Fletcher Cox | Pick 12 2011- Danny Watkins | Pick 23
2010- Brandon Graham | Pick 13
2009-Jeremy Maclin | Pick 19 2006- Brodrick Bunkley | Pick 14

2005- Mike Patterson | Pick 31 2004- Shawn Andrews | Pick 16 2003- Jerome McDougle | Pick 15
2002- Lito Sheppard | Pick 26
2001- Freddie Mitchell | Pick 25
2000- Corey Simon | Pick 6
1999- Donovan McNabb | Pick 2
1998- Tra Thomas | Pick 11
1997- Jon Harris | Pick 25
1996- Jermane Mayberry | Pick 25
1995- Mike Mamula | Pick 7
1994- Bernard Williams | Pick 14
1993- Lester Holmes | Pick 19
1993- Leonard Renfro | Pick 24

But when you take premium positions, you're taking them with the hope they can be with your team for a decade. It doesn't always turn out that way, but that's the hope. When you take a RB, you know going in with the pick that you probably won't want to pay him mega dollars on a second contract. It's really the only position where a team like the Eagles would not want to re-sign a guy because he played great.

And I honestly don't think you'd notice much of a drop off with a mid round RB than Robinson. For one, that comes with the assumption that Robinson completely meets expectations, which he may not, but I don't see the difference between one of the other RBs in the class and Robinson behind this offensive line being all that great.

Say for example Branch, Torrence, Njigba, Cam Smith, Antonio Johnson are there at 30. You'd seriously take Robinson over one of those guys? Knowing you could get a good RB later in a deep class? No way I could justify it. They're more important positions and the drop off from those guys to other rounds would be greater.

February 24, 20232 yr

8 minutes ago, RLC said:

Keep in mind that we haven't had a ton of first-round RBs in general, but...

2019: Jacobs
2018: Barkley (would have been great as a pick in the 20s, but obviously not worth #2 overall)
2017: CMC
2016: Zeke (was worth being a top 15 pick)
2015: Gurley (elite play for a short period)

I agree that taking RBs early is normally suboptimal, but you do get to a point that it's worth it.

I think Barkley and Zeke obviously weren't worth where they were picked, but let's take Barkley for a second, since when coming out people said it was the best RB prospect in years. And let's say the Giants picked in the 10-20 range of the first round that year. A lot of people would say "Barkley at #2 is crazy, but in the middle of the first round, he's worth it."

Guys who went in the middle area of the first round in 2018: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Vita Vea, Daron Payne, Derwin James, Jaire Alexander, Frank Ragnow. I would take every single one of those players over Barkley. That's my point and why I'm against it. By taking RB, you're forfeiting your opportunity to take someone at a premium position in the first round. I couldn't pass that up. Sure, you could end up drafting a bust, but the RB could end up being a bust too. I couldn't invest my most valuable picks in the least valuable position(excluding special teams).

So in a vacuum you may go "Barkley is worth taking as a mid first rounder" but when you realize what opportunities you're missing out on by using that pick on a guy like him, it no longer becomes worth it IMO.

February 24, 20232 yr

Taking a RB at 10 is bad, because you're passing up elite prospects at premium positions.
Taking a stud RB at 30 is more complicated. You're passing up a worst prospect at a premium position for a great prospect at a non-premium position. That's a more defensible move.

Note: That if the RB can also play in the slot (ex: Gibbs), it's easier to justify the price as he offers more value.

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February 24, 20232 yr

3 minutes ago, Sack that QB said:

I think Barkley and Zeke obviously weren't worth where they were picked, but let's take Barkley for a second, since when coming out people said it was the best RB prospect in years. And let's say the Giants picked in the 10-20 range of the first round that year. A lot of people would say "Barkley at #2 is crazy, but in the middle of the first round, he's worth it."

Guys who went in the middle area of the first round in 2018: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Vita Vea, Daron Payne, Derwin James, Jaire Alexander, Frank Ragnow. I would take every single one of those players over Barkley. That's my point and why I'm against it. By taking RB, you're forfeiting your opportunity to take someone at a premium position in the first round. I couldn't pass that up. Sure, you could end up drafting a bust, but the RB could end up being a bust too. I couldn't invest my most valuable picks in the least valuable position(excluding special teams).

So in a vacuum you may go "Barkley is worth taking as a mid first rounder" but when you realize what opportunities you're missing out on by using that pick on a guy like him, it no longer becomes worth it IMO.

I dunno, I hate Zeke but man, he was a different player as a rookie than he's been the rest of his career. In 15 games he had over 1,600 yards, 15 TDs and averaged 5 ypc. Also had 360 yards receiving at 11 ypc. He used to GASH the Eagles too. But, as the RB argument goes, picking him at 4 wasn't smart given the beating that RB take. He's had a few OK seasons since then but clearly has been on a decline ever since.

Zeke and Saquon are 1 and 1A when it comes to examples of why you don't take a RB in the top 10.

Hell, even Najee Harris at pick 28 is looking bad...and I'm a big Najee Harris fan. Through 2 years, he's almost at 600 carries and doesn't even average 4 ypc.

Everything you say makes sense but I also think the argument can still be made for pick 30...if he's special.

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February 24, 20232 yr

1 hour ago, Sack that QB said:

I can't wait for the kelly green alternates to go on sale. I assume at some point this offseason the Eagles are going to have an official unveiling. Any idea when that will be?

I would imagine before the draft, which is when they start selling a lot of their merch for the upcoming season. Unless they want to reverse uno everyone and try to dump as much of the current uniforms as possible. Speculation, but they still have almost no midnight green mens jerseys available- https://store.philadelphiaeagles.com/philadelphia-eagles-men-jerseys/t-25934893+ga-34+d-03555359+z-91-1543707585?_ref=p-DLP:m-SIDE_NAV I don't even think they are trying to restock anymore.

Washington did their rebrand early February.

Rams did theirs late march.

Cleveland did their "update" late February.

Those are the last few I remember coming up.

February 24, 20232 yr

1 hour ago, TorontoEagle said:

Yes I understand that. Proclaiming him a successful draft pick for the Eagles is wrong. Jordan Mailata, a similar 7th round selection, was a successful draft pick for the Eagles.

Poyer "wasted” a 7th round selection, didn’t contribute on the field, and gave us nothing upon his departure. That’s a failure.

You are inserting the words "for the Eagles”. Go back and read the article. The article is about the league as a whole not about the Eagles specifically. Poirier is a successful draft pick from an NFL perspective he made a roster he got renewed at a contract that was at a greater ratio than the threshold. There are 32 teams in the NFL not just one.

Regarding "wasted” picks, here’s a question for you. What is the difference between a seventh round player and a UDFA

February 24, 20232 yr

48 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Normally agree with solak but not on this. Not even a little bit

I mean the Eagles were rumored to have wanted to draft McCaffrey in 2017 and even thought about trading up for him. There's an argument to be made that McCaffrey at least warranted a 1st round pick when you look at his receiving yards. The problem is that when you look at his draft class there were arguably better backs taken after him. 4 backs have had more yards running the ball. Kamara, taken at 41, has been a better receiver and rusher. Now part of the issue may be the teams McCaffrey has played for in Carolina have had bad to middling offensive lines. There's also an argument the other way that some of his production is the result of him being a more viable weapon for bad QBs in the passing game. That's the problem with the pick as high as 10 for a RB. As much production the team might get out of a Bijan, I think a first round pick is a waste in a deep RB draft.

February 24, 20232 yr

1 minute ago, bpac55 said:

I dunno, I hate Zeke but man, he was a different player as a rookie than he's been the rest of his career. In 15 games he had over 1,600 yards, 15 TDs and averaged 5 ypc. Also had 360 yards receiving at 11 ypc. He used to GASH the Eagles too. But, as the RB argument goes, picking him at 4 wasn't smart given the beating that RB take. He's had a few OK seasons since then but clearly has been on a decline ever since.

Zeke and Saquon are 1 and 1A when it comes to examples of why you don't take a RB in the top 10.

Hell, even Najee Harris at pick 28 is looking bad...and I'm a big Najee Harris fan. Through 2 years, he's almost at 600 carries and doesn't even average 4 ypc.

Everything you say makes sense but I also think the argument can still be made for pick 30...if he's special.

Najee Harris was a bad pick because RB play is dependent on o-line play. The Steelers have a bad oline.

February 24, 20232 yr

7 minutes ago, mattwill said:

You are inserting the words "for the Eagles”. Go back and read the article. The article is about the league as a whole not about the Eagles specifically. Poirier is a successful draft pick from an NFL perspective he made a roster he got renewed at a contract that was at a greater ratio than the threshold. There are 32 teams in the NFL not just one.

Regarding "wasted” picks, here’s a question for you. What is the difference between a seventh round player and a UDFA

I think the answer to that is self evident.

February 24, 20232 yr

4 hours ago, TorontoEagle said:

You have to watch the new one about Harry and Megan. I think it’s better than this one

This scene was the Chef's Kiss for me. Anyone who watched it knows that it cut deeply for both Hazza and Megs

FpJbJbEXEAACZlH?format=jpg&name=large

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February 24, 20232 yr

13 minutes ago, wussbasket said:

I would imagine before the draft, which is when they start selling a lot of their merch for the upcoming season. Unless they want to reverse uno everyone and try to dump as much of the current uniforms as possible. Speculation, but they still have almost no midnight green mens jerseys available- https://store.philadelphiaeagles.com/philadelphia-eagles-men-jerseys/t-25934893+ga-34+d-03555359+z-91-1543707585?_ref=p-DLP:m-SIDE_NAV I don't even think they are trying to restock anymore.

Washington did their rebrand early February.

Rams did theirs late march.

Cleveland did their "update" late February.

Those are the last few I remember coming up.

Part of me wonders if the Silver Super Bowl jerseys were a pre-cursor to the uniform. Maybe they bring back the silver pants or maybe the jersey incorporates more silver sort of like the 70's jersey.

February 24, 20232 yr

46 minutes ago, paco said:

Speaking of Marcus Smith, I was randomly on his wiki page today. Apparently he is a published author

That child has teeth like a hippo.

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February 24, 20232 yr

Isn't the argument for not taking a RB in the 1st, is that you can find comparable value much later? You can spend a lesser value draft pick (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round) and get generally the same production as a 1st round RB.

Ezekiel Elliott was taken 4th overall in 2016. Yeah, he's been great but do you spend a 1st on a player you know in the best case scenario your going to get 6 maybe 7 years out of? Elliott was basically broken this past season and wasn't used nearly as much as in the past. If you look at the other backs taken much later, was it worth using a 1st on Elliott? Derrick Henry went in the 2nd, Kenyan Drake in the 3rd, Jordan Howard in the 5th.

Like @NCiggles mentioned with McCaffrey, and then also Fournette was also 4th overall. Later you had Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon in the 2nd, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner in the 3rd, Jamaal Williams and Marlon Mack in the 4th. Yeah there's some misses in between but generally its fairly easy

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