24 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Burrow gets MVP votes because the collection of talent on his team wins. If Burrow went 10-7 on the Chargers and Herbert wins the NFCN on the Bengals, guess who gets the MVP votes now? Even with the same stats

additionally, Passer rating is also the worst analytical stat in all 4 major sports. It attempts to remove all context to just say "big pass good, interception bad” and little else

Passer rating takes in how far a pass play goes, how often it gets completed, how often its a TD, and how often its a pick. 

Its a hell of a better system then someone's feelings that Herbert is great.

ANY/A also includes sacks. Burrow is 7.12 the last 2 years and Herbert is 6.58. Geno is 6.44

 

Burrow's PFF the last 2 years are 91.7 and 90.8

Herbert is 90.0 and 78.6

 

Football Outsiders DVOA and DYAR is Burrow >> Herbert

 

The only thing I could find them close was ESPNs pretend and secret QBR. You know, the Charlie Batch is a god statistic.

BTW, there is nothing wrong with Herbert and he could wind up with SB rings and a gold jacket.

It was a good idea to pay him with his physical abilities and production through 3 years.

The problem is with people pretending he is already great.

@LeanMeanGM @Aerolithe_Lion  I'm at 32.2 with 8 answers and I can't think of a Lion/Jet yet. Arrrgh!

10 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

BTW, there is nothing wrong with Herbert and he could wind up with SB rings and a gold jacket.

It was a good idea to pay him with his physical abilities and production through 3 years.

The problem is with people pretending he is already great.

Who pretended he is already great? I don’t even think Burrow is great

5 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

@LeanMeanGM @Aerolithe_Lion  I'm at 32.2 with 8 answers and I can't think of a Lion/Jet yet. Arrrgh!

There’s a couple big names from fairly recently

2 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

And then he got cut 

 

That takes some balls to tell that joke, no pun intended 

11 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

@LeanMeanGM @Aerolithe_Lion  I'm at 32.2 with 8 answers and I can't think of a Lion/Jet yet. Arrrgh!

I'm mad at then for costing me a guess for Joe Flacco as a Jets and Eagles player.  Turned to Mickey Shuler as the backup option.  0.2% for that one.

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

That takes some balls to tell that joke, no pun intended 

Doug seems like a good sport about stuff. I not sure doing it with someone like saban would go well. sucks he wasn’t here to do it when Gannon was here.  

25 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

@LeanMeanGM @Aerolithe_Lion  I'm at 32.2 with 8 answers and I can't think of a Lion/Jet yet. Arrrgh!

I used Old Faithful for that one

55 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Passer rating takes in how far a pass play goes, how often it gets completed, how often its a TD, and how often its a pick. 

Its a hell of a better system then someone's feelings that Herbert is great.

ANY/A also includes sacks. Burrow is 7.12 the last 2 years and Herbert is 6.58. Geno is 6.44

 

Burrow's PFF the last 2 years are 91.7 and 90.8

Herbert is 90.0 and 78.6

 

Football Outsiders DVOA and DYAR is Burrow >> Herbert

 

The only thing I could find them close was ESPNs pretend and secret QBR. You know, the Charlie Batch is a god statistic.

All of the other QB analytic stats do the things passer rating does and then some. But Passer Rating ignores running ability which is profoundly valuable in today’s nfl, down-and-distance, game situation, and level of competition. ESPN’s "pretend secret” stat attributes for all of this.

There are sites that have worked out which of these varying stats actually correlates to helping your team win the most:

I like EPA, PFF, and ESPN TOTAL QBR as my preferred metrics due to how each is calibrated, as well as how they retrospectively reflect the way the season went in the eye of the viewer. If you look through the previous few seasons’ QBR grades as well as the all time rankings, they were very close to how I would rank them myself. Passer Rating is always wonky with at least a quarter of the top QB’s feeling way out of place due to lost context I implied early. As more QBs are mobile now and into the future, I believe both PFF and Total QBR will pull away on this chart from Passer Rating which ignores such offensive benefits. Notice how overal EPA greatly outperforms just passing EPA. ANY/A is also a very good stat, but it easily abused by scheme as shown by Jimmy Garoppolo being the third greatest ANY/A QB in the history of organized football:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm
 

Both peaked around 90-91 in PFF in their short careers thus far, but Burrow was better last year in that stat.

Herbert had his worst year as a pro in ESPN Total QBR at 58, while Burrow had his career best at… 58.

This was their EPA through their first two seasons (Burrow less snaps due to rookie injury)

 

Again as with PFF and QBR, Herbert’s EPA began to dip below Burrow’s in 2022. But this time, we have evidence of uncontrollable events that led to that:

"Justin Herbert EPA/play with Mike and Keenan on the field in 2022: 0.306 EPA/play with one or both off the field: -0.021.”

Keenan Allen missing half the season has a large effect on Herbert’s more involved statlines. Circumstances around the team have a tremendous impact on the performance of the players. Like I said before, swap teams, give Herbert Jamar Chase and Cincy’s defense for a few seasons and no one will be shocked if the script flips. I have not seen enough separation from either QB to say Burrow is in a different QB tier than Herbert, other than the playoff wins which is why I currently have him higher on my QB list. But even in those playoffs, Burrow does not play as well as he does in the regular season, which again implies the team he plays on is having a large impact on his success. 
 

And this leads again back to the point of my post you quoted: Justin Herbert absolutely can slot himself into the #2 QB spot on power rankings in the minds of the masses if his team has a  noticeably better season than Burrow’s; they are close enough for that factor to sway it.

4 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I used Old Faithful for that one

Drew Stanton..

Herbert is pretty damn good. I'm of the opinion that he's being held back due to playcalling, weapons, Oline

It'll be sad if Chargers fail him. Though playing in the same division as the alien doesn't help

44 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

I used Old Faithful for that one

Two that immediately came to mind were Nick mangold, he played many years for both teams, and Snacks Harrison. Snacks is a good link to remember for Jets-Lions-Giants-Seahawks

 

EDIT: Not Mangold, Damien Woody! F can’t believe I mixed those two up. Easy to remember NE-Det connection for him too

5 minutes ago, Mike030270 said:

Herbert is pretty damn good. I'm of the opinion that he's being held back due to playcalling, weapons, Oline

It'll be sad if Chargers fail him. Though playing in the same division as the alien doesn't help

He has 2 thousand yard WRs ( they got hurt last year but still)  and Eckler. He isn't lacking weapons. Also has some good lineman but also had injuries there too. 

 

55 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

He wants to play for Philly so bad 

He relates to the young players really well. Probably also doing those interviews super stoned 

8 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

Davante Adams chose LV over GB to finish his career at home, he turned down Aaron Rodgers to go to a bad football team. When they dumped Derek Carr, he didn’t care because he wanted to play for the Raiders. This "insider info” is blindly throwing darts and hoping they hit

52 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Drew Stanton..

Close

34 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Two that immediately came to mind were Nick mangold, he played many years for both teams, and Snacks Harrison. Snacks is a good link to remember for Jets-Lions-Giants-Seahawks

 

EDIT: Not Mangold, Damien Woody! F can’t believe I mixed those two up. Easy to remember NE-Det connection for him too

Mine was a backup QB who recently was on the Eagles 

2 hours ago, SkippyX said:

So you want to say Herbert is 2nd best because of pity?

Williams, Ekeler, and Allen are awesome weapons. Those 3 guys have 77 TDs the last 3 years and you want pity? 

Herbert has not had great O-lines but Burrow's line has been hot garbage until they got to passable around halfway through last year.

 

The rating difference the last 2 years is 104.2 to 95.4. That 95.4 compares much closer to 2022 Andy Dalton (95.2), so maybe you have the wrong Bengals QB?

He could have a 104 rating this year and be on his way. So can Geno Smith(101.2 rating the last 2 seasons). It does make either of them elite yet.

 

Herbert 2nd best?  No, not at all.  I have Hurts and 2 and Burrow at 3.  But it's within the realm of possibility that Herbert become the best QB in the league at some point. There's a world where that happens.

18 minutes ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

 

 

I could absolutely see this.  Rodgers never showed any sort of hard feelings publicly towards Adams pushing for that trade and the things Adams has said afterwards.  That left the door open and now with Adams no longer playing with Carr and now that dumpster fire the Raiders have quickly become with Josh McDaniels (predictably) I think Adams is all on board trying to get back to playing on a contending team to win a championship while also playing opposite a receiver as good as Garrett Wilson with Rodgers playing QB.  

Jacoby Brissette(4-7), Marcus Mariota(5-8), and Derek Carr(6-9) were the 8th, 13th and 14th best QBs according to worthless QBR.

All 3 had a losing record and all 3 were benched, but QBR knows better!

Brisette had 16 total TDs and 10 total turnovers.

He ran for 22.5 yards a game in his starts which was no better than 10th for a QB. He only ran for 2 TDs.

He lost a shootout to Flacco when his RBs ran for 146 and 3 TDs. He lost to Mariota when his RBs ran for 157 and a score.

A better QB wins 6 or 7 of those 11 starts. QBR said he was the 8th best QB (a lie) and passer rating had him at a troubling 20th in passing efficiency. (which being about 10th in running won't help much)

 

QBR involves judging. Its not a real stat.

Its not a bad thing to try to include rushing and pressure and fumbles and sacks and air yards traveled. Its just that ESPN does a bad job of randomly coming up with skewed results.

Stats like EPA per play might be very good. Do you know the formulas or do they pretend as well?

ESPN also calculates their stats AFTER they know who won... Most other stats are the same regardless of the outcome.

 

Well Bob, he had a 3.6 out of 10 pressure on that throw. Oh, they won, I mean he had a 4.9 pressure on that throw. 🤡

 

Passer rating does not claim to be a who wins stat. Its just a passing efficiency stat but its not pretend.

 

1 hour ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Didn’t they have to draft some shoemaker to replace Dalton Schultz?

10 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

Jacoby Brissette(4-7), Marcus Mariota(5-8), and Derek Carr(6-9) were the 8th, 13th and 14th best QBs according to worthless QBR.

All 3 had a losing record and all 3 were benched, but QBR knows better!

Brisette had 16 total TDs and 10 total turnovers.

He ran for 22.5 yards a game in his starts which was no better than 10th for a QB. He only ran for 2 TDs.

He lost a shootout to Flacco when his RBs ran for 146 and 3 TDs. He lost to Mariota when his RBs ran for 157 and a score.

A better QB wins 6 or 7 of those 11 starts. QBR said he was the 8th best QB (a lie) and passer rating had him at a troubling 20th in passing efficiency. (which being about 10th in running won't help much)

 

QBR involves judging. Its not a real stat.

Its not a bad thing to try to include rushing and pressure and fumbles and sacks and air yards traveled. Its just that ESPN does a bad job of randomly coming up with skewed results.

Stats like EPA per play might be very good. Do you know the formulas or do they pretend as well?

ESPN also calculates their stats AFTER they know who won... Most other stats are the same regardless of the outcome.

 

Well Bob, he had a 3.6 out of 10 pressure on that throw. Oh, they won, I mean he had a 4.9 pressure on that throw. 🤡

 

Passer rating does not claim to be a who wins stat. Its just a passing efficiency stat but its not pretend.

 

 

 

The real surprise over the past two years is how the Eagles haven't been able to land Jacoby Brissette as backup QB.  He keeps chasing the dragon of the chance to start somewhere.  And probably also money but I don't think he made that much more than Mariota but he is far better than Mariota.