18 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

First quarter is going to be really interesting for the Eagles.  First preseason they didn't play the starters on both offense and defense in any of the games.  Both units under new coordinators too.  BB has been scheming all offseason to on how to try and make things difficult for Hurts.  I think there is high potential we turn the ball over early and our defense gives up an early touchdown.  Could find ourselves down two scores heading into and during the 2nd quarter.  If the Eagles are who we think they are then they should be able to bounce back and win the game by double digits by the end of regulation.  

Nah, we’re going to run the cheaters out of the building. 

7 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

some WOs and RBs I like 

Devin Neal RB

J Cephus WO

W Sheppard WO

R Sanders RB

O Gadsden WO

X Legette WO

J Wilson WO

B Allen RB

 

From FSU?

I like Allen a lot. Wilson is more intriguing than high conviction to me. Obviously he has impressive size, but I wonder if he’s almost too big?

1 hour ago, McMVP said:

We held a lot of decent leads at halftime.  I think Hurts threw for almost 2,500 yards in just the first half of games last year - so I see the point here.

I think he only threw for 469 (forget exact number but somewhere below 500) in all 4th quarters combined last season so it checks out 

3 hours ago, e-a-g-l-e-s eagles! said:

Yep. That’s the case i made a couple weeks ago that outside of the top six teams that we all expect to be Super Bowl contenders if I was taking a shot on a team that was +1500 or more it would be the jags. Their division isn’t very good. They are playing the NFC south. I would be shocked if Trevor Lawrence didn’t take another step in his development with doug. They’ve also given him more talent on offense. Would not be shocked if they are the one or two seed in the AFC.

Amazing stat I heard today:

As the division winner, Jacksonville has to play Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and San Francisco(17th extra game).

Every single one is a Jags home game, because KC/SF/CIN are in Jacksonville and Bills are the "home” team in the London matchup. Except Jaguars have another London game the week before, so they’ll have no jet lag

47 minutes ago, UK Eagle said:

Some clarification on the Forty Whiner rule

 

This was the worst discourse of the offseason. It was so tiring. If they had lost by one possession, like the Eagles did against Seattle when Wentz got KO’d and McCown tore his hamstring, they’d have a point. They got blown out by 24 points and even if they had an extra QB on the roster who was working at a car dealership the week before it wouldn’t have mattered. The b*tching and moaning from that team and it’s fan base was exhausting. 

31 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

"Stat nerds”.  If that is directed at @FranklinFldEBUpper, that’s absurd.  He literally times the kicks himself.  That’s watching and he is observing the opponents punter too.  His recall of plays in Eagles games is phenomenal.   Try timing speed of snap to kick or hang time.  Ain’t easy.  

What available punter, obviously relying on your watching all of that punter’s kicks are you proposing as a replacement. Even Kempski has struggled there, basically pointing out that the available punters are worse or no better than Sisposs, who at least is a trusted holder for Elliott.  Heck, they had the punter I wanted to pick up as an UDFA when they lost Johnston in for two tryouts last year and ended up signing Kern.  So conditioned on you having watched the player’s punting, not just highlights, who are you proposing? 

Gilliken. From Penn State. Stronger leg, which is a must here in an upgrade. Has more growth potential and younger.  Nice rookie year and so so 2nd year. 

I literally questioned the expert about Gilliken's game last year vs the Eagles. And he stated it was a bad game. Without even using his eyes in his analysis. That was Gilliken's best game of the year as he coffin cornered the Eagles the whole game. I can't remember one game where Siposs did that consistently. And I can't remember a game where he flipped the field with a rocket launch 81 yard punt. Gilliken has shown propensity to do all of that in his arsenal. 

And you five guys or so in here conveniently keep disregarding his abysmal playoff performances. He's the James Harden of punters. Choker!! That shows you a lot about a player. Can he step up in the limelight? And he has not. Then we go to this preseason where his job was on the line and the beat reporters finally threw their hands up in the air and say he sucks!! He could barely hold off Zentner.  Who happens to be on a roster in Texas and Siposs is not. How ironic?! 😆

He only holds a spot on PS right now as a matter of convenience for Howie to have a punter there. And holding Elliott's balls oh so flirtatiously.

1 minute ago, BDawk_ASamuel said:

This was the worst discourse of the offseason. It was so tiring. If they had lost by one possession, like the Eagles did against Seattle when Wentz got KO’d and McCown tore his hamstring, they’d have a point. They got blown out by 24 points and even if they had an extra QB on the roster who was working at a car dealership the week before it wouldn’t have mattered. The b*tching and moaning from that team and it’s fan base was exhausting. 

Agree. I saw one comment that nothing changed, basically.  They fell into the Nagy mindset didn't they?

5 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

Gilliken. From Penn State. Stronger leg, which is a must here in an upgrade. Has more growth potential and younger.  Nice rookie year and so so 2nd year. 

I literally questioned the expert about Gilliken's game last year vs the Eagles. And he stated it was a bad game. Without even using his eyes in his analysis. That was Gilliken"s best game of the year as he coffin cornered them the whole game. I can't remember on game where Siposs did that consistently. And I can't remember a game where he flipped the field with a rocket launch 81 yard punt. Gilliken has shown propensity to do all of that in his arsenal. 

And you guys conveniently keep disregarding his abysmal playoff performances. He's the James Harden of punters. Choker!! That shows you a lot about a player. Can he step up in the limelight? And he has not. Them we go to the preseason. He could barely hold off Zentner.  Who happens to be on a roster and Siposs is not. How ironic?! 😆

 

Yet the Saints felt the need to replace him with a 30 year old rookie…

1 minute ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Yet the Saints felt the need to replace him with a 30 year old rookie…

And Elliott was replaced in Cincinatti. Okay? Hedley punted well in a close competiton. The guy is better than Siposs. Not even close as far as talent goes! But it just may not be the right time yet to give him the ax with Howies plan.

4 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

And Elliott was replaced in Cincinatti. Okay? Hedley punted well in a close competiton. The guy is better than Siposs. Not even close as far as talent goes! But it just may not be the right time yet to give him the ax with Howies plan.

Elliott was never replaced in Cincinnati. 

Just now, LeanMeanGM said:

Elliott was never replaced in Cincinnati. 

Well he was waived. All because someone is waived that doesn't mean they aren't talented. Gilliken is pretty talented. But you haven't really studied him much to know I am sure.

1 hour ago, jojodancer said:

Toth and Clark are stiffs. Mccollum is meh. Howie can juggle this PS a bunch going forward.

Just curious, how much of the All22 PS games did you watch this preseason concentrating on McCollum?  (I watched the first two.) Actually thought he did okay dropping to the high S position.  How many practices did you watch the one on ones, 7 x 7s or 11 x 11s and concentrate on McCollum?  Me neither. How many SHSU games did you watch?  I watched several specifically watching the McCollums (friends from Galveston suggested I do so.) Was he playing Rover, CB or S for the games you watched? He played all 3.  Hell Kempski took a couple of weeks into camp to figure out he was a S and not a CB, whereas I have been saying that since they signed him to a futures contract. There is a lot to like for McCollum as a PS player.  Diversity.  Decent hips. Good height 6’ 1” at pro day but Eagles list at 6’ 3” (out of HS he was 6’ 2”) and speed (4.48 40, 4.02,SS and 6.72 3 cone). Eagles list at 194, he was 198 at Pro Day (and 195 out of HS).  His twin brother ran a 4.33 and is 6’ 2” and 199 and plays CB for Tampa.   McCollum has position diversity (a value on practice squads) and is developmental, a value on the PS.  Is he "meh” because he wasn’t in the starting S rotation competition in TC?  The Eagles have a lot better idea of his potential than any of us do.  (I think maybe a JAG but maybe can be developed, too early to,say for me.)

I agree the PS will be churned a lot over the season.  The bottom of the roster too.  None of those players should get comfortable. Some may even be poached. 

4 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Just curious, how much of the All22 PS games did you watch this preseason concentrating on McCollum?  (I watched the first two.) Actually thought he did okay dropping to the high S position.  How many practices did you watch the one on ones, 7 x 7s or 11 x 11s and concentrate on McCollum?  Me neither. How many SHSU games did you watch?  I watched several specifically watching the McCollums (friends from Galveston suggested I do so.) Was he playing Rover, CB or S for the games you watched? He played all 3.  Hell Kempski took a couple of weeks into camp to figure out he was a S and not a CB, whereas I have been saying that since they signed him to a futures contract. There is a lot to like for McCollum as a PS player.  Diversity.  Decent hips. Good height 6’ 1” at pro day but Eagles list at 6’ 3” (out of HS he was 6’ 2”) and speed (4.48 40, 4.02,SS and 6.72 3 cone). Eagles list at 194, he was 198 at Pro Day (and 195 out of HS).  His twin brother ran a 4.33 and is 6’ 2” and 199 and plays CB for Tampa.   McCollum has position diversity (a value on practice squads) and is developmental, a value on the PS.  Is he "meh” because he wasn’t in the starting S rotation competition in TC?  The Eagles have a lot better idea of his potential than any of us do.  (I think maybe a JAG but maybe can be developed, too early to,say for me.)

I agree the PS will be churned a lot over the season.  The bottom of the roster too.  None of those players should get comfortable. Some may even be poached. 

You just spent 35 lines or so on Mccollum. Come on bro! Only to repeat my own point that I made about the practice squad and that it will be flipped over all year.

9 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

Well he was waived. All because someone is waived that doesn't mean they aren't talented. Gilliken is pretty talented. But you haven't really studied him much to know I am sure.

Big difference between being waived and being replaced. Elliott was brought in to push the current starter Bullock. He didn’t do enough so he was waived his rookie year but did show enough for the team to like his potential to carry a second kicker on the PS. Something Howie picked up on which wasn’t even very subtle to anyone. 

Gilliken was actively replaced. By a 30 year old rookie. Gilliken is also still unemployed a week later and was never offered a job or a PS spot. In fact I could be wrong but it seems like the Eagles are the only team to even show any interest in him at all since being available.

I don’t care about Siposs at all, but to act like Gilliken is some sure fire stud who is an instant upgrade despite NFL teams clearly saying otherwise is laughable.

But I bet you really have studied him much to know, I’m sure. 

@mattwill put me down for 14-3.

On 9/3/2023 at 1:07 PM, mattwill said:

Predictions update

 

5 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

 

@mattwill for the 3rd time, my record guess is 12-5

 

32 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

Amazing stat I heard today:

As the division winner, Jacksonville has to play Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, and San Francisco(17th extra game).

Every single one is a Jags home game, because KC/SF/CIN are in Jacksonville and Bills are the "home” team in the London matchup. Except Jaguars have another London game the week before, so they’ll have no jet lag

Makes me feel even more on them. All of them at home and basically a neutral site game makes me think there’s a good chance they can win at least two of those four and the rest of the schedule is not very daunting. Plus got to remember Lawrence was so bad his rookie year because he had to deal with urban Meyer. So basically took half the season to get on track his second year. So he’s just starting to reach what we thought he could be when he came out. I’m guessing he’s gonna be better with doug from the start of the year to the end of the year.

 

6 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Big difference between being waived and being replaced. Elliott was brought in to push the current starter Bullock. He didn’t do enough so he was waived his rookie year but did show enough for the team to like his potential to carry a second kicker on the PS. Something Howie picked up on which wasn’t even very subtle to anyone. 

Gilliken was actively replaced. By a 30 year old rookie. Gilliken is also still unemployed a week later and was never offered a job or a PS spot. In fact I could be wrong but it seems like the Eagles are the only team to even show any interest in him at all since being available.

I don’t care about Siposs at all, but to act like Gilliken is some sure fire stud who is an instant upgrade despite NFL teams clearly saying otherwise is laughable.

But I bet you really have studied him much to know, I’m sure. 

Lol. It hasn't even been a week. Everyone has a punter in hand already and won't be switching till there's an injury. Braden Mann is also better than Siposs. But the timing just doesn't seem right. But I keep saying that he's on probation for 3 weeks and have said so for quite awhile by Howie's design. Will see if he chokes soon enough.

Predictions Update

I am afraid I missed someone with a screen name that begins with either the letter M or the Letter N.  If I missed you please repost, and be sure to tag the post with @mattwill

 

 

29 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

Lol. It hasn't even been a week. Everyone has a punter in hand already and won't be switching till there's an injury. Braden Mann is also better than Siposs. But the timing just doesn't seem right. But I keep saying that he's on probation for 3 weeks and have said so for quite awhile by Howie's design. Will see if he chokes soon enough.

My bad. 6 days. Game changer. 

After adjusting Patrick Mahomes' stats, removing outliers to project the future, he heavily regresses to around the level of 2018 Dak.

In the last two seasons, Mahomes has a TD% of 8.68%. However, the league average last year was 4.8%. If you adjust his TD% to 5%, still above league average, he goes from throwing 57 TDs in his last 18 games to only 32.85. I'll be generous and give him 33. 

Now, let's adjust his passer rating. It goes from 116.5 to only 104.3 by just adjusting his TD% to normally above average. Later on, I will adjust it further to take yards into account.

Next, we have to account for him passing more than league average. He has 657 pass attempts over 18 games. The LA is 35.5/game, which equals 639, around a 2.7% reduction. Mahomes also has a flukey 9.01 Y/A, which can be adjusted to 8 (still above LA) based on the league average of 7.5.

So we can estimate that over a 16 game season, his adjusted yardage is (639*7.5)/18*16= 4544 yards.

Now, I will adjust his passer rating again based on these 16 game stats

* 4544 yards

* 639 attempts

* 426 completions (also adjusted)

**After this, his passer rating bottoms out at 96.66**, which lands him squarely between Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger last year.

His final 16 game adjusted stats:

* **4544 yards / 639 ATT / 426 CMP / 66.7% CMP (same) / 33 TD / 12 INT (same) / 8 Y/A / 96.7 RATE**

#What does this tell us?

It tells us that Mahomes' perceived success in the league is largely inflated by unsustainable, wildly outlier stats in his 18 games as perceived elite talent. When you adjust for the future by bringing down his outlier stats, he regresses heavily to a slightly above average QB of 2018 Dak tierdom.

9 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Predictions Update

I am afraid I missed someone with a screen name that begins with either the letter M or the Letter N.  If I missed you please repost, and be sure to tag the post with @mattwill

 

@mattwill 11-6

25 minutes ago, jojodancer said:

Gilliken. From Penn State. Stronger leg, which is a must here in an upgrade. Has more growth potential and younger.  Nice rookie year and so so 2nd year. 

I literally questioned the expert about Gilliken's game last year vs the Eagles. And he stated it was a bad game. Without even using his eyes in his analysis. That was Gilliken's best game of the year as he coffin cornered the Eagles the whole game. I can't remember one game where Siposs did that consistently. And I can't remember a game where he flipped the field with a rocket launch 81 yard punt. Gilliken has shown propensity to do all of that in his arsenal. 

And you five guys or so in here conveniently keep disregarding his abysmal playoff performances. He's the James Harden of punters. Choker!! That shows you a lot about a player. Can he step up in the limelight? And he has not. Then we go to this preseason where his job was on the line and the beat reporters finally threw their hands up in the air and say he sucks!! He could barely hold off Zentner.  Who happens to be on a roster in Texas and Siposs is not. How ironic?! 😆

He only holds a spot on PS right now as a matter of convenience for Howie to have a punter there. And holding Elliott's balls oh so flirtatiously.

Who ignores his awful performance in Tampa? Not I.  I have said it over and over.  I give him a bit of the benefit of the doubt against KC because I don’t think he was healthy but his kick was a line drive and the coverage on that return was pathetic.  (He also got some of the blame for the loss from me too.)  I question the STs coaching of both blocking and coverage. Lane discipline is horrid.  If you have the All22, put on the Ravens preseason game and compare STs blocking and coverage between the two teams.  Ravens were much better at both with the same amount of practices.  For a coach that preaches the fundamentals, Nick puts up with a breakdown of those on STs way too much to my liking.

Gillikin is good when he is on but more inconsistent than Sisposs.  Was at PSU (watched every game he played) and with the Saints. Watched a lot of condensed Saint games last year. Here is what @FranklinFldEBUpper wrote about his performance in the Eagles game last year: "Blake Gillikin punted six times for the Saints. He averaged about 43.0 yards and 4.14 hangtime. Only one (barely) reached 4.5 seconds. All six were hit outside the numbers. Definite "win" for the Saints on this one, putting the Eagles mark on the season at 2-13-1.”  (The "win” tally doesn’t sound like a rousing endorsement by him of Sisposs,and Kern.) But 4.14 average hang time with a 43 yard average was Gillikin’s best game of the year”.  

Frankly, of the three the Eagles worked out, I suspect Gillikin is on speed dial as the first back up plan to losing Sisposs but he is just another mediocre punter with consistency issues.  Not clearly an upgrade.  I guess whoever the "five guys” are probably agree that we want better, not just different.  You seem to be willing to accept mediocrity as long as it is different mediocrity. I’m not.  I think the old adage better the evil you know than the evil you don’t know.  As to holds, I suspect that is significant part of what they look at as well as how they play safety on punt coverage. 

6 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

My bad. 6 days. Game changer. 

I think he should retire now because it's been a week and he doesn't have a job when every single battle has been decided. He's trash!

1 hour ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Yet the Saints felt the need to replace him with a 30 year old rookie…

Hey hey hey. Maybe the saints coaches were afraid to cut him.