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EMB Blog: 2024 Regular Season (Part 2) ... and Playoffs

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8 hours ago, mattwill said:

That was CJGJ’s motto last week.  He is singing a different tune this week.  Plus Cooper is the quintessential team player.

JMO

Apples and oranges.

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8 hours ago, mattwill said:

Right now, assuming a Vikings loss tomorrow and win next week, the SOV calculations have the Lions at 104 wins and 112 losses, the Vikings at 90 wins and 125 losses, and the Eagles at 93 wins and 121 losses.  So SOV with the Vikings is looking much better for the Eagles than it was at the beginning of Week 16.  However, if the Vikings and Lions end up tied (Vikings lose to Packers and beat the Lions) then the first tie breaker is between the Lions and Vikings, and that favors the Lions.  Bottom-line, if the lions beat the 49ers tomorrow, then the Eagles' chances of the #1 seed drop to zero.

Anyone have any other thoughts?

There is one other scenario:

Lions still have to lose to 9ers, Vikings have to lose to Packers….

And then week 18 Lions and Vikings tie. Final results:

Lions: 13-3-1

Vikings: 13-3-1

Packers: 13-4

Eagles: 14-3

 

While unlikely, it takes any week 18 SOV rooting out of it

9 hours ago, mattwill said:

Right now, assuming a Vikings loss tomorrow and win next week, the SOV calculations have the Lions at 104 wins and 112 losses, the Vikings at 90 wins and 125 losses, and the Eagles at 93 wins and 121 losses.  So SOV with the Vikings is looking much better for the Eagles than it was at the beginning of Week 16.  However, if the Vikings and Lions end up tied (Vikings lose to Packers and beat the Lions) then the first tie breaker is between the Lions and Vikings, and that favors the Lions.  Bottom-line, if the lions beat the 49ers tomorrow, then the Eagles' chances of the #1 seed drop to zero.

Anyone have any other thoughts?

My thoughts are there is no reason to even think about it. My expectation is number 2 seed and not giving it any other thoughts at this point

13 minutes ago, DeathByEagle said:

My thoughts are there is no reason to even think about it. My expectation is number 2 seed and not giving it any other thoughts at this point

Yup. The 1 seed realistically died last week for us. 

Even as the 2 seed we could end up with a home NFC title game. Stranger things have happened.

Maddox is washed, Gainwell is who he is which means he produces at a relatively mediocre level but he does produce

23 minutes ago, goeagles5039 said:

Even as the 2 seed we could end up with a home NFC title game. Stranger things have happened.

No doubt about it… I would think the odds that the Eagles play a home NFC championship game as the number two seed are more favorable than they are for the Eagles going into the playoffs as the number one seed.  

I have faith the defense can shut down the now Lamb-less Cowboys offense, but I have zero faith in Kenny Pickett.

Feels like a 20-17 type of game

1 hour ago, DrPhilly said:

Maddox is washed, Gainwell is who he is which means he produces at a relatively mediocre level but he does produce

He’s a #2/3rd down RB. If he has 40-50 total yards and a couple first downs, that’s a good game. 

Just now, EaglePhan1986 said:

He’s a #2/3rd down RB. If he has 40-50 total yards and a couple first downs, that’s a good game. 

Yes, and with no real upside.  He checks a box and at this point that's what we need.

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Apples and oranges.

Why?

2 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

My thoughts are there is no reason to even think about it. My expectation is number 2 seed and not giving it any other thoughts at this point

From a player perspective and a coaches perspective, I completely agree with you.  Fans aren’t constrained though, so their considerations are limitless, but don’t tel RTK that.

2 hours ago, EagleJoe8 said:

Yup. The 1 seed realistically died last week for us. 

Key word "realistically”

That is the logical conclusion, but not the mathematical conclusion.

53 minutes ago, Swoop said:

I have faith the defense can shut down the now Lamb-less Cowboys offense, but I have zero faith in Kenny Pickett.

Feels like a 20-17 type of game

The best thing that could happen for the fan base is a decisive win with a good Pickett performance … and a McKee led drive in the 4th Quarter.

If I were still taking score predictions, that would be my bonus prediction.

7 minutes ago, mattwill said:

Key word "realistically”

That is the logical conclusion, but not the mathematical conclusion.

Right. That's why I specifically used that word.

Playing safe with Nakobe. Smart.

1 hour ago, Swoop said:

I have faith the defense can shut down the now Lamb-less Cowboys offense, but I have zero faith in Kenny Pickett.

Feels like a 20-17 type of game

It should be a struggle for us to reach 17 today. 

Put Nick Gates on the PS. There’s no point in him being on the team. 

2 minutes ago, LeanMeanGM said:

Put Nick Gates on the PS. There’s no point in him being on the team. 

Unlimited practice squad elevations in the playoffs. 

I think we come out throwing on 1st downs and also lots of plays under center

4 hours ago, rrfierce said:

You’re being extremely kind to Maddox , he’s a complete liability with coverage and penalties 

 

4 hours ago, Dwide Schrude said:

Going to completely disagree about Maddox, especially comparing him to Gainwell. Gainwell has had positive contributions this season, he’s an ideal RB2 that has made drive extending plays. It seems that things go poorly for the defense as soon as Maddox is on the field, especially given that QB immediately target him. I am a fan of Maddox, his peak was fun, but can’t deny any longer that injuries caught up and he’s washed. 

Please take into account what I already said in the post you replied to. I want to add this simply for comparison purposes:

Maddox: 

250 snaps

23 targets

11 completions

109 yards

1TD

76.2 passer rating when targeted

15 tackles, 1 missed --- 6.3% missed tackle percentage

5 passes defensed

1 "Stop"

4 penalties

 

DeJean:

588 snaps

66 targets

44 completions

367 yards

0 TDs

80.8 passer rating when targeted

45 tackles, 7 missed  --- 13.5% missed tackle percentage

6 passes defensed 

1 FF and 2 FR 

0.5 sacks

19 "Stops"

3 penalties

 

In conclusion, I feel DeJean is the better player with upside to become great. However, the current drop-off to Maddox isn't what people are making it out to be. 5 passes defended in just 250 snaps is pretty darn solid as is the 76.2 passer rating he has allowed when targeted. The 4 penalties is higher than you'd like but a couple of those were suspect calls IMO. His missed tackle I believe happened in that slop-fest in tampa. DeJean demonstrates flashes of greatness in many of the games and is more likely to come up with a big play than Maddox. So clearly we don't want deJean to get hurt, but if that happens, Maddox is about the best backup nickel on an NFL roster right now. I just don't understand why people focus-hate (by this I mean simply harp on a couple bad plays and exaggerate the negative)  players that are providing depth. Maddox isn't worth what he was set to be paid before he was released, but he is worth his current pay as a versatile reserve DB with ST value. 

The goal today is the quickest possible game, 3-4 to long drives for touchdowns, and everyone heads home by 3:30.

Yup… flew in from Aptos last night to get away from Tsunami alerts, tornadoes, and giant destructive waves. Looks like I brought some normal CA weather with me!  A lot of Kelly Greens in the stadium with everyone showing off their new Xmas presents. Go birds!

It's in the 50's today. Mann should be able to get all kickoffs into the endzone. Limit any possible damage by Turpin.

1 hour ago, Swoop said:

I have faith the defense can shut down the now Lamb-less Cowboys offense, but I have zero faith in Kenny Pickett.

Feels like a 20-17 type of game

I’m more worried about Nick doing dumb **** like passing up FG’s and going for it on 4th + 4 … or 4th +1 from our 35. 

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