2023: Continued dead cap hell (Currently $54 Million)

[pallidrone]

1 hour ago, paco said:

In a vacuum, you are correct.  The problem some of us has is that Howie does not do this in moderation.  If you do this too much, your cap becomes rigid and the end result is you are precluded from making moves you may want to make.

 

If you care, this was my take when they extended cox

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I agree with what you are saying here and I understand the perception of having all this bad debt. I also agree that Howie is fixing mistakes that were made in the past, especially when they thought the best course of action when they won the Super Bowl was to 'keep the band together' which rarely ever works.

However where I think the path diverges here is that back during the Vinny Cerrato time a lot of teams had no control over their cap and free agency was filled with top notch players looking for new opportunities. They got in trouble from signing the Adam Archuleta and Albert Haynesworth of the world to monster back loaded contracts that crippled their cap. 

Teams now identify players that work within their scheme and use their cap space to hold onto those players. People argue that the cap goes up for other teams just like it does for the Eagles so the percentage of cap to debt ratio stays the same for all teams, which is true, but that cap space is not being used for free agents, it is being used to sign existing players, which the Eagles are not competing with other teams for. That is the difference.

When a team can't sign a player instead of allowing them to hit the market for nothing (or hope for a compensatory pick), teams are trading these assets away to the highest bidder. There are very few game changing FAs that hit the open market anymore. Even looking at the upcoming free agency list - who is that top of the line player that every team will be bidding for? Davante Adams - a player that is all world but about to turn 30 and will probably not even see free agency regardless of what happens with Rodgers - and that's it? Maybe you could argue for Marcus Williams as he is a top ten player at his position and he is 25.

Mike gave a list and most of those players on there are either over the age of 30 and on the start of the decline of their career, damaged goods (Chris Godwin, Marcus Mayes) or mediocre players that their teams did not want to resign. The hope with free agency now is that you can sign a player to a good deal and he plays very well for you so you can extend him (Javon Hargraves is a prime example of this) or if he stinks it doesn't affect your cap to much. This is why so many players sign 1 year deals. 

This is why I also am not concerned with the cap or dead space. If there is a player or two out there that they want, they can still get those players. If they want to extend their own players, they can do that. The worst thing to happen with they way they put their contracts together, actually happened and it did not force them to gut the team and cut a lot of good players. The only thing that they can't do is blow their wad on a crap load of free agents, which even if they had a crap load of space, is not something I want them to do anyway.

[Thing3]

Howie and Lurie knew they were digging themselves in a hole when they tried to make runs at another championship in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Indications are DP wanted to kick the can down the road again this year to make another run and that is at least part of the reason he was let go. It seems Siri was on board and that's one of the reasons he's here. Lurie and Howie knew we needed to start digging out of this hole. Point is, all of this can kicking by Howie comes to no surprise to Lurie. They were all in on it so Howie is not going to get the blame.

Maybe now people can understand why we can't afford to go out and get just any QB to replace Hurts. That would just be another can kicking move. We have to shed cap and get younger and you only do that through the daft. We are in complete rebuild mode and it's going to be at least another year, likely 2, of bringing in unproven talent and evaluating before we can start to think about paying for proven game changing talent. We may even need to trade older or marginal talent where we can get some value. If you're simply looking at what can be done to best improve our chances next year you're guilty of continuing what many are criticizing Howie for up until this year. I don't think they even start Hurts this past year if they weren't in rebuild mode and I suspect Wentz saw all of this coming too and that's why he wanted out. He knew there was no future here. The rebuild meant he was likely going to be moved before we were ready to make another serious run. Hurts was the insurance policy at QB. How long this rebuild takes will greatly depend on how well we draft and that could be Howie's downfall, for those that are looking for it. If Howie can't rebuild this team in next 2 years I think you could see Lurie bring in someone that can finish the job.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Thing3 said:

Howie and Lurie knew they were digging themselves in a hole when they tried to make runs at another championship in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Indications are DP wanted to kick the can down the road again this year to make another run and that is at least part of the reason he was let go. It seems Siri was on board and that's one of the reasons he's here. Lurie and Howie knew we needed to start digging out of this hole. Point is, all of this can kicking by Howie comes to no surprise to Lurie. They were all in on it so Howie is not going to get the blame.

Maybe now people can understand why we can't afford to go out and get just any QB to replace Hurts. That would just be another can kicking move. We have to shed cap and get younger and you only do that through the daft. We are in complete rebuild mode and it's going to be at least another year, likely 2, of bringing in unproven talent and evaluating before we can start to think about paying for proven game changing talent. We may even need to trade older or marginal talent where we can get some value. If you're simply looking at what can be done to best improve our chances next year you're guilty of continuing what many are criticizing Howie for up until this year. I don't think they even start Hurts this past year if they weren't in rebuild mode and I suspect Wentz saw all of this coming too and that's why he wanted out. He knew there was no future here. The rebuild meant he was likely going to be moved before we were ready to make another serious run. Hurts was the insurance policy at QB. How long this rebuild takes will greatly depend on how well we draft and that could be Howie's downfall, for those that are looking for it. If Howie can't rebuild this team in next 2 years I think you could see Lurie bring in someone that can finish the job.

The problem with this entire school of though, if the GM could draft, we would not be in this position.

[Thing3]

1 minute ago, downundermike said:

The problem with this entire school of though, if the GM could draft, we would not be in this position.

I won't disagree with that and it did help deepen the hole a lot more than I think anyone expected. That's also why I say this rebuild could be Howie's downfall. I don't think drafting well was the priority until now. "Keeping the band together" and staying under the cap each year was. Now it's up to Howie to get us out of the hole and it remains to be seen if he can. I don't think Lurie isn't going to be all that patient if Howie struggles getting decent young talent on this team during this rebuild. All we can do is watch it al unfold and that will probably more exciting than the level of play were going to get the next year or two.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Thing3 said:

I won't disagree with that and it did help deepen the hole a lot more than I think anyone expected. That's also why I say this rebuild could be Howie's downfall. I don't think drafting well was the priority until now. "Keeping the band together" and staying under the cap each year was. Now it's up to Howie to get us out of the hole and it remains to be seen if he can. I don't think Lurie isn't going to be all that patient if Howie struggles getting decent young talent on this team during this rebuild. All we can do is watch it al unfold and that will probably more exciting than the level of play were going to get the next year or two.

Drafting well should always be a priority, and if we had, we would not be rebuilding.  

2017, the year we won the Super Bowl, the only player left ( not for long ) is Barnett.  That player should have been a guy getting his second contract, and part of the future.  Then we made the idiotic decision to draft a player who tore his Achilles 3 months earlier, when we could have addressed a position of need, running back, with a Joe Mixon or Alvin Kamara.  Could have also drafted Cooper Kupp.

2018 was a decent draft.

2019 1st round pick lost his job to a 7th rounder and will probably be traded, Sanders would not have been a need if we had not wasted the Sydney Jones pick, JJAWful, bust and the rest are not on the roster. If Sanders does not get a second contract, we will have no players from the 2017 and 2019 drafts on the roster.

2020, Reagor a bust, Hurts may not be here long, and really nothing else to hang your hat on.

We could go into the 2023 season with no players from the 2017, 2019 and 2020 drafts on the roster.

[Thing3]

I think maybe you took what I said out of context a bit. Of course you always want to draft well. But clearly Howie has been given a pass on this by Lurie. What I'm speculating is that now that drafting well is going to be priority #1 to get this team back into contention, Lurie may not be so patient with Howie.

[BayAreaLennie]

On 1/19/2022 at 7:48 AM, Thing3 said:

We are in complete rebuild mode and it's going to be at least another year, likely 2, of bringing in unproven talent and evaluating before we can start to think about paying for proven game changing talent.

I agree with most everything you wrote in that post, but there is a gaping hole at WR opposite Devonta that Howie has to feel like fully evaluating Hurts requires bringing in one more actual NFL level WR.   They have been so feckless at drafting WRs and used so much draft capital there the past few years that Howie has to be gun shy about dipping his toes in again in the draft at that position.  I could definitely see him budgeting for a proven FA talent there with some miles left (like Chris Godwin).

[Thing3]

1 hour ago, BayAreaLennie said:

I agree with most everything you wrote in that post, but there is a gaping hole at WR opposite Devonta that he has to feel like fully evaluating Hurts requires bringing in one more actual NFL level WR.   They have been so feckless at drafting WRs and used so much draft capital there the past few years that Howie has to be gun shy about dipping his toes in again in the draft at that position.  I could definitely see him budgeting for a proven FA talent there with some miles left (like Chris Godwin).

I'm not going to argue that. There could be some room to bring in a FA. I just don't see any big splashes in FA.

[paco]

On 1/19/2022 at 11:18 AM, downundermike said:

2018 was a decent draft.

Got to give Howie credit.  Given the limited draft capital, I say he knocked it out of the flipping park. 
 

 

Yeah yeah, I know, I’m a Howie super fan, so you know how easy that was for me to post. 

[Procus]

So let's go with the premise that the Eagles have a bad cap situation in 2022.  So what?  What's the biggest impact of that?  Probably not the best time for a big splash in free agency right now.  Most likely, the biggest impact of all of this would be to limit the ability to extend young good players already on the roster.  But all in all, I don't think we're looking at something that will have a big impact on a squad that's in the middle of a minimum 2 year rebuild.

[Infam]

Hahaha

Some just never learn.

[Thing3]

23 hours ago, BayAreaLennie said:

I agree with most everything you wrote in that post, but there is a gaping hole at WR opposite Devonta that Howie has to feel like fully evaluating Hurts requires bringing in one more actual NFL level WR.   They have been so feckless at drafting WRs and used so much draft capital there the past few years that Howie has to be gun shy about dipping his toes in again in the draft at that position.  I could definitely see him budgeting for a proven FA talent there with some miles left (like Chris Godwin).

I thought about what I said a bit more and to clarify, I believe there could be room to bring in a FA if the price is right. It's making trades that cost us picks that would shock me. One option could be to upgrade a position somewhere via free agency at the expense of the cap and then unload someone else for a draft pick. There are moves that could be made if the opportunity arises that are outside of the draft.

[kiwieagle]

20 hours ago, paco said:

Got to give Howie credit.  Given the limited draft capital, I say he knocked it out of the flipping park. 
 

 

Yeah yeah, I know, I’m a Howie super fan, so you know how easy that was for me to post. 

That draft is great between Goedert and Mailata alone. Then you have Maddox and Sweat both on second contracts and will be starters and/or contributors for a long time. Even Pryor gave us value for a few years, brought a pick back and has taken a step forward this year with Indy. All from only 5 picks

[Random Reglar]

On 1/17/2022 at 2:27 PM, EazyEaglez said:

The cap is a nightmare. The Eagles can not afford to give up picks for some veteran quarterback. They really need to replace these old guys with younger players. This team is in cap hell. 

The Eagles have troubles because they've given so much in bonuses that have to hit the cap at some time.  I guess you just don't want all these players to retire at the same time. 

[Random Reglar]

On 1/17/2022 at 5:06 PM, EazyEaglez said:

Russell Wilson’s 2022 Cap number is 37 mil. Does anyone truly realize how much restructuring Howie would have to do just to get him under the cap not to mention the draft capital he would have to give up just to get him? People need to start recognizing this team would be making a mistake going down that path. 

Well, the Eagles understand that.

People need to recognize that Rookie 2nd round draft pick QB, getting paid nothing,  is extremely good when he takes the Eagles to the playoffs.  Or,  those people really don't need to recognize at all.

[Random Reglar]

On 1/18/2022 at 9:28 AM, Godfather said:

I agree. Spend the money on a legit wr. 1 year cheap deals on s and cb

I hadn't noticed it, and it hasn't been talked about here much,  but the Eagles have Smith playing X despite the fact that he's 6'0 170.  He has to deal with press man from the X, and at that size. 

The Eagles need a big X,  like JJAW, but one who doesn't drop key passes on the rare occasions he gets thrown to.   Smith should be a Flanker Back / Z.   Reagor should be a benchwarmer.  And I guess JJAW should go.  The Eagles could get that 6'3+ 220+ WR in free agency or through the draft.   Needs to be better than JJAW.    Smith will be even better at Z instead of X.

[Random Reglar]

On 1/18/2022 at 12:02 PM, Dawkins 20 said:

Brooks really shouldn't be going anywhere. He's been a walking bandaid lately, but cutting him to save $3.7m seems kinda stupid. His potential upside is worth way more than that, health be damned.

The Eagles have a lot of excellent oliners who are being paid a lot, and who have bonuses that accelerate to the cap whenever it is they leave.

It seems that,  because these oliners are good,  the Eagles should just live with the fact that having expensive but good oliners is the thing that will either make it work, or not.   Most team have olines that are worse than the Eagles.   They will then spend money to improve their olines.   The Eagles are set there, they don't have oline problems that they have to spend new money to fix. 

[BayAreaLennie]

11 hours ago, Thing3 said:

I thought about what I said a bit more and to clarify, I believe there could be room to bring in a FA if the price is right. It's making trades that cost us picks that would shock me. One option could be to upgrade a position somewhere via free agency at the expense of the cap and then unload someone else for a draft pick. There are moves that could be made if the opportunity arises that are outside of the draft.

Yep.  E.g., I have seen speculation that we could trade for Calvin Ridley.  That would really surprise me.  It's not really a crazy notion -- at 27, he probably has another good three or four years left -- but it's hard for me to imagine we would put the best draft pick package together for him when we could target a Chris Godwin, Mike Williams or Allen Robinson without giving up any draft picks.

[BayAreaLennie]

3 hours ago, Random Reglar said:

People need to recognize that Rookie 2nd round draft pick QB, getting paid nothing,  is extremely good when he takes the Eagles to the playoffs.  Or,  those people really don't need to recognize at all.

I think what a lot of people fail to appreciate is that the success of the rest of the running game owes a lot to Hurts presence.  It is risky for opposing defenses to stack the center of the line of scrimmage to stop the run because Hurts can tuck the ball and head for a sideline and get a big gain.  So yeah, he has not proven he can be the kind of effective passer you really want your QB to be, but he has shown he can be a reasonably effective quarterback overall.  If he improves at all in the passing area from year 1 of being the starter to year 2 -- and I concede that the jury is completely out on that, but he would not be the first QB to do that -- he could potentially take a step from merely a middle of the pack starting QB to an upper echelon QB.

[MillerTime]

On 1/18/2022 at 7:31 PM, MillerTime said:

These are the numbers if Brooks retires Post June 1st. 

2022: 5,939,235 million in dead cap

2023: 9,797,000 million in dead cap

Cap savings:
2022: 13,500,000, won’t be available till june 1st, can be used on rookies and roll over

2023: 13,700,000. 

2024: 15,500,000

Meaning we are getting more money back then we originally had in each year. We are getting the value back from Brooks because Dickerson is on a rookie contract and he is playing excellent. Which means we are getting production from the position. They will need a backup guard who will ultimately make league minimum. We can upgrade a different position now where we aren’t getting production. 

Don’t let @downundermike scare you with his dead cap number.

(The Eagles can restructure Brooks and then designate him as a june 1st retirement and use some money before June 1st if they want to)

Nailed it😎

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, MillerTime said:

Nailed it😎

You didn't nail anything.  They are not restructuring his deal again.  That ship has sailed.  He will retire after June 1st, splitting the hit over 2022 and 2023.  There will still be dead cap hits both years.  6 million in 2022, and 4.3 in 2023.

The other thing people never consider, is you are now looking to replace one of the best in the game.  A draft pick won't be that good, no one on the roster is that good.  If you want to replace him with someone is good, you are paying premium $$, and then adding that to the dead cap hit at that position.

[MillerTime]

2 minutes ago, downundermike said:

You didn't nail anything.  They are not restructuring his deal again.  That ship has sailed.  He will retire after June 1st, splitting the hit over 2022 and 2023.  There will still be dead cap hits both years.  6 million in 2022, and 4.3 in 2023.

The other thing people never consider, is you are now looking to replace one of the best in the game.  A draft pick won't be that good, no one on the roster is that good.  If you want to replace him with someone is good, you are paying premium $$, and then adding that to the dead cap hit at that position.

We already replaced him with Dickerson.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, MillerTime said:

We already replaced him with Dickerson.

Dickerson has been playing left guard, and if Kelce retires Seumalo or Dickerson are probably moving to center, and the other is staying at LG.   So still need a replacement for Brooks at RG.

[MillerTime]

10 minutes ago, downundermike said:

Dickerson has been playing left guard, and if Kelce retires Seumalo or Dickerson are probably moving to center, and the other is staying at LG.   So still need a replacement for Brooks at RG.

We need to same amount of replacements as we did before. Dickerson is a starting guard or center. It’s not an extra cost. We always had to replace Kelce.

We also just went to 25M in cap space for 2022 and saved cap space in 2023 and 2024. And you were running around here posting about his dead cap over and over😂😂😂

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, MillerTime said:

We need to same amount of replacements as we did before. Dickerson is a starting guard or center. It’s not an extra cost. We always had to replace Kelce.

We also just went to 25M in cap space for 2022 and saved cap space in 2023 and 2024. And you were running around here posting about his dead cap over and over😂😂😂

There is still dead cap hits.  Eagles currently have 22 million in dead cap for 2022.  Now you add Brooks as a post June 1, you are up to 28 million in dead cap.  If Kelce also retires, you are then adding another 4.5 million dead, totaling 32.5 million dead in 2022.

The 2022 dead cap calculation also does not yet include all the dummy deals.  You have dead cap hits coming of 7.2 million ( Barnett ) 2.1 million ( McLeod ) 2.4 million ( Anthony Harris ) 1.1 million ( Kerrigan ) 1.5 million ( Nelson )

Adding that to the 32.5 million dead if Kelce also retires, Eagles are looking at potentially 46.8 million dead cap.  41.3 million if Kelce stays.