Jalen Hurts - shoulder sprain injury; expected for playoffs

[eagle45]

I'll end my Hurts argument with this...despite what some may think, I really do want him to succeed.  By succeed, I mean SB winning, MVP type QB.  Because if you aren't at that level as a QB, you really aren't succeeding.

And while I do genuinely want that for Hurts, I am convinced he lacks that kind of upside.  It's a passing league.  Most QB prospects fail.  It's very early for Hurts.  But why is our guy, our lottery ticket for a franchise QB...someone who lacks both passing talent and passing sophistication?  That's seriously who we are going to hitch our wagon to for the next few years?  I do want him to do well.  I just wish our guy was ANY of the other prospects that teams have committed to.

[eglz1]

5 minutes ago, Swoop said:

  1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

He is better than Minshew in many of the important ones, which is the point of this discussion.

For starters, do you feel that two game's worth of stats - one of which was mostly backups - for Minshew vs. 14 (I think) for Hurts makes for a fair comparison? I'm pretty sure that using Minshew's stats from Jax would raise the eyebrow of any knowledgeable statistician.

[eagle45]

Let's just look at every team in the NFL.

I won't list them one by one.  Basically every team in the NFL has 1 of 3 types of QBs: a QB that is better than Hurts, a QB that is a better prospect than Hurts ever was regarded as, or a QB they will actively try to upgrade in the next year.

Every single QB that you can make a rational argument that Hurts is better than...probably won't be starting in the NFL 1 year from now.

[Swoop]

11 minutes ago, eglz1 said:

For starters, do you feel that two game's worth of stats - one of which was mostly backups - for Minshew vs. 14 (I think) for Hurts makes for a fair comparison? I'm pretty sure that using Minshew's stats from Jax would raise the eyebrow of any knowledgeable statistician.

It probably would. I've addressed this previously, though: 

On 5/23/2022 at 9:58 AM, Swoop said:

Oh, forgot to mention: 

In 30 games (19 starts) Hurts has a total of 5,343 yards with 35 total TDs and 13 INT. His completion percentage is 59 on his career. His TD% is 3.8 and his INT% is 2.2. He has a QB rating of 84.7 and a QBR of 41.15

In 27 games (22 starts) Minshew has a total of 6,487 yards with 42 total TDs and 12 INT. His completion percentage is 63.2 on his career. His TD% is 4.8 and his INT% is 1.4. He has a QB rating of 93.9 and a QBR of 49.7

So yeah, pretty obvious that Minshew over three less games (though, 3 more starts) is better in every way aside from strictly running the ball. It's not close. 

Those totals are taking rushing yards and rushing TDs into consideration, too. 

So I'm curious what the "many" things Hurts does better are. Strictly in terms of running and running alone, sure. That's really it.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

28 minutes ago, Swoop said:

Such as? 

I'm not talking about running, either.

These are calculated to be the most relevant Qb stats correlating to a team’s chance of winning the football game:
 

https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/

 

Jalen 2021 EPA: 65.7

Minshew 2020 EPA: 31.7

Minshew 2019 EPA: 41.8

 

Jalen 2021 QBR: 48.5 

Minshew 2020 QBR: 44

Minshew 2019 QBR: 44

 

Jalen ANY/A 2021: 6.35

Minshew ANY/A 2020: 6.23

Minshew ANY/A 2019: 6.44

 

Jalen 2021 Pass EPA: 36.4

Minshew 2020 Pass EPA: 24.9

Minshew 2019 Pass EPA: 21.5

 

Jalen 2021 PFF: 80.8

Minshew 2020 PFF: 67.8

Minshew 2019 PFF: 70.5

[Aerolithe_Lion]

33 minutes ago, eglz1 said:

For starters, do you feel that two game's worth of stats - one of which was mostly backups - for Minshew vs. 14 (I think) for Hurts makes for a fair comparison? I'm pretty sure that using Minshew's stats from Jax would raise the eyebrow of any knowledgeable statistician.

Of course not. He had 60 total pass attempts last year. 1 50yd TD or 1 pick-6 dramatically changes his overall line. Far too small a sample size.

I see your point in using Jacksonville as being not comparable, but the same can be said in both instances for showing Gardner has ever been better.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

2 hours ago, ThinkGreen said:

Garbage time stat king.

Prescott’s got him beat in that department by miles. Remember the season he was on pace for 6000 yards because he was getting blown out every week?

[Iggles_Phan]

12 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

These are calculated to be the most relevant Qb stats correlating to a team’s chance of winning the football game:
 

https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/

 

Jalen 2021 EPA: 65.7

Minshew 2020 EPA: 31.7

Minshew 2019 EPA: 41.8

 

Jalen 2021 QBR: 48.5 

Minshew 2020 QBR: 44

Minshew 2019 QBR: 44

 

Jalen ANY/A 2021: 6.35

Minshew ANY/A 2020: 6.23

Minshew ANY/A 2019: 6.44

 

Jalen 2021 Pass EPA: 36.4

Minshew 2020 Pass EPA: 24.9

Minshew 2019 Pass EPA: 21.5

 

Jalen 2021 PFF: 80.8

Minshew 2020 PFF: 67.8

Minshew 2019 PFF: 70.5

PFF?    

I thought you wanted to talk about stats not crystal balls.

[Aerolithe_Lion]

22 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

PFF?    

I thought you wanted to talk about stats not crystal balls.

The reaction to that PFF grade only furthers the indictment of passer rating

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

The reaction to that PFF grade only furthers the indictment of passer rating

Here is the glaring omission in this discussion, Hurts put up his numbers with a top 3 OL, and top 3 running game.  Minshew put up comparable numbers on the worst team in the league.

[Iggles_Phan]

1 hour ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

The reaction to that PFF grade only furthers the indictment of passer rating

Does it though?  

[Aerolithe_Lion]

28 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Does it though?  

In that PFF is shown to have a similar-to-more-reliable impact on QB’s winning football games.

The biggest difference between the two is context. PFF attempts to account for as much as possible, whether or not you approve of their system. Passer Rating openly ignores context.

Tony Romo and Dak Prescott are two of the greatest QBs we’ve ever seen when context doesn’t matter.

[Iggles_Phan]

1 minute ago, Aerolithe_Lion said:

In that PFF is shown to have a similar-to-more-reliable impact on QB’s winning football games.

The biggest difference between the two is context. PFF attempts to account for as much as possible, whether or not you approve of their system. Passer Rating openly ignores context.

Tony Romo and Dak Prescott are two of the greatest QBs we’ve ever seen when context doesn’t matter.

Nah.  I remember when they ranked a QB highly that was pulled at halftime for being ineffective.  Believe what you want though.  PFF is a punch line.

I didn't mention passer rating, but PFF...  

[Aerolithe_Lion]

9 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

Nah.  I remember when they ranked a QB highly that was pulled at halftime for being ineffective.  Believe what you want though.  PFF is a punch line.

I didn't mention passer rating, but PFF...  

The previous poster did, as to why I offered alternate stats. Nothing worse than passer rating. You can get blown out by 30 points and crush the other QB in passer rating. It may have been useful to see that Steve Young is way better than Troy Aikman in the early 90’s, but It doesn’t tell you anything in today’s game

[brkmsn]

When they were just starting out years ago, PFF was a joke. They have since become a lot more reputable. They have actually become the go to source for NFL statistical analysis. They are sited by just about every source on just about any topic related to players or teams. 

[greend]

And the war continues. 

[Thrive]

10 minutes ago, greend said:

And the war continues. 

It’s beyond dead horse territory but there’s nothing going on in the football world right now…so here we are.

[Shalodeep]

10 hours ago, brkmsn said:

When they were just starting out years ago, PFF was a joke. They have since become a lot more reputable. They have actually become the go to source for NFL statistical analysis. They are sited by just about every source on just about any topic related to players or teams. 

But when we post the PFF stats showing he is the worst deep ball QB in the league.....

[ManchesterEagle]

18 hours ago, eagle45 said:

The path to a SB for a QB who can't pass for those 300 yards in a shootout is a murky, poorly travelled one.

Jackson is a better runner with a more talented arm than Hurts and his inability to hang in the passing game has doomed the Ravens time and time again.  We are trying to see this through with a less talented version of Jackson when the original copy isn't nearly good enough.

Look I get the concerns, I have some of them too. 

But Hurts and the Eagles aren’t defined by the playoff failures of Jackson and the Ravens.

Different coaches/different teams. Plus Jackson has never had the weapons that Hurts has this year.

If Hurts doesn’t take a fair step up this year, the Eagles move on. He has a much better set of WRs this year and has another year in the system. Who is to say he will still run as much. 
 

[eglz1]

1 hour ago, ManchesterEagle said:

Look I get the concerns, I have some of them too. 

But Hurts and the Eagles aren’t defined by the playoff failures of Jackson and the Ravens.

Different coaches/different teams. Plus Jackson has never had the weapons that Hurts has this year.

If Hurts doesn’t take a fair step up this year, the Eagles move on. He has a much better set of WRs this year and has another year in the system. Who is to say he will still run as much. 
 

If he hasn't learned what to look for, he probably will still run too much. I can believe improving physical skills in one offseason, I'm not sure about the mental/processing part of the game. Any of us revert to what we first learned and what has worked for us in the past when under stress.

[Eaglesfandan]

13 hours ago, brkmsn said:

When they were just starting out years ago, PFF was a joke. They have since become a lot more reputable. They have actually become the go to source for NFL statistical analysis. They are sited by just about every source on just about any topic related to players or teams. 

In 2010 PFF had Desean Jackson ranked as the 83rd best WR in the NFL.  Some niners fan told me, "Oh you're just mad because he is ranked that low," to which I replied, "Busllsheet name the other 82 that are better than he is." 

Complete silence/crickets. 

[ManchesterEagle]

5 hours ago, Shalodeep said:

But when we post the PFF stats showing he is the worst deep ball QB in the league.....

I would agree with that, his deep ball was horrible last year. Needs to improve in a big way.

But Hurts Haters also ignore his overall PFF rating, 3rd down efficiency and any other stat which might suggest he is not a terrible QB.

[Shalodeep]

2 minutes ago, ManchesterEagle said:

I would agree with that, his deep ball was horrible last year. Needs to improve in a big way.

But Hurts Haters also ignore his overall PFF rating, 3rd down efficiency and any other stat which might suggest he is not a terrible QB.

I said before he is decent on third down and great at protecting the ball. Problem being for is much of that is based around something that isn't sustainable and that's his mobility. His biggest hurdle this year is anticipation. If he gets better at just letting it rip, he may become a good qb. Not something to be excited about, but someone you can start until the exciting player comes around aka an Alex Smith type 

[brkmsn]

5 hours ago, Eaglesfandan said:

In 2010 PFF had Desean Jackson ranked as the 83rd best WR in the NFL.  Some niners fan told me, "Oh you're just mad because he is ranked that low," to which I replied, "Busllsheet name the other 82 that are better than he is." 

Complete silence/crickets. 

They weren't a credible source back then. They were trying to become what they are today, but were selling their name with more opinion pieces than statistical analysis. It wasn't until Collinsworth jumped on board that they really started turning things around.

8 hours ago, Shalodeep said:

But when we post the PFF stats showing he is the worst deep ball QB in the league.....

Remind me where I laughed at PFF being a source. It seems, based on your words and the post I quoted earlier, that it's your own (side in the debate) that are using it to strengthen your position and then balking at PFF when it doesn't align with your narrative. 

[dawkins4prez]

Hurts is gonna have a big year.