EMB Blog: 2021 Offseason

[Saltpeter]

21 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

 

Or, are we here because of the failed moves of the likes of: extending Alshon (not the 2018 extension, the 2019 extension... Howie has been kicking that one for a while now... even restructured him a 3rd time just to make the release easier).   The Malik Jackson contract (signed after 2018 season), the Desean Jackson contract (after 2018), Golden Tate trade (2018 mid-year), excruciatingly bad drafting, extensions for aging players who are more prone to injury (Extended Brooks and Johnson before the conclusion of the 2019 season... and both are reaching the end of that plateau where you start to see diminishing returns, but Howie extended them both... while BOTH had 2 more years to go on their contract, AND paid them both at the HIGHEST level for BOTH at their respective positions).  

How can you have these strong opinions about the cap and still fight for Carson at every turn? The $35 million albatross on the cap this year is from a "franchise QB"  who played like the worst starter in the league.

[Iggles_Phan]

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

To whom. That's what you're missing.

It take two to tango and to make trades. Trades are usually made b/c each party has different valuations/goals so there's an optimal solution that at least ex ante, benefits both parties.

A 2022 1st is worth more than a 2021 2nd to Howie, but it may be worth less to someone who needs to draft a player to win now.

Sure.  That's why he makes the deal.   Let me know when ANY team has EVER traded a pick in this season for a pick in the next draft in the same round.     Find me a single example of that.   And please, if Howie were to trade the 2021 2nd round pick this year for a 2022 2nd round pick, I look forward to you tying yourself in knots to defend it, even though it breaks all NFL precedence.  

 

Here, I'll give you a head start... given the nature of the 2021 NCAA season, the scouting is no good, so they will have a better read on the prospects and so they would be better off trading all of the picks for 2021 to 2022, even if it means losing value in the process.  And since Howie is under no pressure to win now, it would be better to add less talent for 2021.  They really should then trade all the 2021 picks for 2023, because that's when they can be ready to compete again.  So, trade that 2021 2nd round pick for a 2023 2nd round pick directly.  It's better.

[Iggles_Phan]

 

9 minutes ago, Saltpeter said:

How can you have these strong opinions about the cap and still fight for Carson at every turn? The $35 million albatross on the cap this year is from a "franchise QB"  who played like the worst starter in the league.

Seems you missed the last paragraph.   

35 minutes ago, Iggles_Phan said:

So, when I come with facts, don't come with nonsense.   The issue is that there is accountability for everyone but Howie.  Doug... gone.  Schwartz... gone.  Wentz... gone.  Where's Howie?   Masterminding more can kicking.       Yeah... its old.  But, its still happening.  If you don't like reading about it, put your head back in the sand, and put me on ignore.

[Freshmilk]

53 minutes ago, bpac55 said:

I get that and again, that's why I posed the other guys who compare.  Let's say his cap hit is $8 million instead of a vet who could produce the same at $2 million.  Couldn't that $6 million go towards a different player?  I'm sure the cap hit will be lower this year and all but that's the way I'm looking at it.  

Until we know that a player is worth building around/draft players to build around or sign above average FA, I think 1-year vet deals make sense.

Maybe Barnett is a building piece, I don't know but I also don't think he is.  I think he's completely average and that's a lot of coin to throw at him when the same production can be had at a fraction of the cost.

This is the boat I am on.  But maybe the Wide 9 doesn't maximize Barnett's skill set and the new scheme will allow him to blossom.  If they extend him or simply keep him for the season at 10 million this is what I will hope for.

[Ace Nova]

23 hours ago, austinfan said:

He gambled and lost. That was the strategy, same as the Saints. Some bad decisions, a decade's worth of bad injury luck in 3 years.

The 2017 team wasn't built for the long haul, it was a quick turnaround from the mess Chip left behind him, but needed either a re-load in 2018 (unthinkable coming off a SB), or a rebuild in 2019 or 2020. If you know you're going to have to rebuild in a few years, do you just muddle along at 8-8  or "go for the gold?" If Howie doesn't load up on dead money from restructures, not only will he be limited in the FA market, he'll have to let some of his players walk.

If you're rebuilding, what's the point of having lots of cap room to sign FAs to get you to 8-8? And draft #19 next year like the Washington team.

Now if they bring in a lot of kids, and they develop ahead of schedule, then you're 8-8 on merit and have a young, inexpensive team going forward. But that should be a by-product of good player development, not the goal for this season. That is, if Hurts becomes an above average QB, they find 4 or 4 starters in this draft, and so on, that's great. Build on that in 2022 (expect some regression to the mean) then use FA to fill in holes for 2023.

 

Well said.

I understand the frustration of some fans because this past season was a tough one.  It's not easy watching your favorite team go from Super Bowl Champions to bottom 6 in the league, three years later.

The front office made some mistakes (they will tell you they did).  All front-offices make mistakes.  The fact that the Eagles have been contenders for the vast majority of Jeffery Lurie's tenure as owner speaks for itself.  There are only a handful of teams in the entire NFL that have won more games than the Eagles have won over the past 20 years. That said,  I think Eagles fans are among the most dedicated fans in the league and the majority of the current "fan rebellion" has been fueled by certain media and social media outlets. 

Prior to the 10th (or so) game of this past season: 

- Jeffery Lurie was regarded as being the best owner in Eagles history and among the best owners in the NFL among most fans. 

- Howie Roseman was also liked by the majority of Eagles fans.  Some fans began to question some of his moves but no one questioned his cap management.

- Doug Pederson was also regarded as a very good coach among the vast majority of fans.  

Losing hurts this fanbase more than most fan-bases because Professional Sports embody the history and culture of Philadelphia.  Although Rocky was a movie, the "underdog" winning theme is the reason Philadelphians wear "Rocky" like a badge on their shoulders.  Philadelphia is sandwiched between New York (The largest and most publicized city in the U.S.)  and Washington D.C.  (The Nation's Capitol, which gets just about as much publicity as New York).  Anyone who grew up in the Metro Philadelphia area knows what it's like being overlooked as a great city since NY and D.C. get the vast majority of the "positive" national news coverage.  Where as Philadelphia always seems to get "negative coverage". (Not just sports but news in general).   

The amount of criticism the city and the people from Philadelphia get on a national level is among the most out of any city in the U.S.  (We still hear about Santa Claus getting hit by batteries.  And what bothers most Philadelphians the most is that Santa Claus wasn't hit by batteries, (Maybe a few snowballs), he was booed for looking like he was drunk.  If it's not Santa Claus, it's Move or the crime rate or corruption or the traffic or the cleanliness, etc etc). 

When you combine all of it, (plus a myriad of other issues) you get the "Philadelphia underdog story".   And that attitude transitions to sports because sports are a way for Philadelphians to "win" against the odds and all of the criticism, etc.  When Philly Sports franchises win championships, it's the same as when a kid gets bullied his whole life but ends up becoming successful later in life.  It's a way of showing the country that Philadelphia is a great city, with good people, incredible history, great food/restaurants and sports franchises.  It brings the city and people from all backgrounds together as "one".  When the city wins championships, the national news coverage regards the city as "Champions" and you finally hear about all the things that make Philadelphia a great city.  It's Philadelphia's version of redemption.

When the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was once again regarded as a "championship city".  We were that bullied kid who sang, "No one likes us...but we don't care"  at the parade with millions of other Philadelphians, as one city united.  So yes, it hurts most Eagles fans more than most other fan bases when it all seems to collapse a few years later, bringing back the negative news coverage for the city, the team, etc. 

What happens next?  Exactly what is happening now.  The fan base, fueled by some of the local sports media, goes on a witch hunt.  It doesn't matter that it's the same organization and people that brought that championship to the city when "mob mentality" takes over.  They want to tear it all down because they need someone to blame for bringing the city down again.  And that leads to some serious revisionist history and 20/20 hindsight vision among a good portion of fans.

The reasons it's not as simple as some fans think:

- The Eagles have been widely criticized for letting good players leave in free agency over the past 20 or so years.  The city nearly had a meltdown when they let Brian Dawkins walk.  Although Brian Dawkins has "forgiven and moved on" there's a good portion of Eagles fans that still hold a grudge against the Eagles to this day.

- The main reason Chip Kelly was bashed was because he let good players leave. (DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, Nick Foles, Jeremy Maclin, Trent Cole, Evan Mathis, Todd Herremans, etc).   And those were teams that did not win a playoff game.

-  Could you imagine the Eagles cutting starting players that helped them win the Super Bowl a month later?  There's zero chance any sort of rebuild could have occured the year after winning the Super Bowl.  I'm not sure how it's even a question.  This fanbase would have walked away (to put it nicely) had they started rebuilding the year after the Super Bowl.  (Not to mention the Eagles would have been the laughing stock of the league since no teams ever start a rebuilding program the year after winning a Super Bowl).

- The Eagles did what every other winning organization would have done by going "all-in".  People act as if getting to and winning a Super Bowl can be done with a flick of the wrist.  Philly fans (out of most fan bases) should know how difficult it is to win championships.  When you have a championship team you may not get that window back again for years.  (Sometimes decades). 

OF COURSE you do everything in your power to keep that window open for as long as possible AND the Eagles (actually) did exactly that.  Had it not been for the myriad of injuries and a dropped pass, this team could have gone back to the Super Bowl in 2018. 

In 2019 they made the playoffs AGAIN after another season of devastating injuries.  Had Wentz not been injured during the beginning of the first playoff game, who knows how far they could have gone? 

Tell me again how they should have started the re-build process after winning the Super Bowl?  Better yet, tell that to the fans and the rest of the 2018 and 2019 teams.  You want to talk about "losing respect" and "being the laughing stock of the league?"....start a rebuild after winning the Super Bowl and see how that works out for you.

And since some fans like using 20/20 hindsight vision, I'll use some of my own.  Let's say they started a gradual rebuild after the 2018 season.  Not a complete rebuild but let a few players go, etc.  They likely miss the playoffs in 2018.  The fanbase, the team, etc at that point would be furious.  (Why would you let this player or that player go after winning the Super Bowl? We could have made it to the playoffs if we still had this or that player, etc).    

After the 2018 season, they go in "full rebuild" mode.  2019 they miss the playoffs again.  By this point, most fans are disgusted with the team and the EMB has gone into full TATERGEDDON mode.  

Let's say they have a influx of young talent and they improve in 2020 but still miss the playoffs.  What now?  Does Pederson stay or go?  What about Wentz?  How happy would he be at this point?  The team literally took players away from him the year after winning the Super Bowl and as a result, the team declined.  This team would likely be in just as bad of a position in this scenario (in terms of team chemistry and fan approval) as it is now, if not worse.  The only benefit would be a younger roster and better cap situation.  

2021 season comes around and the team improves, they make the playoffs but get knocked out early.  If the team is as good as the "Andy Reid era" teams, they could potentially make the playoffs for the next 4-5 years but even as good as they are, they fall short.  The evidence (and statistical history) of winning Super Bowls (without question) states that the Eagles made the right decision by going "all-in" and keeping that window open and rebuilding now vs. rebuilding in 2018.   

As a matter of fact, statistically, the Eagles had a better chance of winning a Super Bowl after the 2017 season by keeping the team together and making the playoffs in 2018 and 2019 vs my "Hindsight scenario" where they miss the playoffs because of the rebuild.  Nothing from a team, city, fanbase or statistical perspective supports a "rebuild after 2018" argument.    I understand why some fans feel that way now but in time, as the team starts winning again, most of the frustration should fade...and we will get back to arguing about run/ pass ratios and Kelly Green Uniforms.  

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, NVeagle said:

One you hear it, you can't get it out of your head.

It is always a funny segment any time it comes up on the Jim Rome show.

[NVeagle]

7 minutes ago, downundermike said:

It is always a funny segment any time it comes up on the Jim Rome show.

https://www.stucknut.com/takebox/id/1aad

[ManuManu]

1 hour ago, RLC said:

It's also a dumb practice. 

Yup. Every time a team traded away a pick for a better pick a year later it’s applauded. I don’t know a single person who is upset by that move, or even meh on it. 

[Nivraga]

1 hour ago, Ace Nova said:

Well said.

I understand the frustration of some fans because this past season was a tough one.  It's not easy watching your favorite team go from Super Bowl Champions to bottom 6 in the league, three years later.

The front office made some mistakes (they will tell you they did).  All front-offices make mistakes.  The fact that the Eagles have been contenders for the vast majority of Jeffery Lurie's tenure as owner speaks for itself.  There are only a handful of teams in the entire NFL that have won more games than the Eagles have won over the past 20 years. That said,  I think Eagles fans are among the most dedicated fans in the league and the majority of the current "fan rebellion" has been fueled by certain media and social media outlets. 

 

Great post - all of it - I just didn't want to quote the entire post.

Regarding Santa Claus - I guess you never heard former Gov Ed Rendell tell this story - he says he was at the game. I don't question that, I just don't have proof. The story goes - 1968 Season - Joe Kuharich last season as HC - probably the worst HC in Eagles history. This was a historically bad season for the Eagles. They were 2-11 going into the final game vs Minnesota. They had a chance at the first pick in the next draft (OJ Simpson) but they were winning. 

There was a huge snow storm the day before, the roads were still badly covered with snow and the stands were not even close to being cleared. The "scheduled" Santa Claus was stuck in North Jersey. So the Eagles PR guy found a fan dressed as Santa in the stands. IIRC Governor Rendell said he doesn't know how the snowball throwing started - I wouldn't be surprise if was his friends in the stands - but imagine the stadium with nothing to cheer about that season except possibly the opportunity to draft OJ and this stinking team is ruining that too. And then they get this drunken Santa at half time. The only more embarrassing moment for the Eagles I can think of is the retirement game for Mike Quick and the empty golf bag gift at half time.

[austinfan]

- Every GM makes mistakes.

Licht started his TB tenure by taking Evans #7, Seferian-Jenkins #38, Charles Sims #69.

Then in 2015, Winston with the #1 pick, ate least we got 3 playoff runs and a SB out of Wentz.

In 2016 he took Spence #39, and a kicker, Aguayo #59, a pick that makes JJAW look good!

In 2017, Howard TE #19 and Evans S #50. Howard's been OK, but certainly not worth a 1st rd pick.

Yes, he had a very good 2018 draft, but was also picking #12, #38, #53, #63, #94. Odds are Howie will have a very good 2022 draft.

Licht got six years to raise up TB from ground zero, 2013 team went 4-12, didn't have a lot on offense, but two all pro players David (23) and McCoy (24), plus a probowl CB Revis (26), and Barron (24), Foster (24), and Clayborn (25), That a nice young defense.

Howie will have 3 years, by 2023 if there isn't significant improvement he's probably history.

[toughfighter83]

1 hour ago, Ace Nova said:

Well said.

I understand the frustration of some fans because this past season was a tough one.  It's not easy watching your favorite team go from Super Bowl Champions to bottom 6 in the league, three years later.

The front office made some mistakes (they will tell you they did).  All front-offices make mistakes.  The fact that the Eagles have been contenders for the vast majority of Jeffery Lurie's tenure as owner speaks for itself.  There are only a handful of teams in the entire NFL that have won more games than the Eagles have won over the past 20 years. That said,  I think Eagles fans are among the most dedicated fans in the league and the majority of the current "fan rebellion" has been fueled by certain media and social media outlets. 

 

 

i think that's the thing what the eagles do well is that they will not tear this team down and they will go in fa to improve the team, that's the right thing for this especially for the culture of this team, that's the opposite of what alot of bad teams do, they never go in fa and rely just on drafted players and hope they become something which is a bad thing to do which creates a losing culture to the team.

[Original Sin]

2 minutes ago, austinfan said:

- Every GM makes mistakes.

Licht started his TB tenure by taking Evans #7, Seferian-Jenkins #38, Charles Sims #69.

Then in 2015, Winston with the #1 pick, ate least we got 3 playoff runs and a SB out of Wentz.

In 2016 he took Spence #39, and a kicker, Aguayo #59, a pick that makes JJAW look good!

In 2017, Howard TE #19 and Evans S #50. Howard's been OK, but certainly not worth a 1st rd pick.

Yes, he had a very good 2018 draft, but was also picking #12, #38, #53, #63, #94. Odds are Howie will have a very good 2022 draft.

Licht got six years to raise up TB from ground zero, 2013 team went 4-12, didn't have a lot on offense, but two all pro players David (23) and McCoy (24), plus a probowl CB Revis (26), and Barron (24), Foster (24), and Clayborn (25), That a nice young defense.

Howie will have 3 years, by 2023 if there isn't significant improvement he's probably history.

Licht did not call the shots his first 2 years as GM , lovie smith hired Licht , and called the shots

Licht did make the calls under Dirks 3 years

Bruce has the final say these last 2 years

Licht has put a nice scouting department together , and he has a hell of a cap guy in Greenberg 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, toughfighter83 said:

i think that's the thing what the eagles do well is that they will not tear this team down and they will go in fa to improve the team, that's the right thing for this especially for the culture of this team, that's the opposite of what alot of bad teams do, they never go in fa and rely just on drafted players and hope they become something which is a bad thing to do which creates a losing culture to the team.

There will be minimal FA for the Eagles this year.  They are not gonna have any $$ to spend.

[austinfan]

13 minutes ago, Original Sin said:

Licht did not call the shots his first 2 years as GM , lovie smith hired Licht , and called the shots

Licht did make the calls under Dirks 3 years

Bruce has the final say these last 2 years

Licht has put a nice scouting department together , and he has a hell of a cap guy in Greenberg 

Well, you be hard pressed to say his 2016 and 2017 drafts were better than Howie's worst drafts.

And he inherited a lot of top young talent in 2014, which was wasted for the most part.

Howie has a proven track record, the fact that his gamble didn't work out doesn't negate that it wasn't a disaster either, they did go back to the playoffs in 2018 and 2019 with a legitimate shot at going deep into the playoffs, and they were crippled by an unusually high amount of injuries. A little bit of luck and they might have made it back to the NFC championship game.

So people are basically complaining about 2020, which should have been a rebuilding year, and finished with a similar result, a high draft pick. Hopefully the Wentz implosion will result in $35M of cap room in 2022 and a 1st rd pick, along with the trophy.

Now Howie's future will depend on the 2021 and 2022 drafts, and the ability of Sirianni's staff to coach up young players.

But I wouldn't bet against him.

[LeanMeanGM]

8 minutes ago, downundermike said:

There will be minimal FA for the Eagles this year.  They are not gonna have any $$ to spend.

How were you able to interpret 10 run on sentences? 

[Mike030270]

He's young and at a position that gets paid big time but I don't think he's worth a big contract

35 minutes ago, austinfan said:

- Every GM makes mistakes.

Licht started his TB tenure by taking Evans #7, Seferian-Jenkins #38, Charles Sims #69.

Then in 2015, Winston with the #1 pick, ate least we got 3 playoff runs and a SB out of Wentz.

In 2016 he took Spence #39, and a kicker, Aguayo #59, a pick that makes JJAW look good!

In 2017, Howard TE #19 and Evans S #50. Howard's been OK, but certainly not worth a 1st rd pick.

Yes, he had a very good 2018 draft, but was also picking #12, #38, #53, #63, #94. Odds are Howie will have a very good 2022 draft.

Licht got six years to raise up TB from ground zero, 2013 team went 4-12, didn't have a lot on offense, but two all pro players David (23) and McCoy (24), plus a probowl CB Revis (26), and Barron (24), Foster (24), and Clayborn (25), That a nice young defense.

Howie will have 3 years, by 2023 if there isn't significant improvement he's probably history.

That's a scary thought

[E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles]

32 minutes ago, toughfighter83 said:

i think that's the thing what the eagles do well is that they will not tear this team down and they will go in fa to improve the team, that's the right thing for this especially for the culture of this team, that's the opposite of what alot of bad teams do, they never go in fa and rely just on drafted players and hope they become something which is a bad thing to do which creates a losing culture to the team.

Holy Comma Splice, Batman!

[greendestiny27]

3 hours ago, DeathByEagle said:

Lets just say if they do give Barnett an extension, it would be the ONLY current player deal that makes somewhat sense for the future. All these restructures are needed to save cap this year but they are horrible at the same time going forward. At least Barnett would be playing for the team in the future and can grow. 

I want Jordan extended too. Guy is a young pup at OT. This is his last year under contract. Even if he's not a starter he's quality young depth that can still be developed. 

[Alphagrand]

3 hours ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

I don't know why you would include ST in evaluation of a WR.  I'm not going to Big Ben is a better QB than someone because he might be a better LB.  

Because when evaluating a player it’s only a thorough evaluation when their entire skill set is included

[Giddyunc]

Every year around this time there's always talk about various rule changes. One issue that's never discussed, though I think could positively change the game, is communication. I think every single player should be wearing green dot helmets. Instead of having a coach being able to communicate with only one player on the field, let the coach speak to everyone. 

As the league has evolved over the past 20 years or so, it's become significantly more nuanced and complicated. That's why, in my opinion, the big splash plays (both offensively and defensively) happen when the other team has a "breakdown." Old school football was typically won or lost because players were simply better than the guy lined up across from them, or the team simply schemed better than the opponent. Now, the winning team is usually the team that simply makes the least amount of mistakes. Allowing the coaches to communicate with every player would lead to less "blown assignment" plays. 

[NVeagle]

Has Howie been fired yet?

Asking for a friend.....

[RememberTheKoy]

43 minutes ago, Alphagrand said:

Because when evaluating a player it’s only a thorough evaluation when their entire skill set is included

 

Even with Tim Brown's special teams play he wasn't the WR that TO and Moss were.  

[BigEFly]

3 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

1 - having a handle on the pandemic doesn't necessarily mean a 'return to normalcy' in the fall.  The Spanish flu pandemic (which is immediately where I went to look for information on how this might play out) lasted over a year, so the idea that there wouldn't be impacts far beyond the summer was more wishful thinking than historically supported precedence.  

1) Is probably a false guidance.  Yes looking at the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic made solid sense as we dealt with a brand new, respiratory transmitted illness last year.  But let’s look at the difference between 1918 level knowledge and 21st century science.  The Spanish Flu never had a vaccine.  It went away with a combination of herd immunity and probably mutated down in it seriousness.  A virus that kills all of its hosts does not sustainable. With this virus, we have at least three vaccines, probably six worldwide. We also have developed therapies, including the antibiotic cocktails and steroids plus oxygen and intubation etc. treatments that weren’t available in 1918 so the likelihood that we come out of this pandemic similarly to how we exited 1918 is slim and nil, and slim just left the building.  

[Iggles_Phan]

44 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

1) Is probably a false guidance.  Yes looking at the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic made solid sense as we dealt with a brand new, respiratory transmitted illness last year.  But let’s look at the difference between 1918 level knowledge and 21st century science.  The Spanish Flu never had a vaccine.  It went away with a combination of herd immunity and probably mutated down in it seriousness.  A virus that kills all of its hosts does not sustainable. With this virus, we have at least three vaccines, probably six worldwide. We also have developed therapies, including the antibiotic cocktails and steroids plus oxygen and intubation etc. treatments that weren’t available in 1918 so the likelihood that we come out of this pandemic similarly to how we exited 1918 is slim and nil, and slim just left the building.  

I never said it was a 1 to 1 scenario.  The point being, pandemics don't generally just go away in a very short amount of time.   The '6 weeks to flatten the curve' stuff was a great selling point to get people on board with the thought of a 'lockdown'.  A lockdown with no foreseeable end in sight, on the other hand, is far harder to sell.  

So, I'll say that the idea that this would magically go away and lead to a 'normal' fall was misguided.  Nothing hinted at that in the very least.  The airborne nature, the long gestation period, the lack of symptoms while shedding a ton of virus... all of which was known before the Slay trade still makes the Slay trade look even worse now than it would have been in a non-Covid world.  And I was against the Slay trade when that was rumored as the plan B if they couldn't sign Byron Jones.   Of course, there were quite a few other options out there at CB... of course, this was a 'problem' position because Sydney Jones was a failure, Rasul Douglas was a failure, the Darby trade didn't lead to a long term solution, and neither did any of the lottery picks with UDFAs, scrap heap options, etc. or even Avonte Maddux.

[UK_EaglesFan89]

1 minute ago, Iggles_Phan said:

A lockdown with no foreseeable end in sight, on the other hand, is far harder to sell.  

Yep! I can tell you from experience in the UK that a lockdown with no end in sight sucks the life out of you.